Have some good news to report today:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Democrats have a slim advantage in their quest to hold onto two Senate seats in Michigan and Colorado, an NBC/Marist poll released Tuesday finds.
“The early edge goes to the Democrats,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told NBC. “But these are not states they can put into their win column just yet.”
In the race to succeed retiring Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) leads GOP candidate and former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land by 6 percentage points, 43 percent to 37 percent. In Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall (D) leads Rep. Cory Gardner (R) by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie Dann write that Michigan and Colorado are among the blue states at play in the November elections. While Republicans likely don't need either state to take over the Senate, winning them could mean a wave election for the GOP. - Huffington Post, 7/15/14
They also polled both Governor races with mixed results:
http://www.msnbc.com/...
In the state’s race for governor, sitting Gov. John Hickenlooper holds a six-point edge over Republican opponent Bob Beauprez, 49% to 43%, with 7% undecided.
And in the Wolverine State’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Snyder holds on to a two-point over Democratic nominee Mark Schauer, 46% to 44%, although that’s within the survey’s margin of error.
“The Republican governor is holding his own so far,” Miringoff adds.
Among Latinos – who make up 16% of registered voters in the Colorado poll – Udall has a 31-point lead over Gardner, 58% to 27%.
And also in Colorado, both Udall (by 50% to 34%) and Hickenlooper (by 52% to 35% have the advantage with independent voters.
By contrast, in Michigan, Gov. Snyder holds a 14-point edge among independents – which explains his narrow lead in this Democratic-leaning state.
President Obama also is unpopular in these two states he carried in the 2008 and 2012 presidential races: In both, just 40% of registered voters approve of his job.
However, just 19% of Michigan voters and 21% of Colorado voters approve of the job congressional Republicans are doing.
Registered voters in both states are divided about a move to reduce greenhouse gases, even if it means higher utility bills for consumers. Forty-five percent of Michigan voters said they approve of such a proposal, versus 47% who said they disapprove. Coloradoans were slightly more in favor of the proposal to reduce global warming; half of voters said they approve of the move, compared with 40% who said they disapprove.
The poll showed a wider divide between the two states on the issue of immigration. In Colorado, where Latinos made up 16% of registered voters, 56% said they favor giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship, while 40% oppose that measure. But in Michigan, where Latinos only make up 3% of registered voters, only 47% back offering the opportunity for citizenship, while 46% do not.
In Colorado, where Hickenlooper has taken heat for appearing to change his opinion on a controversial gun control measure, voters are deadlocked on the issue of rules involving the sale of firearms.
Among registered voters, 40% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who believes the sale of firearms should be less strict, while 52% say the opposite.
“In Colorado, on the gun control issue, there was a sentiment not to do much of anything. People don’t want to support someone who wants to limit [the laws], they don’t want someone who wants to weaken the restrictions,” said pollster Lee Miringoff. “It’s very polarized.”
Opposition to the loosening of gun regulations is largely fueled by female voters, who say they are less likely to support a pro-gun rights candidate by 20 percentage points, while men are about equally divided on the question. - MSNBC, 7/15/14
Now there is some news in the polls to take into account:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
In Colorado, 46 percent of voters say they "strongly" believe that passing Obamacare was a bad idea. And in blue-leaning Michigan, 44 percent agree.
In both states, just slightly more than half as many registered voters say they strongly believe passing Obamacare was a good idea. In other words, many more voters are motivated by their distaste for Obamacare than by how much they like it. And the number who strongly dislike it is approaching half of all registered voters -- and probably even closer to half among likely voters, which NBC/Marist didn't break out.
To the extent that close to half of voters in either of these states really dislike Obamacare, it's bad news bears for Democrats.
What's most interesting about those numbers, though, is that they are actually worse for Obamacare and Democrats than we've seen from other polling.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has asked for years whether people thought Obamacare was a good or bad idea. Never before have as many as 44 or 46 percent of all Americans said they strongly believe Obamacare was a bad idea. It's generally around 40 percent nationwide.
The fact that this number is higher in these two battleground states (one of them blue-leaning) suggests the GOP's Obamacare advertising blitz could be having some effect.
