A public opinion poll (Google translation) conducted from 25 February to 4 March 2014 by the Ukrainian Center for Social and Marketing Research shows that, in the presidential election scheduled for May 25,
only 2.5% of respondents say they will vote for Tyagnibok of “Svoboda”; and only 1.6% will for Yarosh of “Pravyy sektor” (Right Sector), the two far-right Ukrainian parties.
Regarding foreign policy, 50.1% of all respondents, and 62.0% of those who say they would participate in a referendum, would "vote for accession to the European Union. 30.7% of all respondents, and 38% of would-be participants, would "vote for accession to the Customs Union with Russia and Kazakhstan Bilorussyu." 9.2% said they wouldn't participate. 10.% refused to answer.Petro Poroshenko, a wealthy member of parliament, leads with 21.2% of all respondents, 30.9% of those who say they intend to vote and have chosen a candidate.
Vitali Klitschko, the former WBC World Heavyweight Champion , as he styles himself, polls at 14.6% and 21.3%. Klitschko is a member of parliament and leader of the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, which is said to have "an anti-corruption and pro-European platform." It won 40, of 450, seats in the October 2012 parliamentary elections.
Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who was imprisoned by Viktor Yanukovych, polls at 9.7% and 14.1%. Tymoshenko was co-leader of Ukraine's 2004-05 Orange Revolution and prime minister in 2005 and from December 2007 to March 2010. Currently, she is undergoing treatment in Berlin's Charite Hospital. She leads the Batkivshchyna or the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" party.
Acting President Oleksandr Turchyno, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Justice Minister Pavlo Petrenko, and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov — are from the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) Party. In the 2012 parliamentary election, Tymposhenko's and Klitschko's parties withdraw in favor of each other's candidates in a number of constituencies.
Sergei Tigipko, deputy chairman of Yanukovych's Party of the Regions, polls at 7.1% and 9.6%.
Peter Simonenko, leader of the Communist Party of the Ukraine, polls at 5.0% and 6.4%.
Oleg Tyagnibok, leader of the far-right All-Ukranian Union (Svoboda) Party, polls at 2.5% and 3.6%. In 2004, Tyagnibok was expelled from parliament after "a fiery speech in which he described how Ukrainians, during World War II, bravely fought Muscovites, Germans, Jews 'and other scum,' and then used slurs to refer to the Jewish-Russian mafia, which rules in Ukraine.'” Svoboda won 38 seats in the October 2012 parliamentary elections.
Dmitry Jarosz (Yarosh), leader of the far-right Right Sector party, polls at 1.6% and 2.3%.
Finally, Viktor Medvedchuk, another wealthy oligarch, chairman of the pro-Russian political organization Ukrainian Choice, and father of a goddaughter of Vladimir Putin, polls at 1.0% and 1.3%.
81.9% of respondents say they are certain or likely to vote; 13.1% that they are unlikely or certain not to vote; and 5.0% are unsure.
During the survey, respondents were asked to make their own prediction as to who will be the next president of Ukraine interviewed was asked the following question: "Tell me, no matter who the candidates you support, do you think he still would win the election and become the future President of Ukraine? ".
At the first position is projected Ukrainian breaking yet those candidates P.Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and V. Klitschko. Although, if a high enough rating, V. Klitschko won voters believe something less than Tymoshenko. Almost about half - 48.7% of respondents did not answer this question and make a prediction as to who will be the next president of Ukraine.
But further Russian aggression against Ukraine could prevent elections or shake up the electorate. This afternoon, on the New York Times website, Steven Erlanger reports on what could be the beginning of an escalation of a Russian campaign to intimidate Ukrainians and perhaps lay further groundwork for invading--doubtless, Putin and his acolytes will say "liberating," "pacifying," or "saving"--Ukraine proper:
Russia said Monday that it cannot accept the “fait accompli” of the new Western-backed government in Ukraine and was preparing diplomatic counterproposals to serve “the interests of all Ukrainians,” even as Russian forces strengthened their control over Crimea, less than a week before a contentious referendum on the future of that southern Ukrainian region.In sum, the political future of the far-right in Ukraine looks bleak (fortunately), unless Russia acts in ways that give credence to their ultra-nationalist narrative.
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But while the West recognizes the new interim government in Kiev, with presidential elections scheduled for May, Russia wants to return to a late February deal that former President Viktor F. Yanukovych signed, agreeing to a new unity government and new presidential elections in December. Moscow insists Mr. Yanukovych remains Ukraine’s lawful president and was deposed, while the West says he abandoned his post and was legally replaced by a constitutional majority vote of the Ukrainian parliament.
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The [Russian Foreign Ministry] statement claimed that masked men had fired on and injured peaceful protesters last week in Kharkiv. Ukraine has said that Russia is fabricating such charges as part of a propaganda campaign to destabilize the Kiev government and justify possible new military action in the east. Kharkiv police said that they are treating the alleged shooting as a minor incident, according to Reuters.
By way of comparison, fascist, deeply antisemitic forces seem to be doing much better in Russia, where Vladimir Zhirinovsky's misnamed Liberal Democratic Party won 11.67% in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Zhirinovsky himself won6.2% of the vote in Russia's 2012 presidential election.