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Leading Off:

FL-13: Candidates running in the special election to replace the late Rep. Bill Young were required to file fundraising reports on Thursday, ahead of the Jan. 14 primary, but Republicans were utterly mowed down by Hurricane Alex. Democrat Alex Sink reported raising a mammoth $1.1 million from Oct. 30, when she entered the campaign, through Dec. 25, and she has over $1 million on hand. Republican lobbyist David Jolly didn't exactly do too badly, taking in $338,000, but that haul pales in comparison to Sink's, especially since he has only $142,000 left in the bank.

Jolly, as you'd expect, is spending heavily to win his upcoming primary against state Rep. Kathleen Peters, who raised just $160,000 and has a mere $18,000 in her coffers. (A third candidate, the Allen West-endorsed Mark Bircher, pulled in $35,000.) Peters' burn rate, of course, has been high, too, so not only will Sink be sitting on a huge pile of doubloons, but whoever emerges as the GOP nominee will likely be drained of resources as well.


MT-Sen: The headline here is a bit overblown, but this piece is not a positive one for Lt. Gov. John Walsh, who is running for the Democratic nomination for Montana's open Senate seat. In a 2010 report, the Army's inspector general said that Walsh used his position as adjutant general of the Montana National Guard to pressure subordinates into joining a private lobbying organization called the National Guard Association of the United States (NGAUS), because Walsh was running for vice-chairman of the group. (He was ultimately elected to the post.)

The original report and the article describing it say Walsh engaged in improper activity for "private gain," but Walsh didn't have his hand in the till—it looks like Walsh's aspirations were entirely limited to ascending the leadership ranks at the NGAUS. However, here's an example of an email Walsh sent to further his ambitions:

"I was disappointed to see that you have decided not to support the NGAUS especially after my previous memo outlining the significant contributions of NGAUS over the past several years," Walsh wrote in one such email to subordinates who hadn't joined the group. "I am concerned that as an officer and leader in our organization you do not support my priorities which is to improve the readiness of MTNG which NGAUS clearly does."
I certainly would hate getting an email like this from a superior, and indeed, several officers complained, saying they felt like they were being "bullied" and subject to "coercion." Walsh, in response, is disputing the whole "private gain" notion and argues that the NGAUS helps ensure National Guard readiness through its lobbying efforts.

Will this story matter? It's hard to say. Walsh can argue that he was just looking out for his troops, and if he was kind of a dick in doing so, well, you don't become a National Guard general by being Mr. Nice Guy. We'll soon see how Walsh's opponents react, though. He faces a primary against ex-Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, while Rep. Steve Daines has the Republican nomination all but locked up.

NC-, LA-, NH-Sen: Americans for Prosperity is launching a new $2.5 million ad campaign against three Democratic senators—Mary Landrieu (LA), Kay Hagan (NC), and Jeanne Shaheen (NH)—over Obamacare. All three spots revolve around various attacks along the "if you like it, you can keep it" theme. It looks like Hagan is bearing the brunt of this assault, since $1.4 million of this buy is devoted to her, bring AFP's total outlay in North Carolina this cycle to $4.2 million.

Hagan's also getting it from GOP frontrunner Thom Tillis, who says he is spending $300,000 to air his first ad of the campaign, again on the subject of Obamacare. Tillis speaks directly to the camera to castigate Hagan, saying she "enabled President Obama's worst ideas. She refuses to clean up his mess, so you and I have to clean up hers."

VA-Sen: GOP state Sen. Jeff McWaters, who had briefly considered a bid against Sen. Mark Warner, now says he won't run.


IA-Gov: Former state Rep. Bob Krause, who had for some time been exploring a gubernatorial bid, announced on Thursday that he won't run and will instead back fellow Democrat Jack Hatch, a state senator. Krause did say, however, that he will run for GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley's seat in 2016, though it's always good to be skeptical of these super-early declarations. Krause also apparently took himself out of the running for Iowa' open 3rd Congressional District, too.

