With the municipal elections in Newark, New Jersey's largest city, coming up three weeks from today, I thought it would be great to give a primer to the DK community. Newark has a strong Mayor-Council form of government, with a full-time mayor and full-time council (at least in terms of salary). Four Council members are elected at-large and five are elected from each of the city's five wards (North, South, East, West and Central). All of these offices are up for election in three weeks, and all can go to run-offs if no candidate gets a majority.
To give a bit of brief background before we get into the Central Ward Council race, the mayoral election is being fought between two candidates. The first, former Assistant AG and Board of Education member Shavar Jeffries, is generally seen as the outsider candidate, despite growing up and living in Newark for most of his life. Jeffries is supported by the powers that be in the NJ Democratic Party and Essex County Democratic machine, though they seem to have become less enthusiastic about him recently. The other candidate is South Ward Councilman Ras Baraka, who also served as Deputy Mayor under the corrupt Sharpe James and as principal of Central High School. Baraka is supported by the powers that be in Newark's old, black establishment and has become the frontrunner. Each campaign is running candidates in the council races, but each race also has several unaffiliated candidates, many of whom have a great shot at winning. In fact, several incumbents are unaligned with either campaign. We'll get into the Mayor's race more later.
I also want to go over Newark's ward system briefly. Each ward has a population between 48,000 and 68,000; they have not been adjusted for population size over the years. The South and West Wards are vast majority black, and are in by far the worst shape. Most people's negative images of Newark come from images of these two wards. Both mayoral candidates live in the South Ward, though Jeffries is not expected to strongly contest it. The North Ward is vast majority Hispanic; their councilman, Anibal Ramos, was initially the frontrunner for Mayor, but dropped out and endorsed Jeffries when his campaign seemed to run out of gas (for the record, he was my pick initially). The East Ward is in the best shape of the five, and is split between Hispanic and White populations, along with a large black minority. Here, you can find the redeveloped Ironbound, the Port of Newark and the Newark International Airport. Finally, the Central Ward is vast majority black with a large Hispanic minority. Here, you can find NJIT and Rutgers-Newark. It is considered the swing ward, with Jeffries likely to take the North and East and Baraka likely to take the South and West. This is the ward we'll be looking at today.
The Incumbent
Darrin Sharif
Back in 2010, Sharif narrowly upset longtime Councilman Charles Bell 2,388-2,377 after Bell was found to have embellished his college credentials. The narrow victory really speaks to how popular Bell was in the Central Ward; Sharif had far more money and endorsements despite Cory Booker's backing of Bell. Sharif's campaign manager and father, Carl, was once a close Booker adviser.
Sharif ran a bizarre and brief campaign for Mayor this year, but dropped out early on the same day as Ramos. His father Carl is Jeffries' campaign manager; Darrin has not endorsed Jeffries, and there is a Jeffries-backed candidate running against him in the Central Ward. It's an odd situation that I don't think anyone really understands, but it seems Sharif is one of the six "independents" seeking this seat.
Though he once worked for Cory Booker when he held this Council seat, Sharif has styled himself as a check on the administration, and seems to want to continue down that path. His campaign message is that he wants to represent the people of the Central Ward, not the mayoral candidates. Sharif relishes in the outsider role, and my theory is that he's setting himself up for a better executed Mayoral run in 4 years. The opposition candidates are so split at this point that I'd say he's a favorite for reelection.
The Slates
Gayle Chaneyfield Jenkins
Former At-Large Councilwoman Jenkins is running with Team Baraka, and there's really not that much out there about her platform beyond that. She lost her council seat in 2006 to a Booker-backed slate of candidates, and faced some hot water in 2008 when a firm she ran was awarded a lucrative contract by the City Council. Team Baraka is poised to do well in the Central Ward, which should give Jenkins an additional edge beyond residual name recognition, but if she does make it to the runoff, that may not be enough to defeat Sharif. Baraka, win or lose, will not be on the ballot in the runoff since there are only two mayoral candidates, and I have a hard time seeing Jenkins win on her own.
Andre Speight
Bishop Speight is running with Team Jeffries, and brings establishment support as the Chair of the Central Ward Democratic Committee. His wife was once on the city's Board of Education, and he faced controversy a few years ago when he tried to install her into this council seat (he failed). He is also a bitter rival of the incumbent, Darrin Sharif, and I think the runoff will likely be between these two.
From what I've read about Speight, he seems to be a very bitter man. In 2012, he attempted to recall Sharif due to claims that the councilman wasn't available enough. The two men just don't like each other, which makes it so odd that Speight is running with a campaign being managed by Sharif's father. That's Newark politics for you.
The Independents
These candidates will be in order of how well I think they'll do.
Miguel Arce
In another weird shift of alliances, the chief-of-staff to Jeffries-backed Councilman Carlos Gonzales is running independent of any slate in the Central Ward. Arce, who falsely claims that the Central Ward is "predominately Latino" is seemingly hoping that the black vote will be split enough from him to squeak by to the runoff, where I'm not sure what his plans will be against a black candidate in a Ward that's two-third black. Racial politics is very much a thing in Newark, and despite Arce's standing in the government, he likely has little shot at pulling an upset. You can't even say that he's a plant, because his candidacy will actually pull Latino votes away from the Jeffries-backed Speight.
Czezre Adams
Adams is a gay, 24-year-old teacher running, as most young candidates do, on the new generation of leadership message. He rightly points out the corruption and filth in Newark's government and is offering himself as a fresh face. I like Adams, and would probably vote for him if I lived here, but he really doesn't have a chance against the heavy hitters listed above. Hopefully he doesn't stop advocating and runs a strong campaign for the next 4 years.
Shawn McCray
Ex-con McCray has been involved with helping youth since he got out of jail, and is running on that biography. He is also the basketball coach at Central High, where Ras Baraka is the principal. He doesn't have a shot, but it's a nice story.
Victor Zamora
I can't find anything on his current bid, but Zamora also ran four years ago because a Councilman broke a promise to him. With absolutely nothing about his 2014 run online, I think it's safe to say that Zamora is at perennial candidate status.
Rafael Brito
Brito is a perennial candidate running on a "serve my community" message. He has an online presence, but no chance of winning.
The Prediction
This one is guaranteed to go to a runoff, and it will be Sharif vs. either Jenkins or Speight. I'm sure Sharif could dispatch Jenkins without too much trouble, but Speight could make a real race out of it. Still, I think Sharif is a slight favorite to keep his seat.