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So yesterday NBC/Marsist's poll showed Governor John Hickelooper with a good leader over former Rep. Bob "47%" Beauprez (R. CO).  Well today's Quinnipac poll paints a different picture:

http://denver.cbslocal.com/...

The race for governor in Colorado is in a statistical tie, with Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper in a dead heat with Republican challenger Bob Beauprez.

Four months before the election, a poll released by Quinnipiac University showed Hickenlooper trailing Beauprez among registered voters 43 to 44 percent, which is within the margin of error. It is the first Quinnipiac poll since Republicans picked Beauprez as the gubernatorial nominee last month.

In 2006, Beauprez lost the governor’s race by a wide margin to Democrat Bill Ritter. Beauprez served two terms in the U.S. House, representing Denver’s western suburbs.

The poll indicated Hickenlooper may face his toughest contest yet. The former geologist was easily elected Denver mayor twice, and he cruised to the governor’s office four years ago against a fractured GOP. Dan Maes, the Republican nominee in 2010, was a political newcomer and tea party favorite who only got 11 percent of the vote in the race. Meanwhile, former Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, best known for his tough stance against illegal immigration, also got into the race that year, but as a third-party candidate because he said Maes couldn’t win. - CBS Denver, 7/16/14

Here's a little more info:

http://kdvr.com/...

But the bigger concern for Hickenlooper is his job approval rating, which plunged since the last Quinnipiac poll in April. Voters give the governor a 48 percent approval with 46 percent disapproving. But in April, Hickenlooper’s job approval was at 51 percent, and that poll had him beating Beauprez 48 percent to 39 percent.

The drop may have to do with Hickenlooper’s June 13 comments to a group of Colorado sheriffs, in which he seemed to apologize for signing the ban on high-capacity gun magazines and the legislative process in 2013 when the bill was passed while also denying speaking with New York City Mayor Bloomberg, despite phone records showing he had.

Hickenlooper later explained to FOX31 that he would sign the magazine ban again and that he’d simply meant that Bloomberg wasn’t a factor in his decision, but the comments generated a week of negative media coverage, reawakening last year’s contentious battle over gun laws that the governor’s office had worked hard to put in the rear view mirror.

A poll Tuesday by NBC News/Marist College had Hickenlooper leading Beauprez 49 percent to 43 percent.

The Quinnipiac poll shows 64 percent of voters say the economy in the state is “excellent” or good,” while 49 percent said it’s getting better. Twelve percent said it’s getting worse.

“Coloradans seem generally optimistic about the future and confidant in the state’s economy, but that is certainly not enough to open the way for a smooth ride to reelection for Gov. John Hickenlooper,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. “Is former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez enjoying a bounce after his Republican primary win or is he a real challenge to the Democratic incumbent?”

Twenty percent of voters said the economy/jobs was the most important issue in deciding who they will cast their ballot for, with 9 percent saying gun issues and 6 percent saying education or education funding.

Women favored Hickenlooper 48 percent to 40 percent, men favored Beauprez 48 percent to 37 percent, and independents were split, with 41 percent favoring Beauprez and 40 percent for the governor.

Like the NBC/Marist poll Tuesday, Quinnipiac’s survey polled registered Colorado voters, not likely voters. - KDVR, 7/16/14

Now here's the numbers when it comes to Beauprez:

http://www.denverpost.com/...

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez makes a point during his presentation to delegates at the District II Republican caucus held at Angevine Middle School in Lafayette, Colo., on Tuesday, March 4, 2014. Republicans and Democrats held caucuses in every Colorado county on Tuesday night to select delegates to go to state assemblies to select the eventual candidates for the fall election. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Asked their opinion of Beauprez, 31 percent had a favorable opinion, 25 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 43 percent said they hadn't heard enough. Beauprez also ran for governor in 2006, losing to Democrat Bill Ritter by 17 percentage points.

Almost 70 percent of Coloradans said they were unaware of a speech Beauprez gave in 2010, which recently was resurrected. Beauprez at the time said " 47 percent of all Americans pay no federal income tax."

"I submit to you that there is a political strategy to get slightly over half and have a permanent ruling majority by keeping over half of the population dependent on the largesse of government that somebody else is paying for," Beauprez said in the speech.

Among those who had heard about the remarks, 52 percent agreed and 40 percent disagreed, Quinnipiac found.

