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In the wake of last weekend's, 2014 NRA/NRAAM Annual Meetings and Exhibits, I came across a study conducted eight months ago by two New York City cardiologists. They found there are more guns and gun deaths in the United States, than in 27 other developed countries. Dr. Sripal Bangalore and Dr. Franz Messerli claimed they conducted the study to see which side of the gun debate was stating facts (biting my tongue):
“I think we need more of what I would call evidence-based discussion and not merely people pulling things out of their hats,” Bangalore said. “We hear time and time again about these shootings, especially in the last year or so. A lot of claims are made…so we wanted to look at the data and see if any of this holds water.”
They gathered their information from World Heath Organizaiton (a fascinating interactive site) and Small Arms Survey.
United States
88.8 Guns per 100    
10.2 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

45.7 Guns per 100   
3.84 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

45.3    Guns per 100
3.64 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

31.6    Guns per 100
1.47 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

31.3    Guns per 100
1.78 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

31.2    Guns per 100
3 FireaFirearm-related Deaths per 100,000

30.8    Guns per 100
2.44 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

30.4    Guns per 100
2.94 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

30.3    Guns per 100
1.25 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

30.3    Guns per 100
1.1 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

New Zealand   
22.6    Guns per 100
2.66 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

22.5    Guns per 100
1.5 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

17.2    Guns per 100
2.43 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

15.3    Guns per 100
1.81 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

15 Guns per 100
1.04 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

South Africa   
12.7    Guns per 100
9.41 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

12.5    Guns per 100
0.72 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

12 Guns per 100   
1.45 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

11.9    Guns per 100
2.16 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

11.9    Guns per 100
1.28 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

10.4    Guns per 100
0.63 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

8.6 Guns per 100   
1.03 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

8.5 Guns per 100
1.77 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

7.3 Guns per 100
1.86 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

United Kingdom   
6.2 Guns per 100
0.25 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

3.9 Guns per 100
0.46 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

0.6 Guns per 100
0.06 Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

Drs. Sripal Bangalore is with NYU Langone Medical Center and Dr. Franz Messerli is with St. Luke’s Medical Center.

To add to the study there have been more gun deaths since 1968, than in all the U.S. wars combined. Perhaps now the NRA will listen. Of course they won't.

I'm not against guns/gun owners. I'm against the never-ending stories about unnecessary deaths caused by gun owners who are irresponsible and dangerous. And I'm against those in the NRA who continue to twist the motives of concerned citizens. We're not after all of your guns. What we want is a safer America for our children. Oh, and just a suggestion - you might want to consider getting another NRA/NRAAM spokesmodel - one who doesn't condone and encourage water-boarding torture. You know the one I mean.

Recent Diary: Man Legally Stalks Children's Baseball Game: 'I've Got A Gun & There's Nothing You Can Do About It'

Visit: Moms Demand Action For Gun Sense In America - a very successful non-partisan organization that works to find solutions.

Originally posted to Leslie Salzillo on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 02:04 AM PDT.

Also republished by Repeal or Amend the Second Amendment (RASA), Shut Down the NRA, and Firearms Law and Policy.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I've read a couple of interesting studies that (9+ / 0-)

    …might be of interest to those who contemplate US gun policy:

    1.  Only one gun law is necessary to cut shootings and gun deaths to a fraction of what they are in the US:  Folks can own all the guns they want, but they cannot carry them off of their property.

    2.  The reason that life expectancy is so much lower in the US than the other 40 developed nations is NOT about poor health care but about the magnitude of violent deaths between the ages of 15 and 30.

    •  #1. I like that law, and I could see it improving (6+ / 0-)

      the the tragic situation. It would need stipulations regarding domestic violence.

      #2. Thanks for that info. Don't you hate that it's all too believable. I'm not sure what it's going to take, or how many more lives we'll have to lose, before this country not only demands action - but procures solutions.

      "In this world, hate has never yet dispelled hate. Only love can dispel hate." ~ Buddha

      by Leslie Salzillo on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 03:17:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That is actually pretty close (5+ / 0-)

      to how the Supreme Court currently interprets the Second Amendment in Heller: owning a single firearm in one's home for self-defense cannot be banned, either by law or in practice.

      All other aspects - types of weapons, licensing requirements, where it can be carried outside the home, etc., are left to federal, state, and local laws, and the court went out of its way to reiterate its support for such laws.

      Quite a bit different from what the gun crowd would have you believe.

      I am a warrior for peace. And not a gentle man... Steve Mason, 1940-2005

      by Wayward Wind on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 04:17:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  1. Close the private sales loophole (0+ / 0-)

      by instituting Universal background checks.
      2. License to own.
      3. Permit to carry that takes time/experience/references/clean record to earn.

      IOW, a permit to own in your home is like a learner's permit to carry but you still have to pass a stringent proficiency test and other criteria before you can carry in public.

