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Leading Off:

Texas: The Lone Star State held its primaries on Tuesday night—making it the first state to do so this cycle—yielding a batch of mostly predictable results along with a couple of eyebrow-raisers that won't get resolved until the May 27 runoff. Ballot counting proved to be a slow affair, with under a third of precincts reporting when we put the Digest to bed. There weren't too many mysteries left, though, so here's a wrap-up of all the major action so far:

TX-Sen (R & D): On the GOP side, Sen. John Cornyn easily held off lunatic Rep. Steve Stockman, who evidently decided to commit suicide by primary. For Democrats, wealthy dentist David Alameel was flirting with an outright win, though he was in need of a late push to sneak back past the 50 percent mark. If there's a runoff, he might even wind up facing attorney Maxey Scherr instead of LaRouchie nightmare Kesha Rogers, who traded places for the second spot throughout the night.

TX-LG (R): Oof. Incumbent David Dewhurst was getting smoked by state Sen. Dan Patrick. A runoff is probable, but the last time Dewhurst faced one, he got blasted by Ted Cruz. This one looks even more deadly for him. The winner will be the heavy favorite over Democratic state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte in the fall.

TX-04 (R): Nonagenarian Rep. Ralph Hall is headed to a runoff with former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe. The winner is a lock in November.

TX-23 (R): Ex-Rep. Quico Canseco and former CIA agent Will Hurd will likely square off in a second round for the right to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego in Texas' only swing district.

TX-30 (D): Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson once again defeated ex-state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway by a wide margin. This district is solidly blue.

TX-32 (R): Tea partier Katrina Pierson got zero traction against Rep. Pete Sessions, who will win another term in this safely Republican (albeit blue-trending) seat.

TX-33 (D): Freshman Rep. Marc Veasey easily turned back self-funding attorney Tom Sanchez and will cruise to re-election in November.

TX-36 (R): Dentist Brian Babin and businessman Ben Streusand, the only two candidates to raise any real money, will meet in the runoff for Stockman's open seat, which is solidly red.

Senate:

MN-Sen: The Senate portion of that new SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota that had Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton looking solid for re-election also finds Democratic Sen. Al Franken in good shape, too. Franken leads all of his potential GOP rivals by anywhere from 8 to 14 points:

49-41 vs. state Sen. Julianne Ortman

49-41 vs. St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg

50-40 vs. businessman Mike McFadden

49-37 vs. state Rep. Jim Abeler

50-36 vs. Some Dude Monti Moreno

This is yet another one of those under-polled races; in fact, the only remotely recent survey came last October, from PPP. Those numbers were almost identical to these, though, with very similar spreads and Franken at or kissing 50 in every matchup. The incumbent continues to look well-situated, which is why Daily Kos Elections currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

SUSA didn't ask about the GOP primary, but given how little-known all of these candidates are, there isn't much to see. That's confirmed by a new poll on behalf of Citizens United from The Polling Company. The survey shows Ortman leading with a mere 16 percent, while Abeler and McFadden take 8 apiece and Dahlberg just 4. It's not clear whether Citizens United has actually endorsed Ortman, but the memo is written to be as friendly as possible to her. From the looks of the general election toplines, though, it doesn't seem to matter much which Republican faces Franken.

Gubernatorial:

AZ-Gov: It looks like a whole lot of Arizona voters are really determined not to make up their minds yet for this fall's open seat race for governor. What little polling we've seen so far has all shown high numbers of undecideds, including a Monday internal from likely Democratic nominee Fred DuVal. PPP doesn't typically follow this pattern, but their new survey is little different from the rest of the pack. DuVal is little known, with a favorability rating of just 13-14, but the same is true of the entire GOP field. Here's how DuVal fares against his Republican opponents, with their favorables in parentheses:

33-39 vs. Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (15-13)

33-37 vs. Secretary of State Ken Bennett (12-24)

36-35 vs. state Treasurer Doug Ducey (11-20)

35-32 vs. physician John Molina (7-12)

36-32 vs. former California U.S. Rep. Frank Riggs (5-13)

37-33 vs. former GoDaddy executive Christine Jones (9-15)

37-32 vs. state Sen. Al Melvin (4-22)

40-35 vs. former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas (13-29)

While the whole race trades in a narrow band, as Wall Street types might say, the matchups on the edges make sense. DuVal's toughest opponent is Smith, who has a reputation as something of a moderate for his stances on immigration and guns. His weakest, meanwhile, is Thomas, who was disbarred in 2012 for some pretty extreme ethics violations.

