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I am writing about all the competitive senate races.  These diaries will be updated on Yahoo! as I hear about new material. I have articles about:

AK-Sen

AR-Sen

CO-Sen

GA-Sen

IA-Sen

KY-Sen

LA-Sen

MI-Sen

MT-Sen

NH-Sen

NC-Sen

SD-Sen

For what I have on North Carolina, as of April 12, follow me below.

North Carolina politics

In elections for President, North Carolina has been a swing state. In 2012, Romney beat Obama 50-48, but in 2008, Obama beat McCain in a very close race.

Statewide, Hagan beat Elizabeth Dole 53-44 in 2008. North Carolina's other senator is Republican Richard Burr. Its governor, Pat McCrory, is a Republican, as are 9 of its 13 representatives in the House.

The Senate race
The Democratic Primary

There will be a Democratic primary on May 6, but Kay Hagan is virtually certain to win. On the Issues calls her a "moderate liberal populist". She is pro-choice, is a fiscal moderate, is strong against discrimination, is moderately pro-labor, moderately pro-environment, against gun control measures, favors ObamaCare but wants to fix it, favors the Patriot Act.

The Republican primary
On the Republican side, no less than 8 candidates are contesting the primary. The leader in polls is Thom Tillis, with Greg Bannon and Heather Grant his closest competitors. Tillis is the speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, Bannon is a Tea Party activist, Grant is a nurse.

    A new poll from PPP finds Tillis with a small lead in the primary, which will likely head for a runoff. (18% for Tillis, 15% for Brannon, 11% for Harris, others trailing)

The polls:
Recent polls show a very close race between Hagan and any of the top Republican challengers.

    April 3 - A Survey USA poll shows Hagan trailing the top Republican challengers by 1 or 2 points each

    April 8 - A PPP poll found Hagan trailing most challengers by 1 to 4 points, but leading by 1 against Tillis

Fundraising

According to the FEC, at the end of 2013 Hagan had raised $7.6 million and had $6.8 million cash on hand; Bannon had not filed, Grant had raised very little and Tillis had raised $1.8 million and had $1.3 million cash on hand

    April 8 - in the 1st quarter, Hagan raised $2.8 million and has $7.5 million on hand, Tills raised $1.3 million and had $1 million on hand.

My take

Hagan has a huge fundraising edge; the race seems to be more about her than her opponent, given that the polls show almost identical results against different Republicans. The race may depend on whether the Republicans damage each other in the primary.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think this is one of the toughest seats (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    for the Dems to hold.

    Hagen won when Obama carried the state in 2008. Obama couldn't eek it out in 2012. The Dems need a strong turnout to just be competitive in this state, and the Dem turnout in the mid-terms will not be as strong as either '08 or '12.

    Absent some sort of national wave for the Dems, I don't think Kay can pull this one out. I plan on targeting my (limited) Senate contributions at other races.

  •  Excellent. Hope these get Spotlit. Nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, BMScott, oceanview

    While you dream of Utopia, we're here on Earth, getting things done.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:32:23 AM PDT

  •  Whoever gets the GOP primary nod (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, buffie

    will be gifted with enough dark money support to paint Senator Hagan as an atheist depriving people of their health insurance, bankrupting small business, and destroying whatever it is conservatives consider traditional marriage in the 21st century (serial hetero monogamy?).

    Earlier today at the Durham County Dem convention, one speaker reminded us that individual GOTV efforts are worth their hours in gold--are worth more, in fact, than even big dark dollars.

    If every registered Democrat votes, Senator Hagan has a fighting chance. If registered Dems do what they like to do in off-year elections, we lose her and probably the Senate.

  •  Her ground game will be decisive (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Hagan has enough money to hold her own on the air.  What will really determine this race is the Democrats of North Carolina working the grassroots and getting people to the polls.  

    Seems to me, the biggest bellweather for the election is how pissed off the women of five Southern/border states get.  

    Five female candidates:  Hagan. Grimes. Tennant. Landrieu. Nunn.  All excellent, all doing exactly what they're supposed to do, all in traditionally conservative states but not the worst of the worst.

    Win all five, we actually gain ground.  Win four, we break even.  Win two or three, we lose seats but keep control.  Lose all five and we've lost the game.

    There are other important races, but this block of states, it seems to me, is important. This year really could be a Year of the Woman, and national Democrats would do well to frame it as such.

    "The law, in its majestic equality, allows the poor as well as the rich to donate unlimited funds to the politicians of their choice." ---attributed to Anatole France

    by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 04:03:48 PM PDT

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