GOP voters go to the polls in North Carolina on Tuesday to pick their candidate to go up against Senator Kay Hagan (D. NC). The primary has been battle between establiment backed candidate, Speaker of the North Carolina House, Thom Tillis (R. NC), Tea Party favorite, Dr. Greg Brannon (R. NC) and Rev. Mark Harris (R. NC). For a while, it looked like the great GOP civil war wasn't a real problem in this primary:
http://abcnews.go.com/...
The feisty personalities and anti-establishment fervor that fed tea party challenges in recent Republican U.S. Senate primaries are largely missing this year, a troubling sign for Democrats who want the GOP to nominate candidates with limited appeal.
In North Carolina, a once-promising clash between an establishment Republican and two harder-right rivals has yet to catch fire, with the May 6 primary approaching. Longtime activists say they find little awareness, let alone excitement, among conservative voters, even though Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is a top target in November.
Asked about Democrats who say North Carolina Republicans are fighting a "civil war," former Guilford County GOP chairman Marcus Kindley said, "They wish."
The picture is similar elsewhere.
Early pledges to oust Republican senators seen as insufficiently ideological by some tea partyers fizzled in Texas, South Carolina and Tennessee. In Kentucky, tea party-backed Matt Bevin is struggling against Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
A Colorado tea partyer stepped aside to let a congressman run unimpeded for the Senate. In Georgia, the tea party has not coalesced around any of the seven GOP Senate candidates.
These contests show that the tea party's dramatic emergence in 2009 and 2010 doesn't guarantee continued success. Conservative insurgencies need the right mix of money, angry and energized voters, magnetic personalities and some degree of campaign experience among those running furthest to the right. - AP, 4/27/14
Yet PPP's latest poll shows that a runoff is still highly likely:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's final poll of the North Carolina Republican Senate primary finds that Greg Brannon and Mark Harris are finally picking up some steam, but that it may be too little too late. Thom Tillis leads right at the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff, followed by Brannon at 28% and Harris at 15% with the other candidates combining for a total of 8%. 11% of voters remain undecided so that should give Tillis the breathing room needed to get over 40%, but it doesn't look as certain as it did a week ago.
The momentum has been on the anti-establishment candidates' side as the race has come to a close. Brannon's support has increased 8 points in the final week of the campaign and Harris' has increased by 4 points. Their increases in support come as voters report having seen more from their campaigns- they've each had an 8-9 point increase in the percentage that have seen their tv ads, while Tillis was already pretty much maxed out on that front.
Negative ads against Tillis have also started to take more of a toll. His net favorability rating with Republican primary voters has declined 9 points in the last week +32 at 56/24 previously to now +23 at 52/29. 73% of voters now report having seen negative ads against Tillis and they're having an impact- among those who've seen them Tillis' favorability is only 47/38, and he leads Brannon just 36/35. - PPP, 5/5/14
So it's no sure thing. But even if Tillis eeks out a victory, the Tea Party still wins. More below the fold.
While there's some truth to this argument that this year's batch of Tea Party candidates (Milton Wolf, Steve Stockman, Ben Sasse, Lee Bright, Matt Bevin, Chris McDaniel) are all lousy candidates and the North Carolina GOP primary is no different:
http://www.usnews.com/...
North Carolina Republican Senate contender Greg Brannon is a first-time candidate for public office who has flirted with conspiracy theories about the Sept. 11 attacks, suggested the mentally ill have the right to bear arms and is being sued for allegedly misleading investors about a startup company he founded.
Yet in just over a week, when voters trek to the polls in the Tar Heel State’s GOP primary, Brannon has a realistic shot at a victory, if not a victory in the traditional sense. The tea party-backed obstetrician certainly won’t capture the most votes next Monday, but he needs just enough to finish second while keeping establishment favorite North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis under the 40 percent threshold necessary to move on to the general election.
Simply advancing to the July 15 runoff for a mano-a-mano matchup with Tillis would be a win for the insurgent Brannon. But that scenario could imperil GOP hopes of flipping the seat held by Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. – a race that’s close to a must-win for the party if it is to claw back the Senate majority in the fall.
A poll by SurveyUSA released last week found Tillis surging to 39 percent, falling just short of the required marker. While an outright victory looks within reach, most Republicans are still girding for the nomination fight to head into overtime.
“I think everyone is holding out hope that won’t happen,” says Rep. Renee Ellmers, R-N.C., of the runoff. “It’s an unfortunate thing. It’s very real.” - U.S. News, 4/28/14
Oh and there's this guy:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Rev. Mark Harris, one of the eight Republicans competing for the nomination in the North Carolina Senate race, didn't report donations from speaking events at church events as campaign donations.