OH-Gov: Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune, who started contemplating a run for governor just a couple of weeks ago, has, somewhat surprisingly, decided to go ahead with a bid. Ohio Democrats have long been united behind Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, but Portune seemed to think that FitzGerald's recent stumbles over selecting a running-mate created an opportunity for a second candidate.

That doesn't really seem to be the case, though, as zero elected officials participated in Portune's announcement, and the party establishment is still solidly on Fitz's side. What's more, a recent PPP poll showed the race unchanged, with FitzGerald still neck-and-neck with GOP Gov. John Kasich. Even Portune seems to recognize this, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer: "If I'm wrong, if things really are all locked up and support doesn't materialize, I won't file just to be on the ballot." The filing deadline is Feb. 5.

PA-Gov: Allyson Schwartz (D): $6.5 mil raised in 2013 (incl. $3 mil transfer from congressional committee).


CA-39/40: Goofball.

IA-03: It looks very likely that Secretary of State Matt Schultz will enter the GOP primary for Iowa's open 3rd District, since he's promising "an important and exciting announcement" next week about his plans. Schultz is probably the biggest Republican name considering a bid, though he doesn't have field-clearing star power, seeing as former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young has decided to drop down from the crowded Senate race to run for the House instead. One Republican is declining, though: State Sen. Jack Whitver says he'll seek re-election rather than join the congressional ruckus.

ID-02: The dentists are back! The American Dental Association, one of the odder outside spending groups around, is forking out $22,000 on mailers to support GOP Rep. Mike Simpson, who faces a Club for Growth-backed primary challenge from attorney Bryan Smith.

MA-06: In a new fundraising email for Iraq vet Seth Moulton, the progressive veterans organization VoteVets labels the man he's hoping to unseat in the Democratic primary, Rep. John Tierney, "a corrupt incumbent." That's an ugly, negative move that plays right into Republican attacks on Tierney, particularly since no one has ever produced a single piece of evidence tying Tierney to the tax evasion scandal that sent his wife to prison for a month back in 2011.

And earlier this fall, the House Ethics Committee declined to open an investigation into Tierney's finances. So I don't understand why VoteVets feels the need to "go there," particularly when there's no there there. (Notably, their ActBlue page leaves off any reference to Tierney.)

VoteVets also refers to Moulton as a "progressive," but that doesn't seem to be how Moulton regards himself; rather, Moulton has called himself "fairly centrist." He also considered running as an independent in 2012 (though he did say he'd caucus as a Democrat).

MA-09: Attorney John Chapman, a former aide to then-Gov. Mitt Romney, will run against Democratic Rep. Bill Keating. The 9th is one of Massachusetts' more competitive districts—both Scott Brown and Gabriel Gomez carried it—but Keating handily won re-election last cycle by a 59-32 margin.

ME-02: Bangor City Councilor Joe Baldacci, a brother of ex-Gov. John Baldacci, has decided not to run for Maine's open 2nd Congressional District. That leaves state Sens. Emily Cain and Troy Jackson as the most notable Democrats running to hold this seat.

MT-AL: Shortly after losing his race for Senate in 2012, Republican ex-Rep. Denny Rehberg declared he was finished with politics. But just a few months later, he started expressing interest in a second Senate campaign, after Max Baucus announced his retirement. Rehberg never followed through, but here's more proof (in addition to the beard) that retirement isn't suiting him: He just said that he's "seriously looking" at a run for his old House seat, which is open because Rep. Steve Daines decided to pursue the Senate bid that Rehberg eschewed.

None of the Republicans currently running for Montana's lone congressional district are especially prominent, so a Rehberg comeback could potentially clear the field, or at least render other candidates irrelevant. Democrats are hoping former Baucus aide John Lewis can convert a longshot pickup opportunity, but a November PPP poll showed him trailing all four GOP lesser lights. Against the well-known Rehberg, Lewis would face even steeper odds.

NJ-02: State Sen. Jeff Van Drew says he'll announce his plans about a possible congressional bid against GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo by the end of the month. Attorney Bill Hughes, Jr. (the son of ex-Rep. Bill Hughes) is already running, but Van Drew's indecision is forcing local Democratic leaders to wait before making endorsements. However, it seems like they are happy to take their time, since a half-dozen county chairs recently penned a joint letter praising Van Drew.