      "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

      by LilithGardener on Fri May 02, 2014 at 06:15:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! (8+ / 0-)

    I’ve said before, I will always work with anyone who is willing to make this law work even better. But the debate over repealing this law is over. The Affordable Care Act is here to stay. -- President Barack Obama

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 03:08:12 AM PDT

  •  Gotta love the objectivity of someone who says (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy, FrankRose

    "Lets compare gun laws and gun crimes with those of our friend and trading partner that we share a border of thousands of miles with to the north...and refuse to compare with those of our friend and trading partner that we share a border of thousands of miles with to the south."

    And in response to Pluto's comment, the law in question is already in place in Mexico (Article 10 of Mexico's constitution, revised in 1971). Mexico has much stricter gun laws than the US and about three times the firearm homicide rate (the ABC story linked in the diary lists South Africa as compared to the US, so I think adding Mexico is fair game).

    However, Pluto is wrong about the life expectancy. According to the CDC, in 2010 there were 15,832 violence related deaths (all causes) in the 15-30 age group, compared to 2,468,435 for the population as a whole, or about 0.6% of the total. Even given their younger age than average, they are not going to be a huge drag downward on the average life expectancy. For comparison, there were 21,467 unintentional deaths in that age group in 2010 (of which 214 were gun related).

    Leslie and others like to pick and choose countries by some criteria that just coincidentally lets them ignore countries that have strict gun control and high crime rates, because otherwise the causal link they are desperately trying to demonstrate falls apart.

    And you will only ever hear talk about gun violence. For instance, while you may hear about the UK as having strict gun laws and lower gun crime, you'll never hear anyone like Leslie mention that since the last round of UK gun restrictions, her chance of being mugged, burgled or raped in the UK has gone up to several times what it is in the US. Similarly, violent crime rates have gone up in Australia. While in the US, violent crime rates (including with guns) have gone down.

    Which apparently means we need more gun control.

    •  REally? (8+ / 0-)

      Violent crime in England and Wales is continuing to fall, according to a study of figures from NHS hospitals. There were 12 percent fewer injuries from violent incidents in 2013, compared with the previous year. Researchers from Cardiff University found 235,000 people were treated following attacks last year - a drop of over 32,000. VoR's Tim Walklate spoke to Professor Jonathan Shepherd, lead author of the study.

      Here is an article from a sociologist in England explaining the decline

    •  That's an interesting comment (7+ / 0-)
      For instance, while you may hear about the UK as having strict gun laws and lower gun crime, you'll never hear anyone like Leslie mention that since the last round of UK gun restrictions, her chance of being mugged, burgled or raped in the UK has gone up to several times what it is in the US. Similarly, violent crime rates have gone up in Australia.
      Interesting, that is, because according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales, violent crime from 1995 (just before the horrific 1996 Dunblane masscre that led to more restrictive gun measure in the UK) to the most recent available data (April 2012 to March 2013) went from 4,176 per 1,000 in 1995 (prior to Dunblane) to 1,915 per 1,000  in 2012/13.

      Maybe, perhaps, there's a place where going from 4,176 to 1,915 can accurately be described as having "gone up," but I'm unaware of it.

      With respect to Australia, the Australia Institute of of Criminology likely would disagree that violent crime rates in recent times (2011 in the graph below) are higher than they were in the past.

      Australian Violent Crime Victimization photo AustraliaVCrime_zpsa25a4ab7.jpg

      •  We bringing (5+ / 0-)

        real data is not going to change the perception created by manipulators in the gunwolrd that the Uk and Australia are now worse of because of the g restrictions, despite all kind of data indicating the contrary. It's not just crimes its also accidents by guns and suicides going down

      •  Per 100,000? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sharon Wraight, Iberian

        I think there are a couple of zeros missing and the rate you quote should be per 100,000 rather than 1,000.

        There are two measures used in England and Wales (necessary to quote the other nations in the UK separately as they have their own juresdiction and legal system.) The first is the number of crimes reported to the police, the second is the Crime Survey. The two can show divergent trends. A typical example is the reporting of sexual assaults where improved police handling of victims has led to an increase in the number reported to the police, despite the more accurate Survey showing a reduction.

        IIRC, one of the factors that led to an improvement in the National Well-Being indices from 2012 to 2013 was the reduction in the perception of being at risk from crime.

        "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

        by Lib Dem FoP on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 05:53:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  More (3+ / 0-)

      Knifes and other sharp instruments, such as broken bottles, made up the largest proportion of weapons involved in offences currently recorded as homicides at 35% of the total, down slightly on the previous year's 39%.
      A larger proportion of females at 16% than males at 4% were strangled or asphyxiated. Homicides involving shooting, of which each gender was involved in five making ten overall, were at their lowest number since 1980.