That may put Harris in campaign finance hot water. The question has arisen in light of a new video showing Rev. Bill Saylor of the Blackwelder Park Baptist Church urging attendees to donate money to Harris (pictured), either as a pastor or a Senate candidate.
"Now, I want you to do this also —we're going to take an offering, all right? We're going to take an offering for Dr. Harris, for his coming and preaching, also for whatever you want to do otherwise for supporting him in this campaign," Saylor said. "I hope you will think about it. He has some materials in his car. If you would like to get more materials and pass them out and thereby get better known in this area, and then when the primaries come, you and all of your friends can vote for him. Amen?"
Blackwelder Park Church is a 501(c)(3) organization and therefore is legally barred from supporting a candidate in an election. Harris has also not reported any of the church donations as campaign donations, according to a review by North Carolina's WRAL.com. Harris shrugged off that fact by saying the money he's received from churches isn't a significant source of revenue. - TPM, 4/29/14
So yeah, with opponents like these, it's no wonder establishment slime bags like Thom Tillis (R. NC) are looking like shoe ins to win their party's nominee:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
The poll found Tillis with 46 percent support among Republican primary voters surveyed. That's above the 40 percent any candidate needs to stop a runoff and win the nomination.
PPP found that Tillis leads the rest of the pack by double digits. After Tillis, Dr. Greg Brannon comes in second with 20 percent support then Rev. Mark Harris with 11 percent support the rest of the field failed to get double digits.
The poll comes just ahead of the May 6 primary. The winner of the primary will face Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) in the general election. - TPM, 4/29/14
But here's the real kicker, though the Tea Party's choice candidate, Dr. Greg Brannon, has failed to really make serious traction in the primary, the Tea Party still won this primary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Tillis has had to tack pretty far to the right in order to appeal to the Republican primary electorate that holds these views, and put away his fairly weak field of opponents. It's a situation somewhat reminiscent of what Mitt Romney had to do to nail down the Presidential nomination in 2012, and a lot of the positions he took in his protracted primary contest ended up coming back to bite him in the general election. It will be interesting to see if Tillis faces a similar fate this fall because of the stances he's had to take to survive the primary. - PPP, 4/29/14
Here's the proof:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
While Mr. Tillis is viewed as the favorite of mainstream Republicans, he is far from moderate: Under his leadership, the legislature passed broad restrictions on voting, rejected the Medicaid expansion provided under President Obama’s health care law and passed an amendment to ban same-sex marriage, among other measures.
Ms. Hagan has already telegraphed the strategy she would use against Mr. Tillis. She plans to attack him on ethical grounds — Mr. Tillis paid two staff members more than $19,000 in severance pay after they resigned amid a sex scandal involving lobbyists — and to highlight his most conservative positions. Mr. Tillis, for instance, has called raising the minimum wage “a dangerous idea.”
Ms. Hagan’s record, said Sadie Weiner, a campaign spokeswoman, “is a strong contrast with Thom Tillis, who leaves North Carolina’s middle-class families hanging out to dry as he pushes his special-interest Tillis-Koch agenda that cut public education by almost $500 million, froze teacher pay, gutted unemployment insurance and opposes raising the minimum wage.” - New York Times, 4/12/14
So Tillis was already a far right candidate who happily did the bidding of Tea Party masters, Art Pope and the Koch Brothers. But he still had the challenge of making himself both a conservative fire brand yet still make himself out to be a smart candidate people can vote for. When you're going up against guys like Brannon, it's not hard to do:
http://www.slate.com/...
The question went first to Heather Grant, an Army nurse and first-time candidate. She drew the line at restoring rights for felons, but: "When you talk about mentally ill, you need to look at the definition. Some people are using that definition to talk about our PTSD experenced veterans, and those are not people we should be telling don't have the right to own a weapon."
Brannon was next, and he started with a short recapitulation of his strict constructionist views. The feds, generally, needed to stay away from these sorts of issues; they were up to the states. But there were risks. "I give a lovely lady some medicine for postpartum depression, like our troops coming back home," he said. "We're having the federal government decide that that one-week episode of her life will stop her from a God-given natural right to self-defense? That's why it's important to understand the federal role, the state role, and the local role."
Tillis went next, and for the first time in the 60-minute debate, he criticized Brannon from the left. "Violent felons and people with mental health problems need to be rehabilitated, and they need help," he said. "You can't put a gun in the hand of someone who represents a danger to themself or to society. I understand the concept Dr. Brannon said in his words about the Second Amendment, but folks, this is about being practical." - Slate, 4/22/14
And Brannon and Harris made some real attempts to try and take Tillis down in the primary:
http://www.wral.com/...
"It is so critical that we have someone who is electable," Rev. Mark Harris of Charlotte said when asked what distinguished him from the other candidates. "There are two individuals on this platform tonight who carry with them baggage that I believe Kay Hagan will use to rip them apart."
