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Leading Off:

CT-Gov: Whoa, this is just nuts. Tom Foley, the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Connecticut, decided to make a campaign stop at a paper goods plants whose owners had just decided to shutter it, in theory because he wanted to blame the closure on the policies of Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy. Instead, Foley actually wound up blaming the workers themselves for the plant's closure—I shit you not:

"You want to blame people who are hundreds or thousands of miles away, malign management," Foley told the workers and First Selectwoman Cathy Osten, a Democratic state senator and Malloy supporter. "Listen, you have failed, because you have lost these jobs."
Wow. Just wow. I think even Mitt Romney would have been embarrassed to say something like this. And this quote hardly does justice to the whole debacle. Foley spent a full 30 train-wrecked minutes staging this "press conference" in which he chomped down on both feet so hard he'd going to need physical therapy to walk straight again. (You can watch the entire disaster here.) For a wealthy, self-funding businessman who owns a private jet, this kind of utter tone-deafness can be ruinous.

But Malloy will need Foley to keep undermining himself, because the polling has shown him quite vulnerable. And a new survey from Republican outfit Vox Populi finds the two all but tied, with Malloy ahead 35-34. That leaves a ton of undecideds, of course, making this poll not particularly valuable, but the one bit of good news is that left-leaning independent Jonathan Pelto only garners 3 percent. In a close race, that could be a lot, but at least Pelto isn't pulling down more sizable numbers, something Malloy can ill afford.

Senate:

AK-Sen: A month-old poll from Maryland-based Republican pollster Basswood Research has just surfaced, taken on behalf of an Alaska candidate who is not running for Senate. But some Senate toplines were included, and they find Republican Dan Sullivan beating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich 45-40. HuffPo Pollster's average currently has Begich up 49-44 on Sullivan, but that seems to be heavily influenced by YouGov's very Dem-friendly poll that just put Begich on top 49-37.

NC-Sen: Gravis Marketing: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44, Thom Tillis (R): 41.

NV-Sen, -Gov: No one cares about Nevada's governor's race this year, since GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval is on cruise control against his utterly Some Dude Democratic opponent, Bob Goodman. And that's exactly what a new survey from Republican pollster Harper Polling shows, with Sandoval ahead 56-34. But Harper also included a hypothetical 2016 match between Sandoval and Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, who will be up for re-election that year. Sandoval leads Reid 53-43, but of course, Harper is trying to poll a presidential-year race with a midterm-year model. They're certainly not alone: A lot of firms like to toss in these sorts of questions for fun. But that's all they're good for—fun.

SD-Sen: It's well outside the ordinary to release an internal poll that shows you taking just a quarter of the vote in a general election, but then again, South Dakota's Senate race this year is pretty strange to begin with. Democrat Rick Weiland just published numbers from Clarity Campaigns that give Republican Mike Rounds a 34-24 lead, with Obama-supporting Republican-turned-independent Larry Pressler at 10 and Republican-turned-independent Gordon Howie, a conservative true believer, at just 3.

That leaves a very large 29 percent undecided, and Clarity's memo tries to suggest that this pool of voters is fairly equally divided, with 42 percent leaning Republican and 36 percent leaning Democratic. The difficulty for Weiland, though, is that he's 10 points behind, so if these voters wind up cleaving to their expected party preferences, he can't make up any ground.

Still, Rounds has only managed a plurality in all four polls that have included Pressler—though whoever wins this race may indeed do so with something like 40 percent. And interestingly, the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity recently said it would open an office in South Dakota. There's no word as to whether they'll spend real money on this race, but the fact that they're even keeping an eye on it is notable.

TN-Sen: With just a week to go until the GOP primary, Sen. Lamar! Alexander leads state Rep. Joe Carr by a 53-24 margin according to his latest internal poll from North Star Opinion Research. That's a pretty minimal change from Alexander's previous poll 10 days ago, which had him ahead 53-21. Early in July, a Tea Party Nation-sponsored poll pegged the contest as just a 7-point race, but no further polling has substantiated that claim.