NJ-07: PolitickerNJ reports that Clinton Mayor Janice Kovach is gearing up to run against GOP Rep. Leonard Lance, though that's only according to unnamed sources, not any kind of on-the-record quote. Kovach also reportedly met with the DCCC last month, but the 7th went for Romney 53-46 and Lance has proven to be a tough opponent, so this race will be very challenging for Democrats. (Clinton is also a very tiny town, with a population of just 2,700.)

NY-01: George Demos (R): $200,000 raised in 4Q, $2.1 mil cash-on-hand (which means Demos, who previously gave his campaign $1 mil, must have given even more).

VA-10: Outgoing state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli was mentioned as a possible GOP candidate for retiring Rep. Frank Wolf's seat, but in a new exit interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Cuccinelli reaffirmed that he's "not running for anything for a while."

Other Races:

NY State Senate: A second Republican-held state Senate seat has opened up on Long Island, this time thanks to Charles Fuschillo, who has resigned to head up an Alzheimer's charity. According to our preliminary calculations, Fuschillo's 8th District went for Barack Obama 56-43 in 2012, meaning the seat is very winnable for Democrats. The party also has a chance for a pickup in the 3rd District, because state Sen. Lee Zeldin is running for Congress.

Grab Bag:

Census: The Census Bureau is out with new population estimates (measuring the size of the country as of July 1, 2013), and they largely show a continuation of the same patterns: population losses in the Northeast and Midwest, counterbalanced with gains in the West and South.

We can cut the data a few different ways to get a sense of the reapportionment picture (which Sean Trende does as well). The following table shows a few different scenarios, depending on how you want to model the growth from here until 2020 (only states with projected changes are shown):

Projected in 2020 Using:
State In 2010 In 2013 10-13 Growth 11-13 Growth 12-13 Growth
California 53 53 54 53 53
Colorado 7 7 8 8 8
Florida 27 27 28 28 28
Illinois 18 18 17 17 17
Michigan 14 14 13 13 13
Minnesota 8 7 7 7 8
Montana 1 1 1 2 2
New York 27 27 27 27 26
North Carolina 13 14 14 14 14
Ohio 16 16 15 15 15
Pennsylvania 18 18 17 17 17
Rhode Island 2 2 1 1 1
Texas 36 36 38 38 38
Virginia 11 11 12 12 12
West Virginia 3 3 2 2 2
If reapportionment were to happen today, only one seat would change hands: Minnesota would lose its eighth seat, while North Carolina would gain a 14th seat. However, if you project forward to 2020, we see a few more changes. In the simplest formulations, we can use the growth rates from 2010 through 2013; from 2011 through 2013; or from 2012 through 2013. Regardless of method, we see (largely) the same changes: Texas gains two seats; Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia each gain one seat; and Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia each lose one.

There are a few states right on the edge, with different projected numbers of seats based on which model you use: California and Montana may each gain a seat, while New York may lose a seat, and Minnesota may yet hang onto its eighth seat.

Of course, there's plenty of time left before the next Census and all of this is subject to change, but these early estimates give us a sense of what's to come. But a good question to ask is how would reapportionment in 2010 have looked based on the 2003 population projections (using a linear projection of 2000-03 changes to the rest of the decade)?

The answer: slightly different from how it actually turned out. California would have gained two seats, and Michigan and New Jersey would each have kept the seat that they lost. Alabama would have lost a seat, Texas would have gained only three seats, and South Carolina and Washington would not have gained the new seat that each did.

This all makes sense, given the demographic changes—namely, continued migration to the sunbelt—that occurred in the mid-aughts before the recession hit, which wouldn't haven been captured in the 2003 projections. (And Hurricane Katrina, of course, hit in 2005, shifting the balance between Louisiana and Texas.) The Census Bureau knows what it's doing, but unforeseeable events can always throw a wrench into even the best models.

