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U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) speaks to the media about an immigration reform on Capitol Hill in Washington June 18, 2013.  REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
A Republican primary fight in Nevada could have major consequences for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Tuesday brings us primaries in Maine, Nevada, South Carolina and Virginia (North Dakota will also hold its primary but there are no contested statewide or federal primaries there). Additionally, Arkansas will hold a runoff for races where no candidate won more than 50 percent in the May 20 primary. Below is our guide for what to watch arranged by poll closing times. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 7 PM ET Tuesday, when polls start to close.

South Carolina: Polls close at 7 PM ET. Note that for any races in which no one wins more than 50 percent, a runoff will be held June 24.

SC-Sen-A (R): Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has been a tempting tea party target for years. Some of his actions, including his votes to confirm both of President Obama's Supreme Court nominees, have earned him the ire of grassroots conservatives. However, Graham has worked hard to shore up his right flank: He wasted little time bringing up Republican red meat issues like Benghazi and stressing his conservative credentials.

Graham has also benefited from a set of weak challengers. None of them are particularly well known and none have much money to spend compared to Graham. Outside conservative groups have also largely stayed out of the contest, further helping Graham. There has been very little recent polling here, but Graham looks favored to win the nomination Tuesday without a runoff.

Head over the fold for more races to watch on Tuesday.

Virginia: Polls close at 7 PM ET.

VA-07 (R): House Majority Leader Eric Cantor faces a primary challenge in a race that has been getting a good deal of attention. Some tea party groups are hoping that college professor Dave Brat can upset the very establishment favored Cantor in a low turnout race. Cantor will be tough to beat but he isn't taking any chances. In the last seven weeks Cantor outspent Brat $993,000 to $76,000, and has aired ads hitting Brat. A Brat upset is very unlikely, but a relatively close race would make the Republican establishment nervous.

VA-08 (D): Democratic Rep. Jim Moran's retirement has left his safely blue Northern Virginia seat up for grabs. Six credible Democrats are running, and the frontrunner looks like former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer. Beyer has a clear financial advantage over his opponents and his local car dealerships give him considerable name recognition. Beyer will face former Northern Virginia Urban League head Lavern Chatman; state Sen. Adam Ebbin; Alexandria Mayor Bill Euille; Del. Patrick Hope; and radio cost and former congressional aide Mark Levine. In a race this crowded, it's possible that one of them could pull off a surprise, but this race looks like Beyer's to lose.  

Maine: Polls close at 8 PM ET.

ME-02 (D & R): Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud is running for governor and leaving his Democratic-leaning but competitive seat up for grabs. State Sen. Emily Cain will face state Senate Majority Leader Troy Jackson in the Democratic primary. Both candidates are trying to portray themselves as the true Democrat in the race. Jackson is criticizing Cain over a 2011 budget deal she made with Republican Gov. Paul LePage; Cain in turn is hitting Jackson for his 2009 vote against same sex marriage and portraying him as an opponent of abortion rights.  

Cain has outspent Jackson $182,000 to $83,000 in recent weeks and her allies EMILY's List and the League of Conservation Voters have also spent on her behalf. An unanswered poll from LCV also shows Cain with a massive 60-25 advantage in the primary. Jackson has been emphasizing populist economic issues and he does have a geographic base of support, but he looks like the clear underdog.

On the Republican side, former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin faces former state Senate President Kevin Raye, who was also the party's 2002 and 2012 nominee. Poliquin has outspent Raye $234,000 to $111,000 in recent weeks, and has attacked Raye for refusing to sign an anti-tax pledge. However, Raye may have better name recognition from his past campaigns. Either Republican will have a tough time in the general in this 53/44 Obama seat, but neither can be counted out.

Nevada: Polls close at 10 PM ET.

NV-04 (R): Freshman Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford had an unexpectedly competitive 2012 race, and Republicans are hoping to target him before he becomes entrenched. Two noteworthy Republicans are running: state Assemblyman Cresent Hardy, and Niger Innis, the spokesman for the once great but long-disgraced Congress of Racial Equality. Neither candidate has spent much in the last few weeks, and Horsford would start out as the favorite against either in this 54/44 Obama seat.

NV-LG (R): Two credible Republicans are competing to face Democratic Assemblywoman Lucy Flores in a race that may have major long-term implications. Governor Brian Sandoval and other establishment Republicans favor state Sen. Mark Hutchison, who represents a Las Vegas-area swing district. Hutchison's primary foe is former state party chair and 2010 US Senate candidate Sue Lowden. While Hutchison has raised more money, Lowden has outspent Hutchison $293,000 to $170,000 in the last three weeks of the race. Both candidates are trying to paint the other as insufficiently conservative, and the race has gotten quite negative.  