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov: A new poll for the Illinois Education Association from Democratic pollster Harstad Research finds Republican businessman Bruce Rauner leading Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by a 46-42 margin, numbers that the IEA (which has endorsed Quinn) is trying to portray as a "dead heat." But if I were them, I'd be feeling pretty queasy if the best a friendly internal can do is show a very vulnerable incumbent at 42 percent. Maybe Quinn has some sleeves we don't know about that have unseen tricks stuffed up in them, but the guy sure ain't looking hale.

MI-Gov: Rasmussen: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 45, Mark Schauer (D): 42.

House:

KS-04: A couple of outside groups have spent a bit o' cash on next week's GOP primary in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, where ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt is trying to win back his old seat from the guy he wholeheartedly endorsed to replace him, Rep. Mike Pompeo. One $40,000 ad buy comes from Kansans for Responsible Government, a PAC run by Wink Hartman, who ran against Pompeo in 2010 and loathed him so much he threatened to continue on as an independent. (Alas, he demurred.)

Meanwhile, a group called Every Voice Action is jumping in with a bigger $125,000 expenditure also targeting Pompeo. We don't have copies of the actual ads, but if it's these guys, then they're a sort of anti-big money group, which is interesting since you don't exactly associate Todd Tiahrt with goo-goo causes.

MI-14, -03, -04: Thanks to the gracious Kyle Melinn and the assiduous folks at the subscription-based tipsheet MIRS News, we have our hands on a big batch of new polling data for next week's primaries in Michigan. And a major upset may be brewing in at least one race:

MI-03 (R): Strategic National: Rep. Justin Amash: 51, Brian Ellis: 31 (Mid-July: 47-24 Amash).

MI-04 (R): Strategic National: John Moolenaar: 35, Paul Mitchell: 35, Peter Konetchy: 11.

MI-04 (R): Mitchell Research: Moolenaar: 38, Mitchell: 38, Konetchy: 9.

MI-14 (D): Mitchell Research: Rudy Hobbs: 38, Hansen Clarke: 25, Brenda Lawrence: 22.

It's that last poll that stands out as "whoa!" Clarke, a former congressman, and Lawrence, the mayor of Southfield and the 2010 Democratic lieutenant governor nominee, have each produced polls showing them in the lead for the dark blue 14th, based in Detroit, while Hobbs, a state representative, has always been the third wheel. But Hobbs has done a much better job consolidating establishment support, ranging from the local chamber of commerce, the UAW, and Sen. Carl Levin, as well as his brother, Rep. Sandy Levin, whose GOAL PAC paid for this poll and has also sent mailers on Hobbs' behalf.

On Wednesday, Hobbs got a further big boost, earning the endorsement of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who powered his way to an unlikely victory of his own last year. And while this poll is from an interested party, it could also help Hobbs change perceptions about his chances in the waning days of the race. If he pulls off a win here, it would be most impressive indeed.

As for the two Republican primaries on the board, Amash's large lead on Ellis remains largely unchanged in the 3rd, though the Club for Growth isn't taking any changes and is spending $138,000 on TV ads to help Amash down the stretch. However, over in the 4th, an earlier poll from EPIC-MRA showed Moolenaar far behind the self-funding Mitchell, who'd pounded his opponent with tons of negative ads. But now both Mitchell Research and Strategic National agree that the race is a dead-even tossup. If nothing else, Tuesday should be interesting in Michigan.

TN-04: Here's another anecdotal-but-interesting piece on another Republican primary in Tennessee, this time in the 4th District. That's where Rep. Scott DesJarlais is ostensibly fighting for his political life in his first renomination battle since revelations two years ago that he carried on an affair with a patient, then pushed her to get an abortion. The shocking scandal nearly cost DesJarlais his seat in 2012, despite the district's heavy Republican lean, and many political observers figured he'd be doomed this year.

And the early signs this cycle all pointed in exactly that direction. DesJarlais wound up with just a single challenger, state Sen. Jim Tracy, a credible opponent and strong fundraiser. Indeed, as Tracy pulled in big dollars, DesJarlais' own finances dried up, making him look more vulnerable than ever. But as Emily Cahn now writes, some Tennessee Republicans think that enough voters have forgiven DesJarlais at this point to allow him to survive.

