Population is a sensitive subject, but it is noteworthy that by 2050, oil supply will have fallen to a level able to support less than half the current population in its present way of life
Oil buyers apparently know the Western world’s economic recovery will boost consumption, since growth and oil use are aligned. That’s not all. They also know that the math doesn’t work: Prices can’t go into gradual, long-term decline, or even stay flat, when the world’s conventional oil fields are in fairly rapid decline.
Exotic production – oil sands, biofuels, natural gas liquids – are supposed to fill the gap. But this so-called unconventional production is highly expensive and quite possibly insufficient to cover the drop off in cheap, conventional production. Prices will rise to the point that demand will have to level off or fall.
Those two quotes (if any semblance of reality matters) suggest at a minimum that we indeed have some challenges ahead. That these problems won’t show up fully formed at the end of this week doesn’t mean they aren’t already blossoming. They don’t stop because too few are paying attention.
Masking their potential to create hardships with lots of Happy Talk about our energy abundance and nothing-to-worry-about energy supplies—all of which carefully skirts the truth about those supplies—isn’t our best approach to dealing with what we need to deal with.
I’ll suggest that our political and industry leaders need to move beyond the issue of blame and responsibility and start devoting their capabilities to properly informing the public, planning for, and then adapting to the changes declining energy supplies will impose on us. Reaching peak oil is not some deliberate attempt on the part of capitalist society to screw us all up; it’s simply the end result of our great ingenuity and progress maximizing the use of a finite resource—finite being defined as something not infinite….
We’re enjoying the (temporary) fruits of that ingenuity and technological prowess via the shale production boom because that’s what’s left for us. Conventional crude oil fields (also finite) continue their inexorable depletion, while wells now being fracked (a much more expensive process to begin with) have staggering decline rates—just one of the many issues about shale production we must acknowledge and address. Despite the chatter, tight oil production is not our energy savior.
Is it better to run ourselves headfirst into a wall, or might it be wiser if start having meaningful, fact-based conversations with the goal of adaptation to the reality of current and future rates of production? Rate is what matters. The misleading “increasing reserves” argument has a narrow range of utility and benefit. You can safely assume neither is directed to the general public.
If those of us spreading the word about peak oil thought “The Market” in all its forms would be the one and only solution, I’m willing to wager that almost all of my peers would agree to let it do its thing. But capitalism relies on the very energy supply engine we believe will soon fail to keep pace with demand and need, so where does that leave us?
This is not a conservative versus liberal issue, although some may use that to protect their narrow interests at our expense. (Wouldn’t be the first time….)
Can the values inherent in conservative philosophy serve a greater purpose in the face of peak oil by stepping aside from pure ideology in order to contribute to developing solutions? Would political and industry leaders want some say in making sure that their values and principles find a place in whatever adaptations are eventually decided upon? Do the “No-Energy-Supply-Worries” cheerleaders really want to continue to rely exclusively on the entire line of “might possibly if only could”...?
The great transition of the 21st century will entail enormous adjustments on the part of every individual, family, and community, and if we are to make those adjustments successfully, we will need to plan rationally. Implications and strategies will have to be explored in nearly every area of human interest—agriculture, transportation, global war and peace, public health, resource management….
That is the reality. It’s not as appealing as the “What, Me Worry?” crowd’s message, but reality isn’t always blue sky and sunshine.
Dealing with that reality today is a better long-term strategy than pretending postponement is the wiser choice. It’s not.
(Adapted from a recent blog post of mine)
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