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Comment Preferences

  •  Mr. President, there are too many states nowadays (14+ / 0-)

    Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

    Senior Elections Writer, Daily Kos. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident). Formerly known as Darth Jeff.

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 01:57:56 AM PDT

  •  So ... (6+ / 0-)

    Who's been doing nothing but watching FXX's Simpsons marathon for the last few days?

    My DVR is on overload.

    "The City of New York vs. Homer Simpson" drops at 2:00 am cst on Monday morning.

    Politics can wait. And for those who disagree, "Sideshow Bob Roberts" is at 2:30 pm cst on Saturday.

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:15:02 AM PDT

  •  I am interested in the Teachout - Cuomo primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    anshmishra, gabjoh

    Zephyr Teachout is challenging the Governor of New York in a Democratic Party primary election. The current DINO democratic governor of New York has earned the name Governor 1% through his actions during the first term. I posted an announcement from her in a diary this morning. I would like to see greater interest in this primary on the GOS.

  •  HoosierD42's Weekend Court Report™ (11+ / 0-)

    Another mini-update, Congress is still in recess so there's only action on two of the available three fronts:

    Nominations

    • Haywood Stirling Gilliam, Jr. to the Northern District of California. President Obama has announced the "intention to nominate" Gilliam but has not yet formally submitted his name to the Senate. Gilliam received his B.A. magna cum laude from Yale and his J.D. from Stanford Law. He clerked for a Carter-appointed judge on the N.D. Cal., then worked at a private law firm from 1995-1998. From 1999-2006, he was an AUSA for the N.D. Cal., serving as Chief of the Securities Fraud Division of that office from 04-06. Since 2006 he returned to the private sector, focusing on white collar "defense and investigations". He will be nominated to replace Claudia Ann Wilken, a Clinton appointee who is the current Chief Judge of the Court, and is assuming senior status in December.

    Vacancies

    • Samuel Grayson Wilson retired from the bench of the Western District of Virginia on July 31. He was a G.H.W. Bush appointee.
    • Audrey B. Collins retired from the bench of the Central District of California on August 1. She was a Clinton appointee.

    That's all for this week!

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:01:01 AM PDT

    •  Unfortunate this is the best we could do (0+ / 0-)

      in Northern California.  

      Since 2006 he returned to the private sector, focusing on white collar "defense and investigations".
      I would hope that we could find someone who would choose to do something other than defend corporate criminals for a judicial position in the most liberal area in the country.  

      If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

      by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:59:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We was also the Chief (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, MichaelNY

        of the Securities Fraud Division of the U.S. Attorney's office in N.D. Cal. for 7 years. I doubt he's horrible.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:02:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's not horrible by any means (0+ / 0-)

          and he'd be fine for most areas of the country.  But we could and should have gotten someone far more aggressively liberal in Northern California.  A good choice for that district would be one who gets at least 45 no votes for being too liberal.

          If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

          by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:12:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Jesus Christ, what kind of judge do you want? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            anshmishra

            A liberal Antonin Scalia?  We're better than that.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 04:55:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes (9+ / 0-)

              Justices and judges like William Douglas, Thurgood Marshall, or Stephen Reinhardt would be great.  Also I would like to see more judges who have careers in civil rights, civil liberties, progressive interest groups, public defenders; and far fewer who are criminal prosecutors and corporate attorneys.  Elizabeth Warren has rightly pushed this recently.

              Obama has finally appointed a few of them; Nina Pillard, Pamela Harris, and David Barron are on the appellate courtsand would likely be judges in this mold.  All of them have argued strongly for pushing the envelope on judicial matters.

              Your tone is really uncalled for, by the way.  

              If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

              by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:06:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Perhaps I was confused (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                propjoe, anshmishra

                By a liberal Antonin Scalia I don't mean a Ginsburg type.  While I would often disagree with such a judge I would respect them.  I meant someone so blatantly partisan that they would get 45 votes against for a lower court nomination.

                And anybody who wants a judge who, like Scalia, is partisan rather than ruling based on their interpretations of the laws and Constitution...well that's just not the way our system has ever been or should be.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:56:52 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Honestly I think that's a bit naive (4+ / 0-)

                  There is a fiction of judicial objectivity that is frankly not deserved. Although it applies for politically uncontroversial cases you could practically put a (D) or an (R) next to the justices names for politically controversial cases. The only real constraint against nakedly partisan rulings is not judicial objectivity but rather the fear that judicial activism will undermine the legitimacy of the judicial branch.

