The implications [of future fossil fuel production possibilities] are vast.
All the more so if just reciting numbers is the objective. Disregarding ongoing depletion of conventional crude oil fields which peaked nearly a decade ago while also ignoring the rapid depletion rates, inferior quality, and high costs of unconventional oil via fracking shale formations, does make it easier to lay claim that we have no supply issues to worry about for close to forever.
It’s one thing to hype reserve totals, as fossil fuel industry Happy Talkers uniformly do. But picking an impressive-sounding number indicating underground/under sea reserve totals without also mentioning all of the factors noted above—and other related production issues—turns an impressive-sounding talking point into more fact-free nonsense. Industry cheerleaders wouldn’t continue to make those “abundant reserves” claims if facts were tacked on, so the obvious choice is … not share facts. Quite the tactic!
There are 89 billion barrels of oil still trapped inside America's oil wells. That's because the average oil well in America only gives up 30% of its black gold. This is oil that's vital to fueling our economy and it's just sitting down there.
To put this into perspective, if the U.S. could recover all its oil, our nation would rival Iraq and Iran as a top five holder of oil reserves in the world.
A couple of problems with this “perspective.” (It’s one type frequently employed by those with a vested interest in making sure oil production and its immense profits-making capabilities rolls along without interruption (or, ideally, without regulation).
Are morons running oil production companies? Did they just make collective decisions to abandon some two-thirds of readily accessible and inexpensive to extract oil fields because they … didn’t feel like it? Were too tired that day? Bored? Or might the truth be that [accepting the 89 billion figure as is, because I’m such a nice guy] the rest of that oil isn’t exactly “just sitting down there?”
Why might that be? Not exactly all in one place? Not exactly in a hundred different places in very small amounts? Much too expensive to extract? Much too expensive to even identify? Too much of a time commitment for potential returns? No present technology? That’s just off the top of of my head.
What kind of perspective is: “if the U.S. could recover all its oil?” If pigs could fly, air travel would be a lot less expensive. Facts do suck, and all the more so when they ruin the narrative of a fact-free, all-is-well story.
That same writer was then nice enough to clarify his intentions:
One of the keys to unlocking all of the oil still trapped is to find the right technique to unlock it.
Oh! Is that all? What the hell are oil producers doing instead of finding that “right technique to unlock it?” You don’t suppose there might be an issue or two before that happens? This is a rebuttal to concerns that our energy supply might not match demand or expectations forever and ever?
The technologies employed to boost recent production totals are legitimately impressive, and in some cases, awe-inspiring. But none of that comes about quickly, easily, or inexpensively … at a minimum. It all comes about only if prices at the pump are high enough to generate investment funds sufficient to envision, design, test, re-test, pay for, and determine results first. Not a long-weekend project. And sometimes, for all the ingenuity and skill and commitment demonstrated, in the end for any number of reasons, it’s not worth pursuing.
It certainly won’t be if prices fall because we consumers aren’t able to willing to keep paying those high prices to begin with. That’s a fact industry cheerleaders cheerfully overlook.
In hindsight, you drive oil to $147 barrel and lo and behold, five years hence the world is swimming in oil. It really is that simple.
Not exactly. We consumers aren’t nearly as enamored by high prices as are industry personnel and their media lackeys. The marvels of the free market then step in to have their say, and suddenly prices aren’t so high. Guess what happens next?
Facts still suck!
(Adapted from a recent blog post of mine)
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