Thousands of Ukrainian steelworkers -- some of the very people whom the separatists were claiming to represent -- wrested control of Mariupol from pro-Russian separatists who were trying to get the region to secede and either pursue independence or annex themselves to Russia. Two shoes have dropped in the past week. The first is that Russia has withdrawn its complete support from the separatists. The second is that the Ukrainian people are organizing themselves to solidify the legitimacy of the present government. The Financial Times notes that Russia has dropped much of its hostile rhetoric towards Ukraine although they are still pursuing economic warfare by demanding payment of gas debts that they say Ukraine owes.
The workers are employees of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a recent convert to the side of Ukrainian unity, who on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting the separatist cause of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic but endorsing greater local autonomy. His decision to throw his weight fully behind the interim government in Kiev could inflict a body blow to the separatists, already reeling from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s withdrawal of full-throated support last week.
The momentum started to swing in favor of the Ukrainian government following the bloody soccer riots in Odessa which left dozens killed. And given today's developments, it is clear that a Russian invasion of the mainland would be a costly proposition. The Ukrainians are experienced in partisan warfare, with people having fought on both sides in World War II, still in living memory.
There is now a growing consensus that this is a conflict that has to be solved by the Ukrainian people, not by outside powers. And based on our own experience as a nation, we know that people who are under freedom and democracy are much more willing to fight for their homes and their freedom because they have a personal stake in the outcome.
These were the same people who helped bring down the Soviet Union just over 20 years ago:
Metinvest and DTEK, the two subsidiaries in metals and mining of Mr. Akhmetov’s company, System Capital Management, together employ 280,000 people in eastern Ukraine, forming an important and possibly decisive force in the region. They have a history of political activism stretching back to miner strikes that helped bring down the Soviet Union. In this conflict, they had not previously signaled their allegiance to one side or the other.
The occupation of numerous government buildings by "Donetsk People's Republic" separatists had completely paralyzed basic services and brought economic activity in the east to a standstill.
The will of the people in the East is becoming clear. While most are disenchanted by the present government, and there was substantial grassroots support for reuniting with Russia, the great majority of the people there made two things clear. Through the May 11th vote, they made clear they wanted more control over their own affairs. Through numerous polls that had been conducted of the area, they made clear that they still want to be part of Ukraine. The two concepts are not mutually exclusive.
The Ukrainian government is following through and organizing dialogue with the East, which is what Russia wanted in the first place. The more that Ukraine follows through and conducts these dialogues, the more that they will establish legitimacy as a government in the eyes of its people.
But even if Ukraine is able to conduct its May 25th elections peacefully, they are not out of the woods by a long shot. They must still cope with the draconian austerity measures imposed by the IMF as a condition for accepting their loans. This will likely lead to more unrest down the road and more calls to reunite with Russia, which has a much stronger social safety net even without the IMF-imposed austerity.