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Remember, the Bush regime took out Saddam Hussein, who was a Sunni. The religious leadership in the Middle East region was balanced at the state level for decades, by taking out Saddam Hussein that balance was upset.

Iran is considered a Shia state, they funded Hezbollah, and Hezbollah used that money to attack Israel. So after the Bush regime toppled Saddam Hussein, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia warmed up to Israel, the common enemy? Well Shia Iran of course.

Its very likely that discussions in the KSA about what to do to redress this issue of balance in the Middle East region were under way before Saddam Hussein was caught. the Seeds of what we're seeing happen in Iraq in 2014 were likely sown 10 years ago.

The decision the KSA faced was to let Iran influence the region in ways the KSA may not have a lot of influence in, or be a player and counter the Iran/Shia influence in a more direct fashion.

The KSA was never going to let a Shite regime in Iraq stand.

ISTANBUL — The long-predicted dissolution of a centrally controlled Iraq ruled from Baghdad appeared closer to reality on Thursday as radical Islamist fighters advanced through the country with little interference from what remained of Iraq’s disintegrating security forces.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

Juan Cole wrote in 2006

Break-Up of Iraq Threatens Mideast Stability

The NYT reported in December of 2011:

The escalating political crisis underscores the divisions among Iraq’s three main factions — Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds — that were largely papered over while the American military maintained a presence here.
ForeignPolicy.com
Why the ISIS invasion of Iraq is really a war between Shiites and Sunnis for control of the Middle East.

6:57 PM PT: Let me be clearer, this was going to happen, one way or the other, the region would find balance.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (20+ / 0-)

    .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 06:34:49 PM PDT

  •  Thanks Roger. We will be paying a heavy price for (10+ / 0-)

    the stupidity of the Bush-Cheney administration for decades to come.

    Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

    by HoundDog on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 06:41:45 PM PDT

    •  How soon will we see 3 states? (6+ / 0-)

      Doesn't it seem thats the path they are on?

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 06:52:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually I think this enhances (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, cosette, RhodeIslandAspie

        Joe Biden's chances in 2016, as I believe he was advocating some kind of provincial federalism of this sort during the 2004 campaign.

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:07:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  President at age 74... hmm. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:10:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  He did. His analysis then was the the Kurds of (6+ / 0-)

          the North, the Shias of the East, and the Sunnis of the West were such separate cultural and ethnic groups only totalitarian repression was strong enough to keep them together.

          Some felts that if that were true then we should support that transition in a way that maximized our advantage, however, Turkey was so strongly opposed to that possibility there was even a threat of war, because, the actual Kurdish demographic footprint extends into Turkey which already has a problem with Kurdish separatists.

          There was also the problem of ethnic cleansing as the different groups fight block by block to establish their ultimate borders.  

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:25:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, some good background (3+ / 0-)
            only totalitarian repression was strong enough to keep them together.
            And that worked for decades. I think the ME region benefited from that balance.

            .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

            by Roger Fox on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:36:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Prince Rupert's Drops (0+ / 0-)

              Glass globules that look sturdy and strong, and resist damage, until you break the tail off - then they fly to powder in an instant. (Favorite magician's trick.)

              We saw EXACTLY the same thing happen to "Yugoslavia" once Tito was gone.

              If it's
              Not your body,
              Then it's
              Not your choice
              And it's
              None of your damn business!

              by TheOtherMaven on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 10:29:01 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  The soft partition option. (4+ / 0-)

          He was ridiculed by the Republicans, but it looks like he may have been right as this just might be the only post Saddam viable option.

          Just another underemployed IT professional computer geek.

          by RhodeIslandAspie on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 08:10:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that was why I voted for Kucinich/Biden. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RhodeIslandAspie, Roger Fox

            Kucinich had already had an early dress rehearsal standing down Municipal Light and the Banksters, so he was the right one to stare down Wall st. and fix middle America instead of replenishing the shiny 1% veneer.

            Then since I knew I wasn't really going to get an anti-war candidate anyway, I voted for Biden because I heard him give an extremely thoughtful analysis of that on a local radio call in show during the campaign.

            We are all pupils in the eyes of God.

            by nuclear winter solstice on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 10:20:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  It effectively is 3 states already (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Roger Fox

        The Kurds have been essentially an independent state for many years now.  Now ISIS has more or less taken control of the Sunni parts of Iraq and the Baghdad government is confined to controlling just the Shia dominant parts of the country.  