Lack of effort is the main reason a person is poor, 44 percent of voters said, while 41 percent cited circumstances beyond a person's control. Poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return, 52 percent of voters said, while 37 percent say poor people have it hard because government benefits don't go far enough to help them live decently, Quinnipiac found. - Denver Post, 7/16/14

Quinnipac's polling in Colorado has been all over the place and I don't think we'll really get a great idea about what type of shape Hickenlooper is in until PPP releases their poll.  But we can't take an extremist like Beauprez fro granted.  Click here to donate and get involved with Hickenlooper's campaign:
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper at a perss event opening Invesco Field for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.
http://www.hickenlooperforcolorado.com/

Originally posted to pdc on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 04:29 PM PDT.

Also republished by Colorado COmmunity and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 04:29:50 PM PDT

  •  Pretty let down w/ Hick (6+ / 0-)

    He has zero presence down here in Durango. Whereas I see Udall's staff every time I go to volunteer at Dem HQ & Bennett has regular staff in Durango, Hick has no staff at HQ. In fact, I just verified--Hick has NO staff in CO-3 at all. Hard to win without a campaign staff.

    Also, I met Hick at a fundraiser for him about 3 weeks ago. As I was shaking his hand, I said "Hi Governor, a pleasure to meet you! I'm working hard for all Democratic candidates down here--and for you too, as best I can. I'd like to ask for your help in rural areas, sir. We're working against a red tide here, and we're doing our best to get out the vote for you. Can you get us some resources?"

    His reply: "Isn't that all done by phone now?" And he moved on.

    If the alternative(Beauprez) wasn't so bad, I doubt he'd even get my vote at this point. I mean--you come here to the abandoned corner of the State to scoop up campaign donations & then dis us while questioning our work? Douche.

    The better I know people, the more I like my dog.

    by Thinking Fella on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 04:49:10 PM PDT

    •  Good to hear you are getting involved (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Thinking Fella, Cadillac64

      every vote counts in a statewide election. Thank You.

      “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

      by ban nock on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 06:43:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I feel the same as you. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Thinking Fella, Cadillac64, unfangus

      I saw Hickenlooper when he was mayor giving a community talk. You handed in your questions on paper and his aide picked out the ones for him to answer. He took no questions. It was very unsatisfying.
      His hypocrisy with legal cannabis in Colorado has also been very disappointing. As a man who made his fortune manufacturing and distributing the most dangerous drug in America, it is disgusting to hear him tell other Governors to "hold off" on legalization (like he had the choice) until the "unintended consequences" were known. As if somehow the 90,000/annum deaths related to alcohol and 6,000 adolescent deaths was not enough to deter him when he started manufacturing beer and running bars. Or the thousands of arrests / year in Colorado were not an unintended side effect of illegal status.
      He also refused to use the word "success" regarding legalization with Katie Couric in Aspen a few weeks ago,   basically on principle. Rather he said it was not a "disaster."
      He just doesn't seem to have personal courage.
      But you're right, Beauprez is a flaming asshole and I don't want to see "personhood" and all the other stuff you see in Wisconsin and Florida happening in Colorado.

      "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

      by shmuelman on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 07:21:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Okay, so which poll is correct? (4+ / 0-)

    That's a pretty big difference- to have him winning by 6 vs. losing by 1.

    By the way, a 48% approval rating these days isn't so bad, is it?   Since economy is doing pretty well there, I think CO is definitely a GOTV situation. Nothing more Hickenlooper can really do. The gun sides are all pretty entrenched, so even if he were to flip-flop on that one to some extent I'm not sure it would help him too much.

    As for Thinking Fella's disappointment, not sure if Hickenlooper just feels it's a lost cause there or what. Does seem odd he wouldn't work every county just to eek out every last vote.  Would be interested to hear follow-up from his office as to why they don't think it's important.

    •  Hicks a provincial, he knows Denver, not the state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cadillac64

      just not used to statewide type thinking. He's a restaurateur not a politician. He's what we have though and we have to make the best of it. He's done an ok job, pretty good actually.

      The gun stuff will go away if it's not in the news. People lose interest. People are entrenched in their interest, but it it's not in the news they might not be so interested they return their mail in ballots.