The lieutenant governor's office is not particularly powerful, but the primary and general elections are very important this year. Sandoval is expected to easily win re-election and is seen as Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's toughest potential challenger in 2016. However, Sandoval may be reluctant to run if his victory meant ceding the governorship to the Democrats. Team Red's odds of keeping the lieutenant governorship would be diminished if Lowden, who helped destroy her 2010 Senate campaign with the infamous chicken-for-checkups gaffe, won on Tuesday. Hutchison looks like the favorite in the primary but Democrats would love a surprise. In any case, Reid is expected to do whatever it takes to help Flores win in November.  

Other races:

Statewide positions: In South Carolina, four Republicans are competing in the open lieutenant governor's race, while nine Republicans and four Democrats are running for state Superintendent of Education. In Arkansas, Republican attorneys Leslie Rutledge and David Sterling are competing in the runoff for attorney general. The winner will take on Democratic state Rep. Nate Steel in what is expected to be a competitive general election. In Nevada, three Republicans are running for state controller. The winner will face Democratic state Assemblyman Andrew Martin.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 07:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (19+ / 0-)

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 07:00:17 AM PDT

  •  VA-08: I Can't Decide! (7+ / 0-)

    I actually live in VA-08 and I realize that this is probably one of the most important votes of my life, since it will be very low turnout and since whomever wins will probably be in Congress a very long time.

    I want a strong progressive to win.

    I was torn between Levine, Ebbin and Hope (who I've met a few times). But then Hope called for a referendum on a planned (and much needed) local streetcar project, which to me showed a lack of political courage.

    So now it's down to Ebbin and Levine. I think they are the only two that can beat Beyer though I'm not sure which one. Levine has had some television ads while Ebbin seems to focus on mailers. And I received a robocall last night from Levine announcing a phone-in conversation with him for tonight.

    Meanwhile Ebbin rode in Saturday's DC Gay Pride parade.

    Anyone knowledgeable with the race have any beliefs as to who can beat Beyer?

    •  You Picked The Best Two of The Bunch (7+ / 0-)

      Ebbin has a history of pulling off upset victories in his past primary for his current state senate seat.  He's deeply progressive so you know exactly what you you are getting when you cast a ballot for him.  

      Levine is a strong progressive as well, a rel progressive fighter, and he has had the dollars to run a campaign with television advertising etc., to take on Beyer.  And as congressman, he may gain more national attention due to his past appearances on numerous national cable news shows.  

      While I think the anti-Beyer progressive votes are going to be too splintered to defeat Beyer, it might be worth casting a ballot for Ebbin in hopes he can pull off another upset victory in a Democratic primary.

      Clearly, you can't go wrong with either pick - whay is your gut telling you?

      "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

      by unapologeticliberal777 on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:01:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Truthfully, I don't believe anyone will beat Beyer (6+ / 0-)

      However, I'm voting for Ebbin. Levin is an acceptable alternative, but as an Arlington resident, I'd really like to see Ebbin win it.

    •  I'm picking Beyer... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, barbwires

      The guy is a well-financed, smart, collegial, experienced guy who is exactly who you want fighting for not only the district, but federal workers. I was ok with Moran, but thought his baggage and propensity for cavalierly popping off hurt the larger cause. Beyer will be an upgrade, for sure.

      I like the others and will vote for the winner, but I think Beyer is the full package while others have put their niche interests front and center in an effort to separate themselves from the pack. I don't get the same sense that they'll be the "big" presence that is needed in the district.

  •  NV-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    4Freedom
    Freshman Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford had an unexpectedly competitive 2012 race
    Do you mean that it was unexpected for him to win? Because I'm pretty sure every poll had him losing.

    In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

    by James Allen on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:01:55 AM PDT

    •  He was originally seen as pretty safe to win it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, LordMike, 4Freedom

      Then the bad polls started coming in. A lot of people saw it as a tossup. He did win pretty decisively in the end, but it was after a competitive campaign.

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:07:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't see it as a tossup (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MrLiberal, 4Freedom

        the polls were clearly bad. We don't know what the state of the race was before the actual election because of that.

        In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

        by James Allen on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:12:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It did get treated as competitive (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MrLiberal, 4Freedom

          When the district's boundary was finalized, it was initially seen as a Democratic pickup.  Bu November most publications had it as Lean Democratic or tossup. Personally, I rated it as "tossup/ tilt Democratic". Obviously Horsford was underestimated but it's clear that people were taking NV-04 seriously.

