On Tuesday, August 26, 2014, Floridians (or, at least, the most politically active of us) will go to the polls to vote in partisan primaries for Governor, Attorney General, legislative candidates, and county officials, and nonpartisan primaries for judges. The aim of this diary is to give the casual reader an understanding of where the competitive primaries in the state are located, and what we can expect to see as the election results come in.
Note: There are a number of primaries I did not address in detail, because I do not expect there to be any significance to the results.
United States House of Representatives
District 1
2012 results—30% Obama, 69% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican Congressman Jeff Miller is well-funded, popular enough, and not at all vulnerable to a primary challenge, so John Krause's effort is in vain.
Rating—SAFE MILLER.
District 3
2012 results—37% Obama, 61% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Though I would love nothing more than to make Republican Congressman Ted Yoho walk the plank, I do not think that his primary challenger, Jake Rush, is going to make it happen. For one, Rush has a number of alter egos, and regularly dresses up as them. Seriously. Just watch his interview with Stephen Colbert. This is undoubtedly an interesting race, but I do not foresee it being anything other than a Yoho rout (and a bottle of rum).
Rating—LIKELY YOHO.
District 4
2012 results—35% Obama, 63% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Republican Congressman Ander Crenshaw is one of the most anonymous members of Congress, but he's relatively inoffensive, and will not be defeated barring a major scandal. He is the clear favorite over challenger Ryman Shoaf.
Rating—SAFE CRENSHAW.
District 5
2012 results—71% Obama, 28% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Which Republican will win the honor of being crushed by Democratic Congresswoman Corrine Brown? It does not really matter, but the choices are Thuy Lowe and Glo Smith. With no polling and no real support for either candidate, I am completely ignorant as to which candidate will come out ahead. In theory, either of them could.
Rating—TOSSUP.
District 7
2012 results—47% Obama, 52% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—And now we have reached my own congressional district. I wish that we had a stronger Democratic candidate and a weaker Republican incumbent, but we can only play the hand that we are dealt. Republican Congressman John Mica, an institution in Central Florida, is being challenged in the Republican primary by a number of challengers, including Don Oehlrich and Kelly Shirley, but the most serious of the contenders is David Smith. It is possible that conservative dissatisfaction with Mica's long tenure in Washington could make this a surprisingly close contest, but it is difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Mica loses. But after Eric Cantor, anything is possible.
Rating—LIKELY MICA.
District 9
2012 results—62% Obama, 37% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson is being challenged in the primary by college professor and Volusia County resident Nicholas Ruiz. Ruiz was last seen running in the Democratic primary in District 7 in 2012...despite not living there either. Though I am no fan of Grayson's, Ruiz does not seem like much of an improvement and stands no chance.
Rating—SAFE GRAYSON.
Republican Primary Analysis—Which Republican will win the honor of being crushed by Grayson? Republicans can choose between Jorge Bonilla, Carol Platt, or Peter Vivaldi. None of them stands a chance of winning, and none of them is an elected official. I tentatively give the edge to Platt, as she significantly outpaced her opponents in fundraising, but it is hard to tell, just like the District 5 primary.
Rating—LEAN PLATT.
District 10
2012 results—46% Obama, 53% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—When former Orlando Police Chief and 2012 nominee Val Demings decided not to challenge Republican Congressman Daniel Webster again, we lost any shot we had at winning this seat. Now, former Eustis City Commissioner Bill Ferree, pilot Michael McKenna, and Shayan Modarres, a lawyer whose claim to fame was representing the Martin family in the Trayvon Martin case, are running to win the primary. Ferree and Modarres are the nominal frontrunners, and I am reluctant to characterize the race beyond that.
Rating—TOSSUP.
District 18
2012 results—48% Obama, 52% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Who would have thought that Republicans would not be able to find a single competent Republican to run against Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy in a district that Romney carried by nearly four points? The most serious candidate in the race is former State Representative Carl Domino, who was last seen losing a Republican primary for the State Senate. The other nominally relevant candidates include Alan Schlesinger, the former Mayor of Derby (Connecticut) and the 2006 Republican nominee for the Senate (in Connecticut), and Calvin Turnquest, a former Tequesta Village Councilman. Beverly Hires and Brian Lara are also running. Domino is probably the slight favorite to win the primary, but with so many low-quality candidates, it is conceivable (and would be hilarious) if someone else managed to win.
Rating—LEAN DOMINO.
District 20
2012 results—83% Obama, 17% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Democratic Congressman Alcee Hastings, though he is difficult at times, does not face a serious challenge in winning re-election in this solidly liberal district, even though he is being opposed by Jean Enright and Jameel McCline in the Democratic primary.
Rating—SAFE HASTINGS.
District 21
2012 results—61% Obama, 39% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Nor does Democratic Congressman Ted Deutch face a serious challenger in Emmanuel Morel.
Rating—SAFE DEUTCH.
District 22
2012 results—54% Obama, 45% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Another Republican recruiting failure took place here, where Democratic Congresswoman Lois Frankel looks set to cruise against whichever sacrificial lamb the Republicans nominate. Will it be Andrea McGee, Paul Spain, or David Wagie? It does not matter, and there is no clear favorite. Spain, however, seems to have the most serious campaign, so I would tentatively characterize him as the frontrunner.
Rating—LEAN SPAIN.