      One more thing. After a ban of weapons there are going to be a lot of minor weapon charges, because having weapons is now a problem or walking with them or not having permits or legal ways to store them.

      •  Counterpoint (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The British Crime Survey (BCS) (formerly called the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW)) has been widely criticized for a variety of reasons, by people up to and including the head of the Home Office police research group, so I would take any figures derived from that source with grain of salt.

        However, if you do wish to use CSEW figures, here's a handy graph from them showing their murder rate from several years before they banned handgun possession up through 2011. Use it in good health to make your point.

        But it is really, really nice that you guys are the ones to point out that 17 years after a comprehensive handgun ban(2014), murder rates in the UK are finally at the same level they were 17 years before the ban(1980). If I had made a point like that about the indisputably astounding effectiveness of gun control in affecting the murder rate, no one would take it seriously. But since you said it, I guess it has to be accepted as gospel...

        In other news, the EU did a study on European crime rates, independent of any particular country's desire to put a spin on things. A news article on it is here, titled "UK is violent crime capital of Europe".

        •  Nonsense - you are misreading. (3+ / 0-)

          The very link to the Parliamentary Select Committee you give makes exactly the opposite case. The Select Committee criticize the Police statitistics are support the BCS as more reliable.

          Measurement of crime is based on two main statistical sources: the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and Police Recorded Crime (PRC) data. The CSEW and PRC provide strong evidence that the overall volume of crime has been falling. However, there is an accumulation of substantial and credible evidence indicating that the PRC data do not represent a full and accurate account of crime in England and Wales. The evidence that the police under records crime may exaggerate the rate of decrease in crime in some areas and category of crime.
          It's the number of crimes reported by the police rather than the BCS that are being understated. The police figures are so unreliable that they are no longer considered to be appropriate to use for statistical purposes.

          Your graph is totally irrelevant to the argument about gun control and presumably has been quoted to discred arguments in favor. For a start, the spike shown in 2001/2 relates to a large number of murders presumed to have been undertaken by a doctor, Harold Shipman, in many years leading up to his conviction of a sample 5. In those years a series of reports came out which suggest that he murdered up to 250 of his patients and these were added to the number reported. The number of those killed by guns pales into insignificance. In fact you would have to extend your graph to the end of your first paragraph in order to show them separately. The numbers have reduced from an annual rate of around 60 before the 1997 Act to around 40 today (with a statistical blip in 2011 caused by a killing spree of by an individual who owned guns legally). The latest figures for 2013 are even better:

          The crime rate in England and Wales has fallen by an unexpected 15% to an estimated 7.5m offences, its lowest level since the official survey began 33 years ago.

          The fall is one of the biggest in the history of the authoritative Crime Survey of England and Wales, and was driven by a 22% fall in violent crime, a 25% fall in some types of household theft, a 15% fall in vandalism and a 10% fall in car crime.

          The murder rate in England and Wales also showed a slight fall in 2013, down to 551, and is now nearly 50% below the 2001-02 peak of 1,047, which included many of the victims of Harold Shipman.

          The claim that England and Wales are now much safer than 20 years ago is reinforced by figures showing that even antisocial behaviour fell by 7% last year, extending a six-year decline.

          Note the use of AUTHORATIVE in relation to the BCS!

          "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

          by Lib Dem FoP on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 08:24:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Bullshit (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Glen The Plumber

          Full and complete Bullcrap.

          First you clear said its gone UP. Now when clear data show the contrary you come with some article FROM 2009, published by the Telegraph saying oh how crappy is the Labor party.

          Violent crime down
          Violent crimes with guns down
          Suicides with guns down
          Accidents with guns down

          Australia the same. No you can massage whatever truth you feel compelled to believe , but me i believe in science

        •  thanks for the data! (0+ / 0-)

          I'm a big believer in data as source for policy. It cuts though a lot of the emotional debates and hot air. It can be a two-edge sword, it doesn't play favorites, but good data really helps. Thanks.

    •  Thought I'd save space in this diary, Shamash. (7+ / 0-)

      Here is the full list. Apologies for the format - couldn't figure it out:

      Country    Guns per 100    Total Firearm-related Deaths per 100,000

      United States    88.8    10.2
      Switzerland    45.7    3.84
      Finland    45.3    3.64
      Sweden    31.6    1.47
      Norway    31.3    1.78
      France    31.2    3
      Canada    30.8    2.44
      Austria    30.4    2.94
      Iceland    30.3    1.25
      Germany    30.3    1.1
      New Zealand    22.6    2.66
      Greece    22.5    1.5
      Belgium    17.2    2.43
      Luxembourg    15.3    1.81
      Australia    15    1.04
      South Africa    12.7    9.41
      Turkey    12.5    0.72
      Denmark    12    1.45
      Malta    11.9    2.16
      Italy    11.9    1.28
      Spain    10.4    0.63
      Ireland    8.6    1.03
      Portugal    8.5    1.77
      Israel    7.3    1.86
      United Kingdom    6.2    0.25
      Netherlands    3.9    0.46
      Japan    0.6    0.06

