The Cook Political Report rankings are used by nearly everybody looking at how a House race might end up on Election Day in November. It ranks each district based on a formula that has somewhat accurately predicted races between candidates. However, what happens when you have one standard candidate and one not-quite-standard candidate?
Texas’ 27th Congressional District stretches from Corpus Christi in Nueces County (The base of the district with 50% of the voting population) north to Wharton County. As if that wasn’t enough, it then goes northwest to Bastrop County. In all, the 27th is comprised of 13 counties, with some counties split with other districts.
Currently, the district is represented by Blake Farenthold. Farenthold won in 2010, barely edging out incumbent Congressman Solomon Ortiz by less than 800 votes. Everybody knows 2010 was a particularly rough year for Democrats, but the loss of the Texas 27th was particularly shocking. It was seen as safe right up until the end when a flood of outside spending lifted Farenthold to his new job in Washington, D.C. He hadn’t raised much money during the 2010 cycle, and was hugely outmatched by the finances of Ortiz. However, the outside spending made the difference.
After his election, Farenthold’s district was seen as too unstable for him to remain in office for very long. Of course, a victory by the Republican Farenthold in 2010 meant that the Republican led state government could make his district safe for years. Unfortunately for Farenthold and Republicans, there are a few reasons why their redistricting (many would say gerrymandering) efforts may not be enough.
First, the Texas 27th (which has a PVI of R+13 in The Cook Report) may not be as safe as many people tend to think. As stated before, Congressman Farenthold doesn’t raise much money. In fact, the pre-primary filing by both Farenthold and his Democratic challenger, Marine Corps Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Wesley Reed, former F/A-18 and current FedEx pilot, show Reed edging Farenthold in money for the first 6-weeks of 2014. If Reed can keep the momentum up, it will be a huge step in unseating the Tea Party Republican.
Money is often the deciding factor in political races. 90% of the time, the candidate with the most money wins their particular race. If Reed can raise more money than Farenthold, he would be in good shape as an incumbent. As a challenger, he would be in great shape.
Reed’s story is very uncommon for a Democrat. Reed is a nearly 25-year Marine Corps veteran (currently in the Reserves). He flew F/A-18 fighter planes when active in the Marine Corps and served at Central Command in Tampa, Florida. Needless to say, he has the chops to debate on defense issues and veteran’s issues. Congressman Farenthold voted to cut veteran’s benefits recently and had to withstand the backlash from that vote. He subsequently voted to repeal those cuts, but the damage may have been done. Texas District 27 has over 50,000 veterans, so veteran’s issues are sure to play a big role in this election.
Another problem Congressman Farenthold might have is that some Republicans have already started to “jump ship” to Lt. Col. Reed. In Victoria, TX, the second population center of the district, a Republican veteran has already pledged support and volunteer time to Reed and his campaign. It’s one person, but Farenthold squeaked out his election in 2010 and each person counted.
The discovery of a home packed with over 100 undocumented immigrants has sparked the immigration debate again. Reed supports comprehensive immigration reform, as do many voters in the district base of Corpus Christi. However, Farenthold would rather take a piece by piece approach to immigration. Their contrasting views could be at the forefront in the early stages of the campaign.
In Victoria, the big issue is the closing of a local post office. Farenthold sits on a committee that might have been able to avoid the closure, but it happened anyway. Reed will probably use his experience with mail delivery through FedEx as a way to show what he might do differently based on his knowledge on postal issues.
Unlike Farenthold’s 2012 challenger, Reed is a more moderate Democrat and his service in the Marine Corps will appeal to voters in the more conservative northern counties. If Reed can keep the money coming in at the rate it’s coming, he could have a real chance at what some (Not Mr. Reed) might call a “surprise win” in November.