District 23
2012 results—61% Obama, 38% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Who gets to lose to Debbie Wasserman Schulz? It looks like Joe Kaufman will defeat Juan Garcia to have the honor of doing just that. He has raised a significant amount of money for a sacrificial lamb, and has actually won the support of former pizza delivery guy company CEO Herman Cain. He's the likely nominee, and he gets to lose to Wasserman Schulz in the general election. But, if nothing else, you can watch him get destroyed in this Daily Show segment.
Rating—LEAN KAUFMAN.
District 24
2012 results—88% Obama, 12% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Frederica Wilson faces a nominal primary challenger in Michael Etienne, whom she should be able to comfortably defeat to win renomination.
Rating—SAFE WILSON.
District 26
2012 results—53% Obama, 46% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Miami-Dade County School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is a top recruit for the Republicans against Democratic Congressman Joe Garcia, but he has to make it through the Republican primary first, where he faces Ed MacDougall, Joe Martinez, Lorenzo Starbuck, and former Congressman David Rivera...? But Rivera dropped out. Or did he? The world may never know for sure. Now there are allegations that Rivera is running a stealth campaign. Though it would be surprising if Rivera were anything but a minor annoyance for Curbelo, this could be interesting to watch.
Rating—LIKELY CURBELO.
Governor
Democratic Primary Analysis—In the contest between former Governor Charlie Crist and former State Senator Nan Rich, the question is not who will win, but rather, by how much he will win. Though Rick Scott's allies have, in theory, attempted to damage Crist in the Democratic primary (I received five or six mailers attacking his "conservative" record and promoting Rich's progressive record), the efforts do not seem to be hurting Crist at all. He's locked up most of the institutional support in the state and is cruising towards renomination. Any chance of him losing the primary dissolved when Senator Bill Nelson and former Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, among others, declined to run. The question on my mind is how well he will do on primary night—it would not be inconceivable at all that he could clear 70%. In fact, I would be curious to see whether he manages to earn a greater percentage in the primary than does Rick Scott, who faces even worse challengers.
Rating—SAFE CRIST.
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Governor Rick Scott is being nominally challenged in the primary by conservative activist and perennial candidate Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder and pharmacist Yinka Abosede Adeshina, and he is a lock to win renomination. Though there were rumblings that someone might challenge him the primary, those rumblings obviously never resulted in a serious challenge, though I am curious as to how a competitive Republican primary would have played out. Cuevas-Neunder seems like a more serious challenger than Adeshina, but in the end, it matters not, because Scott will easily win. However, I am interested in how well he does. Crist has the potential to do better than him, and if he does, I think that would suggest a greater support for Crist among Democrats than for Scott among Republicans, and that would be something to watch for in the general election.
Rating—SAFE SCOTT.
Attorney General
Democratic Primary Analysis—Ordinarily, State Representative Perry Thurston, the current Minority Leader in the State House, would be a strong favorite over George Sheldon, but there are a number of extenuating circumstances in the race. For one, Sheldon is a known quantity in Florida political circles. He has had a long and storied political career, first serving as a State Representative in the 1970s and 1980s, a Deputy Attorney General under Bob Butterworth, the Associate Dean at St. Thomas Law School, the Secretary of the Department of Children and Families under Charlie Crist, and then the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services under Barack Obama. He also ran for Education Commissioner in 2000 (when it was an elected position), but lost to Crist, and then ran for Attorney General in 2002, but lost to then-State Senator Buddy Dyer, who in turn lost to...Crist. Speaking from a personal perspective, Sheldon has run a much more serious campaign than has Thurston, and he has been traveling the state, speaking to the county parties and communities about his campaign, while Thurston has been all but invisible. Though neither candidate has raised the necessary money to compete with incumbent Attorney General Pam Bondi in the fall, Sheldon has narrowly outraised Thurston and appears to have locked up most of the institutional support. Sheldon is my choice for Attorney General, and I would be mildly surprised if he ends up losing the primary.
State Senate
District 6
2012 results—39% Obama, 60% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Senator John Thrasher, who has served in the Senate since a 2009 special election, will face challenger Derek Hankerson in the Republican primary. Hankerson appears to be a Tea Party-flavored candidate, as he is the former Chairman of the Putnam County Tea Party Patriots, but he has not raised hardly any money at all, and should not be a significant obstacle to Thrasher. Expect Thrasher to cruise to renomination, and then to cruise to re-election in the general election against Democratic nominee Kathleen Trued and independent candidate Greg Feldman in this strongly Republican district based in northeast Florida.
Rating—SAFE THRASHER.
District 12
2012 results—66% Obama, 33% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Senator Geraldine Thompson, who has served in the Senate since she was first elected in 2012, faces a potentially tough primary challenger in former State Senator Gary Siplin. Thompson and Siplin have a nasty history, as she was a primary challenger of his in 2006 when he served in the Senate, and then in 2012, when he was term-limited, Thompson defeated his wife in the Democratic primary to succeed him. Thompson is a fairly progressive Democrat, and Siplin was far too conservative for such a deep-blue district when he represented it, so we should root for Thompson to win renomination, which she likely will. Siplin was never terribly popular in his district, as in 2008, when he was running for re-election in a time when his Orlando-based district voted overwhelmingly for Obama, he only narrowly won with 50.52% of the vote. At the time, he was battling felony charges for grand theft. Additionally, Thompson has raised over $100,000 for her campaign thus far, while Siplin has raised only a couple thousand. And, for what it's worth, Thompson has won the endorsement of the Orlando Sentinel.