At the same time, even if those ads are working, they aren't yet putting Republicans in front. Udall's lead is bigger than his lead in an April Quinnipiac University poll, which he led by just 2 percentage points over Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), and Peters's lead is one of the biggest he has shown. (Some early polls showed Republican Terri Lynn Land actually leading).
Close to half of voters might really dislike Obamcare, but so far they aren't all translating that into voting for Republicans. - Washington Post, 7/15/14
And there's one key voting block that's giving Udall and Peters their leads:
http://www.nbcnews.com/...
When it comes to the Republican Party’s path to a Senate majority, so much of the focus has been on the red states. But the difference between the GOP pursuing a lasting majority and one that is temporary -- or even elusive -- is how it performs in purple and blue states like Colorado and Michigan. And our brand-new NBC/Marist polls of Colorado and Michigan show Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) leading Cory Gardner (R) by seven points among registered voters, 48%-41%, in Colorado’s key Senate race. They find Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) ahead of GOP challenger Bob Beauprez by six points, 49%-43%. They have Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI) up over Republican Terri Lynn Land by six, 43%-37%, in Michigan’s Senate contest. And they show Gov. Rick Snyder (R) leading Democratic challenger Mark Schauer by two points, 46%-44%. So why are Udall, Peters, and Snyder all ahead in their contests? Here’s an explanation: mind the gaps -- the gender gap, the Latino gap, and the independent gap. In Colorado, Udall is up by 12 points among female voters (50%-38%), as Democratic groups like Senate Majority PAC are up with TV ads (like this one) on abortion and contraception. Indeed, 70% of Colorado voters in the NBC/Marist poll said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who supports restrictions on the use of contraception. And in Michigan, Peters is ahead by 13 points with women (46%-33%).
Can It Be Enough To Save The Democratic Majority?
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: The Democratic path to survival in this very difficult midterm season for the party is through women. And that’s especially true after the Hobby Lobby decision. There’s no doubt Democrats are going to win women voters in the fall; the questions are by how much and whether it will be large enough to save the party’s Senate majority. - NBC News, 7/15/14
Democrats have been slamming Land in attack ads over this:
http://atr.rollcall.com/...=
The Democrat-aligned super PAC’s spot, backed by a nearly $650,000 buy and running for two weeks, features three state residents criticizing former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land on issues including tax breaks for the wealthy and women’s health, while labeling Land a “career politician.”
As the party fights to keep control of the Senate, Democrats are counting on Rep. Gary Peters to hold the seat being vacated by Sen. Carl Levin. Peters has held small leads in the public polls released over the last few months, but Land has proven an able fundraiser.
Peters announced Wednesday raising nearly $2 million in the second quarter, a personal best. A few hours later, Land touted bringing in more than $2.1 million and contributing an additional $1.2 million out of pocket. - Roll Call, 7/12/14
And Gardner is getting hit on this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
The Service Employees International Union launched a series of Spanish-language ads on Tuesday going after House Republicans for their failure on immigration reform, specifically targeting four lawmakers who had previously expressed openness to working on the issue.
The television ads will air for two weeks in the districts of Reps. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.) and Cory Gardner (R-Colo.). All four men were initially considered potential supporters of immigration reform -- Valadao even joined with Democrats in supporting a comprehensive bill -- but in the end, those efforts went nowhere.
SEIU Executive Vice President Rocio Saenz said Republicans are to blame for blocking immigration reform, and the four members targeted in the ad must be held accountable as part of their party.
"The excuses, the blatant anti-immigrant rhetoric and their unwillingness to vote for immigration reform have made it abundantly clear to us all that Republicans are not interested in creating inroads or addressing the concerns of the Latino and immigrant community," Saenz said in a statement. "Republicans cannot hide behind irrational pretexts or lawsuits -- we're calling them out on the most important issue for the fastest-growing electorate in our country."
"Congressmen Coffman, Gardner, Valadao and Heck are all part of a Republican Party that must face a large constituency of Latino voters and be held accountable to their party's consistent catering to anti-immigrant extremists," she continued. - Huffington Post, 7/15/14
All in all, very encouraging news. But we can't afford to take anything for granted. Udall, Hickenlopper and Peters are all looking good and Schauer is proving to be competitive. So lets fuel their campaigns so they're ready to win in November:
http://markudall.com/
http://www.petersformichigan.com/...
http://www.hickenlooperforcolorado.com/
http://markschauer.com/