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A delegate from Texas waits for the start of the session during the second day of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida August 28, 2012. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
One hundred percent of the people in this photo are against marriage equality, so according to the logic of the religious right, the American people are urgently against marriage equality.
In the history of useless polls, this one must rank pretty high:
Two conservative groups are pushing back on moves by the GOP to drop opposition to same-sex marriage from party platforms, releasing a poll of base voters taken last month that found in favor of defining marriage “only” as between a man and a woman.

The poll, commissioned by groups led by conservatives Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins, runs counter to a wide variety of opinion polls that show movement on the question of same-sex marriage, with more voters favoring it than opposing it.

The reason it runs counter to broader surveys: The poll surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaners instead of the whole country. So it's not exactly a surprise that three-quarters of the people who responded to the poll said they don't think "politicians should support the redefinition of marriage to include same-sex couples."

But even though the poll only asked a narrow slice of the public for their views, that didn't stop its sponsors from extrapolating the results to the country as a whole (my emphasis):

Bauer, the president of American Values, faulted a “misinformation campaign waged by media elites” and insisted that “public policy-makers are doing a great disservice to themselves and future generations by continuing to misread the convictions of the American people … this survey should remind political and cultural leaders that this debate is far from over. If anything, it is taking on a new sense of urgency for millions of men and women of faith.”
Actually, Gary, this survey does no such thing. If anything, it's a reminder that the GOP base is still behind the times. If he's truly interested in what "the American people" think, he should look at polls of the entire country. And the good news for those of us who support marriage equality is this: the country is on our side.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kossacks for Marriage Equality.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ha! When polling bigots (22+ / 0-)

    pollsters found them to be bigoted. Shocker!

    "Onward through the fog!" - Oat Willie

    by rocksout on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:04:13 PM PDT

  •  "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." (7+ / 0-)

    Same old same old.

    Error margin of +/- 75%, give or take.

    The most violent element in society is ignorance.

    by Mr MadAsHell on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:13:23 PM PDT

  •  Your vote doesn't count... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hohenzollern, Halfton81, TexasTom, anon004

    if you're not a Republican, evidently.  Given the horrendous voter suppression laws that have been passed by GOP controlled states, this seems to be their genuine point of view.

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

    by richardak on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:13:31 PM PDT

  •  25% of Their Cherrypicking is Pro-Equality (5+ / 0-)

    What's interesting is that 25% of the Republicans they polled aren't against "redefining marriage". Given the wording and the rest of how they stacked the deck, I'd say that even Republicans are at least 1/3 against the government picking and choosing which unmarried adults can marry each another.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:14:04 PM PDT

  •  It just gets curiouser and curiouser n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hohenzollern, Dave in Northridge
  •  Hate and inequality loses again. n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hohenzollern

    "Really nice, but also very serious about his job." Jackie Evancho on President Obama 6/7/12

    by BarackStarObama on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:16:27 PM PDT

  •  Since non-Republican voters don't exist (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, anon004

    in their world, the reports makes complete sense... mathematically, anyway...

  •  GOP are firmly stuck in the 18th century (0+ / 0-)

    nosotros no somos estúpidos

    by a2nite on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:20:30 PM PDT

  •  Bauer assumes most reporters are stupid or lazy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TexasTom

    and won't notice that the poll was limited to respondents who are Republicans or Republican-leaners.

    •  Bauer assumes that this will be repeated (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anon004

      by the Right wing noise machine/echo chamber to his base of marks for fundraising, and doesn't care what anybody else says.

      He said we don't matter, didn't he?

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 04:15:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  These conservative groups are fighting for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mokurai

    relevance and survival as the ground shifts under them. I think their hay days were 2000-2004 and climaxed with Bush's re-election...and a lot of pundits credited that victory to the fundies.
    -But today they are on the wane and need to howl even louder.
    -Just the mere fact the some in the GOP are even considering dropping opposition to marriage equality from their platforms tells exactly how the far the pendulum has swung to the left.
    -At the heart of this is also money and grift. Remember these leaders make a killing spewing this hate.
    -As the nations shifts, they stand to lose money/customers.
    -Like every business you do everything to keep your customers...
    -What would be interesting would be to see how the 2016 GOPers straddle the line - appeasing/appealing to the base by opposing equality while also trying to appeal to the larger nation that has moved on...fun times ahead...