P.S. Despite projections to the contrary, New York still narrowly remains the third-largest state in the nation, but is fewer than 100,000 people ahead of Florida. But given the trends, Florida will surpass New York very soon. (jeffmd)

Ideology: VoteView has published new DW-Nominate scores, the gold standard for measuring the ideology of members of Congress, for the first session of the 113th Congress (i.e., all of 2013). If you're interested in learning more about Nominate, here's a primer.

SeaTac, WA: The ballot measure to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour in the small Washington city of SeaTac narrowly succeeded in November, and then it survived a recount as well. Now, though, it's under attack in the courts, and opponents have won a sizable victory. A judge has agreed that the new law does not apply to workers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport because it's run by the Port of Seattle rather than SeaTac itself, meaning that the wage increase will only affect a quarter of those it was intended to help. Supporters of the hike are filing an appeal.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Elections matter at this point in time... why? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Gotta couple of hours to waste on reality?

    Finché c'è vita, c'è speranza

    by gininitaly on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:10:07 AM PST

  •  ACA- "If you like your plan, you can keep it" (0+ / 0-)

    The ACA web site's software problems were inevitably going to be fixed, and that issue would fade as a campaign issue by November 2014 when fewer people were encountering those problems.  People who tried to get coverage on the web site but could not due to web site glitches will be able to try again and succeed.

    The tougher issue to "repair" is the President's misleading statement that "if you like your plan, you can keep it".  That problem has not been fixed.  The Administration's administrative band aid fix will not succeed because it depends on the supportive actions of other parties - each state's insurance commissioner for example.  Republican state insurance commissioners are not going to help the Obama administration fix this ACA problem.  The press, local news and neighborhood and workplace chats' tales of families being hurt by such cancellations have no easy fix like the web site problems.

    Vulnerable Senate Democrats need to be able to put clear political distance between themselves and the President's misleading "if you like your plan, you can keep it" screwup.  The fact that outside GOP groups are spending millions targeting Senate Democratic candidates on this particular point leads me to think that they have done polling that confirms the hurtful link to the "if you like your plan, you can keep it" misstatements.

    Senate Democrats need to be able to vote on the Senator Mary Landrieu bill (with several Dem Senator co-sponsors) that would legislatively fix the cancellations and threatened cancellations of terminated healthcare coverage plans  - plans terminated contrary to the President's "if you like your plan, you can keep it" reassurances.  Kos described the Landrieu bill as a "win win" for Democrats.  The bill will never become law because it includes consumer protection and information provisions that the GOP House will never support.   So it is a political win for Senate Democrats and Democratic candidates with low risk since it will never become law.

    Senator Reid needs to get out of the way and let Sen Landrieu's bill come up for a vote.  If the Senate Republicans filibuster her bill and won't allow an up or down vote, even better - Landrieu and other vulnerable Senate Dems can still assert that they tried to fix this particular ACA glitch - but intransigent Republicans stood in the way and prevented the fix.

    •  Umm... no. (4+ / 0-)

      The number affected by this "glitch" is under 10,000 by recent reports.  It's a massive media overblown BS, and "addressing" it hurts the stability of the overall ACA program and shouldn't be pushed any further.  Jan 1st has passed and the earth hasn't exploded. What would be the point of the Landrieu bill now, except for sabotaging the entire program 'cos the beltway press is causing a ruckus.

      Stay the course and stop panicking every time a republican screams.


      by LordMike on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:21:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm. So I'm a real rarity. (0+ / 0-)

        I find that very hard to believe.

        For all of this talk about the "fixed" site, we are still unable to get our college student daughter on our new insurance plan.

        Somebody didn't think the  validations through very well at allk -- or the law is insane, ie, will let you keep your child on your plan up to the age of 26 but won't let you put that child on your plan if you buy it through the exchange.

        I find insanity harder to believe than lousy application design, but you never know.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 08:36:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Oh NOZ!!! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, PassionateJus, Aquarius40

      More concern trolling I see.  

      Only problem is only 10,000 people were actually affected.  

