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Cross-posted at ACA Signups except for the last item, which isn't really part of my bailiwick but was worth mentioning here
California QHPs at 8K per day, should be at 965K by now; 85% of 1/31 enrollees paid
This article is both very helpful but also has 2 frustrating data points missing. The key numbers: While CA was averaging around 7,200 QHP enrollments per day in the first half of February, that rate is apparently up to 8,000/day now. This is excellent, but I don't know whether that 8K/day rate is only for the past week or if it includes the full 2nd half of February (I would guess that it's risen steadily since then.

On the other hand, CoveredCA also suffered from a 3-day outage, which could skew the daily average...they had 3 days of no enrollments, followed, presumably, by the 22K people who tried on those days possibly joining another 22K over the subsequent week or so. Either way, it's looking pretty good, though California will have to end up averaging around 20,000/day in March to do their part in hitting 7M total by 3/31, or 13,000/day to hit 6M.


While the "8,000 people per day" figure is somewhat vague, I'm confident enough to at least split the difference between 7,200 and 8,000 to call it 7,600/day from 2/16 through 3/08 (minus 3 days for the February outage, to be safe).

That brings California up to: 828,638 + ((18 days x 7,600) = 136,800) = 965,438 (and probably higher)

If you add another 2 days at 8,000/day (yesterday & today), that should bring CA to at least 981K by tomorrow, probably higher. There's still a very good chance of them hitting 1M tomorrow, or Wednesday at the latest, unless there's another factor I'm missing.

In any case, the official February HHS Enrollment Report should be out any day now (possibly even today, more likely tomorrow or Wednesday), so we'll know soon enough.

Checking in again on "But How Many Have Actually PAID???"

I discussed the "Paid/Unpaid" issue in the California update a few moments ago, but the topic needed a separate entry as well. According to the San Jose Mercury News, CA-exchange-based QHP enrollees who enrolled by January 31st are up to an 85% payment rate, from 80% as of 2/19:

The numbers of nonpayers varied only slightly among the largest insurers on the exchange: Kaiser Permanente reported that 13 percent of its enrollees didn't pay. Anthem Blue Cross of California, Blue Shield and Health Net said it was closer to 15 percent.

Federal officials say they've noticed the same trend nationwide.

As I've pointed out repeatedly, it's not enough to know how many haven't paid, it's also important to know when the unpaid policies actually start as well as why they haven't paid yet.

New York: Total enrollments up to 590K; QHPs up to 300K; still over 70% prev. uninsured
While it's great to see an official press release instead of just the number on the website, and it's also great to see that the new number is 32,000 higher than 5 days ago, it's rather irritating and strange that nowhere in the press release do they break out the QHP/Medicaid numbers.
ALBANY (March 10, 2014) – NY State of Health (NYSOH), the State’s official health plan marketplace, reported that as of 9 a.m. today, 908,595 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 590,639 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. More than 70 percent of those who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application. Over the last week alone, enrollment has increased by more than 55,000.
Fortunately, the New York Daily News is reporting that breakout as :
Of those who enrolled, 299,836 signed up for private insurance and 290,803 qualified for Medicaid.
Minnesota: Total enrollments up another 2K to 115K overall
And another "mini-update" out of Minnesota...up another 2,000 total in 3 days to 115,001+. Still assuming a 30/70 QHP/Medicaid split until they release detailed numbers, based on existing data, which brings MN up to 34,600 QHPs / 80,401 Medicaid.
Gallup Poll: U.S. Uninsured Rate Down 1.2% since end of 2013
A few things to keep in mind here.

--As you can tell by the chart, there seems to be some jumpiness from quarter to quarter, so some of this drop in the uninsured percent may just be normal flux.
--These percentages only include adults (over 18). Out of about 314 million people in the U.S., around 23.5% are under 18, so that's 1.2% out of around 240 million people.
--Gallup doesn't mention anything about undocumented immigrants one way or the other, so I'm assuming that they are included in the polling.
--That means that around 2.9 million more people (1.2% out of 240 million U.S. adults) have health insurance today who didn't have it prior to January 1st.

Nevada: Paid QHPs up 1,090, Unpaid up 390 since 3/01
Nevada just updated their QHP enrollments for the first week of March: 20,930 paid (up from 19,840 on 3/01) and 9,085 unpaid (up from 8,695 on 3/01). The combined tally is an increase of 1,480, from 28,535 to 30,015.

Meanwhile, in a related-but-not-directly-on-topic note, there's this update on the never-ending saga of Koch Bros' latest fave-rave Obamacare "victim" (note: I'm not belittling her medical condition, just her willing ignorance/blatant lying, depending on her state of mind),Julie Boonstra:

Dexter cancer patient who called health care 'unaffordable' will save more than $1K

Washington — A Dexter cancer patient featured in a conservative group’s TV ad campaign denouncing her new health care coverage as “unaffordable” will save more than $1,000 this year under the plan, The Detroit News has learned.

Boonstra said Monday her new plan she dislikes is the Blue Cross Premier Gold health care plan, which caps patient responsibility for out-of-pocket costs at $5,100 a year, lower than the federal law’s maximum of $6,350 a year. It means the new plan will save her at least $1,200 compared with her former insurance plan she preferred that was ended under Obamacare’s coverage requirements.

There's a hell of a line that encapsulates the wingnut/teabagger mentality a little farther down:
When advised of the details of her Blues’ plan, Boonstra said the idea that it would be cheaper “can’t be true.”

“I personally do not believe that,” Boonstra said.

Reality does have a liberal bias and all that, folks...

PS, some nice press coverage of late:

03/10/14: The Los Angeles Times: New data show Obamacare gaining traction

03/10/14: The New Republic: Don’t Expect Conservative Media to Cover This New Obamacare Poll

03/10/14: ThinkProgress: Uninsurance Rate Falls As Millions Sign Up For Obamacare, Survey Finds

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