Harris was referring to House Speaker Thom Tillis and Dr. Greg Brannon of Cary. Polls have consistently shown either one of the three as most likely to win the May 6 primary or participate in a summer runoff primary. The winner will take on Hagan, an incumbent Democrat.
A fourth candidate, Wilkesboro nurse Heather Grant, did not draw fire from her three competitors. Consistent with her other debate and forum appearances, Grant also passed on the opportunity to be critical of the other candidates.
"For me, this race is not about being the next senator. What it is about is the future of our nation," she said.
The debate was the third televised showdown between the four candidates and the last before the primary. It was hosted by UNC-TV at the station's Research Triangle Park studios.
Harris landed his first jab at Brannon, referencing a lawsuit in which the obstetrician was found civilly liable for misleading investors and ordered to pay more than $500,000 in restitution and legal fees.
Most polls show Tillis is closest to achieving the 40 percent support needed to avoid a runoff, leaving Harris and Brannon jockeying for second place and the opportunity to call for a runoff.
Brannon largely brushed off Harris' criticism, preferring instead to focus on Tillis.
He implied several times that states like North Carolina made a mistake when it deferred to the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act.
"The state must say no to the Supreme Court," Brannon said.
Brannon left UNC-TV studios before he could be pressed on that answer. But throughout the debate, Brannon insisted he was the only candidate with the constitutional knowledge to represent North Carolina in the Senate.
He also criticized Tillis for saying on a radio show that the ACA, referred to as "Obamacare" by some, was "a good idea" that couldn't be paid for. - WRAL, 4/28/14
But Tillis didn't take his primary opponents for granted:
http://www.newsobserver.com/...
A Tillis campaign mailer sent this week hit Greg Brannon for not paying his 2013 property taxes on time. “Senate candidate Greg Brannon has failed to pay his own taxes,” it reads next to a darkened image of Brannon. “How can he be a voice for North Carolina taxpayers?”
The reverse side touts Tillis as a “tax reformer” and says he’s the “only candidate with a proven record lowering taxes,” a reference to 2013 efforts to cut income taxes in the General Assembly.
The Tillis mailer – sent to an undisclosed number of voters – is the the campaign’s first attack piece on a Republican rival, coming just as early voting starts and the campaign enters the final days.
“We felt that it was important to point out what is basically a matter of public record on his property taxes,” said Jordan Shaw, Tillis’ campaign manager and spokesman. - News Observer, 4/25/14
And Tillis was on a role, scoring endorsements from the NRA and Right To Life, which helped his strategy of winning over social conservatives inclined to vote for guys like Brannon and Harris:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/...
For months, Republican Thom Tillis’ Senate campaign touted his accomplishments and focused his attacks on Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, acting like a frontrunner with his eye on November.
Now, in the final days before the May 6 primary, Tillis is changing his strategy. Last week, he mailed a flier to voters that attacked his top GOP rival for not paying his property taxes on time. He also debuted a TV ad that trumpets his opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.
Tillis hit the social conservative issues Saturday in his speech at the 2nd Congressional District GOP convention in Sanford. “We need a Congress that understands the sanctity of life, the sanctity of traditional values, the sanctity of traditional marriage,” he said.
The shift in approach is an uneasy transition for the House speaker, who is not a loud voice on social conservative issues compared to Greg Brannon, a Cary obstetrician and tea party candidate who wants to outlaw abortion, and Mark Harris, a Charlotte pastor who helped lead the 2012 campaign to ban gay marriage.
Instead, Tillis has preferred to talk about the economy, whether promoting his record of tax cuts or eliminating regulations.
The change comes as Tillis, who is leading in polls and fundraising, tries to pull away from Brannon and reach the 40 percent of the vote needed to win the nomination outright. Republican strategists say a July 15 runoff would cripple the nominee’s chances in November, though a rightward shift too far may hurt him as well.
“He’s touching base with all segments in the Republican primary to get past 40 percent,” said Marc Rotterman, a Republican media strategist who called the move smart. - Charlotte Observer, 4/27/14
And this was pissing off his rivals:
http://www.newsobserver.com/...
But rival Mark Harris’ campaign is pushing back. Spokesman Mike Rusher suggested touting Tills as a leader on the issues was disingenuous, saying his “actions don’t line up with the words.” He referred to Tillis’ remarks in 2012, amid the marriage amendment campaign, in which he told a college audience he expected the ban to be repealed in 20 years because of changing political sentiment.
“This is a perfect example of the massive difference between what Mr. Tillis is saying now to a conservative audience and what he did as an elected official with public statements predicting the marriage amendment would soon be overturned,” Harris said in a statement Monday.