                  28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 06:59:42 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  With this GOP bunch (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, ehstronghold

                  any truly liberal judge would get 45 votes against.  If someone has any hint of strong liberalism, or has a background litigating for liberal causes, the GOP will pretty much vote against him/her as a block.  My preferred judge would go well past Ginsburg, however; they would be less wedded to judicial restraint and/or precedent when the Constitution and fundamental rights are violated.

                  I certainly don't want a partisan judge who is hypocritical (that would rule one way when it helps liberal causes and the other when it helps conservative causes.)  Any judge on either side who would do that shouldn't be on the bench, period.

                  But honestly, I never saw Scalia as a pure partisan (anymore than the rest of the conservative block), just largely as far-right judicial activist.  He's sided with the liberal side occasionally on flag burning, as well as Fourth and Sixth Amendment issues.

                  If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                  by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:21:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He also recently saved us on a union ruling /nt (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    USA629, MichaelNY
                    •  Probably (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I think both Scalia and Roberts were part of that.  But that only proves my point, if Scalia were a just a partisan hack, he would have ignored his previous ruling upholding union dues.

                      The worst partisan on the Court is Alito, IMO.  I think he really looks for opportunities to do liberals harm and support the GOP.  Remember his stupid head shake at Obama's state of the Union.

                      If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                      by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:07:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Yep (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        USA629, MichaelNY, Skaje, ehstronghold

                        It's true across the judiciary branch. The more recent picks from GWB are partisan as hell, while the older folks appointed by Reagan or Bush Sr. are usually more open on things like gay marriage and Obamacare. Of course, that's not an absolute rule - just look who saved us on Obamacare in the 2012 ruling: Mr. Roberts himself, a Shrub appointee.

                        •  Only somewhat so (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, Skaje

                          At the appeals Court level, Judge Holmes (GWB appointee, 10th C) and Judge Floyd (GWB to SC district Ct, Obama to the 4th C) both struck down anti-SSM bans, while GHWB appointees Judges Niemeyer (4th C) and Kelly (10th C) upheld them.  But SSM isn't really a good issue here due to the age factor.

                          But on other issues, I think the GWB appeals court judges are outright partisan.  The district court ones not so much because often they have to be approved by the senators.

                          If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                          by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 09:13:58 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Justice Thomas is pretty awful, too (0+ / 0-)

                          The worst thing about Thomas is what a useless waste of space it is. He contributes nothing to cases -- not in oral arguments, not in written opinions -- other than an automatic +1 to Justice Scalia.

                          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:38:00 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I wish this'd go away (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv

                            Believe him if you wish, but one of the reasons why Thomas doesn't speak in open court is as a result of early racism and bullying over his speaking Gullah as a child. At least, so he claims - and given that he was raised in Georgia in the 50s and 60s, I believe him.

                            I'm genuinely uncomfortable calling the only black justice on the Supreme Court, and only the second one in its entire history, a "useless waste of space".

                          •  I'm not uncomfortable at all (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            fearlessfred14

                            he is far worse than "useless waste of space".  Having that seat occupied by a car crash dummy would be an infinite improvement

                            Honestly, this man is a disgrace to humanity.  This is someone who understood and personally experienced the harm caused by racism, and then turns around and tries to cause those people more harm out of personal spite and hatred. Well there are no words that can express how evil of a man this is.    

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 05:53:04 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Oh come on (4+ / 0-)

                            I'm not saying he's a useless waste of space because he's black. I'm saying he's a useless waste of space because he's a useless waste of space. The only thing he contributes on the Court is consistently voting the wrong way and handing down the occasional terrifyingly retrograde written opinion. He doesn't speak during oral arguments -- if that's because he's afraid of public speaking, that's sad, but it doesn't make him any more of a contributor to the business of the Court -- and his rulings are practically never on the side of the angels.

                            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 10:31:17 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  He's not an automatic +1 to Scalia (4+ / 0-)

                            he's far worse than that.  There have been several cases where Thomas has been the lone voice (even Scalia has a bout of reason), and his opinions have breathtakingly chilling its implications.  

                            Thomas isn't a useless waste of space, he's far far worse than that.  I think Thomas has had a long time beef with the liberal civil rights movement, and he's trying as hard as he can to exact revenge.  That's the basic message I got from his book.

                            A truly scary and evil individual.  

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 05:58:08 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                •  Ginsburg isn't liberal. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  USA629, wwmiv

                  You have to look to Justices like Douglas and Marshall to find truly liberal judges. Ginsburg is a liberal person most likely, but a very small "c" conservative jurist.