And with just a week to go before the primary, Tracy finally went negative on DesJarlais with TV attack ads about his infamous Scandal—not a sign that Tracy thinks he's winning. (Weirdly, though, Tracy seemed to pull his punch.) What's more, a poll released in early July gave DesJarlais a 45-20 lead; Tracy's camp sniffed at the results but refused to provide contradictory numbers of their own. If DesJarlais does in fact pull this one out, he'd just be the latest in a long line of family values transgressors to nevertheless earn absolution from conservative voters.

Other Races:

CO-AG: The Republican group oriented toward winning attorney general races, RAGA (or the Republican Attorneys General Association), just anted up a $2.6 million reservation for television ads in Colorado's hotly contested open-seat race between Republican Cynthia Coffman (the wife of Rep. Mike Coffman) and Democrat Don Quick. It's a big chunk of the $7.4 million in contributions that RAGA has taken in this cycle, and that's already quadruple the most anyone has ever spent trying to win the state's top legal job before (Coffman herself has raised only $253,000 so far). As a point of comparison, Democrat Kamala Harris raised $4 million to win California's attorney general race in 2010, a state with more than seven times as many residents to reach. (David Jarman)

Ads (Jeff Singer):

KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell.

MT-Sen: Republican Rep. Steve Daines talks about how he'll embody the spirit of Montana, a place "where your word is your bond." Daines doesn't directly bring up his Democratic opponent Sen. John Walsh or his plagiarism scandal, but it's not hard to read into the subtext of this spot.

WV-Sen: Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito ties Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant as closely to Obama as she can.

TN-Sen: Another very cheap-looking spot from Republican physician George Flinn.

FL-Gov: Democratic former Gov. Charlie Crist.

HI-Gov: Democratic state Sen. David Ige.

MI-Gov: The RGA against former Democratic Mark Schauer.

PA-Gov: Republican Gov. Tom Corbett attacking Democrat Tom Wolf.

MI-04: Republican businessman Paul Mitchell.

TN-03: Republican Rep. Chuck Fleischmann's spot stars Mike Huckabee.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's frustrating (9+ / 0-)

    That these midwestern Bagger governors like Snyder, Kaisch, and Walker aren't bombing and are over half likely to win re-election.

    I guess that we still are half lucky that Corbett, LePage, Brownback, and Scott are luckly to lose.

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:14:22 AM PDT

    •  We'll defeat Kasich, I promise (7+ / 0-)

      He's got a lot of baggage, a lot of corruption, and it will be used against him.

      Id love to see him do a perp walk before election day and if the FBI did their job, it could happen.

      Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

      by Betty Pinson on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:47:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Snyder and Walker (4+ / 0-)

      are in tossup races. I think in Wisconsin it'll be like that till election day and it'll all come down to get out the vote efforts.

      In Michigan we've seen the polling close, so by election day it may not be a tossup.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 07:13:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And that Rauner may win Illinois' Governorship too (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, Tuffie, Stude Dude, camlbacker

      It's mind-numbing how the electorate seems so willing to buy the Republican/Koch lies.  I have volunteered for Democrats here in Illinois almost all of my sixty years of living here, and I have never been so frustrated---and depressed--over people's willingness to believe the lies, stoked fears and hated-based advertisement of Republican candidates.  

      If Illinois goes the way of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio--not to mention Iowa--I do not think that even Heaven will be able to help us with the impending damage that will be wreaked upon the Environment alone.  We truly have become an America of, by and for the Corporations.  And tragically, a large percentage of the electorate is just fine with this.  I only wish that there was some way to get all those folks who sit out elections to vote--or even to register.  Needless-to-say, we Democrats are trying and will continue!!!

  •  Foley is evil like all teapublikkkans (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pilotshark, Betty Pinson

    I voted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 because it is my right, my responsibility and because my parents moved from Alabama to Ohio to vote. Unfortunately, the republicons want to turn Ohio into Alabama.

    by a2nite on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:31:51 AM PDT

  •  The same ilk (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Betty Pinson

    blame the girl for being raped by a guy.

