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There is an interesting article out by Al Cross from the Louisville Courier-Journal newspaper concerning the McConnell-Bevin primary race in KY.  Cross compares a latest Bluegrass Poll to one taken two weeks ago.  Seems that McConnell's lead over Bevin has dropped from 32 to 20 points (current poll has McConnell with 55% support to Bevin at 35%).  As Cross points out, most of those undecided Republicans will either not show at the polls or vote against McConnell; this does not mean that Bevin has a chance to win the primary, but it means that Bevin may get above 40% of the vote.

In other words, Bevin may end up mauling McConnell, and it seems that McConnell knows this.  I have seen more negative ads about Bevin in the last several weeks, and I was wondering if this was just McConnell wanting to really crush his rival and teach a lesson to the Tea Party?  Or was it because McConnell was not feeling all that confident about his own showing?  Cross points out that McConnell is NOW trying to lower expectations by stating that Bevin may get up to 47% of the vote.

So the best scenario that I was hoping for might happen.  While some might have cheered Bevin on to victory from the Democratic side, others have pointed out that Bevin would not have all the negatives that McConnell caries.  So Republicans and DINOS in KY would have someone to get excited about this fall.  Think Rand Paul's twin brother.

However, I was getting very bummed that Bevin was flaming out.  I wanted Bevin to run a better campaign and make McConnell spend more money. Also, McConnell would have to get even nastier against Bevin, and this would piss off more of the Republican base in KY.  Instead, Bevin has made several rookie mistakes, and the Koch brothers decided not to invest in Bevin.  It looked like McConnell would have an easy victory over the Tea Party.   Now, Bevin might do well enough in the primary to humiliate McConnell.

We will see on Tuesday evening.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I too was hoping that Bevin would (5+ / 0-)

    severely damage McTurtle, making Allison's job easier in November.
    Whatever, I just want that old fossil out of there.
    It's more than just a Senate seat, it's a Senate leader knocked out of position.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Sun May 18, 2014 at 05:08:54 PM PDT

  •  I certainly hope McConnell takes a hosing, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buffie

    to think he would be humiliated by anything seems a far stretch.    

    The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis. - Dante Alighieri

    by Persiflage on Sun May 18, 2014 at 05:09:38 PM PDT

  •  When reading this... (4+ / 0-)

    of all things, my mind wandered back to 1992 and the New Hampshire Primary.

    Incumbent President George Bush won 53-37 over Pat Buchanan (who kind of invented the Tea Party but didn't know it). Early that evening Buchanan actually held the lead, but faded as the night wore on. The media were in a feeding frenzy over it when everyone went to bed. Bush literally had 90%+ approval ratings just one year earlier after Gulf War I, now here he was losing a primary in his party to a blatant bigot.

    In the end, it wasn't even that close, but it totally knocked Bush off balance. His Operation Desert Storm Shield of Invincibility was shattered. It was clear that after 12 years of him in the WH as Veep and later president, people had had enough.

    Could this dynamic happen in Kentucky? There's precedence...

  •  Bevin is a terrible candidate, would be a terrible (4+ / 0-)

    Senator.  However, Alison Lundegran Grimes beats Bevin clearly in polls to date, where best she can do is tie McConnell to date in those polls.

    I doubt Bevin wins.  Shame, because that would clear way for Alison Grimes.

    "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

    by mumtaznepal on Sun May 18, 2014 at 07:26:26 PM PDT

  •  If Redstate is any example the "real" con's hate (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmservo433, Pinto Pony, paulex, Paragryne

    Mitch. So they are all going to vote for Bevin. So the question is after Mitch wins the primary - will they come back and vote for Mitch or just stay home? I find the fact that Alison is tied with Mitch encouraging. Alison really needs to run on Kynect and bludgeon Mitch with all his repeal talk.

    if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

    by mrsgoo on Sun May 18, 2014 at 08:07:16 PM PDT

  •  Tea Party motivation behind Bevin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, paulex

    Is absolutely for real.   They send out email chains, promote themselves direct and they have urged tea party groups in Kansas and Missouri to not only donate to their own tea party candidates (here in Kansas Milton Wolfe) but to donate to Bevin.

    They held a rally here in Kansas City at the Bass Pro (yes, this happened) three weeks ago saying that they would "Win back America" and they spent all day raising money for their group and then a specific list of candidates they listed were part of that group.

    Bevin was part of that.   (Yes, Tancredo was another)

    If you ever want to see a rally of gun-toting madness at a sports equipment store, this is it.  I couldn't tell if the drive to get people to donate or if someone was just scaring the shit out of people to fork over the cash.

    But, that's their mantra.  

    I don't know if they have a realistic shot in the Primary.   I dont' think so.   But, if they make Mitch spend now, I'm all for it.

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Sun May 18, 2014 at 10:11:54 PM PDT

  •  I heard smart Kentucky Republicans are happy (0+ / 0-)

    They get to vote against McConnell twice, where Democrats can only vote against him once.  

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