For many years, historians and "alternate history" buffs have speculated about what would have happened if Abraham Lincoln had decided to fight against slavery and preserve the original Union of American states instead of allowing the CSA to secede. As Recedo University Professor Anthony North writes in his annotated version of A Diary of Lincoln: American Pragmatist:
The young idealistic reformer Abraham Lincoln had been gradually, steadily moving in the direction of abolitionism, but a defining moment in his political career turned him away from that path, and ultimately ensured that his Presidency would witness the bloodless partition of the original USA, the establishment of the Confederate States of America, and the perpetuation of slavery for many decades to come.
What was this "defining moment" that Prof. North believes made Lincoln into the weak, pragmatic politician he became, who turned away from the cause of African American freedom and negotiated a partition settlement with the CSA in 1861?
According to Lincoln's Diary, he attended a conference of Republican activists in the late 1850s, where issues of race and slavery were hotly debated. In his own words:
A man of flushed countenance stood up in the chamber, and, with booming voice filled with anger, shouted down anyone who dared to speak of the plight of the Negro and how good citizens of this land might discuss solutions to the question of the slave power. He forcefully declared that only the Negro himself might legitimately have a voice on this matter, and that the white man should remain silent and filled with shame; for all the ideas of the whites, even those who sympathize with the Negro, are insufficiently sensitive to the righteous anger of that race and are therefore worthless and should not be brought forth for discussion. Cheers echoed wildly through the hall, while other men in attendance, myself among them, felt their hearts sink in dismay.
Though I disagreed with the exponent of such philosophy at the time, and was saddened by his untimely and fiercely expressed opinion, I reflected upon it in due course and decided that if the Negro and his ideological allies wish for political men such as myself to exclude ourselves from seeking the freedom of his race, then I shall oblige them. From that day forward, I committed myself to other matters of importance to our great nation and resolved to let the Negro deal with his own problems by himself.
We can only wonder what might have happened if Lincoln had made a different decision. Or perhaps if the unnamed Republican debater in that conference -- a white man, by the way -- had taken a more inclusive course and encouraged participation and discussion by fellow Republicans who weren't quite as radical on the slavery question, but who generally sympathized with black people and their quest for freedom.
It's easy to wonder about such things, but the fact of the matter is that we don't know if Abraham Lincoln would have become anything other than the feeble compromiser and sell-out to the CSA that he became. Still, it's interesting to think about. I'm sure we would all like to believe that Lincoln had the potential to become a different kind of leader -- one who would fight to end the scourge of the slave culture -- and that his natural progression toward more and more liberal views on the issue of race was derailed by his encounter with a fanatic who told him to shut up. Perhaps in a parallel universe, Lincoln would have fought to preserve the Union and free the slaves. Perhaps in a parallel universe, advocates of equal rights for black people wouldn't have told the gradually evolving Lincoln that his views weren't pure abolitionist enough to be part of the conversation.
But we'll never know. Lincoln did shut up about slavery, and the Confederate States of America celebrated the 153rd anniversary of their independence this year. Because black people were left to fight for their freedom entirely by themselves, without the involvement of ideologically impure whites, they remain oppressed to this very day under the "apartness" system -- mostly a cosmetic reform of slavery -- in the global pariah state to our south. We can only wonder, what if Lincoln hadn't been urged to shut up about slavery? What if he hadn't obliged, but had continued debating it in his imperfect white ways? I guess we'll never know.