But what makes for a more electable candidate in a general election usually has the opposite effect in a GOP primary, and vice versa. Luckily for someone like Smith, the field is incredibly jam-packed, and the race for the Republican nomination, as you'd expect, has barely taken shape:

Bennett: 20
Jones: 16
Smith: 12
Thomas: 9
Ducey: 6
Melvin: 1
Molina: 1
Riggs: 1
Undecided: 34
It's very possible that the ultimate winner could prevail with a relatively small plurality. But regardless of who emerges as the GOP nominee, the general election numbers show that there's a real chance for this contest to become very competitive. Thanks to Arizona's reddish demographics and expected mid-term falloff for Democrats, Daily Kos Elections currently rates this race as Lean Republican. But it's received little national attention so far and could wind up as a serious sleeper.

CT-Gov: Here's yet another Quinnipiac poll where an incumbent governor's job approval ratings are higher than his vote share in head-to-head matchups. In this case, it's Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy of Connecticut, who sports a 48-45 approval score, little changed from his 47-47 mark last June. Here's how he fares against the GOP field (with trendlines in parentheses):

42-42 vs. 2010 nominee Tom Foley (40-43)

44-35 vs. Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (43-36)

43-37 vs. state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (44-37)

44-34 vs. Mark Lauretti

45-34 vs. Toni Boucher

Obviously these numbers aren't good for Malloy, but the problem is that the only other poll all cycle has been from... Quinnipiac. Indeed, Public Policy Polling recently said they "don't have any plans" to go into the state, which means it could be a while before we get any results we can compare these to.

LA-Gov: According to unnamed sources who spoke to news site LaPolitics, wealthy Democratic businessman Jim Bernhard is "strongly considering" a bid for governor next year. Bernhard could tap his considerable bank account to self-fund a campaign against GOP frontrunner David Vitter, but he also declined a challenge Vitter for Senate in 2010, so who knows if he'll follow through this time. And a couple of Democrats have already said they plan to run, including state House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards and Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell.

House:

CA-35: While it may seem like state Sen. Norma Torres is on a glide path to succeed Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod in Congress, she does have some minor league competition from a fellow Democratic elected official, Ontario City Councilman Paul Avila. Avila, however, is not much of a force. He ran in a couple of special elections last year and did terribly, including the race where Torres won election to the state Senate, taking just 3 percent and finishing sixth out of six candidates.

Meanwhile, the National Journal's Scott Bland takes a look at members of Congress who, like Negrete McLeod, have opted to ditch the House in favor of lower-profile elective opportunities. McLeod was pretty explicit in saying that Congress is "just really not the place for me," but she's not the only one. Bland catalogs some other notable examples, both recent and more distant.

CO-04: With sophomore Rep. Cory Gardner making his unexpected Senate bid official over the weekend, the reward for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck's obeisance is proving meager indeed. Buck rather infamously dropped down from the Senate contest to run for Gardner's House seat as part of the duo's backroom switcheroo, but he already has plenty of company in the GOP primary for this safely red district.

For starters, state Sen. Scott Renfroe quickly moved from "thinking about it" to actually running, and he's now joined by Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer and former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Steve Laffey (who very briefly ran for governor last year). State Reps. Frank McNulty, Tim Dore, and Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff are also considering bids.

Two notable Republicans have said no, however: Weld County Commissioner Sean Conway and state Rep. Jerry Sonnenberg.

FL-19: Ex-Rep. Connie Mack ultimately declined a comeback bid after Trey Radel's political career got snowed under, but he's still making his presence felt in the upcoming special election: Mack just endorsed businessman Curt Clawson in the GOP primary.

NY-11: New York's Independence Party, a faux political party with an appealing name that simply sells itself out to the highest bidder, has once again endorsed GOP Rep. Mike Grimm for re-election. Let's see if it sticks, though: Last cycle, the IP also gave its line to Grimm but failed to file enough signatures to get him on the ballot. That's the hallmark of a non-serious organization if there ever was one.