      I really wish I had money invested in Depends with all the pant wetting going on around here over 'HUGE' issues which the Dems MUST distance themselves on and in the end  amount to being nothing.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:33:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If they were junk policies... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Aquarius40

      ...then they were rightly canceled.

      It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

      by Rich in PA on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 07:13:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Alex Sink (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, GleninCA, PHScott

    I guess since she's raising cash for a house race then challenging ex Republican Governor Charlie Crist for the Democratic nomination for Governor isn't going to happen.

    Is there going to be a challenger to Crist that has any cash? Or is the general election in place with Crist vs. Scott?

    •  Crist has a Democratic primary challenger (7+ / 0-)

      Nan Rich is running against Crist in the Democratic primary, although, unless Crist's campaigns stumbles before the primary, Crist is probably going to win the Democratic nomination.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:21:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Panicky Democratic Kingmakers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude

        and thus Dem Voters will choose the Republican-turn-Right Wing Democrat Christ over the Economic Progressive Rich because they think that Christ NOT being batshit nuts and an embezzler of Government funds is all that is needed to differentiate one Plutocrat from the other sell the false choice of Plutocracy.  That will not get the 99ers to carve out the time on election day to vote.  Dems have got to get out of the Plutocracy Fallacy if they want the 99ers to do more than answer a phone poll but rather to actually show up on election day.

  •  Have you guys seen any polling on Hawaii Sen? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Don't like the racial sniping between Schatz and Hanabusa but I'm curious how this'll shake out.

    I'd normally be sympathetic to Hanabusa(tho I'm not a fan of late Sen. Inouye [attempts to] bequeath his seat to a hand-picked successor) but I won't back any Dem who supports NSA's domestic surveillance.

  •  Americans for Prosperity ads? (0+ / 0-)

    Does anybody know if their cubic dollar ads against the ACA and some Dems are having any effect or not?

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:26:58 AM PST

  •  Thom Tillis (3+ / 0-)

    He can be beat - his attitude and his bowling over anyone standing in his way with the most drastic NCGA agenda that is pure and simply the ALEC - Koch Bros legislation will be his Achilles heel and Kay Hagen needs to use that against him.  He has no regard for anyone but himself and his monied backers.   He was the ALEC Legislator of the Year.. Use that against him at every turn.

    I have no money to help Sen Hagen but I will work to keep her in DC.  Not always happy with her but ..

    Why do Republicans Hate Americans?

    by Caniac41 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:27:41 AM PST

    •  Tillis losers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Thom Tillis said that the opponents of his far-right agenda are "whining losers", and as a response Kay Hagan is trying to popularize the hashtag #tillislosers, and highlight the people he denigrated. The other candidates in the primary are even worse - one is a Baptist preacher who led the anti-gay marriage amendment, and another one is Greg Bannon, a Tea Partier/Ron Paul type who believes all of the federal government is unconstitutional and hilariously enough was caught plagiarizing Rand Paul's campaign site. There are two more candidates in the primary, so it is realistic that just about anyone could take the top two spots and force a runoff. With some luck, Hagan can stand up to them (although it will definitely be close one way or the other).

  •  "Allen West-endorsed Mark Bircher" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Egalitare, Aquarius40, Stude Dude

    How could Allen West resist endorsing anyone with a name like Bircher?

    Just another underemployed IT professional computer geek.

    by RhodeIslandAspie on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 06:32:58 AM PST

  •  Disconcerting to see.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the potential of several blue states to lose a congressional seat/EV. Rhode Island going to one seat?  UGH

    •  Not that big a concern (6+ / 0-)

      PA, MI and OH are all severely gerrymandered in GOP favor.  So even if they do lose a seat it'll likely be a GOP seat as the Dems are so tightly packed that there won't be any way possible to eliminate them.  If anything the next round of redistricting will be highly favorable in those 3 states.  

      Rhode Island is a D loss and WV will likely be a GOP loss.