Harris has staked out ground as the social conservative candidate, winning endorsements from the political committees of the National Organization of Marriage, Concerned Women for America and the Family Research Council, three leading organizations.
“How in the world can (Tillis) take that much credit if NOM has endorsed Mark over him,” Rusher said. - News Observer, 4/28/14
And Brannon and Harris aren't the only Republicans trying to stop Tillis from winning the GOP nominee:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
In a scathing open letter on Friday, state Rep. Robert Brawley (R) picks out seven issues he thinks Democrats will use to attack Tillis.
"If they’re going to attack, that’s what I would attack,” Brawley told the News-Observer in an interview published Tuesday. “Every issue in the General Assembly is going to have to be dealt with between now and a November election."
Brawley questions Tillis' ethics by pointing out state legislature votes in which Tillis may have sided with special interests groups. He also paints the Senate candidate as a hypocrite by naccusing Tillis of vocalized one position, but supporting another. Brawley even calls Tillis a bully.
"Which Thom is he?" Brawley asks in the letter. "The Thom that says he favors open government yet he fires a chair of finance (me) for not agreeing with him. Thom has occasionally snapped at members and visitors who disagree with him. It was also suggested to Thom’s inner circle to start rumors questioning my mental health. Is that bullying?" - TPM, 4/22/14
But no matter, it looked like the GOP establishment was celebrating Tillis' victory prematurely:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/...
Tillis is the prototype of an establishment candidate. The onetime Pricewaterhouse- Coopers partner-turned-ladder-climbing-state-legislative-leader is a Republican donor's dream, and he's got the fundraising results to prove it. He has ties to Wall Street and the business community, political experience, and a strategist's sensibility: He led the successful GOP effort to retake the General Assembly in 2010, giving Republicans unified control of state government for the first time in more than a century. And Tillis is disciplined. He is consistently on message, never straying into dangerous waters. In short, Tillis, with his pragmatic streak and country-club credentials, represents just about everything tea partiers rose up to oppose.
Thus far, he has handled that delicate matter largely by keeping a low profile in the race, whenever possible avoiding forums where his conservative opponents might raise questions about his ideological fidelity. (Unlike Harris, whose evangelical charisma is one of his political strengths, Tillis didn't seem at all disappointed that the candidates' speeches at the Pinehurst forum were limited to three minutes apiece.) The plan is for him simply to run out the primary clock—while teammates like American Crossroads, which had begun singing his praises that week to the tune of $1 million in ads, hold off his rivals.
As he mingled with the retirees in the ballroom, Tillis was buoyed by more than just the National Right to Life endorsement. He had also just learned that he was to receive the enthusiastic backing of the U.S. Chamber; the National Rifle Association would soon follow suit. Careful as Tillis is, he couldn't help but crow a bit, saying that he'd love to become chairman of the NRSC, helping to elect other Republican senators in the future—presuming that he won his own race, of course.
But his confidence to some degree belied the primary danger he still faced: being forced into a runoff with a rival to his right. Two years ago, the Texas establishment stood behind Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in his primary battle against one Ted Cruz. Dewhurst finished first in the primary, but Cruz took him to a runoff. The rest is history.
Forty percent is the portion of the vote required to avoid a runoff in North Carolina, and it will be the first real test of success for Tillis, and for the McConnell strategy. The goal of all of these early machinations—and the millions in accompanying spending—is to clear Tillis's path by clearing the field. If Tillis doesn't hit the 40 percent mark, that effort fails. The contest suddenly becomes a one-on-one battle between an establishment favorite and an insurgent conservative, in a low-turnout race in the middle of the summer, no less. And that's when the contest could turn ugly, expensive, and politically costly.
In early April, just as the outside money was starting to get spent, all signs pointed to Tillis being comfortably ahead but still far from assured of avoiding a second round of voting in July. A poll commissioned by American Crossroads and conducted in mid-April found Tillis winning 27 percent of the vote—17 points ahead of Harris, and 11 points ahead of his other top rival, Greg Brannon, a FreedomWorks-backed obstetrician who characterizes himself as a "servant-citizen" steeped in constitutional principles. ("There's nobody in this race that understands the Constitution like I do. The only guy that's even close to me is Ted Cruz," he told National Journal.) Brannon had been unable to attend the Pinehurst event (he was in surgery), but in a town that doubles as a retirement mecca and a tea-party center, he nonetheless drew as many supporters as Tillis.
"You can buy TV, but the most persuasive deliverer of message is my neighbor," says Russ Walker, the national political director for FreedomWorks. To that end, he says, FreedomWorks volunteers have already knocked on 60,000 doors, planted 24,000 lawn signs, and made 100,000 phone calls on Brannon's behalf. "That kind of energy is key. One-on-one sells the candidate." - National Journal, 5/1/14
And the early and heavy advertising was paying off:
http://www.newsobserver.com/...