Grab Bag:

Arkansas: Filing closed Monday for Natural State's May 20 primary. In races where no one clears 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held June 10. The state has a complete candidate list available.

In the race to succeed termed out Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, there's not much suspense about who each party will nominate. Former Rep. Mike Ross faces only token opposition in the Democratic primary; former Rep. (and 2006 gubernatorial nominee) Asa Hutchinson should have no difficulty prevailing against businessman and 2010 Senate also-ran Curtis Coleman. The general will be a lot more exciting: Daily Kos Elections rates the contest as a Tossup.

It's a similar story for Senate. Incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor and his Republican challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, are both unopposed in their primaries. Daily Kos Elections also rates the general election as a Tossup.

Three Republicans are competing to succeed former Lt. Gov Mark Darr, who recently resigned due to an ethics scandal. The best known is Tim Griffin, a congressman who made the unusual career decision to retire from the House after just two terms, only to later decide to run for this position (after Darr quit). Griffin will face state Reps. Debra Hobbs and Andy Mayberry in the primary. The winner will face Democratic State Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter.

On the Republican side, there are contested primaries for attorney general, state auditor, and state treasurer. Only one Democrat is running in each of these races. Republican incumbents for secretary of state and land commissioner face no primary opposition, and neither do their Democratic challengers.

Griffith and Cotton are leaving their House seats open, and there will be competitive Republican primaries to replace them. In the Little Rock-area 2nd District, banker French Hill faces state Rep. Ann Clemmer and veteran Conrad Reynolds. The winner will take on Democratic former North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays in a race we rate as Lean Republican. In southern Arkansas' 4th District, energy executive Tommy Moll faces state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman. The winner will face Democrat and former FEMA head James Lee Witt in a contest we rate as Likely Republican. (Jeff Singer)

Nebraska: The second of the Cornhusker State's two filing deadlines passed on Monday. Back in mid-February, all incumbent elected officials running for any office in 2014 were required to file, while Monday's deadline was for everyone else. The primary will be held May 13, and the state has a complete list of candidate filings.

We rounded up who was running for governor and Senate back in February and there have not been any new developments since then. In both contests, the only new names to file were people who had already declared their candidacies. Both races will pit numerous Republicans against one other, while only one credible Democrat is running in each case. Daily Kos Elections rates the gubernatorial contest as Likely Republican and the Senate race as Safe Republican.

There are a few new names for downballot statewide offices. In the attorney general's contest, attorney Doug Peterson and state Sen. Pete Pirsch are joined by former Douglas County GOP chair Brian Buescher and attorney Mike Hilgers in the GOP primary. Two Democrats, Allen Eurek and Janet Stewart, are running here. In the auditor's race, Republican state Sen. Charlie Janssen is joined by Larry Anderson, a staffer for incumbent Auditor Mike Foley, in the primary. The winner will face Democratic state Sen. Amanda McGill. State Treasurer and frequent Senate candidate Don Stenberg has a Republican primary foe; former Omaha Public Power District Director Michael O'Hara is running for the Democrats. Finally, Republican Secretary of State John Gale will only be challenged by a Libertarian.

There aren't any notable new names in the race for any of the state's three House seats. Only 2nd District GOP Rep. Lee Terry faces any serious general election opposition, with state Sen. Brad Ashford, a Republican turned Democrat, set to oppose him. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican. (Jeff Singer)

Senate: In Tuesday's installment in the World of Weird Polling, the Washington Post and ABC have released a national survey with a generic House ballot showing Democrats ahead one point... but also with a strange subsample of states with a Senate race. That leads to a "generic Senate ballot" with an 8-point Republican lead. (Guess which number the legacy media chose to lead with?)

A big problem, though, leaps out right away: That spread leans heavily on Texas. Many of the other biggest states (California, New York, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, all of which Obama carried in 2012) have no Senate race whatsoever. ABC does acknowledge that Texas comprises a hefty 15 percent of the sample—as well it should, since Texas comprises 16 percent of the total population of the 34 states with Senate races this year). However, ABC also points out that if you take out Texas, there's still a 6-point Republican edge in the remaining states.