Rating—LIKELY THOMPSON.
Republican Primary Analysis—Fritz Jackson Seide, Thompson's 2012 opponent, and Edward DeAguilera are the candidates for the Republican nomination. Neither candidate has made much noise, and either would be a decided underdog in the general election in such a blue district. I tentatively give the edge to DeAguilera, as he has significantly outraised Seide and as Seide is a former Democrat who ran for the State House in 2004 and 2006 and only became a Republican because he did not feel that he could win the Democratic primary against Thompson in 2012, but I would not be surprised if Seide emerged to win the primary.
Rating—LEAN DeAGUILERA.
District 16
2012 results—44% Obama, 55% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Senator Thad Altman, who has served in the Senate since 2008, faces a challenger in businesswoman Monique Miller. Miller, like Hankerson, appears to be a Tea Party-flavored candidate, as she narrowly won a straw poll put on by the Brevard County Tea Party a few months ago. And though she has not raised much money, she did give herself a $40,000 loan. If she has deeper pockets, she might be able to make this a race, as Altman has close to $100,000 on hand. However, Altman is a fairly popular incumbent with a history of winning in this district, which is based in Brevard and Indian River Counties on the Atlantic coast, and he is favored to win re-election. The winner of the Republican primary is all but assured to win the general election, as there is only a write-in candidate running, who might very well drop out after the primary takes place.
Rating—LIKELY ALTMAN.
District 20
2012 results—48% Obama, 51% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Senator Jack Latvala, who has served in the Senate since 2010, and previously served from 1994 to 2002, faces a challenger in businessman Zahid Roy, who challenged him in the Republican primary in 2012. Roy's 2012 challenge of Latvala did not go down successfully, as Latvala won renomination with 86% of the vote. Latvala is extremely popular in this swing district, which is based in northern Pinellas County, as he has earned a genuinely moderate reputation from his time in the Senate, which may be why he dramatically out-performed Romney in 2012 and did not earn a Democratic challenger for the general election. Roy, however, has "an endorsement from the Lord," or at least he did in 2012. Since then, the Lord may have moved over to Team Latvala. Expect Latvala to win renomination easily, and then to win the general election in a landslide against Libertarian nominee Tony Caso.
Rating—SAFE LATVALA.
District 30
2012 results—40% Obama, 59% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Senator Lizbeth Benacquisto, who has served in the Senate since 2010 and whom eagle-eyed readers might remember from her failed 2014 campaign for Congress in the special election in Florida's 19th congressional district, is running for re-election. After her loss to Curt Clawson in the Republican primary earlier this year, she faces a primary challenger in Michael Dreikorn, who also ran in the special congressional primary, though he placed fourth out of four candidates. Dreikorn is yet another Tea Party-flavored candidate challenging an incumbent State Senator in a primary, but this primary is unlike any other discussed so far, because this primary is OPEN! Florida has open primaries when only candidates of one party file for an office, which means that registered Democrats can vote in this Republican primary. Though Benacquisto has raised over half a million dollars and has more than $200,000 on hand, it is entirely possible that registered Democrats in the area might try to oust Benacquisto, the current Majority Leader of the Florida Senate, as she is a rising star in the party. (Can you say Eric Cantor?) Ordinarily, I would rate this as a race where Benacquisto has a clear and decisive edge, but the potential for shenanigans by registered Democrats in this district, based in Charlotte and Lee Counties, prevents me from being confident in that conclusion. I'll be watching this primary closely on Election Day; stay tuned!
Rating—LEAN BENACQUISTO.
District 32
2012 results—44% Obama, 55% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Senator Joe Negron, who has served in the Senate since a 2009 special election, just like Thrasher, is running for re-election, and is being challenged by arcade owner Brandon Cannon in the Republican primary. Negron is in a strong position, as he currently is sitting on a warchest of $400,000, and should easily defeat Cannon in this district that stretches from Indian River County to Palm Beach County on the Atlantic coast. The eventual Republican nominee will have an easy time in the general election against Bruno Moore, the Democratic nominee.
Rating—SAFE NEGRON.
District 36
2012 results—88% Obama, 12% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Senator Oscar Braynon, who has served in the Senate since a 2011 special election, is the only Democrat serving in the Senate to have a primary challenger. Businessman Auguste Blemur is challenging Braynon in the primary, and though he wrote himself a check for about $30,000, he should be no match for Braynon, who has raised $100,000 and has $40,000 on hand.
Rating—SAFE BRAYNON.
State House
District 3
2012 results—22% Obama, 77% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Representative Doug Broxson is a lock for re-election against conservative activist Jamie Smith in the Republican primary. Don't expect an upset in this staunchly conservative district in Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties in northwest Florida.
Rating—SAFE BROXSON.
