I think there are a couple of sleeper gubernatorial races this year that people are starting to wake up to. Arizona is one of them. This race is going to be the hot bed of immigration reform:
http://www.azcentral.com/...
The next Arizona governor will inherit a broken relationship with Latinos, the state's largest minority group, which has been alienated by Gov. Jan Brewer's unbending stance and tough tone on immigration.
The question is whether Brewer's successor will continue on that same path or mend the relationship with the state's burgeoning economic and political powerhouse.
After all, Brewer's position on immigration was a political winner. In 2010, she broke out of a crowded field of Republican challengers by signing Senate Bill 1070, the state's tough immigration-enforcement law, boosting her popularity and helping her win a full term.
The relationship continued to deteriorate as Brewer became one of two governors in the country to deny driver's licenses to young undocumented immigrants granted work permits through President Barack Obama's deferred-action program.
For the first time in more than a decade, the race for governor is wide-open. Seven Republicans are vying for their party's nomination: Secretary of State Ken Bennett, state Treasurer Doug Ducey, former Go Daddy executive Christine Jones, former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, former California Congressman Frank Riggs, former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas and state Sen. Al Melvin.
The leading GOP candidates have pledged to reach out to Latinos. Yet they have also staked out immigration stances similar to Brewer's, emphasizing border security before considering legal status for undocumented immigrants.
The winner of the Aug. 26 primary will face Democrat Fred DuVal, who has taken a different stance — supporting immigration reform and promising to kill the driver's-license ban in his first week in office. - AZ Central, 6/6/14
DuVal and Arizona Democrats have been sensing that change is happening in Arizona for a while now and it's a change that could benefit them this election:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
Arizona leans right. Republicans are the majority in both legislative chambers and occupy every statewide office. But six of the 10 governors before Ms. Brewer were Democrats, including Ms. Brewer’s immediate predecessor, Janet Napolitano, who won in 2002 by less than 1 percent of the vote. Now, with the state’s changing political dynamic, the Democratic Party senses an opportunity.
One recent afternoon, at the headquarters for Fred DuVal, a former chairman of the state’s Board of Regents and so far the party’s only viable candidate for governor, strategists and volunteers fired off emails and worked the phones, hoping to use the uproar over the right-to-refuse bill vetoed by Ms. Brewer to galvanize what they called the “rising electorate” — Latinos and single women, mainly, but also young parents who have moved here from other states.
“People are emotionally tired of these divisive debates,” Mr. DuVal, 59, said in an interview. “The people moving here these days, they’re different — they’re young families from California, not Midwestern retirees, and they want leadership that can lead them in a different direction, in bipartisan fashion.” - New York Times, 3/30/14
It's going to be tough for the GOP candidates to try and court Latino voters while at the same time campaign on a strict anti-immigration platform to appeal to the fringe, bigoted GOP base. I mean lets look at the top GOP candidates records when it comes to immigration, First there's Ken Bennett (R. AZ):
http://www.msnbc.com/...
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) is known for his far-right antics targeting immigrants. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R) is perhaps best known for flirting with the “birther” conspiracy theory and publicly questioning whether President Obama would be on the state ballot in 2012.
Put them together and what do you get? One misguided voting-rights lawsuit.
Kansas is teaming with Arizona on a lawsuit to save controversial laws requiring people to prove they’re citizens when they register to vote. […]
The lawsuit came a week after the American Civil Liberties Union signaled plans to challenge the Kansas citizenship requirement, which has already blocked the registration of more than 15,000 would-be voters.
All of this goes back to a recent Supreme Court ruling, in which the seven-member majority said states can’t simply add conditions to the federal voter-registration forms. Federal law doesn’t require Americans who hope to register to prove they’re citizens, so Arizona erred in making that a condition as part of a Republican anti-immigrant push. - MSNBC, 8/23/13
Then you have Doug Ducey (R. AZ):
http://www.bizjournals.com/...
State Treasurer and Republican hopeful Doug Ducey today called for investigations as to why undocumented immigrants — many of them women and children — were being transported from Texas by federal agents to bus stations in Phoenix and Tucson.
“This negligent action has left Arizona to care for these individuals, never mind that we are already dealing every day with the consequences of the Obama administration’s utter failure to control the border and enforce the law,” said Ducey in a letter today to U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz.
Gosar serves on the U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. That panel is chaired by Obama critic U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif. Ducey is the former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery and was elected treasurer in 2010. - Phoenix Business Journal, 6/2/14
By the way, Ducey's the clown who argued that the deportation numbers under President Obama are inflated. Then there's her:
http://www.bizjournals.com/...