But that doesn't have anything to do with a huge wave building as it simply does with the fact that the Senate's Class II is up for election this year. The states that make up Class II comprise the most GOP-leaning of the Senate's three classes, regardless of this year's conditions. Indeed, Mitt Romney carried the states with Senate races this year by about 2 percent (34.1 million votes to 32.8 million for Obama). So, while this is kind of a useless poll on its face in terms of predicting actual individual outcomes, it does underscore the simple structural problems that Democrats face in the Senate landscape this fall before even considering national trends. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  TX Senate- D (7+ / 0-)

    David M. Alameel          137,990    47.06%
    Michael "Fjet" Fjetland    12,926    4.57%
    Harry Kim                    25,075    8.93%
    Kesha Rogers           59,718    21.72%

    Shameful.  A total disaster for Dems.

    Be the change you want to see in the world. -Gandhi

    by DRo on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 05:09:20 AM PST

  •  Final totals per Texas SOS (20+ / 0-)

    RACE    NAME            TOTAL VOTES    PERCENT
    U.S. Senator                   
        David M. Alameel         238,599            47.06%
        Michael "Fjet" Fjetland      23,170              4.57%
        Harry Kim                           45,322              8.93%
        Kesha Rogers                110,154            21.72%
        Maxey Marie Scherr            89,731            17.69%

    So David Alameel will be in a runoff with Kesha Rogers.  Primary runoffs tend to have even lower turn outs, so who knows what will happen.

    In other depressing results:

    RACE    NAME               TOTAL VOTES    PERCENT
    Commissioner of Agriculture                   
        Hugh Asa Fitzsimons III         114,945      23.45%
        Richard "Kinky" Friedman    184,971    37.74%
        Jim Hogan                             190,200    38.80%

    Yes, this is a runoff with that Kinky Friedman.  "Sigh."

    And for the worst news of the night:

    RACE    NAME        PERCENT    TOTAL VOTES    PERCENT
    State Representative District 90                   
        Lon Burnam - Incumbent        2,483    48.90%
        Ramon Romero Jr.                2,594    51.09%

    This is a devastating loss in the Texas House.  

    Ramon Romero is running against State Representative Lon Burnam. Romero has nearly no past involvement in the Democratic Party, only bothering to vote in two Democratic primaries in 20 years. Before he filed to run against Burnam, he contributed more campaign money to Republican State Rep. Phil King (the year after King was the chief sponsor of the Voter ID bill) than to all Democrats combined. Romero has publicly denied making the contribution several times, despite official records that prove he made it. Most recently, a school privatization group run by Wall Street bankers from New York, upset with Burnam’s work to defend public schools, has started sending pro-Romero calls and flyers all over the district. - See more at: http://www.lonburnam.com/...

    The Democratic Party stands for equality for ALL, freedom with responsibility, and a civil and just society.

    by TexasLefty on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 05:43:43 AM PST

  •  No TX gov. primary? (0+ / 0-)

    Just curious- didn't see any results for it.

  •  Yikes! The possibility (probability?) of Dan (7+ / 0-)

    Patrick becoming the next LG of Texas is horrifying.  He and Greg Abbott will make Texans yearn for the good old days of Rick Perry.  Houstonians know Patrick for a variety of reasons, none of them good.  He had a fairly long-running sports talk show and one day he had an on-air vasectomy.  He is a buffoon, but IMO a dangerous one.

    ""How long does getting thin take?" Pooh asked anxiously." -- A. A. Milne

    by pittie70 on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 06:13:59 AM PST

    •  There is another Dan Patrick (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pittie70, Aquarius40, dewtx, stevenaxelrod

      who is currently a sportscaster on ESPN.  However, with Patrick being in a similar field (local talk radio and sports) a lot of people think they're the same guy.  For about 30 years from the 1940s to 1970s Texas elected a State Treasurer named Jesse James (that statewide office was abolished after Ann Richards and Kay Bailey Hutchison used it as a steppingstone to the Governorship and Senate respectively).