    A government afraid of its citizens is a Democracy. Citizens afraid of government is tyranny! Thomas Jefferson

    by wbishop3 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:38:27 AM PDT

  •  Why is Malloy unpopular? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu.

    by CarolinNJ on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:52:08 AM PDT

    •  Several Reasons (5+ / 0-)

      Dan Malloy and the Connecticut General Assembly did raise state income tax rates in his first term, and while those tax increases were necessary, they were not structured in the most progressive way possible.  So, middle and lower-middle income earners saw tax increases.  Also, after being elected with the help of public employee unions, he called for and eventually won a contract concession from state employees that eliminated a couple of raises, increased pension and health care costs, and raised the retirement eligibility age.  And, he has angered teachers by mocking tenure and pushing an "education reform" agenda that relies heavily on charter schools.  Plus, he is just not a warm and cuddly type of guy.  

      38, male, NY-14 (born), NJ-9 (raised), MA-1 (college), CT-1 (now)

      by kalu on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 07:17:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's never been popular (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kalu, Amber6541, magsview, slothlax

      He won a very close race in 2010 and inherited a budget disaster. Right away he moved to close a deficit of over $3 billion with a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. Though the fiscally responsible thing, it was very unpopular and his approval ratings have been low pretty much throughout his term. The state's ranked last in economic growth the past couple of years (negative growth in 2012, not helped by Malloy's cuts in state employment to balance the budget) and the natives are restless.

      “Republicans...think American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people... And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 07:19:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's not a bad guy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slothlax, fenway49

        but some of his policies are atrocious.

        The problem with Malloy is that he's your typical DLC pro corporate Dem.  He's good on some social issues but then sells out on economic ones.  

        For example, Malloy has not only sold the public education system in CT up the river to private for profit vultures but he's also taken every opportunity to kick teachers while they're down.  He's pushed to consolidate the Higher Education system and they brought in some corporate guy to do it.  He gave a speech at my local University which came out of corporate playbook.  Lauding the University of Phoenix model for online education, eliminating redundancies in the state university system, targeted curriculum to focus on growth industries, eliminating waste, blah blah.  Malloy has a hard on for charter schools and his cronies have tried to push the private education model which he pushed through in Stamford when he was mayor.  In Bridgeport the parents revolted.  Hartford is a mess.  It's been good money after bad down a Siberian sinkhole.  

        Another example, Malloy has tried to attract companies to CT.  In some instances it makes sense like in medical and biotech.  In other cases it's been horrible.  Spending tons of money in Stamford (again) to attract a huge hedge fund.  Only that hedge fund is already IN CT, in Westport to be exact which is 30 minutes away.  To make matters worse, the plan was to redevelop a waterfront property in Stamford which the locals vehemently objected to.  It got so bad the hedge fund backed out after the state spent a ton of money and decided to stay in Westport.  The state has given a ton of money to keep UBS in Stamford in the form of tax breaks after they threatened to leave and after they were awarded the tax breaks they moved many of their employees to NYC anyway.  Malloy has a hard on for finance and Stamford and yes Stamford is BOOMING.  Local upscale communities around Stamford are doing quite well and the Metro North New Haven/I-95 corridor is growing.  Unfortunately all the money spent on infrastructure and tax incentives in the SW corner of Stamford has not translated in jobs elsewhere.  

        Then there was the tax increases.  Malloy inherited a freaking fiscal mess.  He managed to pass a massive tax increase coupled with cuts to state employees benefits.  The increases were nowhere near as progressive as they should have been and the cuts to the state employees were deep.  It was bitter.  Many state employees hate Malloy for it and he forced it through needlessly.  The economy took a hit.  Millionaires got pissed off yet the only group who is doing well in CT are the millionaires.  Despite dire warnings by assholes like hedge funder Peter Shiff and others, millionaires haven't headed for the exits.  Rather there are more and more of them coming every fucking day.  Towns like New Canaan, Darien, Westport and Greenwich are breaking records for teardowns, land prices and new McMansions.  You can't swing a golf club without bashing a Maserati, Porche, Tesla, or any other luxury car in SW CT.  Yet everyone else outside of the country club set is struggling.  Well millionaires are not going to vote for Malloy when one of them is running.  Everyone else is pissed off at Malloy.