House Speaker Thom Tillis has made big gains getting his name in front of voters who two months ago had little idea who he was, according to a new Elon University poll.
Tillis’ name recognition has jumped from 38 percent in February to 63 percent this month – far outdistancing his two main rivals in the Republican primary to face U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan. Only 26 percent of those surveyed recognized Rev. Mark Harris’ name and just 21 percent know who Dr. Greg Brannon is, the poll found.
Among Republican voters, Tillis has 73 percent name recognition compared to 35 percent for Harris and 28 percent for Brannon.
But knowing doesn’t mean liking. Just 21 percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Tillis, which is a slight improvement over the 18 percent in February. - News Observer, 5/2/14
But of course the establishment wasn't taking any chances:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is pumping money into ads for establishment Republican favorites in North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska, while pointedly calling them conservatives and highlighting their opposition to Washington bureaucrats.
The commercials, which begin airing on Wednesday at a cost of more than $2.2 million, represent the powerful business organization's determination to tip the balance in crowded, Republican primaries and help the GOP nominate viable general election candidates in Senate races.
The ads' description of establishment candidates such as Georgia's Jack Kingston and North Carolina's Thom Tillis as "consistent conservative" and "bold conservative" is designed to neutralize criticism and attract the support of far-right GOP voters who have a major say in primaries. - Huffington Post, 4/29/14
And all the big GOP names have been out to help Tillis seal the deal like this clown:
http://www.newsobserver.com/...
Gov. Pat McCrory on Tuesday further injected himself into the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, endorsing House Speaker Thom Tillis ahead of the May 6 vote.
“I’m proud to announce that tomorrow I plan to vote on the ballot for Thom Tillis for U.S. Senate,” said McCrory, who will vote early in Charlotte. “He is a man of incredible integrity. He is a person with incredible experience and a track record of success and he’s an individual who understand business and understands job creation.”
McCrory and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced their support for Tillis at SMT, a sheet metal fabricator just northwest of Raleigh. The company’s CEO, Susan Rothecker, is the mother of a Republican statehouse lobbyist.
The governor called Tillis “his partner” and Tillis called McCrory “his friend,” as they jointly touted legislative achievements under Republican control, such as efforts to cut taxes and improve the economy. “The results are undeniable,” Tillis said, referring to the state’s dropping unemployment rate. - News Observer, 4/29/14
And this loser:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
"Thom is a conservative who has been solving problems in North Carolina as Speaker of the House and I am confident he will do the same in Washington," Romney said in an email sent out to supporters by the Tillis campaign. - TPM, 5/5/14
And of course, this guy:
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/...
Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., endorsed North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis as he seeks the Republican nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation.
“Thom Tillis is a proven conservative leader with an impressive track record of results for North Carolina businesses and families,” said Bush, who has increasingly opened the door to running for president in 2016 in recent weeks, on Thursday. “His work on key issues like improving education, keeping taxes low and eliminating burdensome regulations is a testament to his leadership as North Carolina’s House speaker. It is critically important that Republicans win a majority in the U.S. Senate, and I am confident that the road to a majority runs through Thom Tillis in North Carolina.”
“I am honored to have the support of Gov. Bush, who I have respected and admired for several years,” said Tillis. “His record in Florida speaks for itself and he is one of the most respected leaders we have in this nation. I look forward to working with him during the course of the campaign as we continue to expand our network of conservatives who want to take back the U.S. Senate.” - Sunshine State News, 5/2/14
Yes, Tillis had everything going for him until this guy showed up:
http://www.slate.com/...
Meanwhile, Rand Paul's decision to swing into North Carolina for one Greg Brannon rally has inspired a second look at the doctor and inveterate Constitution-quoter's campaign. It looks, according to state-based pollsters, like Thom Tillis blew past Brannon and other challengers thanks to an immense TV ad and money advantage. From my own limited observation, it doesn't seem like Brannon's professorial and occasionally specious attempts to answer every question with a Constitutional citation (he basically invalidated Marbury v. Madison by claiming nothing the Supreme Court does is enforcable) have caught fire the way that Rand Paul's or Ted Cruz's populism libertarianism did. The most memorable Paul TV ad, for example, portrayed government and big business as a "machine" crushing the rights and opportunities of you and me. The most memorable Brannon ad consists of him shooting some guns.
But John Frank has looked at Brannon's campaign, noted that he is doing few public events in the stretch, and theorized about a secret weapon.
From a dozen offices across the state, the campaign says hundreds are working polling locations and phone banks to turn out supporters.