          So basically you can accurately say that the race was both more competitive than expected but less competitive than expected.

          Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:24:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Ralston summed up CW right before EDay (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            4Freedom
            CD4: Danny Tarkanian, in his fourth bid for office, is a better candidate than in his previous three. Steven Horsford, who has suffered from not being well known and some career missteps, has made a 13-point district into a close race. Democrats essentially went into panic mode a few weeks back when they saw the contest slipping away to Tark. Horsford was bleeding from the base, which had been introduced to him quite negatively, mostly thanks to the National Republican Congressional Committee. I think the Democratic machine has righted the ship in the nick of time. Horsford, 49 percent; Tarkanian, 47 percent; others, 4 percent.
            https://www.ralstonreports.com/...

            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

            by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 08:26:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  SC-Superintendent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    4Freedom

    Watch out on the GOP side, a GOP star could emerge from the field.  Meka Child's, the deputy superintendent....

  •  SO excited we can talk about Chicken Lady again (6+ / 0-)
  •  ME-02 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, betelgeux, 4Freedom

    I would be mildly surprised if Cain or Raye lost, but neither seems out of the question. I realize there was debate over the weekend over the ideological differences between Cain and Jackson, but I will say this: given that we have marriage equality, that Maine is, imo, the most isolated contiguous state from the social regressiveness of the Deep South, that Maine is the oldest state and that we have a very depressing economic outlook, Jackson is a far superior candidate to represent the interests of northern Maine. I wish that I could vote for him, but I live too far south (nor is mine the college town that was purposefully removed from the upstate district).

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

    by GoUBears on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 10:39:52 AM PDT

  •  SC low turnout might endanger Graham (0+ / 0-)

    It seems that there is very little interest in the races this year.  There aren't many races and what few there are have produced little interest or spending.  Even Graham seems to have spent  relatively little until this last month.  

    I frankly think the Graham camp has very little motivation.  Most feel he has it in the bag, so why bother.  His opponents do not have a large following, but the following they do have would definitely show up.  

    If turnout is really low, I think he could be pushed into a runoff.   If question would then be, do the Tea PACs then jump in to finish him off.  

    •  Weak opponents with little time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PSUCentrePA

      It'd be similar to the Sanford runoff.  No way Graham loses a runoff because none of his opponents are good enough.  They make Chris McDaniel look solid.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Jun 09, 2014 at 03:26:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Anyone that didn't vote for Graham the first time. (0+ / 0-)

        Would not vote for him in a runoff.  Of course, those that didn't vote (particularly Democrats and Independents) could vote in the runoff if they blew off the first vote.  Although, many people would mistakenly think they would not be eligible.

        Graham would win the runoff if the big money stayed on the sideline, but it would not be sure bet if they did go big against Graham.   That is why I wanted McDaniel to win outright the first time.  That would have let the Tea party groups move on to the Graham race with MS already in the bag and giving them confidence.  

        I know it doesn't mean anything, but turnout at my precinct was well below average.  Only 3 GOP votes when there would usually be somewhere in the teens by that time.  

    •  Graham wins (0+ / 0-)

      His multiple opponents are virtually unknown and almost completely irrelevant.

  •  democrats in these states can improve their chance (0+ / 0-)

    s by monitoring rw radio. the local/state blowhards will be enlisted and coordinated with the state GOP and the stink tanks to play their part in swiftboating democrats as well as choosing the primary winner. there may be some interblowhard competition in the primaries with the 'establishment' vs the teabagger but on the main state stations i doubt there will be much favoritism before management lays down the law before the primaries. then it will be all out republican attacks on the democrat, to go with what's already happening.

    in this diary http://www.dailykos.com/...
     i describe how recording all the main state blowhards can be recorded and then transcribed and then searched for key words- like the name of the dem candidate or particular issues.

    this diary http://www.dailykos.com/... showed how walker used rw radio in his primary in 2010 - similar is happening all over the country.

    all major state dem offices should be using a computer or two for keeping an eye on state talk radio. the interviews with republican candidates and their surrogates and the think tank guests that come on those shows need to be noted and responded to.

    in the past dems always get caught by surprise and miss many opportunities.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Tue Jun 10, 2014 at 08:40:50 AM PDT

  •  Eric Cantor primaried out in VA-07 (0+ / 0-)

    by Tea Party candidate Steve Brat.

    Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

    by Mokurai on Tue Jun 10, 2014 at 05:31:10 PM PDT

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