District 5
2012 results—26% Obama, 73% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Former State Representative Brad Drake, who opted not to seek re-election in 2012 to avoid a bruising primary with fellow State Representative Marti Coley, is now running to succeed Coley in a district that closely resembles the district he previously represented. He will face realtor Jan Hooks in the primary, and normally, he, as a former legislator, would be overwhelmingly favored. He has raised several hundred thousand dollars for his campaign, though it should be noted that about half of the money that he has raised was initially intended to be used in 2012, but he just stockpiled it when he did not end up running for re-election. Hooks, however, appears to have more grassroots support than Drake does. Most of Drake's fundraising has been from PACs and organizations outside the district. For example, in the month of January, Drake did not report a single contribution from an individual in the district, while Hooks raised nearly $50,000, none of it from PACs, and apparently raised more money than any other candidate running for the House that month. The advantage is with Drake, but do not be surprised if Hooks manages to beat him. In the general election, the Republican nominee, whoever they are, will handily defeat Democratic nominee Travis Pitts and Libertarian nominee Karen Schoen.
Rating—LEAN DRAKE.
District 6
2012 results—28% Obama, 71% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—The race to replace term-limited Republican State Representative Jimmy Patronis is quite crowded and difficult to handicap. Thelma Rohan, a former Bay County School Board member, campaigns on her opposition to national education standards, which will likely play quite well in a Tea Party-flavored district like this one. She also appears to have some level of establishment support, as she is a Bay County Republican State Committeewoman and the former Chairman of the Bay County Republican Party. She ran for Bay County School Superintendent in 2008, but placed third in the Republican primary with 21% of the vote. Melissa Hagan, like Rohan, is a State Committeewoman, and she currently works as the Chief Development Officer at Gulf Coast State College. Tho Bishop is the former Deputy Communications Director for the State House Financial Services Committee, a position from which he resigned so that he could run for the legislature. He appears to be from the libertarian wing of the Republican Party, supporting Ted Cruz and strongly opposing domestic surveillance. Finally, Jay Trumbull is a very young (24 years old) businessman who works for his family's business in water bottling and conditioning. Which of these candidates will emerge as the Republican nominee? Hagan and Trumbull seem like the nominal frontrunners, and I would cautiously predict that either one of them could win the primary. Bishop's fundraising has been anemic (less than $5000 raised), and for someone who has worked in the legislature before, that suggests an inherent weakness to me. Rohan simply does not seem as though she has the profile to emerge victorious in a competitive primary—she is in her late sixties, has a background in education, campaigns on environmental protection, and has lackluster fundraising. Hagan, on the other hand, has racked up a number of endorsements from local elected officials and has fundraised impressively. Trumbull, finally, has far-and-away the best fundraising numbers of the group, raising close to $200,000, none of it from self-funding, which is better than some State Senators. Good fundraising numbers do not equate to votes, but Trumbull has the necessary resources to inform voters in what will surely be a low-turnout election.
Rating—TOSSUP.
Democratic Primary Analysis—Surprisingly for such a red district, there is actually a competitive Democratic primary, too! Jamie Shepard and Ryan Singleton are both running, but the edge is with Shepard. She is currently the President of the Bay County League of Women Voters and has a long history in Bay County of running an advertising agency for twenty years, serving on a planning commission, and working for Gulf Coast State College. Singleton, on the other hand, is as young as Trumbull (24 years old) and has not built up an impressive profile in the district. Though her fundraising has not been great, Shepard has outraised Singleton, too.
Rating—LIKELY SHEPARD.
District 6
2012 results—77% Obama, 22% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent State Representative Alan Williams is running for his final term in the State House, and faces state employee Dianne Williams-Cox in the Democratic primary. Though Williams is a pretty inoffensive incumbent and a fairly progressive Democrat, Williams-Cox has an outside chance of unseating him in the primary. She wrote herself a $50,000 check, which, although it did not eliminate the gap between her cash on hand and Williams's, certainly narrowed it. Williams clearly has the edge, but it would be premature to count Williams-Cox out.
Rating—LIKELY WILLIAMS.
District 7
2012 results—52% Obama, 47% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent State Representative Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda is, like Williams, running for her final term in the legislature. She faces a challenge from Arnitta Grice-Walker in the Democratic primary, which is open because no other candidates filed. This is, nominally, a swing district, though state-level Democrats do much better here than presidential candidates, and Rehwinkel Vasilinda could theoretically be at risk to Republicans looking to defeat her in an open primary. However, Grice-Walker is something of an enigma of a candidate. She does not have a campaign website, and when they attempted to interview her, the Tallahassee Democrat was unable to reach her. Consider Rehwinkel Vasilinda the clear favorite in this race, but with an open primary, anything is possible.
Rating—LIKELY REHWINKEL VASILINDA.
District 15
2012 results—43% Obama, 56% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—It is a bit unusual in Florida for an incumbent to voluntarily not seek re-election, but that is exactly what Republican State Representative Daniel Davis did, so that he could work full-time as the President of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce. In the Republican primary to replace him, banker Jay Fant faces off against assistant state attorney Paul Renner. Both Fant and Renner are interesting candidates with good chances of winning. Fant has a long family history in the district, as his grandfather founded First Guaranty Bank, which employed him as its Chairman until it was shut down by the FDIC in 2012. Renner is a Navy veteran who served in Operation Desert Storm, came back home, and went to law school. He has strong connections to the local Republican establishment, as he is the General Counsel to the Duval County Republican Party, worked as a lawyer for the McCain campaign, and was a part of the legal team that challenged the "Fair Districts" constitutional amendments in court. Both Fant and Renner have been excellent fundraisers, with Fant raising over $200,000 and Renner raising nearly the same. It would be conceivable for either candidate to emerge victorious, so I am hesitant to predict a winner at this point. My gut tells me that Renner, with his endorsements from local elected officials and his deep connections to the Party, will emerge victorious over Fant, but my brain tells me that the only public poll of this race put Fant well-ahead of Renner.