      “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

      by ban nock on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 07:01:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any approval rating under 50% is not good. (0+ / 0-)
      •  I guess I was thinking it's all relative (0+ / 0-)

        So many politicians seem to have approval ratings under 50% these days that it almost is like 40% is the new 50%.

        I saw one poll just in the last few weeks that Mario Cuomo has a 48% approval rating as well, although unlike Hickenlooper, that was actually up 6 points from March.  And yet, Cuomo is clobbering all his competition Democratic or Republican in the Governor's race.  

        Maybe that one poll I saw for him was an outlier and his approval is much higher than that, but it does show you that if you're in a solid left or solid right state, you can have less than desirable approval ratings and still do okay electorally.  Sam Brownback from Kansas is an example on the right. I've seen his approval rating as low as 37%, but the RCP polling average only has his Democratic opponent leading by .3%.

  •  From my GOTV , from the cheap seats, two questi... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Thinking Fella, unfangus

    From my GOTV , from the cheap seats, two questions/concerns keep coming up in conversations regarding the GOV.

    First, his continued dismissal that marijuana legislation is an important part of Colorado's economic upswing.

    That ties into the bigger concern of his only showing passion for COGA & out-of-state corporate donors. He's suing the voters of cities that have placed limits on fracking. He wanted to call back the legislators to cut off any future voting initiatives regarding the oil & gas industry. He privatized another major roadway in the Denver metro area.

    Hickenlooper is not a fun candidate to try to sell. Voters are not feeling the "we're all in this together & want the best for our state & people" love. It's all uphill with him.

  •  In more bad news for Hick today,,,, (4+ / 0-)

    He gave up on the special session to pass the fracking energy development compromise. Which means it will be on the ballot with Jarred Pollis throwing tons of money from one side and the American Petroleum folks from the other.

    It's complicated but both Hickenlooper and Udall were very interested in seeing the compromise bill passed via special session. This could generate negatives with Colorado greens, (both Hick and Udall were against extreme fracking restrictions) and it could attract more Republican money. Bad news for both of those guys coming from both sides.

    “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

    by ban nock on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 06:49:19 PM PDT

    •  You always provide some great insights when it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cadillac64, ban nock

      comes to CO politics.  Thank you.  We should be seeing PPP's poll soon.  NBC/Marsist says one thing, Quinnipac says another.  Both polling firms I have mixed feeling about so PPP will be able to clear some things up.  Udall's doing an excellent job painting Gardner as an extremist so I am confident, despite this news, that he can beat Gardner.  Hickenlooper, I won't really know what his chances are until PPP puts out their numbers but Beauprez is an extremist as well.  It's all about how you define your opponent.

      Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

      by poopdogcomedy on Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 07:18:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Both Republican opponents are very extreme (0+ / 0-)

        I now live in Gardner's and used to live in Polis and Beauprez' districts. Polis is a nice guy but not a team player. Both of these elections are very important to keeping CO and the US Senate in Democratic hands.

        “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

        by ban nock on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:50:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Those numbers on the poors (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    unfangus

    Truly suck, electorally and morally.

    Is this country really half full of people who think they have all sorts of personal awesomeness, while people with less money -- or none -- are just taking a sweet free ride?

    I'm afraid to admit the answer to myself.

    •  Then you probably won't want (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      unfangus

      to see the Pew poll on the immigrant children

      http://www.people-press.org/...

      Overall, 53% favor speeding up this legal process “even if it means some children eligible for asylum are deported.” About four-in-ten (39%) say the U.S. should follow current policy “even though the process could take a long time while the children remain here.”
      And this I find interesting...and scary
      Hispanics are divided, with 49% in support of following current U.S. policy and 47% favoring an expedited legal process for the Central American children. Most whites (56%) favor speeding up the legal process, while African Americans, by 53% to 42%, support following current law.
  •  So then, from this ... (0+ / 0-)
    The drop may have to do with Hickenlooper’s June 13 comments to a group of Colorado sheriffs, in which he seemed to apologize for signing the ban on high-capacity gun magazines and the legislative process in 2013 when the bill was passed while also denying speaking with New York City Mayor Bloomberg, despite phone records showing he had.
    We might conclude that Gun Controls is a sure fire way to turn a Blue state Red really frigging fast.  Who woulda thunk it.

    "It's not surveillance, it's data collection to keep you safe"

    by blackhand on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:13:17 AM PDT

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