        The problem is Malloy has done alot of good stuff but it's largely been overshadowed by the bad.  We implemented Obamacare without a hitch.  One of the best run state exchanges in the nation.  It was so well run we're contracting out to other states in run up for the next sign up period.  CT has one of the lowest uninsured rates in the nation.  Malloy raised the minimum wage to $10.10 phased in over 3 years.  Paid sick leave, protections for LGBT, tougher gun laws and so on.  Malloy also is very progressive on energy conservation.  I fear that will not be enough though.  Hopefully Foley really burned himself enough yesterday but this is going to be a tough race.  Malloy won with the help of the Working Families Party in 2010.  In a red tea flavored tide he managed to eke it out.  This years electorate won't be as red.  The problem is Malloy has burned his base and they're not as likely to turn out for him unless Foley angers the Dem base so much the turn out to spite him.  Some of the Dem base is turning to third party Pelto who IMO will do more damage than good with his vanity run, especially if Foley manages to win.            

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 09:35:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  "It takes a worker to destroy a job" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fenway49, slothlax

    Woe is me. Workers destroy their jobs and the poor have all the money.

    Thank you Lord Above, that we have the richer, harder working, job creating folks a looking after us and keeping us busy.

    The GOP says:

    "It takes a worker to destroy a job"

  •  Quinn's an old political hack running a state (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slothlax, Mike Kahlow

    that's in trouble.

    He doesn't have a lot of tricks up his sleeves or charisma on the campaign trail.

    His primary strength is being a Democrat in a Democratic state.  He depends mightily on unacceptable Republican candidates and still nearly lost last time around.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 06:59:41 AM PDT

  •  So, CT must be full of it. Employers, that is... (0+ / 0-)

    ... not employees. And money men and women, who are the Job Creators and ... Uh, oh, wait.

    2014 is HERE. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

    by TRPChicago on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 07:07:11 AM PDT

    •  We have our share of hedge fund assholes (0+ / 0-)

      Being we're the Hedge Fund capital of the world.  Malloy hasn't helped by trying to attract more of them here either.  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 09:39:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I still have hope for IL (0+ / 0-)

    We are a vary partisan state that is tough to poll. According to polling, Quinn should have lost in 2010.

    I'm still upset that Bill Daley pulled out like he did. He would have easily won the primary and delivered a decisive victory in the general.

  •  Foley is Not Self-Funding (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, slothlax

    Although King Tom Foley self-funded his last race for governor to the tune of $12.8 million, this time around, he is making use of Connecticut's Citizen Election Program (public financing).

    39, male, NY-14 (born), NJ-9 (raised), MA-1 (college), CT-1 (now)

    by kalu on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 07:20:21 AM PDT

  •  Foley is clueless (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DisNoir36

    You do not go to campaign events in a BMW-even Mittens knew better. Probably a guy who won't take advice because he thinks his millions have conferred infinite wisdom in everything upon him. The Malloy campaign should get at least ten ads from this fiasco.

    "Well Clarice, have the lambs stopped screaming?"

    by buffie on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 08:01:00 AM PDT

  •  Can never have too many Ralphs, I guess (0+ / 0-)

    Hey Pelto -- go away.

  •  The final Foley quote ... Yikes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    magsview, slothlax

    "The plant's closing. One hundred and forty jobs are leaving the community. What more do I need to know to come here and talk about it and talk about the failure of Gov. Malloy's policies?" Foley said. "That's all I need."

    Something bad happened. That's all I need to know before I blame Gov. Malloy.

  •  Let's call workers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DisNoir36, slothlax

    "job destroyers;" that sounds like a winning strategy.

    I'm living in America, and in America you're on your own. America's not a country. It's just a business.

    by CFAmick on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 08:39:42 AM PDT

  •  It's extraordinary that we've (0+ / 0-)

    gotten to the point in our political discourse where someone running for public office will provide cover for a private business to divest its assets to corner the market, and think that this will help him get elected.

    I'm living in America, and in America you're on your own. America's not a country. It's just a business.

    by CFAmick on Fri Aug 01, 2014 at 12:02:25 PM PDT

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