      Kinky Friedman is not a bad guy.  Like a lot of entertainers he's not an intellectual heavyweight but he attracts the same sorts who loved Jesse Ventura in Minnesota. He operates an animal rescue facility and once toured with Bob Dylan's Rolling Thunder Review.  His songs are satirical and by the standard of our times contain some racist terms especially "They Ain't Makin' Jews Like Jesus Anymore," but that's a lampoon of racism.  However, there's also "Rapid City, South Dakota" which is a sensitive work about a woman taking a bus to Chicago for an abortion.  He caught the political bug and decided to go for Ag Commissioner.  By running in the primary against two establishment types he made the runoff.  Don't despair.  Turnout in runoffs is incredibly low.  Once two candidates in Bexar County (San Antonio) for two different offices pooled their resources and leased ALL the cabs of the largest taxicab company on Runoff Day to carry voters to the polls and they both prevailed.  

      LaRouchites have won local Dem primaries in TX before.  I think in a statewide race however the establishment choice will eaily prevail.

      The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

      by Kangaroo on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:22:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Texas Dan Patrick is a real piece of work. In (6+ / 0-)

        his opinion, the Tea Party isn't radical enough to suit him.  He is just an awful, awful person.

        ""How long does getting thin take?" Pooh asked anxiously." -- A. A. Milne

        by pittie70 on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:52:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dewtx, DRo

          He's Houston's small scale Rush Limbaugh.  He's "Bob Roberts" (Robert Altman movie about a media frenzy), Dana Rohrbacher, Bob "B-1" Dornan, and Sarah Palin all rolled up into one disgusting package.

          The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

          by Kangaroo on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:48:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, he is, and it SHOWS. Which actually gives me (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          texasmom, dewtx

          hope. It'll be him versus Leticia van de Putte, who is a smart, nice, Latino lady. By the time the general election comes around, he will have offended everyone in the state capable of being offended on the grounds of race and sex as well as general humanity. If they come out and vote - she wins. Simple.

          He does have to make it past the runoff first, which actually I think he will, because it's the crazoids who are voting for him, and crazoids ALWAYS turn out, even and especially for a primary runoff. Dewhurst's people will fall off some, and all the people who voted for the other candidates will either not show or else they'll vote for Patrick - they won't vote for the establishment guy.

          •  Whoever wins the Republican LG primary (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dewtx

            absolutely needs to schedule a debate with Leticia van de Putte.  I believe she would more than hold her own - not to mention the fact that the either Republican would likely say something truly offensive about Latinos, women or another broad group of Texas voters.

            The truth always matters.

            by texasmom on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 09:54:19 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Dan Patrick is my State Senator. Sigh! (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod, DRo, TexasLefty

          Disgust and hate can't begin to describe my feelings toward this bottom-feeding piece of scum. He is so anti-Latino that if Leticia Van De Putte can get her Hispanic community to turn out strongly in November she may have a chance, although even then still iffy.

          It's a double-edged sword. Van De Putte would do better against Patrick, but if she loses Patrick will be an unmitigated disaster for Texas. If Dewhurst prevails in the runoff (which I think is going to be tough), then it's a harder election for Van De Putte, but Dewhurst would be much better than Patrick all things considered. In either case I'll be doing all I can for Leticia Van De Putte (and Wendy Davis.)

          But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, ... there are few die well that die in a battle; ... Now, if these men do not die well, it will be a black matter for the king that led them to it; — Shakespeare, ‘Henry V’

          by dewtx on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 12:05:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Anyone who didn't vote in the Dem primary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dewtx

      can vote against Dan Patrick in the runoff.

      Do it.

      "It's the (expletive) 21st century man. Get over it." - David Ortiz

      by grubber on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:05:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  IMO (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      texasmom, dewtx, stevenaxelrod

      the LG race might be the one that breaks the losing streak.  The Republican establishment hates Patrick.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:53:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Any recent polling on NY-11? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sidnora, wader

    Curious to see if Grimm's offer of flying lessons has dinged his prospects.

    I live under the bridge to the 21st Century.

    by Crashing Vor on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 06:17:04 AM PST

    •  I haven't found anything newer (3+ / 0-)

      than this.

      The next month should prove interesting, with petitioning starting this week, which will be the official kickoff of Recchia's campaign (unofficially, he's been running for almost a year now).

