I have been on the Republican mailing list for some time...so I get all sorts of crap. Including "I miss W" mug offers...if you can believe it!
Today I got an email fundraising to take the Senate. This email convinces me that the Republicans have ALREADY fumbled their chances to take the Senate. Let me show you. Here is the gist of the email:
The GOP must win six Democrat Senate seats to win a Republican Senate Majority.Sounds like they have a real shot, right? I mean they are claiming there are 10 vulnerable Dems and they only have to win 6 of those seats. Time to panic right?
Here are the top ten democrats who are the most vulnerable senators according to recent polls:
1. Mark Pryor, Arkansas
2. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana
3. Kay Hagan, North Carolina
4. Mark Begich, Alaska
5. Mark Udall, Colorado
6. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
7. Al Franken, Minnesota
8. Jeff Merkley, Oregon
9. Mark Warner, Virginia
10. Tom Udall, New Mexico
Wrong. Time to do some real defense, perhaps, but their own analysis shows they have almost no chance of actually taking the Senate. Let me show you...
What do the recent polls actually show about each of these races:
1. Mark Pryor, Arkansas (Leans R)
2. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana (Tossup)
3. Kay Hagan, North Carolina (Leans D)
4. Mark Begich, Alaska (Tossup)
5. Mark Udall, Colorado (Lean D)
6. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire (Likely D)
7. Al Franken, Minnesota (Likely D)
8. Jeff Merkley, Oregon (Likely D)
9. Mark Warner, Virginia (Likely D)
10. Tom Udall, New Mexico (Safe D)
The chances are, based on those recent polls, Democrats will win 6 or 7 of those races. Some of them aren't even close! And they ignore the fact that two Repub seats are more vulnerable based on recent polls than most of those "vulnerable" Democratic seats.
11. Kentucky (Leans R)
12. Georgia (Likely R)
So Dems have more of a chance to pick up Kentucky than the Repubs have of picking up 5 of those 10 seats the Repubs say they need to focus on.
Folks, awhile back we were in serious risk of losing the Senate. But I never really thought we would. And at this point it seems the Repubs have fumbled their chances.
So let's make sure we don't fumble as well. Let's counter the desperate Repub last ditch attempt to win the Senate. DONATE NOW TO THE CLOSEST RACES OF 2014 (including the closest Senate races). We are unlikely to lose the Senate. But if we want to make sure of that AND maybe pick up some House seats in the bargain (I particularly like the looks of IA-3 and CO-6!) then we need to push back hard.