        Of course it's looking like ISIS is going to press it's luck and try to push into the Shia areas, which probably won't go well for them considering Iran isn't going to stand by and allow the Shia parts of Iraq to be overrun.

        •  "Just" the Shia dominant parts? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roger Fox

          Isn't that like 3/4 of the population, more or less? Well, not quite, having just looked it up. But:

          Religion, 99% Islamic
          Of those: Shia c. 65%, 35% Sunni, or about 2 to 1
          But the Kurds are Sunni, and 17% of the population

          So Arab Sunni are roughly the same as the Kurds, or about 1/6 of the population. 80% of the non-Kurds are Shia Arabs, with only 20% of the Arabs being Sunni. Saddam's was very much a dictatorship of one group over another, not entirely unlike South Africa in terms of numbers.

          So I don't quite understand why you refer to "just the Shia dominant parts of the country," seeming to imply that Iraq is mainly Sunni. Not so.

          Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

          by Land of Enchantment on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 07:09:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because of geography (0+ / 0-)

            While Shia may make up 65% of the Iraqi population they are only the heavy majority in roughly 1/4th of less of the territory.  They are heavily concentrated southeast of the country in the major cities.  

            This is why ISIS was able to take over close to half of Iraq in barely one week.  Because while Sunni Arabs are only 20% of Iraqis they are more spread out and make up a majority in the vast rural areas of western Iraq.

            http://www.juancole.com/...

            •  Half the territory (0+ / 0-)

              But that's sparsely populated (desert), kind of like taking over NE Nevada or western Kansas or some such. It's not country that can support many people or much of an economy. Republicans try to claim they represent "most" of America, based on the land area of the counties they win in. Same deal, same problem.

              Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

              by Land of Enchantment on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 04:33:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Bad diary. You're confusing Hamas with (3+ / 0-)

    Hezbollah.  Diary should be deleted and perhaps rewritten.

    Hamas is sunni.

    This is an incredibly boneheaded diary.

    •  Thank you for the correction (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Timaeus, waterstreet2013, ChadmanFL

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:06:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And Hizb Allah is the child of Ronald Reagan. (4+ / 0-)

        After the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Reagan sent U.S. troops in as United Nations Peacekeepers. Then when Palestinian fighters left on boats to Algeria, Reagan pulled out the protectors of the Palestinian camps, Sabra and Shatila.

        "Christian" Felangists then went in that September, couple weeks after Reagan's retreat, and slaughtered as many as 3,500 civilians. Reminded Arabs of Jerusalem 1099.

        Iran organized retaliation. Called "Just Retaliation" in Islamic law. Started with bombing the U.S. embassy in April. Then the Marine BLT Barracks and the French in October. And three weeks later the comm center in Tyre.

        All through this, Reagan had U.S. Navy ships fire their guns into residential areas uphill from Beirut. Easily 1,500 dead.

        Reagan finally turned tail out of Lebanon in 1984.

        Iran was able to use its prestige -- killing more than 400 and running Reagan out of town -- to consolidate the Shi'ia and build up Hizb Allah along with moving 10,000 IRG troops in there permanently. They're still there, helping Assad.

        No Reagan, no Hizb Allah. Iran had never had a substantial presence in Lebanon. But they knew how to make thermobaric bombs -- a shock wave to rival small nukes.

        Of course Reagan was a damn fool as Commander in Chief.

        And in September of 1983, the month before the Marine barracks got flattened, the Russkies shot down KAL-007. Killed Larry McDonald of John Birch Society and Georgia congressional delegation fame. McDonald had been president of the JBS nut cake.

        What happened ??? Nothing. Not a sanction. Not a damn thing.

        We had an actor in the White House.

        "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

        by waterstreet2013 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 08:46:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  wow. that was a really great concise run-down of (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roger Fox, waterstreet2013, Timaeus

          those days. and just to continue a bit, a couple months later, in December of 1983 was when Reagan sent Rumsfeld as his envoy to Saddam Hussein.

          We are all pupils in the eyes of God.

          by nuclear winter solstice on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 10:27:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And the post-9/11 NeoCon/KSA wet dream (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nuclear winter solstice, Timaeus

            shock-and-awe murders led to the failed war 2002-2010, the Maliki blunders, and now have opened the door for IRG to plant troops in Baghdad.

