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I have been on the Republican mailing list for some time...so I get all sorts of crap. Including "I miss W" mug offers...if you can believe it!

Today I got an email fundraising to take the Senate. This email convinces me that the Republicans have ALREADY fumbled their chances to take the Senate. Let me show you. Here is the gist of the email:

The GOP must win six Democrat Senate seats to win a Republican Senate Majority.

Here are the top ten democrats who are the most vulnerable senators according to recent polls:

1.    Mark Pryor, Arkansas
2.    Mary Landrieu, Louisiana
3.    Kay Hagan, North Carolina
4.    Mark Begich, Alaska
5.    Mark Udall, Colorado
6.    Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
7.    Al Franken, Minnesota
8.    Jeff Merkley, Oregon
9.    Mark Warner, Virginia
10.    Tom Udall, New Mexico

Sounds like they have a real shot, right? I mean they are claiming there are 10 vulnerable Dems and they only have to win 6 of those seats. Time to panic right?

Wrong. Time to do some real defense, perhaps, but their own analysis shows they have almost no chance of actually taking the Senate. Let me show you...

What do the recent polls actually show about each of these races:

1.    Mark Pryor, Arkansas (Leans R)
2.    Mary Landrieu, Louisiana (Tossup)
3.    Kay Hagan, North Carolina (Leans D)
4.    Mark Begich, Alaska (Tossup)
5.    Mark Udall, Colorado (Lean D)
6.    Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire (Likely D)
7.    Al Franken, Minnesota (Likely D)
8.    Jeff Merkley, Oregon (Likely D)
9.    Mark Warner, Virginia (Likely D)
10.    Tom Udall, New Mexico (Safe D)

The chances are, based on those recent polls, Democrats will win 6 or 7 of those races. Some of them aren't even close! And they ignore the fact that two Repub seats are more vulnerable based on recent polls than most of those "vulnerable" Democratic seats.

11. Kentucky (Leans R)
12. Georgia (Likely R)

So Dems have more of a chance to pick up Kentucky than the Repubs have of picking up 5 of those 10 seats the Repubs say they need to focus on.

Folks, awhile back we were in serious risk of losing the Senate. But I never really thought we would. And at this point it seems the Repubs have fumbled their chances.

So let's make sure we don't fumble as well. Let's counter the desperate Repub last ditch attempt to win the Senate. DONATE NOW TO THE CLOSEST RACES OF 2014 (including the closest Senate races). We are unlikely to lose the Senate. But if we want to make sure of that AND maybe pick up some House seats in the bargain (I particularly like the looks of IA-3 and CO-6!) then we need to push back hard.

So give a little bit to thwart the desperate Greedy Oil Party power grab!

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Comment Preferences

  •  An important lesson for both teams (5+ / 0-)

    Don't count your chickens before the check clears the bank.

    November is a ways away.  Consider how things looked at the start of May.  Things can change like the weather.

    "It's not surveillance, it's data collection to keep you safe"

    by blackhand on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 10:45:41 AM PDT

    •  They need to take six seats (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, blackhand, FG, antirove

      But are already halfway there.

      WV likely R
      MT likely R
      SD likely R

      Also

      open seats in

      Iowa
      and
      Michigan.

      We need to win at least two of
      Pryor
      Landrieu
      Hagan
      Begich

      Hold onto
      Peters
      Udall
      Braley.

      or offset with a steal from Kent or Georgia.

    •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blackhand, Stude Dude, Mopshell

      Between now and November anything can happen to change standings in these races.  If Republicons vote to start impeachment against the President, there is another shutdown, and now we have Iraq in trouble again plus the border, infrastructure, and so many other things including turnout for a normally low count turnout midterm election.  Neither side should count their chickens before they hatch, they may get scrambled eggs instead.

      Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

      by Rosalie907 on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 10:58:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not so far away at this point... (5+ / 0-)

      But yes. Don't count chickens.

      I am confident we won't lose the Senate. BUT...

      First off that isn't good enough for me. I want to see us pick up seats...maybe not in the Senate but the House or Governorships.

