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The new PPP poll is out on the 2014 North Carolina U.S. Senate race delivering mixed news as always.  First, on the GOP side:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

Four weeks out from primary day, the Republican race for Senate in North Carolina continues to look like it's headed for a runoff. Thom Tillis leads the GOP field with 18% to 15% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 7% for Heather Grant, 6% for Ted Alexander, 5% for Alex Bradshaw, 2% for Jim Snyder, and 1% for Edward Kryn. 34% of voters remain undecided and Tillis will probably have to win most of them in order to get to the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff.

Tillis' small lead comes in spite of having far greater name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. 60% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion compared to 31% for Brannon and 30% for Harris, the other serious Republican contenders at this point. Tillis and Harris have both seen their support increase 4 points from a month ago, while Brannon has gained just one point. No one else seems to be gathering any momentum in the primary race. - PPP, 4/8/14

Now on the Democratic side, Senator Kay Hagan (D. NC) has a 41/48 approval rating and slightly trails most of her GOP opponents:
She trails most of her Republicans opponents by small margins- it's 44/40 against Mark Harris, 43/39 against Heather Grant, 42/40 against Greg Brannon, 41/40 against Edward Kryn, 42/41 against Alex Bradshaw, and 43/42 against Ted Alexander. - PPP, 4/8/14
But here's a silver lining with Tillis being the current GOP frontrunner:
Hagan does tie Jim Snyder at 41, and the one Republican who she actually leads is her most likely opponent- she has a slim 43/41 edge over Thom Tillis. In Tillis' case being well known is not necessarily a positive thing- his time at the helm of an unpopular legislature has left him with a 20/39 favorability rating. The more generic GOP hopefuls that few voters have heard of all do a little bit better than him in the general. - PPP, 4/8/14
It's difficult to know who will end up being the GOP nominee at this point.  Brannon's not that far behind Tillis and Harris being in third place.  It's very likely they could head into a runoff and Brannon is a Todd Akin candidate so even if he were to win the nominee, Hagan will have a lot to hit him with and see those numbers change.  Tillis is the face of Art Pope and the NC GOP's agenda and the Chamber Of Commerce is backing Tillis.  It'll be an expensive race but Hagan can still beat him.  As for Harris, we'll have to see if he can get the Evangelical voters to help him pull off an upset victory.  It's still a while away but Hagan is going to need our help to take on Pope, the Koch Brothers, Karl Rove and the GOP.  Click here if you want to donate and get involved with her campaign:
http://www.kayhagan.com/

Originally posted to pdc on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 12:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by North Carolina BLUE and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is going to be a real toss up until the end. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, BMScott, davehouck, RamblinDave

    Thanks for the up date.

  •  The last Democratic Senator from NC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    antooo

    to win re-election was Sam Ervin in 1968.

    Despite that, I expect Hagan to win a 52-48 "landslide".

    Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

    by bear83 on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 01:36:07 PM PDT

    •  Keep in mind (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      Neither party gets more than 52% very often in NC. It's among the purplest of states, and is ever so slowly trending our way. I'd be a fool to guarantee that would save Hagan, but it might.

      Also, I'm virtually certain Terry Sanford would have won reelection in 1992 if he hadn't had a heart attack in October. John Edwards might have hung on in 2004 if he'd run again, too - we'll never know.

      Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

      by RamblinDave on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 09:08:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You are probably right on both (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RamblinDave

        If Edwards had focused on his Senate career instead of running for VP/President and chasing skirts, he'd probably still be in the Senate.

        He had a strong, fairly populist message (2 Americas). Too bad the Senate wasn't a big enough job for him.

        Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

        by bear83 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 04:38:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I worked for Edwards' pollster (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83

          I still recall Election Day 1998: we were all planning to call in sick on Wednesday if Edwards lost - our boss would have been in a seriously foul mood! Everyone near him back then thought he had an extremely bright future, and he would have if he'd managed his personal life a bit better.

          For the first several months of 1999, saying I worked for Edwards' pollster was a great way to get free drinks in DC, too: everyone was grateful to anyone who'd had a part in retiring Lauch Faircloth.

          Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

          by RamblinDave on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:27:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Tiny Thom Tillis is an A.L.E.C. bought and sold... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SteelerGrrl

    meat puppet disguised as an ethical politician (if there is such a thing).  He is a charter member and attends their meetings with regularity and brings home to NC their warped agenda without even a worry.  I can only imagine what will happen to this election cycle and Hagen now with the Supreme Court Jesters giving the green light on "democracy for $ale".

    “My soul is from elsewhere, I'm sure of that, and I intend to end up there." - Rumi

    by LamontCranston on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 01:58:53 PM PDT

  •  It's sad that we have turned into the (0+ / 0-)

    party that hopes for bad oppenents instead the party that wins on ideas.

    New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

    by AlexDrew on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 02:11:44 PM PDT

    •  With all respect (3+ / 0-)

      I think you're overgeneralizing. I've lived in NC for ten years, and on the ground level the politics are very different than in deep blue states like CA.

      The 2012 elections decimated the significant progress we made from 2004 until 2008, when Barack Obama carried NC by the slimmest margin in the nation and Bev Perdue (D) won the Governor's race. In 2012 Romney won NC handily, sweeping Pat McCrory (R-Duke Energy) and Art Pope (R-Koch) into power with a solid R state legislature.

      We're in a world of hurt as a state and we have a lot of work to do. Kay Hagan is the incumbent, she's a solid D, and I don't think it's fair to characterize her as "hop(ing) for bad opponents."

      Thom Tillis would be a disaster in the Senate. The more a bitter primary exposes his ideas, the saner ours seem. It's not going to be an easy win either way.

      Visit my new blog, Little Lotte Studio, to see what I'm growing and making this spring!

      by SteelerGrrl on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 03:15:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  From the diary: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RamblinDave
        It's very likely they could head into a runoff and Brannon is a Todd Akin candidate

        New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

        by AlexDrew on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 03:48:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And you see this type of comment at (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RamblinDave

        least once a day.

        New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

        by AlexDrew on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 03:49:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Let's also remember (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SteelerGrrl

        She beat Elizabeth Dole - the very definition of a media darling - last time. If she could beat a good opponent then, we should have some faith in her ability to hang on this time.

        And yes, NC is tough terrain for Democrats, so there's nothing wrong with hoping for some good luck. That's a good thing to have on your side in the best of times, never mind times like these!

        Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

        by RamblinDave on Tue Apr 08, 2014 at 09:10:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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