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

    by tuma on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:23:33 PM PDT

  •  Well, I guess that's one way to unskew a poll (5+ / 0-)

    Simple ask only those individuals are are already inclined to provide the answer you want.

    Oh my god, it's full of cheese! - 2001 first draft

    by sizzzzlerz on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:24:41 PM PDT

  •  Only Republicans are truly American. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    StevenWells, Mother Mags, Mokurai, anon004

    Anyone who doesn't believe as they do are "un-American" ... remember?  That's what they're constantly telling us.

    •  Yeah, and I remember... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai, anon004, Glenn45

      ... the first time I heard it explicitly stated by a Republican official: RNC Chairman Rich Bond at their '92 convention -

      "We are America. These other people are not America."

      And I love the way the question throws in a hot-button buzz-phrase - "...the redefinition of marriage..." - for good measure.

      When the question's asked in a neutral way by legitimate surveys, the numbers, even among Republicans, are less decisive.

      Kinda like all those people who said "the ACA" would be better law than "Obamacare."

  •  This actually justifies why Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    Should continue opposing marriage equality, if their only goal is getting voted back into office. Since another study here on Daily Kos shows there's no such thing as a swing voter, it's best for Republicans to just stick to their guns and stop attempting to aim for a non existent swing faction.

    On the other hand if they want to win long term, let's say over a fifty year term, they do have to change policy (look at the stats on millenials and their social preferences).

    http://jasonluthor.jelabeaux.com/

    by DAISHI on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:29:54 PM PDT

  •  Actually, I'm assuming they only polled (0+ / 0-)

    voters. Their logic - if you keep everyone else from voting, then, yes, all voters hate equal marriage.

    Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

    by pucklady on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:31:58 PM PDT

  •  Fine (0+ / 0-)

    Let 'em drag home exhausted every day from beating this dead horse. And when they get home, let 'em work on repealing the ACA.

  •  I work as a statistician... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mother Mags, Mike Kahlow

    ...and I'm just going to sit here and pound my head against my desk for a while.

    •  Oh, but there is so much real statistics to do (0+ / 0-)

      and also snark statistics. Bayesian analysis asks the question about the probability of events given knowledge of other events. In particular, what is the chance of winning an election with the polling at a certain level a certain length of time before election day? What Nate Silver and Sam Wang are good at, although Nate is not so good at whatever it is he is doing now.

      In the nascent field of psychophysics we have Quantum Bogodynamics (QBD) as a parody of QED and QCD (Quantum Electrodynamics of electromagnetism, and Quantum Chromodynamics of quarks, gluons, and the strong force). The bogon is thus the fundamental particle of bogosity, with a quantum number of 1. Its antiparticle is the cluon, bogosity -1. And so on.

      Now consider Bayesian Bogostatistics, the interaction of QBD with electoral rather than subatomic probabilities.

      What is the probability of winning an election if you substitute faith and especially complete bogosity for knowledge? What if you believe in fake polling, unskewing everybody else's polls, the No True American fallacy, and all the rest? Particularly if the actual polling shows you losing about 1% of the electorate every year for the foreseeable future, that is for the next generation or more already baked into the demographics. Start the analysis with those ages 0-17 today who will inevitably reach voting age in the normal course of events at the same time as a similar cohort of Angry White Guys dies off just as naturally. Consider the polling we have on the issues by age and ethnicity and income and such.

      Well, the record from Karl Rove's PACs, Sheldon Adelson, Mitt Romney, and the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity, among others, is shockingly bad.

      So cheer up. It could be worse. In fact, it will be. For Republicans.

      If you would like to talk about how we can fix math education in this country, and bring in genuine statistics applied to genuine questions that matter, message me. It's what I work on. Well, every subject at every level in every country, actually. The trick is, we cheat, and give the materials away for free, so that no school board can turn it down. ^_^

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 04:45:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is amazing. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge

    No, not the poll.

    This: Gary Bauer is president of some organization? Really? Folks were sitting around a conference table, pitching names to see who should lead their group, and someone said, "Gary Bauer?" And a majority agreed?

    Astounding.

    What? Alan Keyes turned the position down? Ralph Reed had a prior commitment?

    This is like a football team hiring Matt Millen to be its GM.