      It's still a muddled picture, with Recchia having some strengths (DCCC $$ and manpower support, conservaDem voting record, which is what the district requires) and some weaknesses (Brooklynite, rather than Staten Islander, and even considered a carpetbagger in the district by some of the Brooklynites). The local Democratic activist community, which is far more liberal than Recchia, will be putting boots on the ground for him, just as we did for MacMahon in 2008. Let's hope for a better result this time, IOW, a candidate who can actually hold onto the seat if he wins it.

      "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

      by sidnora on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 06:58:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Happy to hear there will be no (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, sidnora

        (or few) purity problems with Recchia. There's simply no way a candidate we'd love could win SI.

        I live under the bridge to the 21st Century.

        by Crashing Vor on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:02:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Apparently, (0+ / 0-)

          he does have some sort of intraparty problem, but it is very local, not ideological, and I don't know enough about it yet to comment. I'm not in the district, but I have a friend who is, and I expect to know more soon.

          "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

          by sidnora on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:18:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  tx state senate dist 16 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, Pinto Pony, wader

    Huffines took out Corona.  And the dems aren't even running anybody.  I'm so sick of this state.  Just a taste of what we're in for:
    http://www.texasobserver.org/...

    Culbert Olson is my hero!

    by chemborg on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 06:22:46 AM PST

    •  Well, small consolation, but in HD-102, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chemborg

      the incumbent Stefani "Plagiarism is my middle name" Carter (33.17%) is in a GOP run-off against former Dallas Council member Linda Koop (34.7%).  Koop may be the saner one of the two, but it's not a flattering comparison. At least the two other real teabag nutters who were running came last.

      "Texas politics - - the best free entertainment there is" - Molly Ivins

      I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 09:47:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I still support Wendy Davis, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, Pinto Pony, wader

    and will even give money, but I still think she should have challenged Cornyn rather than Abbot. Unless Abbot has something out there we currently don't know, its going to be tough for Davis to win. She got about 400,000 votes yesterday and Abbot got 1.2 million. Three times as much.

    I think she would have a much easier time with Cornyn, and it would boost her fundraising, possibly attracting a Clinton or two. But she's going to have a tough time unseating Abbot.

    Could be good statewide experience for unseating Cruz in a few years, but I'm thinking its going to be tough this year unless something new comes out.

    •  Fundraising would be way worse actually (5+ / 0-)

      There are far fewer limits for Gov contributions, and even though Cornyn doesn't have AS much money, Davis wouldn't be able to close the gap. Further, there's more precedent for Dems doing well in state races than federal ones- we haven't won or even come close in a Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen.

      Also the numbers with the R primary aren't apples to oranges. The most compelling D primary is a no-hope Senate race, while every R statewide except Gov pretty much was competitive. Primary numbers don't mean ANYTHING.

      •  Well, she got less primary votes than Bill White (0+ / 0-)

        so that hardly indicates a motivated constituency in my reading.

        But you could be right. We will see.

        •  Don't shoot me - but will confess that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod, DRo

          most Democrats I know here in rural NW Texas voted in the Republican primary. We knew Wendy Davis would win the nomination but many felt the need to vote for real people who affect our counties - the sheriff, county judge & commissioners, county clerk, tax assessor-collector, etc.  

          The truth is our part of Texas that has voted 82 -86% Republican for decades. Since the primary is the election for the most part, we want to have a voice in our local politics.  Plus we actually know most of the candidates personally.

          That will not prevent us from contributing time, money and phone-banking duties for Wendy and Leticia in the General.  

          The truth always matters.

          by texasmom on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 10:02:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Cornyn is incredibly powerful (6+ / 0-)

      and would win handily. You start working over Texans at the state level. Get them comfortable voting for your party. Then you compete seriously for the federal level.

      This is how it was done in other red states.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:44:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  From a lifetime of watching Texas politics (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DRo, brooklynbadboy

      I can see your logic, but don't agree.  ;)  Cornyn is entrenched in most voters' minds and compared to some of the TPers  on the ballot, he comes across as dignified for the most part. People are used to voting for him.

      The governorship, on the other hand, has been held by Perry for 14 years and could conceivably be held for many more years if Abbott is elected.  To me, it was now or never for Wendy.

      Having met Rick Perry back when he was a Democrat (and been in his presence since), I will say that he was able to suck all the attention out of the room and toward himself.  As long as he wasn't asked any hard questions, he was a commanding presence.  (yuk, I know)  Greg Abbott has none of that aura. Wendy has a much stronger personality, presence and yes, appearance.