FreedomWorks, a national tea party organizer based in Washington that endorsed Brannon, is helping to coordinate hundreds more who have distributed 70,000 door hangers, 22,000 yard signs and 4,000 bumper stickers to boost the campaign. - Slate, 5/2/14
So yeah, the fight isn't over yet and it's getting down to the wire:
http://abcnews.go.com/...
On the eve of Tuesday's primary, Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, assured Republicans that House Speaker Thom Tillis is "a conservative" with deep roots in the state. Paul, meanwhile, called his candidate, obstetrician Greg Brannon, a "dragon slayer" and the "true believer" in an eight-person race watched nationally for its influence over the party and the makeup of the U.S. Senate.
Even Hagan, one of the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbents, got involved in the Republican primary by taking a page out of her party's political playbook. In a mailing, she hit Tillis, the fundraising leader in the GOP pack, for saying President Barack Obama's controversial health care law is "a great idea," even as he campaigns to repeal it. Tillis' full quote called the law "a great idea that can't be paid for." Hagan voted for "Obamacare."
The election-eve push was all about inspiring Republicans to vote in Tuesday's GOP primary in a state that narrowly chose Obama in 2008 and Romney four years later. Tuesday's balloting is being hotly monitored in a year in which Republicans are six seats away from a Senate majority and determined to put electable candidates on the ballot.
The primary might not answer the question. If no candidate gets more than 40 percent of the vote Tuesday, Republicans continue their contest through a July runoff — costing the party time and money that could otherwise be spent attacking Hagan. Her defeat is all but necessary if Republicans want to take back control of the Senate, and party leaders were hoping to settle their contest and unite as soon as possible.
"You can't defeat Kay Hagan with a factionalized (party)," Tillis said.
The North Carolina GOP primary is a key test in the 2014 elections for control of the Senate, and the two leading candidates deployed party leaders to help inspire voters to turn out at the polls. - ABC News, 5/5/14
So it's evident that the GOP civil war is alive and well. Now Tillis, Brannon and Harris are all pushing to get their supporters out to the polls tomorrow:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/...
The Charlotte area will be the center of the state’s political universe Monday as the three major Republican candidates for U.S. Senate focus their attention on voters here during the last full day of campaigning.
On the eve of Tuesday’s primary, N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis will be knocking on doors in Huntersville; the Rev. Mark Harris will be making phone calls at a get-out-the-vote site in Charlotte; and Dr. Greg Brannon will appear with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., during a noon rally at uptown Charlotte’s NASCAR Hall of Fame.
They and five others are vying for the chance to take on U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, the Democrat incumbent from Greensboro, in November.
“Mecklenburg County has about 10 percent of the vote, no matter how you slice it,” said Mike Rusher, campaign spokesman for Mark Harris, who pastors First Baptist Church of Charlotte. “Any county that holds that big a percentage – your success or failure could be tied to how well you do here.”
The GOP race, which will be decided in a July 15 runoff if none of the candidates gets at least 40 percent of the vote Tuesday, has drawn the attention of the national news media in a year when Republicans are given a good chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate. - Charlotte Observer, 5/4/14
And Hagan has been having fun messing with Tillis as he fights his way to win the primary:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is taking the extra step against state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC), the frontrunner and expected GOP nominee in the North Carolina Senate race, and sending mailers to Republican voters quoting Tillis calling Obamacare a "great idea."
The mailers, reported by The Washington Post, were sent out to Republican voters over the last week ahead of Tuesday's North Carolina Republican primary. The attack strategy is a clear attempt to turn voters off to Tillis by painting him as less than staunchly opposed to Obamacare (a grave sin in Republican primaries).
Tillis is considered by observers to be the stronger general election candidate again Hagan, and the mailers suggest the Hagan camp thinks so, too. Or at least the Hagan camp would prefer to see Tillis endure a runoff rather than win the nomination outright. Tillis needs to get 40 percent support to avoid a runoff and clinch the GOP nomination. The most recent polls of the race have shown Tillis with a comfortable lead above 40 percent in the primary. - TPM, 5/5/14
And the last thing the GOP establishment wants is a runoff and here's why:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Primary runoff elections traditionally draw small turnouts under the best of circumstances. The problem expands in the summer, when many families are on vacation and paying scant attention to politics and other news.
A North Carolina runoff would fall on July 15, and Georgia's would come a week later. Given the timing, "if you had a 15 percent turnout, that would be miraculous," said Marcus Kindley, a former Republican Party chairman for North Carolina's Guilford County, which includes Greensboro.
Results of low-turnout elections are harder to predict. The most motivated voters — who can include tea partyers and other strongly ideological conservatives — tend to have proportionately more influence in such elections. - TPM, 5/2/14
But really Tillis is the weakest candidate in this race because he's the face of the GOP General Assembly's radical agenda backed by Tea Party sugar daddies, Art Pope and the Koch Brothers. And that alone could lead to his electoral loss:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/...