    "This debate is far from over." Right, Gary. And remember: We didn't give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, either.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 02:50:31 PM PDT

    •  The word you are seeking is (0+ / 0-)
      self-selection
      in combination with self-promotion. A good enough con man can easily start an organization around any issue that generates enough hate to tap for funding. If the con man actually believes in the cause, so much the better for raising money. As long as the hate flows.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 04:55:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well of course it surveyed only Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    They're the only one who count!

  •  All you need say is Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge

    It threatens one more Avenue of Myth that Gary and Tony can't work into their Grift.

    When Republicans Win You Lose

    by workinguy on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 03:15:29 PM PDT

  •  And my poll of couples in an LGBT relationship (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge

    revealed that 100 percent of these Americans think Gary Bauer's poll is skewed, just like his values.

    stay together / learn the flowers / go light - Gary Snyder

    by Mother Mags on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 03:17:36 PM PDT

  •  Research with a foregone conclusion (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge

    It's funny how the Family Research Council's research findings always magically support the organization's agenda.  

    It's actually not a bad tactic. Instead of just citing the Bible, family values, founding fathers, America and apple pie in defense of your argument, demonstrate how your point of view is credible because it's backed up by research.   But it's hard not to get a little cynical when all their research findings can be summed up by "gay bad."

    I suppose we're all guilty of seeking out research results we like (like those in which red wine is good for you instead of bad for you) but since we all know by now that Tony Perkins-commissioned research is never going to show people coming around on the matter of LGBT rights,  they could probably just skip the research portion and cut to the ideological chase.

  •  And about Politico (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    They described it as skewed, but presented it overall as a poll that confounded common knowledge. Why exactly do we pay any more attention to Politico than we do to Fox news?

    Seneca Falls, Selma, Stonewall

    by Dave in Northridge on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 03:23:34 PM PDT

  •  In their view (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SubVox

    only they — right-leaning Republicans — are the real Americans.  The rest of us don't count, because if we disagree with them, we're not real Americans.

    Besides, we may be the wrong sex or color or anything else that disqualifies us from being "real" Americans.

  •  OK, admit it... (0+ / 0-)

    how many of you think that Gary and Tony have been a couple for many years?

  •  One part of this is true (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theodore J Pickle
    … this survey should remind political and cultural leaders that this debate is far from over. If anything, it is taking on a new sense of urgency for millions of men and women of faith.
    It isn't the survey that tells us so. It is the classic study When Prophecy Fails, by Leon Festinger et al. that defined Cognitive Dissonance. When facts contradict an article of faith, most of the faithful double down and think up excuses for the failure. The original case was a prediction that the world was coming to an end, but those who showed up in a particular place at a particular date and time could be rescued by flying saucer dwellers. Nothing happened, so the believers decided that the FSDs had changed the plan for destroying the Earth because they had demonstrated their faith by showing up.

    it has been observable for years, since the appearance of the Tea Parties, that the shrinking numbers on the Right cause them to get louder and nastier, not only on Marriage Equality but on everything. It always seems that they cannot get crazier, and they always do.

    Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

    by Mokurai on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 05:03:39 PM PDT

  •  This is what my congress-critter posted about this (0+ / 0-)

    "poll" on his Facebook page this afternoon: "Contrary to the Left, poll shows Americans support traditional marriage. Cue liberal outrage. http://goo.gl/... ‪#‎1M1W‬ ‪#‎MarriageAmendment."

    My congress-critter is Tim Huelskamp (R KS-01).

    Earth will survive. Humanity? Earth doesn't really care. Don't take it personally.

    by dpwks on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 05:17:20 PM PDT

    •  My Condolences. (0+ / 0-)

      My congress-critter is Tim Huelskamp (R KS-01)

      Can I get a Grey Goose on the rocks over here?!

      by G Contractor on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 07:23:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And you know, some aide will call to his attention (0+ / 0-)

      that his blew this one and Huelskamp will merely shrug his shoulders and remark, "oh well." The overwhelming majority of his constituents in Western Kansas (save one) will never know the better. I apologize for the stereotyping here, however, I doubt the patrons of the IGA, TSC and A&W are paying much attention to Twitter.  

      Can I get a Grey Goose on the rocks over here?!

      by G Contractor on Tue Apr 22, 2014 at 07:32:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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