Rating—TOSSUP.
District 15
2012 results—43% Obama, 56% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—
Incumbent Republican State Representative Charles McBurney is being challenged in the primary by Chris Oliver, and he has no chance at losing re-election.
Rating—SAFE RENUART.
District 28
2012 results—46% Obama, 53% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Representative Jason Brodeur is being challenged in the primary by Kathryn Townsend, an employee in the Seminole County Sheriff's office. Brodeur is well-connected, currently serving as the president of the local chamber of commerce, and was the Chairman of the Seminole County Republican Party before he was elected in 2010. However, he has been implicated in the Expressway Authority scandal, and in 2012, faced a serious primary challenger in former Winter Springs Mayor John Bush. Townsend is nowhere near as strong a challenger as Bush was, and Bush still lost to Brodeur in a landslide. However, if discontent with Brodeur over the Expressway Authority bubbles over, Townsend has an outside chance. Disclosure: This is my State House district.
Rating—LIKELY BRODEUR.
District 30
2012 results—50% Obama, 49% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—This district will be one of the most competitive ones in the general election this year, as freshman Democratic State Representative Karen Castor Dentel runs for re-election. She is opposed by Bob Cortes, a Longwood City Councilman, and Scott Sturgill, a member of the Seminole County Soil and Water Conservation District. Cortes has locked up a bit more support than Sturgill has from elected officials in the area, and has raised more money than Sturgill has, too. However, the only public poll of this race had Sturgill with a narrow lead over Cortes, albeit with a majority of respondents undecided. Cortes is probably a stronger challenger, and he has won the endorsement of the Sentinel, so I am personally rooting for Sturgill, as I feel as though he will be a weaker opponent for Karen.
Rating—LEAN CORTES.
District 31
2012 results—41% Obama, 58% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—This is a very difficult primary to handicap. For one, it is an open primary, as only Republicans filed to run, and while it is a solidly conservative district, 41% of the district's residents still voted for Obama, so there are a number of Democrats who will be voting in this election. There are five Republicans running, and I will give a brief overview of each of them. Randy Glisson is the son of former Democratic State Senator Jim Glisson and currently workes as a chiropractor and businessman in Eustis. He's raised the most money by far. Terri Seefeldt is a businesswoman and a Committeewoman on the Orange County Executive Committee. She's managed to rack up some institutional support, including former Congresswoman Sandy Adams and outgoing State Representative Bryan Nelson. Jennifer Sullivan is a "youth development leader" (whatever that means) and is the daughter of Tea Party organizer Patricia Sullivan, who ran for Congress unsuccessfully in 2010. Belita Grassel is the former President of the Lake County Education Association, and has built up a (small) reputation as a strong critic of Governor Scott, which I cannot imagine will play well in this primary with Republican voters. She has, however, managed to win the support of the Sentinel, and appears to be the most moderate candidate running. It's possible that she would be able to consolidate support from the registered Democrats in the district to win a narrow plurality. Joseph Stephens is a mortgage fraud investigator with no support. The only public poll of the race confirms what I already knew, that there was no clear frontrunner and any candidate could, theoretically win it. If only Republicans were voting, either Glisson or Seefeldt would be the clear frontrunners, with Sullivan as a potential wild card. However, as mentioned previously, this is an open primary, so I would hazard that it may be registered Democrats in the district who actually end up deciding the winner here.
Rating—TOSSUP.
District 36
2012 results—52% Obama, 47% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—In the Republican primary to take on freshman Democratic State Representative Amanda Murphy, who was elected in a 2013 special election, attorney James Mathieu, who is also the Chairman of the Pasco County Republican Party, faces off against businessman Chris Gregg. Neither candidate has raised very much, which is surprising, given the fact that this district will likely be seriously contested in the general election. I would cautiously give the edge to Gregg, as he appears to have a better-run campaign, as seen through the fact that he has raised three times the amount that Mathieu has and the fact that he has received a bit more institutional support, but I would not be surprised at all if Mathieu won. If nothing else, Mathieu has won the endorsement of the Tampa Bay Times.
Rating—LEAN GREGG.
District 40
2012 results—46% Obama, 53% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—In the race to replace term-limited State Representative Seth McKeel, quite a battle is occurring between attorney John Hugh Shannon and Colleen Burton. I have been following journalist Jason Garcia's investigation of the race on Twitter, and from what he writes, it is a proxy war between forces supporting Chris Sprowls and those supporting Eric Eisnaugle in the bid for Speaker of the Florida House in...2020. Sprowls is running as a Republican for the State House in District 65 against incumbent State Representative Carl Zimmermann, and Eisnaugle was elected to the House in a special election. Both are likely candidates for Speaker, and Sprowls's allies are supporting Shannon, while Eisnaugle's allies are supporting Burton. It's a nasty race. I would probably give the edge to Shannon, however. He is a well-known attorney in the Lakeland area, has raised more money, and, according to the only public poll, is leading Burton. However, I will not be surprised if Burton pulls through.
Rating—LEAN SHANNON.