“There are an awful lot of unaffiliated voters and even Republicans who have been repulsed by this general assembly,” said Randy Voller, chairman of the North Carolina state Democratic Party. As evidence, Voller pointed to the weekly Moral Monday protests of the assembly’s legislative agenda that led to nearly 1,000 arrests at the Capitol during the last legislative session. “If you can take the anger and energy from that movement and turn it into action at the ballot box, that’s how Kay Hagan will win.”
To Voller’s point, a recent Elon University poll showed the North Carolina general assembly with just a 27 percent approval rating, compared to 49 percent who disapprove.
“I don’t think it’s surprising to see a legislative body with such low approval ratings, but what is surprising is to see one so consistently down that hasn’t bounded back up when they’re not in session,” said Dr. Kenneth Fernandez, the director of the Elon poll. “You look at the governor, the president, Congress, everyone seems to have bottomed out and are now picking up a little bit. We didn’t see that with the state legislature.”
Fernandez said Elon’s polling showed Tillis with triple the name identification of his GOP primary rivals, in part because of his high profile as House speaker.
For Republican primary voters, Tillis’s record leading the state House will probably be his biggest selling point. The same PPP poll that showed Tillis handily winning likely GOP primary voters also painted a picture of Tuesday’s electorate as mostly male, significantly rural, and very, very conservative. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they do not believe in evolution, 52 percent said they do not believe President Obama was born in the United States, and just 27 percent said they think the U.S. Department of Education continue to exist. Just a quarter said they think the federal government should have the power to set a minimum wage for American workers.
While Democratic operatives see Tillis’s leadership record as a boon to work with, Hagan goes into November with significant challenges of her own, not the least of which is a 35 percent approval rating and a 2010 vote for the Affordable Care Act, which remains unpopular with a majority of North Carolinians. She faces the uphill climb of getting reelected in a midterm year after winning for the first time in 2008 against Sen. Elizabeth Dole with then-wildly popular Obama at the top of the ticket.
“In a presidential election year, Republicans make up 33 percent of voters casting ballots in North Carolina,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics at Catawba College in Salisbury, N.C. “When you go into a midterm year, that 33 percent becomes 37 percent to 38 percent. So what you’re dealing with here is a base election rather than a swing voter election just because of the dynamics of who shows up.”
Bitzer said the dynamic that could best play to Hagan’s favor is the potential backlash against the general assembly and Tillis’s role leading it.
“Can Kay Hagan use that anger and animosity and make Thom Tillis the poster boy for that Democratic anger? If they can sustain that energy going into the fall campaign, it could be as close as everybody is thinking,” Bitzer said. “But if you’re just looking at it from a pure numbers perspective, you gotta think this is going to be a Republican year. “
The only chance Hagan has to keep her seat rests on convincing voters like Leonardo Williams to go to the polls in November and vote for her. A 33-year-old high school music teacher, Williams was so outraged by the assembly’s cuts to public education funding that he attended the Moral Monday protests in Raleigh last summer. - The Daily Beast, 5/5/14
And voter turnout is going to be key for Hagan's chances of re-election:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
The gap between North Carolina’s younger (under 30) and older voters (over 65) is among the most pronounced in the country. In 2012, North Carolina’s seniors voted for Mitt Romney by 29 points, more than twice his 12-point advantage nationally among older voters, according to exit polls. By contrast, President Obama won North Carolina’s young voters by a 35-point margin, better than the 24-point margin he won nationally. This 64-point gap between young and old North Carolinians was nearly twice as large as it was nationally. Lower youth turnout, then, is twice as damaging to Democrats in North Carolina than it is nationally.
North Carolina’s generation gap is a reflection of the profound demographic changes that have transformed the state. Many of the state’s young voters are the children of Northern-born professionals who flocked to jobs in technology, higher education, banking and health care over the last two decades. Others, including students and graduates of the state’s prestigious research universities, are Northern expats themselves.
When young voters stay home, the state reverts to its Republican past and the more conservative bent of the South. And judging from the last midterm election, the plunge in youth turnout could be huge. Eighteen- to 25-year-olds accounted for a mere 3.9 percent of voters in 2010, down from 10.4 percent of voters in 2008, according to the secretary of state’s office. Older voters jumped from 17.5 to 26.1 percent of those turning out.