      NC and VA which will gain seats are also highly gerrymandered in GOP favor.  If the GOP try to gerrymander the states again with an additional seat, all it will do is dilute the GOP voters even more and being that many of the GOP held seats are 55%-45% or less, and further dilution will result in many of them flipping.  If on the other hand the Dems have control of redistricting well then the GOP is in for a world of hurt there as well.

      TX and CO are gaining seats due to explosive Hispanic growth so while they may try to gerrymander TX a bit more, I suspect that it will increasingly become more difficult to do so with the demographic changing so dramatically.  CO will likely be a tossup.  GOP currently holds 4 of the 7 seas but Coffman is seriously endangered.

      Overall I don't thing this will have that big an effect.  In large part due to the fact that the GOP pushed ridiculously gerrymandered maps in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, OH and TX.  If the Dems reverse only a few of those gerrymanders that will more than make up for the lost seats and may give the Dems control of the House.  The GOP basically bought themselves a 8-10 year window with the ridiculous gerrymanders.  But changing demographics and changing attitudes among the electorate on various issues which were once favorable to the GOP but have swung dramatically will all but ensure that they'll lose power.  The Dems only need 17 seats to gain the majority (16 if Sink wins).  Reversing the gerrymanders in those 8 states will provide the Dems with almost twice that.  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 07:43:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sea-Tac: 1/4 now, the rest we continue... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Aquarius40 organize for.

    Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 07:00:35 AM PST

  •  Blah Blah Blah (0+ / 0-)

    So how likely will we win the district?

  •  Any news from Georgia? (6+ / 0-)

    Michelle Nunn (D) (daughter of Sam) has, I think, a legit chance of taking the Senate seat of retiring GOP Saxby Chambliss. A few genuine nuts are among the candidates for the GOP nomination.

    Jason Carter (D) (grandson of Jimmy) has a harder fight ahead for the Gov seat, but perhaps we'll get lucky and incumbent R Nathan Deal will finally get exposed as a crook.

    I wish we didn't have to depend on family dynasties. But in the deep red territory we have to use every possible angle.

    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

    by HeyMikey on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 07:35:39 AM PST

  •  NC-2: Clay Aiken! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, Woody, GleninCA, naraht

    Yes, THAT Clay Aiken is supposedly considering a run for NC-2!

    Seat currently held by GOP Renee Ellmers, who barely took it from a Dem in 2010.

    Oh man, I hope Aiken runs. That should be a good one to watch.

    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

    by HeyMikey on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 08:19:35 AM PST

    •  That makes three candidates then (if Aiken runs) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Houston Barnes
      Keith Crisco
      Clay Aiken

    •  American Idol contestants... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Any idea how we'd do if we replaced all of the House with American Idol contestants?

      •  Better. Seriously. It's math. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The American Idol contestants are selected via a politically neutral process (singing talent). Thus it is safe to assume that, given 435 American Idol contestants, you'd get a sampling of political views that fairly closely resembles the American population, with most representatives near the center--the classic bell curve.

        OTOH the GOP House majority is chosen by GOP primary voters. (Most districts are safe; indeed the gerrymandering is so extensive that the GOP won a House majority despite getting fewer overall votes than the Dems in 2012 House races.) And the GOP primary electorate most definitely do not group near the center. They are somewhere far to the right on the bell curve. Among those voters, willingness to compromise is seen as a negative. A recipe for gridlock and dysfunction.

        Thus we have proven that replacing the entire House with American Idol contestants would improve the government of the USA. It's a scientific fact.

        You're welcome.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 11:17:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  he has no chance (0+ / 0-)

      This seat is gerrymandered now into a very red district. I guess he would do as well as anyone but it's an unwinnable seat.

  •  John Kasich is in trouble. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, GleninCA, Stude Dude

    He is getting a primary challenger from the right due to his heresies on the Medicaid expansion and safety-net programs in general, and even if he fends it off, there is a third-party candidate polling at 6%. The only good news for him is that FitzGerald has his own troubles.

  •  Poor Mark Bircher (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, PHScott

    He was endorsed by Allen West.

    Jesus loves Republicans, and shares their hatred of homosexuals and Hilliary Clinton.

    by shoeless on Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 08:42:55 AM PST

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