Former GoDaddy general counsel Christine Jones is focusing on immigration and reports the Obama administration released more than 33,000 unauthorized immigrants who faced serious criminal charges.
The Center for Immigration Studies and Washington Times report this week the administration released undocumented immigrants facing charges ranging from drunk driving and sexual assault to murder and kidnapping.
Jones said President Barack Obama is pulling back on federal immigration law enforcement as he makes yet another business-backed push for immigration reforms.
“President Obama’s call to end the enforcement of immigration law goes against all constitutional decency and once again proves that this administration is motivated by short-term political interests, rather than a genuine desire to do what is best for our country. There should never be a reward for what is a criminal act and this lawlessness from the federal government cannot be stood for,” Jones said in a statement.
The Phoenix Republican has been courting support from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and has an advertisement voicing her opposition to amnesty for those illegally in the country.
“If you do come to Arizona you are breaking the law and you will have to pay for that. You’ll not be given priority. You’ll not be given amnesty,” Jones said. - Phoenix Business Journal, 5/14/14
The only GOP candidate, who happens to poll the strongest against DuVal but is behind Bennett and Jones is Mesa mayor Scott Smith (R. AZ) who doesn't sound bigoted or bat shit crazy about this issue:
http://immigrationimpact.com/...
“Mayors are looking for a fix,” said Mayor Scott Smith of Mesa Arizona, President of the U.S. Conference of Mayors. “The status quo is not acceptable. It’s as simple as that.” In a January 31 letter to Members of Congress, the United States Conference of Mayors urged expeditious action on immigration reform in 2014. As the letter stated:
“Fixing our nation’s broken immigration laws is among the most important issues of interest to America’s mayors currently before the U.S. House of Representatives. We believe strongly that maintaining the status quo will further damage the economic, political and social structure of our cities and our country. As Mayors, we have a ground-level understanding of the pressing economic and moral imperatives that necessitate changing our national immigration system, and we urge the House to expeditiously bring legislation to the floor.”
Also speaking at the Mayors’ annual winter meeting, newly appointed Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson remarked that an earned path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the U.S. is a matter of national security. It would encourage such immigrants “to come out of the shadow, to be accountable, to participate in the American experience.” Offering a path to citizenship is “a matter (of) who we are as Americans.”
The Mayors are reflecting the local view of how integral immigration is to cities that is also buoyed by data in a new report from Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA). The report outlines five ways immigrants make cities more economically competitive and is the latest in their series on the various ways immigrants contribute to the economy, entrepreneurship, labor force, housing market, and other areas in the U.S. Specifically, it highlights examples of how immigrants contribute to a dynamic labor force and spur economic growth; are more likely to start businesses and create jobs in their cities; are critical to helping cities counteract population decline, keeping economies vibrant and strong; make cities more attractive by raising housing values; and, because of generally higher levels of education, contribute to a talented workforce. - Immigration Impact, 2/7/14
As noted in the last poll done by PPP, Smith comes in third with still a big chunk of the GOP electorate still undecided:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Moving on to the Governor's race for this year, it looks pretty wide open for both the Republican primary and the general election. The leader for the GOP nomination is 'undecided' at 34%. 5 candidates have measurable amounts of support at this point- Ken Bennett at 20%, Christine Jones at 16%, Scott Smith at 12%, Andrew Thomas at 9%, and Doug Ducey at 6%. Al Melvin, John Molina, and Frank Riggs all register at 1% in the poll.
In hypothetical general election contests between Democratic candidate Fred DuVal (who has just 27% name recognition) and the Republican field, no candidate ever gets more than 40%. DuVal trails Scott Smith (39/33) and Ken Bennett (37/33) but leads the rest of the GOP hopefuls- it's 36/35 over Doug Ducey, 35/32 over John Molina, 36/32 over Frank Riggs, 37/33 over Christine Jones, 37/32 over Al Melvin, and 40/35 over Andrew Thomas. Overall the race has to be considered a toss up at this point. - PPP, 3/4/14
From the way it looks right now, GOP voters haven't been able to fight off their anti-immigration sentiments which is going to hurt them. The fact that bigots like Bennett and Jones are the lead candidates is clear evidence of this. A lot can happen between now and August 26th but one thing's for sure, immigration is a key issue in this race. And if it is, it works out well for DuVal. So lets help him get ready for November. Click here to donate and get involved with his campaign:
http://www.fred2014.com/