Even though this was covered in the DKE section, I think it deserves it's own diary. The 2014 Louisiana U.S. Senate race is looking more like the toss up race everyone was predicting:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's newest Louisiana poll finds that the race has tightened quite a bit over the last six months. In August Mary Landrieu led Bill Cassidy 50/40 and in October she had a 48/41 advantage, but now she's up just a single point on Cassidy at 45/44.
The big thing that's changed over that period of time is Landrieu has lost much of her crossover support from Republicans. Six months ago she trailed by only 42 points with GOP voters at 65/23, but now that's a 63 point deficit at 77/14.
Early attack ads on Landrieu have taken a big toll on her approval ratings. She was on slightly positive ground in August at 46/43, but now faces a -15 spread with only 37% of voters giving her good marks to 52% who disapprove. It's no coincidence that her 52% disapproval rating is almost identical to the 53% disapproval rating Obamacare has in the state, compared to only 33% of voters who approve of it. Similarly to Kay Hagan the early ad blitz seems to have had the effect of creating a strong correlation between attitudes toward Landrieu and attitudes toward Obamacare.
It seems likely Cassidy will be Landrieu's runoff opponent unless another Republican candidate gets into the race. For the primary Landrieu's at 43% to 25% for Cassidy with the other GOP hopefuls Paul Hollis and Rob Maness at 5% and 3% respectively. Neither of them seems to be making much of a charge toward Cassidy, partially because neither is particularly well known with name recognition for each of them hovering around 30%.
There's been a lot of talk among conservatives that they'd like someone other than Cassidy in the race on their side, and we did find one Louisiana conservative who'd be a stronger candidate than him. Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson actually leads Landrieu 46/42 in a hypothetical contest. He has a +26 net favorability rating (45/19) compared to Cassidy's -2 at 24/26. - PPP, 2/11/14
PPP surveyed 635 Louisiana voters from February 6th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
The early attack ads about Obamacare courtesy of the Koch Brothers Americans For Prosperity have taken a hit in Landrieu's image but being that she's the new chairwoman of the Senate Energy Committee, she might have a strong case for voters to keep her in the U.S. Senate. And it's looking like Cassidy is looking more like a sure bet to win the GOP nominee. This was always going to be a tough race but Landrieu's no stranger to tough races. If you would like to donate or get involved with Landrieu's campaign, you can do so here:
http://www.marylandrieu.com/