We have no more concerns about future supplies of oil except for all the concerns that we do. As is by now all-too familiar in discussions about the supply of fossil fuels in years to come, what you believe depends on what you choose to believe.
The U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output from shale formations, the IEA said. (links in original)
The International Energy Agency has sounded the alarm about a potential oil supply crunch…. (links in original)
The boom in oil from shale formations in recent years has generated a lot of discussion that the United States could eventually return to energy self-sufficiency, but according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency, production of such oil in the United States and worldwide will provide only a temporary respite from reliance on the Middle East.
[A]n analysis of a few key global oil production factors exposes the unstable foundation upon which hopes for North American oil independence are built.
That clears it all up! We have no more concerns about future supplies of oil except for all the concerns that we do. As is by now all-too familiar in discussions about the supply of fossil fuels in years to come, what you believe depends on what you choose to believe.
But facts and geology are annoying in that their existence, impact, and ramifications aren’t swayed by emotions and preferences and denials. That sucks, of course, but there’s no getting around the truth. Postponing it is an option, but that tactic has a limited shelf-life when dealing with resources which likewise have a limited shelf-life. Changing the meaning of “finite” is another consideration, but….
So who and what to believe?
The IEA, a leading international advisory group to oil-producing nations, has likewise predicted a decline in production by both Russia and Saudi Arabia. That’s rarely good news. The often-quoted chief economist for the IEA, Fatih Birol, offered this take [from the first article referenced/quoted from above] on the U.S. production rise:
‘We do not expect this trend will continue after 2020s….It will come to a plateau and decline as a result of the limited resource base of light tight oil.
Damn! This close to a fairy-tale ending….
If that was enough cold water to toss onto the Happy Talk story, in the second article quoted from above, Mr. Birol also noted that shale resources glowingly-referenced by fossil fuel industry cheerleaders as the production answer to oil supply prayers are “a surge, rather than revolution.” So much for crossing energy supply concerns off the United States’ list of challenges.
The IEA’s executive director, Maria van der Hoeven offered an important additional observation [from the NYT article referenced/quoted from above], echoed by others, that the shale formations which the oil industry is now feverishly working to extract here in the U.S. carry some additional caveats when discussing their long-term impact:
‘Light tight oil is not low-cost oil.’
Industry execs don’t mind that fact. Consumers, on the other hand, aren’t nearly as thrilled. Facts still suck, but they matter.
(Adapted from a recent blog post of mine)