                  26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                  by HoosierD42 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:13:49 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  How do you define liberal? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:49:33 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  When it comes to judges, all that matters (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      USA629, wwmiv

                      Is how they rule. Ginsburg has stated a clear preference for small, conservative rulings. Of course it matters what her personal opinions are, but it's less important than a) their views of the law and b) tendency towards broad or narrow rulings.

                      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                      by HoosierD42 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:01:43 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You're using "liberal" and "conservative" (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Skaje

                        in a different way than I've seen. I don't think it's right to equate "liberal" with "broad" and "conservative" with "narrow," and don't forget that rulings are often tactical and based on what a justice has to do to get 5 votes.

                        I would definitely agree that Ginsburg is not as liberal as Thurgood Marshall, Brennan, and Douglas, and it bothers me a lot that there's no-one on the Court who's that liberal, whereas there are radical right-wingers, but she's pretty liberal, overall.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:31:34 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You have to have two axes on the scale (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          HoosierD42

                          There's political liberalism and conservatism, which is your standard definition; Republicans are generally political conservatives and Democrats are political liberals. The second axis in the case of judges is between restraint at one end and activism at another; the former is sometimes called judicial conservatism. A restrained judge seeks to make rulings that defer to the legislature as much as possible, while an activist judge is more comfortable making more sweeping rulings. You can definitely have judges who are politically liberal but judicially conservative; a particularly notable case of this would be Felix Frankfurter, who was a partisan Democrat. An example of Frankfurter's judicial philosophy can be seen in his dissent in Baker v. Carr, in which he urged the Supreme Court to stay out of political questions like redistricting.

                          •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

                            And just like politics, some peoples' views on one axis can override the other.  A Democratic presidential candidate who would appoint strongly activist judges would at least make me think about voting Republican because of how important that issue is to me.

                            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                            by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:10:42 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well you are going (0+ / 0-)

                            to get strongly activist judges from both parties from now on.  That's the consequence of the nuclear option.  It really started a long time ago, but the nuclear option threat in 2005 was the last straw.

                            If the Senate is controlled by the opposing party, I don't know what happens.  I think an outright blocking action for Supreme Court nominees is far more likely than compromise.  The GOP would probably even block a center-left judge who is somewhat on the side of judicial restraint.

                            The only real solution to this long term is term limits for judges and a 18 year staggered term for Supreme Court justices.  That way, strongly activist decisions on either side that are hated by the public can be easily reversed by a future Supreme Court.

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 06:41:57 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  No, ending the filibuster (0+ / 0-)

                            and other delaying tactics is also a solution, and one that I believe would be employed if the Republicans just tried to block every appointment to the Supreme Court while being in the minority in the Senate.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 07:35:45 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Not really (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I have no doubt that the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees  will be gone if the Dems hold the Senate (or the GOP wins the Presidency and Senate in 2017) and the minority tries to block confirmations.

                            But what will you do if the GOP gets the Senate in 2014, and then Kennedy retires sometime in 2015 or 2016?  The GOP will simply block until the next Presidential election.  (They have to, their base will kill them if they don't.)

                            But that only buttresses my point, if both the White House and Senate are controlled by both parties, you will get a highly ideological judge.  If they are divided, nobody will be confirmed.  That's not a great recipe.  

                            I support strongly liberal judges and justices right now because there simply are a dearth of them in the courts (so liberal arguments aren't even being made.).  But that doesn't mean that having 7 or 8 Douglas or Marshalls on the Supreme Court for an extended period of time with no reasonable recourse for the opposition is good for the country.

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 08:11:20 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  We've been getting strongly activist judges from (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            the right and moderate centrists from the left for decades.  I'm not sure the nuclear option changes that.  

                            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                            by benamery21 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 09:40:37 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Nuclear option has already changed the latter (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Three judges (Nina Pillard, David Barron, Pamela Harris) who are at least a couple shades to the left of the current center-left Supreme Court justices have been confirmed to the appeals court this year.  All three of these judges have argued for a far more activist progressive judicial agenda, with Pamela Harris having written that she thought that the Warren Court was too conservative, particularly on criminal procedure issues.

                            All three of them would have been filibustered and rejected before the nuclear option.

                               

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 06:35:38 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Frankfurter was definitely a judicial conservative (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            USA629

                            I don't see that with Ginsberg.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:35:35 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Ginsburg isn't as conservative (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            as Frankfurter.  But I think her perceived liberalism is due to how far-right this court is.  Ginsburg looks a lot more liberal than she is because she is playing defense all the time.  