      2014 may not be the ideal year for Wendy's candidacy, but I believe it's the best chance we have.  I also believe that the addition of Leticia Van de Putte for LG makes for a dynamic team.

      We will just have to contribute our time and money in every way possible to help them.  And for once, we Texans would love to see some heavy support coming into Texas after years of sending our money to help fund candidates in other states.

      Stepping off soapbox now...

      The truth always matters.

      by texasmom on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 10:26:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Northwest Texas here (0+ / 0-)

        Until we change the local media here, it will continue to be the death of the Texas Democrats. I am also in a majority Hispanic county and they don't vote much less since they are mad about Obamas deportation.

        Hispanics are not loyal like African Americans.

  •  huge GOP vs Dem turnout disparity in TX (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, chemborg, GleninCA, Odysseus

    Turnout in yesterday's Texas Dem and GOP statewide primaries shows the uphill climb TX Democrats face to turn Texas blue:

    For state Agriculture Commissioner for example, there were 490,000 Democrats voting and 1,186,000 Republicans voting.

    In the 2 U.S. Senate primaries, there were 507,000 Democrats voting and 1,309,000 Republicans.

    Sigh.

    •  I can tell you what part of the problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GleninCA, tom 47

      was from my little neck of the woods in Dallas County.  Total turnout: 86,780 R vs. 67,925 D.  Dallas County is a pretty blue county, in general.  Has the tide turned?  No.  I think one of the issues was that 1) it was pretty much a forgone conclusion that Wendy is the nominee for governor, so why bother going to vote for her in the primary, 2) we didn't even run anybody in races that might have turned more people out i.e. sen dist 16, amongst others, and 3) there really wasn't much that was contested outside of judgeships, and those don't really drive people to the polls.  The Republicans had many hotly-contested races and were forever dominating the  broadcast tv commercial landscape with wackos out-wackoing each other.
      Just my thoughts.  

      Culbert Olson is my hero!

      by chemborg on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:22:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gutting Obamacare and Jesus Riding a Dinosaur (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, chemborg, TexasLefty

      I believe the Republicans inserted "Repeal Obamacare" and "Religious Expression" ballot issues into their primary (among other hot button resolutions)...ginning up their rubes and therefore...turnout. They always know how to get their illiterate base excited to vote. They're experts at manipulation of the herd.

      "Do you realize that fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous Communist plot we have ever had to face?" - General Jack D. Ripper

      by wilder5121 on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:44:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wouldn't worry too much about this. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      texasmom, stevenaxelrod, DRo

      Most of the Democratic primaries are either uncontested or (like the gubernatorial primary) the outcome is a foregone conclusion.  The only people who vote in the Democratic primary are, basically, people who want to participate in the local conventions.  The lone exception is in the Rio Grande Valley (where for local races, the Democratic primary is the election), but even there turnout is going to be low.

      On the other hand, in many counties (i.e. outside the major urban areas or the Rio Grande Valley) the Republican primary is the election, for all intents and purposes, so if you want to have a say in who the local officeholders are, you vote in the Republican primary.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:49:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  and George P Bush ... (0+ / 0-)
  •  Here's a link (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MaikeH, texasmom

    to the Dallas Morning News' tally of unofficial results:

    http://res.dallasnews.com/...

    It's interesting how teabaggers and the like bluster about "throwing all incumbents out" but when push comes to shove they don't even vote.  Going through the Republican results for Congress and the state legislature a couple of incumbents got bumped off but most who were seriously challenged won by 60 to 30% or thereabouts.  I'm getting convinced anti-incumbent fever is mostly just talk.  

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

    by Kangaroo on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:28:47 AM PST

  •  A couple of questions... (0+ / 0-)

    Regarding the Texas Lt. Gov race: doesn't Leticia Van De Putte stand a chance of making the Lieutenant Governor's race competitive? It seems that the synergy of having two women running for the top two jobs in Texas could be beneficial...at least in helping to increase turnout among progressive women. It should also help among Hispanic men and women, one would think.

    Regarding the Louisiana Governor's race: Is House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards any relation to former Governor Edwin Edwards?

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