            (Bush let the Shi'ia write their own constitution. He was as bad as Reagan.)

            They're saying 500 troops from IRG, but that's more likely 10,000 to 25,000. Similar to what is happening with IRG in Lebanon.

            The dumb-ass KSA bribesters get what they deserve. They backed Likud's advisors, set out to kill Muslims to the tune of 1,961,000 total extra deaths in Iraq, and what they're getting is a Shi'ia powerhouse sharing a border with them and none of the woman-hating/Salafi/utterly lazy/dependence on foreigners.

            KSA's fxcked ??? They did it to themselves.

            "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

            by waterstreet2013 on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 05:45:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  When I first read of this, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Roger Fox

    my immediate thought was that Saudi Arabia was funding and supporting ISIS, that ISIS is as much a proxy for SA as Hezbollah is for Iran.  Perhaps there was some diplomatic agreement between the USA and SA to keep 'hands off' unless certain events made interference necessary, from SA's point of view, or they were just waiting for the right time.  

    But the timing of this, right before the USA midterm elections (assuming this will make headlines for months), makes me wonder if Bandar Bush's clan still has some influence with both SA and the GOP.  I know, everything in the world doesn't revolve around US politics, except SA and the USA really are joined at the hip.  Well, perhaps SA and the GOP.

    190 milliseconds....

    by Kingsmeg on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:36:54 PM PDT

  •  I often think our real enemy has been (7+ / 0-)

    KSA.  Just the backward, medieval nature of their society and their treatment of women indicates this.  The Kingdom  should have no authority to dictate public policy in its own country much less the world.

    "You cannot win improv." Stephen Colbert (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6tiaooiIo0 at 16:24).

    by Publius2008 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 07:55:53 PM PDT

    •  The Kingdom is going to experience... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Roger Fox

      ...it's own version of "Arab Spring" and it's going to take all the "experts" by surprise. And the facade of their "proven reserves" will be exposed for all to see. No amount of military action is going to "fix" that, but for some NeoCon-endorsed reason that will be the response.

      Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 12:44:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Iraq should split into sensible, governable states (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Roger Fox

    it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

    by Addison on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 08:05:03 PM PDT

  •  The Redirection (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Claudius Bombarnac

    "Fragmented and confused, we have no plan to combat any of this, but are looking to be saved by the very architects of our ruination."

    by BigAlinWashSt on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 08:07:01 PM PDT

  •  You should probably fix the misspelling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Unduna, Roger Fox

    in the title: there's a bit of a difference between Shiite and Shite!

  •  Well, KSA bought the Bushes. (3+ / 0-)

    That got our invasion and destruction of KSA's biggest rival among the Sunni states.

    Now that went bad. Sunni rival Iraq has slowly been moving to become an outright Shi'ia enemy with the Maliki government.

    But sending in ISIS is only going to force Iran's hand with IRG moving in. They'll say it's 500 troops. Anything under 5,000 would be useless.

    10,000 or 25,000 wouldn't surprise. And once they're in, they stay.

    "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

    by waterstreet2013 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 at 08:53:39 PM PDT

  •  Divide the lines as they were before the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nuclear winter solstice

    Colonial powers divided it up after the Ottoman Empire fell.

  •  Vietnam vs. Iraq comparisons (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Roger Fox

    ... were always fatally flawed, though both got described as "civil wars." Vietnam was always organically, a "natural" nation, divided into north & south by external powers. Iraq more or less the opposite with various ethnicities & nationalities melded together into a single "state." Recent developments were more or less predictable from the beginning, and many did in fact predict them.

    Though I'm not so sure why you want to characterize this as about Saudi Arabia, or as you put in your title "KSA." FYI: KSA is an abbreviation that was heretofore unknown to me. I briefly tried to figure out if it was some major war contractor under a new name or some Al Qaeda leader's initials or something. KSM=Khalid Shiek Mohammed, KBR=Kellogg Brown Root, or some such.

    Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

    by Land of Enchantment on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 06:59:55 AM PDT

    •  Kingdon of Saudi Arabia=KSA (0+ / 0-)

      The fighting isnt so much about KSA, but that KSA wasnt going to let Iranian backed proxy's have the run of Iraq without being a player in that theater.

      IMHO.

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sun Jun 15, 2014 at 10:53:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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