                            If say Kennedy and Scalia were replaced with Nina Pillard and Pamela Harris, you would see a lot more evidence of Ginsburg (and Breyer's) taste for judicial restraint.

                            I suspect you saw one example of her support for restraint in the SSM cases in 2013.  My suspicion is that Kennedy and Sotomayor were ready to deliver a broad ruling striking down SSM bans around the country, and Ginsburg and Breyer convinced Kagan to join them in dismissing the case based on standing.  
                            (As an aside, I thought that the ruling in Hollingsworth to be atrocious with dangerous consequences.)

                             

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 06:34:32 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You think Ginsburg restrained Kennedy? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            sapelcovits

                            What's your evidence for this assertion?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 07:36:43 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I have no concrete evidence (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            jncca, MichaelNY

                            so this is all speculation and deduction.

                            But here are a few things to consider.

                            Kennedy's opinion in Windsor was very broad, going well beyond states rights and making a strong argument for why anti-gay marriage laws are outright unconstitutional.  My guess is that Kennedy actually wrote much of this for the other case if the merits were considered in that case.  Kennedy's broad Windsor opinion is the reason why these laws are being struck down in droves in the lower courts; if Kennedy had only to stuck to a states rights' position, that may not be the case.

                            Justice Kennedy has written all the major gay rights decisions.  The logic for him has been consistent, all these anti-gay bans have only one justification, "animus" against gays.  I think deep down he's completely done with these anti-gay laws, he knows that history is going to discredit them, and he wants his legacy to be around this issue.  I think he had a broad opinion (using his language he expressed in Windsor) ready to go.  How broad, I don't know.  But he would have struck down every anti-gay referendum (without finding a right to marriage equality).  

                            As far as Ginsburg, she has expressed regret over the broad ruling in Roe v Wade repeatedly.  She is really an incrementalist, and she has also stated that the Court should go slow on some of the divisive social issues; nudging society in that direction, but not pushing it there.  She has expressed concern over getting too far ahead of the country.  In a way, Ginsburg overlearned and felt a little burned by Roe v Wade, her logic is perhaps had the legalization process went a little slower, the right to choose would be more accepted today.

                            So if my logic is correct, Kennedy and Ginsburg have different backgrounds and incentives here.  Kennedy sees these laws as having no rational basis in modern society, while Ginsburg agrees with that, she wants the transition to be smoother and the country prepared, so there is minimal backlash at the end.  And so while they may have agreed on the eventual outcome (court legalization of marriage equality at some point).  

                            By 2015 or 2016, I think both of them will get what they want.

                            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 08:00:43 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Ginsburg has said many times (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            that the judiciary inserting itself into the abortion debate in Roe v. Wade was bad for the country.

                            It is logical she'd feel the same about a sweeping same-sex marriage decision.

                            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                            by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 08:01:09 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  She's roughly where the center of the court needs (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    to be.  Kennedy is roughly where the right edge of the court should be.

                    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                    by benamery21 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 09:38:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  "better than that" (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Midwest Leftist, MichaelNY

              Not everyone's in the conservative half of their city, j.

  •  PA - governor and state, local and Federal offices (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    We have a good chance of removing our criminal teabag governor Corbett, and an outside chance of removing a US Congressman Joe Pitts, who is a long term GOP scum in Congress. Also to gain a few more Democrats in local and county offices...we need TURNOUT! We have a good majority of registered Democrats statewide and in my county, but had terrible numbers in 2010, leading to complete teabag takeover of the state...they promptly delivered PA to the frackers who financed them and have done terrible destruction to our economy and future in 4 short years.

    Also a donor to Alison for Senate in KY and to Davis for Governor in Texas, as well as the DCCC.

    Donate- Vote!

    "The tides go out, the tides come in...Nobody knows why." Glenn Beck, 2014.

    by old mark on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:51:10 AM PDT

  •  Dick fucking Cheney has the gall to say (15+ / 0-)
    "Every day, we find new evidence that he'd rather be on the golf course than he would be dealing with the crisis that's developing rapidly in the Middle East," former Vice President Dick Cheney told Fox News this week.
    in the same article
    Since becoming president, Obama has taken 20 vacations lasting two to 15 days. As of Aug. 12, he spent all or part of 138 days on "vacation."

    By the same point in his second term, President George W. Bush spent 381 partial or complete days at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, and another 26 days at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine, according to CBS News reporter Mark Knoller's widely respected record keeping on the presidency. Other recent American leaders also spent more time away.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:00:54 AM PDT

  •  "Where things stand NOW" updated rankings (9+ / 0-)

    Tilt D - AK, CO, IA, NC
    Tilt R - AR, KY, LA
    Lean D - MI, NH
    Lean R - GA, KS
    Likely D - MN, NJ, OR, VA
    Likely R - MS, MT, SD, WV

    Tilt D - CO, HI, KS, ME
    Tilt R - AZ, CT, FL, IL, MI, WI
    Lean D - MA, MN
    Lean R - AR, GA, NM
    Likely D - MD, NH, OR, PA, RI
    Likely R - AK, IA, NE, OH, OK, SC, TX

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:13:23 AM PDT

    •  Thanks! Essentially - exactly my ratings too. (0+ / 0-)

      Very Independent minded. Moderate. Extremely cynical (main principle: don't easily believe anyone, but himself).

      by Ragmod on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:09:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My ratings (4+ / 0-)

      Tossup- AK, AR, LA
      Tilt D - IA, NC
      Tilt R - KY
      Lean D- CO, MI, MN, NH
      Lean R - GA, KS (with Orman (I) being the main opponent)
      Likely D - NJ, OR, VA
      Likely R - MT, WV
      Safe R- MS, SD

      Tossup- FL, KS, MI, WI
      Tilt D - CT, ME
      Tilt R - AZ, IL
      Lean D - CO, HI, MA
      Lean R - AR, NM
      Likely D - MN, NH, OR, PA, RI
      Likely R - AK (Walker(I) as main opponent), GA, IA, NE, OH, OK, SC
      Safe D- MD
      Safe R- TX

      If I had to guess today, I'd say we hold all of the three tossup senate seats, and win FL, KS, and MI governorships.  I'd guess Scott Walker holds on right now, but if the campaign scandal or something else gains any traction, I could see Walker going down.

      If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

      by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:10:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't understand how senate races (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, NMLib, MichaelNY, CF of Aus, anshmishra

      in Oregon, Virginia, and New Jersey are not safe.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:19:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hmm, let's see (0+ / 0-)

      Senate:

      Tossup: IA, NC
      Lean D: AK, CO
      Lean R: AR, LA
      Likely D: MI, MN, NH, OR
      Likely R: GA, KS, KY, MT, WV

      Governors:

      Tossup: CT, FL, KS, ME, MI
      Lean D: CO, HI, MA, PA
      Lean R: AR, IL, WI
      Likely D: NH, OR, RI
      Likely R: AK, AZ, GA, IA, NM, OH, OK

      Gun to my head, we hold the Senate right now.

      Yes, I'm a pessimist compared to many others here. I acknowledge that.

      20/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:31:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's mine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alibguy

      Senate

      Likely D: MN, NH
      Leans D: AK, CO, IA, MI, NC
      Tilts D: AR, LA
      Tilts R: GA, KY
      Leans R: WV
      Likely R: KS, MS, MT, SD

      Governor

      Likely D: MA, MN, PA, RI
      Leans D: CO, CT, ME
      Tilts D: FL, KS
      Tilts R: AR, IL, MI, WI
      Leans R: AZ, GA, OH, SC
      Likely R: AK, IA, NE, NM, TX

      I'm hard pressed to move away from incumbent party. But I like my ratings.

      15, live in VA-04 (Forbes), lifelong resident of Isle of Wight County and home of the Smithfield Ham. Lover of history, government, and politics. Loyal reader of DKE. Somewhere between moderate and progressive Democrat.

      by 757hokiedem on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:43:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Moderate disagreements (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      You're a bit cautious...LA and KY Lean R, KS is Likely R, and NH and MI are Likely D.

      For governors, I'd say the same thing, you're a bit cautious in both directions, and I think Malloy is still favored.  Maine should be Lean D.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 12:12:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll do these a bit differently (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      These are the % chances I think the Dems have in each race, based on where I think it will be on election day:

      Senate: VA 99, OR 98, NJ 98, MN 95, MI 90, NH 90, IA 80, CO 80, NC 65, AK 55, AR 50, LA 50, KY 35, GA 20, KS 10, WV 5, SD 2, MT 2, MS 1.

      Governor: MD 99, NH 99, OR 98, HI 98, RI 95, PA 95, MN 90, ME 90, MA 85, CO 85, CT 75, IL 60, KS 60, FL 55, MI 50, WI 45, AR 40, AZ 35, GA 25, NM 15, OH 10, AK 10, NE 10, IA 5, SC 5, OK 2, TX 2.  