District 42
2012 results—50% Obama, 49% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—To take on freshman Republican State Representative Mike La Rosa, Democrats can choose among attorney Pete Placencia, nonprofit CFO Chad Carnell, or DCF consultant Zulma Velez-Estrada. I would tentatively give the edge to Placencia. He is the best fundraiser of the group and appears to have the right profile to be a serious candidate for this seat that Democrats might make a play for in the general election. However, Carnell is also a solid candidate and could be seriously competitive if his fundraising starts picking up. For now, Placencia is the frontrunner, but anything can happen.
Rating—LEAN PLACENCIA.
District 43
2012 results—74% Obama, 25% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—State Representative Ricardo Rangel, who did not have the most traditional profile before he was elected to the House in 2012, is being challenged by retired correctional officer John Cortes in this solidly Democratic district. Rangel is coming off a relatively successful first term in Tallahassee, and is heavily favored for re-election. There is likely nothing to see here.
Rating—LIKELY RANGEL.
District 44
2012 results—46% Obama, 53% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent State Representative Eric Eisnaugle was elected to the State House in 2014 following the resignation of the previous State Representative. However, this is not Eisnaugle's first rodeo. He previously served in the State House from 2008 to 2012, and was already running for this seat in this election, as the previous incumbent was term-limited. He is being challenged in the Republican primary by Stephen Facella, but do not expect Facella's challenge to go anywhere. Eisnaugle is also, as mentioned above, a serious contender for Speaker in 2020, and he has powerful friends in Disney.
Rating—SAFE EISNAUGLE.
District 47
2012 results—50% Obama, 49% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—In the race to take on freshman Democratic State Representative Linda Stewart, Republicans can choose between Mike Miller and Mo Pearson. Miller is the Director of Marketing at Rollins College, located in Winter Park in the district, and Pearson is a contractor closely tied to the Expressway Authority. Though Pearson has raised more than Miller has, I give Miller the edge. The only public poll of the race gave Miller a wide lead over Pearson, 36-6%, and Miller has the background that lends itself to a wider base of support than does Pearson. For what it's worth, however, Pearson was endorsed by the Sentinel. Either way, expect the general election to be a barnburner, as Obama only won this district by about 500 votes over Romney.
Rating—LEAN MILLER.
District 49
2012 results—60% Obama, 39% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Democratic State Representative Joe Saunders, one of the first two openly gay legislators in the state, is running for re-election. In the Republican primary, Rene Plascencia, who ran for the seat in 2012 but lost in the primary, faces accountant Ed Rodriguez, who made some waves with this...creative advertisement. Plascencia's fundraising has been solid, and another contender for the nomination actually dropped out to run his campaign. Expect Plascencia to win the primary and lose the general.
Rating—LIKELY PLASCENCIA.
District 50
2012 results—46% Obama, 53% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Republican State Representative Tom Goodson is running for re-election, and he is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party activist George Collins. There's one catch: because no one else filed, the primary is open, and Democrats can vote in this one. For that reason alone, I would hazard a guess that Goodson has the edge. Though he is conservative, he has carved out a narrow niche for himself as someone occasionally willing to buck the leadership. He's currently under attack from Collins for owning a lakefront house outside the district on which he claimed a homestead exemption, but I doubt that too many voters will base their votes on that.
Rating—LIKELY GOODSON.
District 53
2012 results—49% Obama, 50% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Republican State Representative John Tobia is being challenged in the primary by Tim Street, a local businessman. Though Tobia has had his share of ethical troubles, primary challengers, and close general elections, he always manages to pull through, and do not expect this year to be any different.
Rating—SAFE TOBIA.
District 61
2012 results—84% Obama, 15% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—In the race to replace term-limited State Representative Betty Reed, a Democratic primary will all but annoint her successor in this solidly liberal district based in Tampa. The frontrunner is Sean Shaw, who is the state's former Insurance Consumer Advocate and the son of a former Supreme Court Justice. He has the support of both Charlie Crist and Alex Sink, and has raised good money. However, he faces carpetbagging charges, as eight years ago, he ran for a State House seat in Tallahassee. His chief opponent is Ed Narain, a community activist, although Sharon Carter and Tatiana Denson are also running. Shaw started out as the clear favorite, and Narain as the clear underdog, but as the campaign has gotten underway, the momentum is probably with Narain. Narain has earned the endorsement of the woman he hopes to replace, Betty Reed, as well as the Tampa Bay Times. He has also received support from business organizations and labor unions, an unusual combination. He is attempting to make an issue of Shaw's carpetbagging, and he might very well pull it off. To the best of my knowledge, no public polling has been conducted of this race, and I have not seen any internal polls either.
Ultimately, I think that the direction of this race is clearly moving towards Narain, but the question in my mind is whether he will be able to push past Shaw. Shaw is still better funded and is running a serious, professional campaign, and in a low-turnout election, I think that Shaw's advertising money will be enough to get him over the top into a narrow plurality win. However, I would not be surprised at all if Narain managed to win.
Rating—LEAN SHAW.
District 64
2012 results—43% Obama, 56% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Republican State Representative James Grant is running for re-election, and is being opposed in the primary by Miriam Steinberg. This election is beginning to resemble a clusterfuck. The write-in candidate was removed from the ballot by a judge, and because there were two candidates from the same party on the ballot, the primary was opened, and the judge moved the primary election to the general election. There's a summary of what happened here, but this is an incredibly challenging instance: the judge issued his ruling after absentee ballots were mailed out, so some voters have already voted in the contest. According to the judge, their votes will be invalidated and they will be instructed to vote for this contest again during the general election. I'm mostly including this because it is theoretically possible that the Supreme Court could step in and change something.