      "In this world, hate has never yet dispelled hate. Only love can dispel hate." ~ Buddha

      by Leslie Salzillo on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 06:14:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Important to note (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sharon Wraight, Iberian

        The figure for the UK is misleading in that generally speaking only firearms for vermin control, hunting and target shooting are legal. There are two broad categories of gun "certificates".  Shotguns are the most common and may not have a "pump action" with more than three cartridges. Owners must show to the police a legitimate reason for owning these together with very strict conditions on storage before getting a "Shotgun Certificate":

          The precise requirements for storage of firearms are not actually specified in law. The legislation merely says that they "must be stored securely at all times so as to prevent, so far as is reasonably practicable, access to the guns by unauthorized persons". In practice, a steel cabinet constructed and certified to comply with BS 7558 and Rawlbolted to a solid wall is the norm. The vast majority of commercially available gun and rifle cabinets meet the necessary standards. If your premises have shared access, for example if you live in a block of flats, the requirements may be more stringent. In all cases the requirement to prevent access to the firearms by "unauthorised persons", means anyone who doesn't personally hold a FAC. This means that even members of your family must not have keys to the cabinet or even know where you keep them.
        A "Firearms Certificate" is require for other weapons however there are a large number of "prohibited weapons"
        The term "prohibited weapon" covers a multitude of devices including, but not limited to, machine guns, rocket launchers, pepper sprays, semi-automatic and pump-action centrefire rifles, disguised firearms, grenades, torpedoes and "any firearm which either has a barrel less than 30cm in length or is less than 60cm in length overall" (the most common member of this last group is a cartridge loading pistol).

        You will realize that most handguns are below these minimum lengths (1 and 2 "metric feet"), even athletics starting pistols are banned. Possession of one requires the written permission of the Home Secretary and is only given in exceptional cases - an example might be the cases of politicians who have had credible death threats and are obvious targets of terrorists.

        Simple possession of a gun without a licence carries a mandatory minimum sentence of 5 years (unless the judge assesses there are exceptional circumstances) or 3 years if between 16 and 18 years old. Sentencing guidelines provide that any offence involving the use of firearms, even imitation ones, should double the time in prison.

        Because of this most firearms deaths are either suicide (especially among farmers) or accidental.  The homicide rate in the UK is actually 0.04 per 100,000 compared to 3.6 in the USA or 90 times the rate. Source: 2010 and 2011 shown as the latest available here

        "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

        by Lib Dem FoP on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:27:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You know that the problem with Mexico (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, Sharon Wraight

      is mainly the drug trade, but yes, Mexico is a gun fetish culture at least on par with the US.
      Your bringing in Mexico seems to validate the diarist's point.
      Your point about the gun law on the books neglects enforcement or the lack of it, and Mexico is awash in corruption and enforcement of any law is spotty.

      You can't make this stuff up.

      by David54 on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:12:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  p.s. Anyone like me? Hmmm. I can assure you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, Sharon Wraight

      given my past, and what I have learned from it, my chances of being mugged, burgled, or raped anywhere  - have gone down significantly. Such a callous statement, Shamash:

      you'll never hear anyone like Leslie mention that since the last round of UK gun restrictions, her chance of being mugged, burgled or raped in the UK has gone up to several times what it is in the US.

      "In this world, hate has never yet dispelled hate. Only love can dispel hate." ~ Buddha

      by Leslie Salzillo on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:21:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks nt (4+ / 0-)

    nosotros no somos estúpidos

    by a2nite on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 04:00:51 AM PDT

  •  Practical Example (6+ / 0-)

    Yesterday there was a tragedy in a school in Leeds, England where a teacher was killed. A 15 year old pupil is in custody. She was stabbed to death and the pupil was apparently overpowered by other teachers.

    The motivation for the attack has not been made public however questioning of the alleged killer and, if and when convicted, there will be a chance to assess the reasons and risks of similar attacks through his subsequent examination.

    I cannot help wondering how that would have played out in the USA with the far greater accessibility to firearms and the gun culture. How many more teachers and pupils would have been murdered?  

    "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

    by Lib Dem FoP on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 04:01:49 AM PDT

  •  Isn't that like 140 to 1? n/t (0+ / 0-)

    It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

    by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 04:23:03 AM PDT

  •  Somehow missed this diary earlier (0+ / 0-)

    and just now republished it to the Firearms Law and Policy group.

    Interesting that South Africa is number 3 and Switzerland is number 3 behind us.

    I'll bet if we had Switzerland's registration and permitting requirements we'd have much lower rates.

    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

    by LilithGardener on Fri May 02, 2014 at 06:10:19 PM PDT

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