      Second, no matter how confident I am now I have a saying:

      Never underestimate the Republicans' ability to buy, cheat, and steal their way to victory and never underestimate the Democrats' ability to fumble. We need to push HARD on the races I highlight on my Act Blue site if we want to do well. But it looks good so far.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Progressive Blogging New York: Write Now NY Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 11:04:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Republican email (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mopshell, Odysseus

    makes no sense. Yes, they must net 6 additional seats to take the Senate, but they need not rely only on that list of incumbents to knock off. The open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are locks for Republican net gains (and Iowa is iffy), meaning they only need to take down three incumbents and hold both of their vulnerable seats.

    "I've always admired your tart honesty and ability to be personally offended by broad social trends." -Principal Skinner.

    by cardinal on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 10:46:04 AM PDT

    •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mopshell, Mokurai

      The email makes no sense. I was merely following its logic. To me it is a further sign of their disarray. I have been following the Senate races for months now and almost all are drifting slowly our way. I don't count on that, but I also see nothing but panic, fear, and loathing on their side, which doesn't bode well for them since some of that panic, fear, and loathing are aimed at others within their party.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Progressive Blogging New York: Write Now NY Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 11:06:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the Republicans would have to run the table and (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333, Mopshell, Odysseus

    hold their seats in Ky and Ga to take over. and their run in the Senate would be very brief, as there are several seats up for election in 2016, such as Johnsons in WI and  mark Kirk in IL, that are almost certain to flip Blue with the higher turnout in Presidential year. the 5 seats that are likely or safe will be holds, which means that the Republicans would have to win every other seat in play, and not lose KY or GA.  Me personallyI say Begich holds in AK, Udall in CO and Hagan in NC. I think Grimes beats McConnell and Nunn just comes up short in GA.

  •  I may be the eternal optimist, but (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, mole333, Mopshell

    think that we can win both GA and KY.  I think Montana and West Virginia are lost (unless Schweitzer gets into the race).  I also think that Pryor, Landrieau and Hagan can possibly hold on.  What does that give us, if they can hold on?  A Senate with an unchanged Democratic majority.

    Anyone arguing that there's no difference between the parties is a fucking moron who can simply go to hell. -- kos

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 10:47:17 AM PDT

  •  Realistically, I'd take Warner, Franken, Tom Udall (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333, KingofSmoke, Mopshell

    Merkley and Shaheen off that list and I wouldn't even put Gary Peters on it. Maybe Bruce Braley but I still feel pretty good about that race. Mark Udall can win this race but it'll be a close one and Pryor will win because Tom Cotton's an idiot. Feel very good about Hagan and Begich. Right now I don't think will know Landrieu's fate until December, I think that race will go into the runoff. Nunn and Grimes I feel very confident about.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 01:02:30 PM PDT

  •  1st assume GOP wins Montana, SD, and WV. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333, FG, Mopshell, Odysseus

    Then from the list above remove all but:
    1.    Mark Pryor, Arkansas (Leans R)
    2.    Mary Landrieu, Louisiana (Tossup)
    4.    Mark Begich, Alaska (Tossup)
    Republicans probably win 1 or 2, not all three.

    But GOP probably lose either Kentucky or Georgia, so

    Democrats have 51 or 52 after November (but more if GOP gives in to TP demand for impeachment or government shut down).

    Another big story for November is the possibility of big Democratic gains in governorships (PA, Maine, Kansas,)

    and  possibly Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, and I wouldn't be surprised if (in an upset) they hold Illinois.

    Btw, while still rather unlikely, Davis in Texas has apparently cut deficit from 12 to 8 points.

  •  I think you're wrong that they need to win six (0+ / 0-)

    of these races. They need to win six Dem seats but that total includes open seats (WV, MT, SD) that they are very likely to win. So they only need to win three from this list and not lose any of theirs.

    •  I didn't say it... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FG, Mopshell

      I was quoting their own fundraising letter. My main point being they are being highly misleading...which means highly Republican. I don't think they can do it. And the fact that their fundraising email is so muddled suggests to me that they are becoming desperate.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Progressive Blogging New York: Write Now NY Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Aug 08, 2014 at 04:14:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This proves what I have been saying. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mopshell, mole333

    I have never thought Republicans would take control of the Senate. I know the MSM has being talking as if they have already won the the Senate. The Tea Party folks are the ones screwing the Republican Party. All democrats have to do and watch the crazies make one gaff after another, and the Senate stays in Democratic control.

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