Rating—TO BE DETERMINED.
District 65
2012 results—45% Obama, 54% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Representative Carl Zimmermann's win in 2012 was a bit of a surprise, as this is a conservative-leaning district with a long history of voting for Republicans. He's a significant underdog in his re-election campaign, regardless of whether he faces Chris Sprowls or Debbie Faulkner. Sprowls is a prosecutor who has raised a massive amount of money and wants to be Speaker in 2020 (talk about planning ahead) and Faulkner is an attorney in private practice. Faulkner is a formidable and competent candidate in her own right, but against Sprowls, she does not stand a chance. Expect Sprowls to win the primary and to defeat Zimmermann in the general.
Rating—LIKELY SPROWLS.
District 67
2012 results—52% Obama, 47% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Shawna Vercher, a radio talk show host and journalist, is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in this liberal-leaning district. She faces nominal challenges from Stephen Sarnoff, a union president and Thomas Ryan, an ice cream plant employee, but do not expect her to fall to either of them. While Sarnoff seems like an adequate candidate in his own right, Vercher is our best chance of winning this hotly competitive district. Though I do not think that newspaper endorsements sway the minds of too many voters, it is interesting to me that the Tampa Bay Times endorses Sarnoff over Vercher. Is it possible for Sarnoff to pull off an upset against a top recruit for Democrats? It is possible, but I think that it would be unlikely.
Rating—LIKELY VERCHER.
Republican Primary Analysis—The Republican frontrunner for the seat, Chris Latvala, like Vercher, faces nominal primary opposition. If his name is familiar to you, it's because his father is respected State Senator Jack Latvala, and his name is familiar to Pinellas County voters as well. Even if Jack were not his father, however, Chris would be a serious candidate. He worked as a legislative aide to term-limited State Representative Ed Hooper from 2006 to 2009 and then as the political director for the Pinellas County Republican Party. Latvala is an easy primary winner in this district, and is favored in the general election as well.
Rating—SAFE LATVALA.
District 68
2012 results—54% Obama, 45% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—To challenge Democratic State Representative Dwight Dudley, two relatively well-known Republicans are running in the primary. The first, Bill Young, the son of the late former Congressman, is the clear favorite in the primary, because his opponent, Joshua Black, is well-known for all the wrong reasons. Black publicly called for the hanging of President Obama and was paid a visit by the Secret Service. Classy. If he were running in a primary in a place like Kentucky or Oklahoma, that might be appealing in a Republican primary, but in suburban St. Petersburg, not so much. But still, I want Dudley to win re-election, so if Black could pull out a win, that would be great.
Rating—SAFE YOUNG.
District 74
2012 results—43% Obama, 56% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—Oh, dear, this is another proxy battle for Speaker in 2020. The forces supporting Sprowls are propping up attorney Richard DeNapoli, while the forces supporting Eisnaugle are propping up surgeon Julio Gonzalez. Both DeNapoli and Gonzalez are solid candidates with great fundraising, but the edge is clearly with DeNapoli. For one, Gonzalez kind of supported what Sarah Palin accused Obamacare of putting into the health care system--"death panels." Okay, not really, but he wrote a book where he suggested that the billions of dollars spent "to care for patients with limited hopes in their final year of life" is "certainly worthy of study." Naturally, DeNapoli and his allies seized on the discovery, and that, combined with a campaign contribution to Debbie Wasserman Schulz that Gonzalez made (that he laughably defended on the basis that he used it as a way of getting to talk to her about her support for Obamacare...despite the fact that the contribution was made in 2008) have allowed them to brand Gonzalez as a "liberal." Gonzalez has countered with a television advertisement recorded by Marco Rubio, who, I imagine, is quite popular with the Republican base in the area. The result? Two polls, one of them public and one of them an internal poll for DeNapoli, showing DeNapoli comfortably ahead of Gonzalez.
Rating—LEAN DeNAPOLI.
District 77
2012 results—42% Obama, 58% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—When incumbent Republican State Representative Dane Eagle was arrested for a DUI earlier this year, it initially seemed like his chances of winning renomination were squashed. Then three Republicans jumped in to challenge him, and now it appears likely that Eagle will be able to escape with at least a plurality in the primary. Though it is possible that one of his challengers (if it happens, either Terry Cramer or Jim Roach) could beat him, it is certainly not likely with so many opponents to split the anti-Eagle vote.
Rating—LIKELY EAGLE.
District 81
2012 results—60% Obama, 39% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Representative Kevin Rader, who is serving in his second term in the legislative, is running for a third term (and a second consecutive term). He is being challenged in the Democratic primary by Joshua Izaak, who is explicitly challenging Rader on the basis of his support for the insurance industry. Because no other candidates filed to run, this primary is open, which always adds a wrinkle into the predictability of such a race. However, Rader has a wide berth of support, including an endorsement from the Palm Beach Post, and Izaak has not raised much.
Rating—LIKELY RADER.
