Despite being a solidly Democratic state, New Jersey has an even 6-6 split in its Congressional delegation. This is due to the bipartisan redistricting commission choosing the Republican-favored map back in 2011, when one of our districts was eliminated (two Democrats were put together, with Rep. Steve Rothman losing to Rep. Bill Pascrell). House seats are generally considered very safe in New Jersey, but looking at election results tells us that the Democratic seats are much safer than those held by Republicans.
In addition to 12 House races this year, our newly-elected Senator, Cory Booker, is up for election to a full term. Booker is undoubtedly the most popular Democrat in the state, and he has yet to draw a serious Republican challenger (at this point, it looks like he will be running against a sacrificial lamb who has never held office). Between that and the growing Bridge-gate scandal souring our opinion of the Governor and state Republican Party, this may be the year we can finally break through and pick up a few more House seats.
First, let's take a brief look at the Democratic seats, none of which should competitive.
District 1: This district is made up primarily of strongly Democratic Camden and Gloucester Counties. Longtime Rep. Rob Andrews announced his resignation from Congress this week, setting up an open seat in a district he generally won by over 30%. While Andrews was a fairly effective Representative, he is also a flacky of George Norcross III, the insurance executive who effectively runs the Democratic Party in South Jersey. Within hours of Andrews' announcement, Norcross' brother Donald (a powerful State Senator) was practically anointed the next Congressman. Norcross should have no problem winning the primary or general.
District 6: This district is mostly composed of Democratic Middlesex County, and stretches along the shoreline of Republican Monmouth County. Rep. Frank Pallone, a solid progressive, has held this seat for over 25 years, and it is gerrymandered to protect him. His run against Cory Booker in last year's special primary for US Senate does not seem to have dented Pallone in the state party, and he will continue to win this district until it is no longer gerrymandered around him.
District 8: This is our VRA Hispanic district, taking in the Hispanic portions of Hudson County (including Jersey City), Newark (Essex County) and Elizabeth (Union County). Rep. Albio Sires has held this seat since Bob Menendez became a US Senator in 2006. Sires regularly wins by over 50%.
District 9: In 2012, Rep. Bill Pascrell defeated Rep. Steve Rothman in the Democratic primary for this solidly Democratic seat. The district takes in much of Passaic County (Pascrell's base, including the city of Paterson where he was once Mayor) and Bergen County (Rothman's base). Pascrell won by nearly 50% in 2012 against what was likely the strongest possible challenge the GOP could have put up.
District 10: This is our VRA black district, taking in much of Essex, Union and Hudson Counties. The seat was won by Rep. Don Payne, Jr. last year after the death of his father. The only question here is if Payne surpasses 90% of the vote.
District 12: This district takes in much of Middlesex and Mercer Counties, including Trenton and Princeton. Rep. Rush Holt has held this seat for over a decade, and escaped his loss to Cory Booker in last year's special Senate primary unscathed. Holt, who is both a physicist and political legacy, is deeply popular in the progressive community and holds a safe seat.
Now, on to the Republicans. It is my belief that most of these Congressmen are not as safe as they appear on paper. As the title of this diary indicates, I think Cory Booker could help flip some of these seats if he spent much of his time campaigning with Democratic challengers in these districts, particularly the four seats in North / Central Jersey. As he lacks a serious challenger at this point, he is unlikely to have to worry about his race to the extent one usually would.
District 2: Rep. Frank LoBiondo has held this D+1 seat since 1994, and he regularly wins by huge margins against underfunded and downright horrible opponents (Obama won 54% of the vote here in 2012). The conventional wisdom is that LoBiondo is deeply popular in the district, which scares off potential challengers. This was demonstrated just this week when popular State Senator Jeff Van Drew refused to challenge LoBiondo (Van Drew is coming off of a 20% win in a Republican leaning district). This leaves attorney Bill Hughes, Jr. as the only legitimate opponent. Hughes is the son of William Hughes, who represented the district in the 70s and 80s.
LoBiondo rolled out his campaign alongside Chris Christie just before the Bridge-gate scandal broke, and is facing his first real challenge in years. This is our best opportunity to take this Democratic seat before LoBiondo retires.
District 3: This is the only district in the state which is widely considered competitive. Two-term Rep. Jon Runyan announced his retirement last month, and Democrats already have a strong candidate in Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard. The Republican field is wide open, with self-funder Tom MacArthur favored by the establishment and Tea Party activist Steve Lonegan favored by his massive following (he was competitive against Cory Booker in last year's special Senate election). Both men served as small-town mayors outside of the district, and have recently relocated. Several other Republican names are also in the mix.
The key to winning this district is to shore up the vote in Democratic-leaning Burlington County, while minimizing losses in strongly Republican Ocean County. The political demographics of the district (not the least of which is being broken up by the massive Pine Barren State Forest in the middle) makes it tough to take down an incumbent here. The open seat environment we have this year gives us a great shot at taking the seat, probably the best shot we'll have in the decade.
District 4: This is probably the only district that is truly unattainable for us under any circumstances. Rep. Chris Smith, who won this seat out of nowhere in 1980 due to the incumbent's scandal, is very popular in a district that gave Mitt Romney 54%. His opponent, Angela Gandolfo, is a fine candidate, but she lacks the resources to make any sort of challenge this year. This is easily the state's most Republican Congressional district.
District 5: This is the one that catches people's eye. Rep. Scott Garrett is a far right conservative in a district that Mitt Romney won by just 3%. Garrett beat his do-nothing opponent by just 12% in 2012 (with a Green Party candidate winning 3%), and this time he has drawn a strong challenge in the form of Roy Cho, a Korean attorney. Cho has pulled in 200K so far and has DCCC backing. Unfortunately, that is not enough money, as Garrett has a nearly $3 million warchest.
The district takes in portions of the deep red Sussex and Warren Counties, along with a Democratic-leaning portion of Bergen County. The key to victory here is maximizing the vote in Bergen County while minimizing losses in Sussex and Warren. This is exactly the kind of district that Booker's involvement could benefit, as Cho is going to need a dose of Democratic enthusiasm to pull off a win. With a bit of fundraising and grassroots help, toppling Garrett is within the realm of possibility.
District 7: This district is probably not winnable, but it takes in a portion of the state (Somerset County) that tends to go Democratic in Presidential years, but takes a hard right the rest of the time. Rep. Leonard Lance is a classic Republican hack, but the lean of the district keeps him in office. Janice Kovach, mayor of the small town of Clifton, is challenging Lance. She has yet to raise any money, but is a Booker ally, and the district would benefit from his help.
District 11: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen has maintained a stranglehold on this district since 1994, and won by 19% in 2012. Despite that, Romney won this district by just 5%, and embattled Senator Bob Menendez lost by just 4%. The Democratic challenger is financial consultant Mark Dunec, who has attracted some interest from the pro-Israel community. Dunec likely has little shot at victory in this district this year, but a dose of grassroots organization could make this winnable in the near future. This is an area Senator Booker is very familiar with, and his presence could make things happen.
Many people reading this diary will probably be put off by my reliance on Booker putting his time into these districts to build the party. While I understand the man has a job to do, he is up this year, and will almost certainly face an easy race. Booker clearly has an agenda for Washington, and he will not get it done unless Democrats retake the House. That is why I am imploring Senator Booker and his team to spend a great deal of time this year helping the candidates in these red districts move towards victory. We need 17 seats to retake the House, and there are quite a few off-the-radar opportunities in New Jersey. We need the help of our most popular elected official to make that happen.