Mr. Tillis might bail out Ms. Hagan by running a weak campaign. It wouldn’t be the first time that Republicans squandered an excellent opportunity against a vulnerable Democratic senator. But so far this cycle, off-year turnout and the president’s sagging ratings have prevented Democrats from matching Mr. Obama’s performance in 2012, even when Democrats have strong candidates, like Alex Sink (who lost a bid for a House seat in Florida), or weak opponents, like Ken Cuccinelli (who narrowly lost the governor’s race in Virginia). - New York Times, 4/28/14
And it might come down to female voters who help Hagan win re-election:
http://www.businessweek.com/...
"There's no secret that over the last couple of cycles, women have been a disproportionate part of the targeted persuadable voters," said Democratic pollster and strategist John Anzalone, a top campaign adviser to North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan. The larger the gender gap for Democrats, he added, "the more likely they are to win."
Republicans, meanwhile, bristle at the implication that the GOP agenda hurts women. In the 2012 elections, President Barack Obama cruised to re-election, and his party kept control of the Senate in part with their battle cry that on those issues and more, the GOP was waging a "war on women."
Those in the GOP say the November results will be more about the economy and the country's overall direction, with voter discontent toward Obama, his job performance and — critically, his signature health care overhaul — trumping whatever issues Democrats try to emphasize.
Of course, maximizing the gender gap could be tricky for Democrats in a midterm election year when an older, whiter electorate makes it even harder for Democrats to motivate their core supporters and win over independents, who are more conservative.
"In states where Democrats don't win that often, this is not the year they're going to reverse the trend," said Republican pollster Glen Bolger, who works for North Carolina GOP Senate front-runner Thom Tillis. "It's hard to overcome the fundamentals with tactics, no matter how good a campaign you run."
Anzalone conceded as much, but said the Democratic strategy isn't about winning on single, hot-button issues "isolated to women." Instead, it's about a range of issues that combine to "help take Republicans off their narrative." - Bloomberg Businessweek, 4/29/14
Hagan can and has pointed out all the GOP candidates' backwards views when it comes to equal pay, reproductive rights and women's health. Regardless of who wins tomorrow's primary or July's runoff, Hagan is going up against an extremist. Guys like Brannon and Harris only help slimy politicians like Tillis expose their extremist colors in the primary. They get the extremist base riled up making it a challenge for candidates who come off as electable to prove their conservative purity and win over dark money support. And the GOP's extreme agenda and rhetoric have proven to be the death of their potential electoral wins:
http://www.forbes.com/...
Take North Carolina for instance. Kay Hagan has the support of 42 percent of voters while the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Thom Tillis, is at 40 percent. Hagan’s approval rating is at 44 percent – the same as her disapproval number.
Mark Pryor currently holds a 10-point lead in Arkansas and has a 47-38 approval rating, but tanking Democrat numbers are bound to tighten up his race. The same is true of Mary Landrieu’s race in Louisiana where she holds a lead. But Landrieu has her work cut out for her in distancing herself from Obama, a task that she has already been hard at work to do.
And we can all but count West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota as likely Democrat losses.
There are still two things that work to the Democrats’ advantage. The first is that Mitch McConnell is effectively tied with his Democratic challenger and has a 52 percent disapproval rating. The Republican nature of the state still makes him a favorite, especially considering how unpopular Obama is in Kentucky (32 percent approval), but the race is still close.
In Georgia, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn and Democrat candidate Michelle Nunn is currently in a dead heat or ahead of every potential Republican opponent. After more than 10 years since Georgia elected a Democratic senator, it’s a long-shot to see Nunn take the seat, but once again it’s possible.
All of this indicates that the Democrats have a tough road ahead – even tougher than they thought.
But as we’ve seen time and time again, the Republicans aren’t doing anything to help themselves. According to the latest McClatchy-Marist poll, close to 70 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Republicans are doing in Congress.
Why are their numbers so bad?
The Republicans have no message and no strategy. And they’re running out of time to develop one that goes beyond just running against Obama. - Forbes, 4/30/14
Not to mention the ACA could also lead to Tillis' loss:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
“Thom Tillis has a proven record of fighting against Obamacare. Tillis stopped Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion cold. It’s not happening in North Carolina, and it’s because of Thom Tillis.”
The expected GOP Senate nominee for North Carolina is boasting, in effect, that he is the sole reason 500,000 people in the state he would represent will not get health coverage under the Medicaid expansion. This quote comes from a radio ad Tillis ran this week in the GOP Senate primary.
This will be another interesting test of how the actual GOP position on Obamacare — get rid of it and its benefits for millions — will play politically, as the law’s implementation has made it harder and harder for Republicans to campaign on abstract notions of “repeal and replace.” It’s slowly sinking in with the national press that Democrats are not uniformly running away from the law, and that the GOP repeal stance just might have problems of its own. - Washington Post, 4/25/14
If you would like to get involved and donate to Hagan's campaign, you can do so here:
http://www.kayhagan.com/