District 94
2012 results—84% Obama, 16% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Representative Perry Thurston is term-limited and is running for Attorney General, creating an open seat. To replace him, Levoyd Williams, a Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner since 1998, and Bobby DuBose, a Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner since 2009, are running to replace him. Anthony Man of the Sun-Sentinel describes the differenc between the two men as primarily geographic and generational, not ideological—Williams is in his late sixties and DuBose is in his early forties. I would narrowly give the edge to DuBose, but there are few differences between the candidates, and as a result, it is going to come down to the fact that DuBose has been elected in Fort Lauderdale, a much larger municipality than Lauderdale Lakes. However, Williams has served longer than DuBose has, so it is entirely possible that Williams has built up some kind of local following that Dubose has not had the time to. Either way, the edge goes to DuBose. As a side-note, the primary is open, but in an 84% Obama district, my guess is that the impact will be minimal.
Rating—LEAN DuBOSE.
District 96
2012 results—61% Obama, 38% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Some of you might remember the name of Broward County Commissioner Kristin Jacobs, who ran for Congress in 2012, but was defeated in the Democratic primary by now-Congresswoman Lois Frankel. She's back, and this time, she's running for the State House in District 93, which is being vacated by State Representative Jim Waldman. It’s a safely Democratic district, and no Republican even bothered filing. She faces off against former State Representative Steve Perman. The advantage in this election is clearly with Jacobs, and she's my personal favorite, too. Perman borders on being a perennial candidate—he first ran for the State House in 2006, but lost in the Democratic primary to the incumbent State Representative. He ran again in 2008, and lost in the Democratic primary again. He ran in 2010 and was the only candidate, so he won automatically. In 2012, he ran for re-election in District 81, but lost to former State Representative Kevin Rader (for the second time, I might add) in the Democratic primary. He's back, and he’s running in District 96. Perman, however, has managed to rack up some institutional support in the form of endorsements from Frankel, Congressman Alcee Hastings, and a slew of State Senators and State Representatives, and he has the advantage of actually living in the district, while Jacobs does not. Jacobs is still my favored candidate (due to the fact that Perman accumulated a bit of a corporatist record in the legislature, and was actually endorsed for re-election in 2012 by Associated Industries of Florida, a free enterprise, pro-business, anti-regulation organized headed up by former Congressman Tom Feeney, though they admittedly have endorsed Jacobs this time) and the favorite to win. Jacobs has also raised much more money than has Perman, even from Tallahassee insiders, despite the fact that Perman has actually served in Tallahassee. That suggests to me that she is viewed as the favorite.
Rating—LIKELY JACOBS.
District 100
2012 results—58% Obama, 42% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—In the race to replace term-limited Democratic State Representative Joe Gibbons, three Democrats are running: John Paul Alvarez, who was the 2012 Democratic nominee for the State House against John Tobia in a district four counties to the north of this district; Joseph Geller, the former Mayor of North Bay Village and the younger brother of former State Senator Steven Geller; and Ben Sorensen, a former teacher, business owner, and pastor. Though Alvarez would make history as the first LGBT legislator of color in Florida, the advantage is clearly with Geller. He has racked up most of the institutional support, including an endorsement from the Miami Herald, and has significantly outraised his opponents thanks to his brother's connections.
Rating—LIKELY GELLER.
District 107
2012 results—86% Obama, 14% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Incumbent Democratic State Representative Barbara Watson has always had really close elections during her tenure in the legislature, but she has always managed to squeak by. This year, she is being challenged by a number of candidates, including Michael Joseph and Dominique Simon, but the biggest name in the contest is former State Representative and borderline perennial candidate Phillip Brutus, though Joseph raised more money than he did. Either way, Watson remains the narrow favorite over her opponents, largely because the anti-incumbent vote is splintered. It is entirely likely that she will emerge victorious with a plurality, as it is difficult for me to visualize how any of her opponents can consolidate enough support to overtake her. As such, the Miami Herald has endorsed her for re-election.
Rating—LEAN WATSON.
District 100
2012 results—90% Obama, 10% Romney
Democratic Primary Analysis—Unfortunately, Democratic State Representative Daphne Campbell will likely easily win renomination. I say "unfortunately" because Campbell is my least favorite Democrat in the state. She ran a chain of nursing homes that the Florida Department of Elder Affairs recommended be shut because its residents were sweltering without air-conditioning. She's been under investigation by the IRS for Medicaid fraud. She voted in favor of anti-abortion legislation (all of it) and quoted the Bible to do so. After her husband got tickets from red light cameras, she sponsored legislation to do away with them. She is a repugnant figure and she does not represent my Democratic Party. She's facing Taj Echoles and Michael Hepburn in the primary, and the Miami Herald, which blasted Campbell for the fact that she "is often in the news for all the wrong reasons," endorsed Echoles. I would be legitimately surprised, however, if either Echoles or Hepburn were able to garner the necessary support to oust her. The clown car is full, and Campbell will likely escape with a majority of the vote, or a solid plurality. I hope that in 2016, however, that we are able to defeat her.
Rating—LIKELY CAMPBELL.
District 111
2012 results—48% Obama, 52% Romney
Republican Primary Analysis—In the race to replace term-limited Republican State Representative Eddy Gonzalez, two Republicans are running: Bryan Avila, the Vice-Chairman of the Miami-Dade County Republican Party, and Alexander Anthony, who lost a Miami Springs City Council race recently. Avila is the clear favorite in the primary, and though this district is quickly trending away from Republicans, will likely win the general election as well.
Rating—SAFE AVILA.
3:29 PM PT: This was pleasant to see: