Here's a poll that makes me raise my eyebrows:
http://www.wmur.com/...
A new poll shows that a possible race between U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Republican Scott Brown is a tossup.
Last month, Brown trailed Shaheen in the WMUR Granite State Poll by 12 points. The new poll shows Shaheen leading brown by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent.
"I feel very good because when I'm going out and about into people's businesses, holding town halls -- town halls are an important thing -- and conveying my thoughts about being an independent voice for New Hampshire, it's resonating," Brown said.
"This will go down as one of the most important days of this New Hampshire U.S. Senate contest," said James Pindell of WMUR Political Scoop. "For much of the year, this race appeared to be slipping away from Scott Brown, but now he's back and within the margin of error." - WMUR, 8/21/14
Why does this poll show a closer race? Some people claim that it's because Obama is dragging down Shaheen:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/...
Pollster Andrew E. Smith, a political science professor at UNH, said he thought the shift was a result of national trends and had little to do with the candidates’ campaigns.
“I think it’s an Obama drag,” he said. The new WMUR poll found only 38 percent of New Hampshire adults approve of the way President Obama was handling his job, a 7 percentage point drop from about a month earlier, while 55 percent disapprove.
“Neither Brown nor Shaheen had any control of that; they’re just at the mercy of what’s happening nationally,” Smith said.
Still, both campaigns have been working to convey their message to voters. In fact, one of Brown’s campaign themes is tying Shaheen to Obama. Shaheen has sought to portray herself as someone who looks out for New Hampshire first.
“Despite more than $3.5 million in dishonest and negative attacks . . . Jeanne Shaheen is still leading all of her potential opponents because Granite State voters know and trust her,” said Mike Vlacich, Shaheen’s campaign manager, in a statement. - Boston Globe, 8/22/14
But what should be called into question is the polling's method here. The poll of 827 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by cellphone and landline by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Aug. 7 through 17 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Ten days is a long time to poll that sample of people. Normally it takes three days of polling to get an accurate account of how the voters are feeling. I don't doubt that race may have tightened a little bit but not this tight. Of course Brown and Republicans will be touting these poll numbers:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
After launching his campaign to heavy fanfare, Brown has appeared to fade in recent months, with numerous surveys showing Shaheen up comfortably. While it's just one survey, from a pollster that has shown swings before, the new numbers could draw fresh attention from donors and strategists to a contest that has fallen off the national radar a bit in recent weeks.
"We've been ready for a competitive race since day one and we are running the kind of grassroots campaign that New Hampshire deserves," Shaheen campaign Manager Mike Vlacich said in a statement.
Brown spokeswoman Elizabeth Guyton said, "The polls are going to go up and down, but Scott Brown will continue working hard, holding town hall meetings, taking his message directly to the people and earning every vote." - Washington Post, 8/21/14
Shaheen hasn't taken Brown for granted as an opponent and his been hitting hard. Tom Steyer is also taking Brown seriously:
http://thehill.com/...
NextGen Climate released an advertising campaign Thursday aimed at linking New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown to billionaire conservatives Charles and David Koch and the oil industry.
NextGen, backed by billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, takes advantage of Brown’s former position representing Massachusetts in the Senate to paint him as coming from out of state. It is the first campaign from the group in the New Hampshire race.
“Out-of-state oilmen like the Koch brothers are spending millions to elect out-of-state politician Scott Brown to our Senate seat,” the voiceover says in the TV ad. “Brown voted to protect tax giveaways for big oil, which is polluting our air and water.”
The campaign also includes radio and Web ads.
All the ads refer to the state’s maple syrup industry, contrasting tapping into maple trees with drilling for oil. - The Hill, 8/21/14
We can and will defeat Brown, we just have to make sure our base gets out to the polls. Click here to donate and get involved with Shaheen's campaign:
http://jeanneshaheen.org/