      SSP poster. 45, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 06:28:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think we hold the senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Lose MT/WV/SD/LA
      Win AK/NC/AR

      Outside chance of winning KY

      Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in NM/VA/DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend. Currently managing Catherine Begaye for NM-HD 23

      by Bharat on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:22:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Disagree on LA if we hold the Senate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        anshmishra, USA629

        Louisiana will want Mary Landrieu to stay in the Senate and chair the Committee of Energy and Natural Resources. I think we have a shot at winning GA. A WSB poll just came out with Michelle Nunn up 47%-40% and even Zell Miller of all people is backing her. I'm more optimistic about us winning GA than KY.

        •  Why, given that GA has runoffs? nt (0+ / 0-)

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:41:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yup, LA and GA are low on the list for me (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            because both have runoffs. very hard to get a dem to 50% in either state in a non-presidential year.

            Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in NM/VA/DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend. Currently managing Catherine Begaye for NM-HD 23

            by Bharat on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 03:47:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  LA's special (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Runoffs actually work for us there. And I'm not convinced a similar dynamic is impossible in Georgia.

              •  That's conjecture (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca, Stephen Wolf, propjoe

                Honestly, so many people here engage in stupefying conjecture.

                What actual evidence is there to suggest that Louisiana is better for Democrats in run-offs? What makes Louisiana special? What, other than two or three data points all to do with Landrieu, do we have that suggest that Louisiana itself, rather than Landrieu's unique capabilities, is what makes Democrats do better in run-offs?

                Not a single thing at all. Louisiana isn't any different than any other state.

                08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

                by wwmiv on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 03:56:01 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  shrug (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Same could be said of most other datapoints, including the idea that Democrats don't turn out in midterms - which, it seems to me, is based entirely on 2010. Oh 2006, I miss you and your Democratic wave election that everyone seems to have forgotten.

                  •  I also think the whole "Dems don't turn out in mid (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Stephen Wolf, jncca, MichaelNY

                    terms" is a horrible piece of analysis.

                    I don't think you've ever seen me make that analysis on the back of 2010 alone...

                    What I do think is good analysis is that minorities, the poor, and the young, because of their location along the periphery of our political system and culture are much less likely to become involved, and that the pressures that foster their involvement are less likely to be present during mid-term elections.

                    However, because Democrats have come to rely more and more on these voting blocks this tendency toward reduced turnout vis-a-vis other groups has, lately, hurt Democrats more than it has hurt Republicans. Imagine how great 2006 would have been had minorities and the young turned out at the same rate as the rest of the population! It would have been even better, but of course that kind of counterfactual is often completely ignored by newer users here.

                    08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

                    by wwmiv on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 05:20:37 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Democrats didn't turn out in 2006 (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv, propjoe

                    Independents voted overwhelmingly D.  Look it up.  You consistently reassert things that just aren't true.

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 05:21:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  When someone is wearing rose colored glasses (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Everything looks rosy.

                      08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

                      by wwmiv on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 06:02:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Win KY if the DNC Registers & GOTV. I think Grimes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is doing a great job of campaigning, better than anyone I have seen to date. Role model for Dem. candidates-Loud, gutsy, unafraid, aggressive/assertive. Pivotal state that would scare bejeebus out of GOP if she won. That alone would be worth the price of admission.

        The US ranks 138th out of all 169 voting countries in actual voting. Since 1974, mid-term % of eligible voters who vote avgs. 37%. Democrats would dominate if they did one thing- GOTV. They never do. Curious.

        by Incredulousinusa on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:18:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  In what situation do you expect these to win? (0+ / 0-)

      The Republican Senatorial candidates in NJ, OR, VA; the Republican Gubernatorial candidates in MD, NH, PA; the Democratic candidates in IA, TX? In other words, why are these not Safe races?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:33:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't expect anything (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        As I've said before these rankings mean different things to different people. For me likely means there is some unexpected polling and/or potential for things to tighten due to a well-funded candidacy. But again I'm rating these as they stand now not necessarily where they might finish.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 02:15:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  George Allen/Jim Webb in early August 2006 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        anshmishra, MichaelNY, askew

        That is the best example of a likely race IMO.   There was nothing in the polling that suggested that Webb could win, Webb had raised next to nothing, and DC insiders largely wrote the race off.  Then Macaca happened.

        If George Allen were truly safe, he would have won despite Macaca and the Dem wave with room to spare.  Had the Ds nominated a weaker candidate than Webb, this would have been safe.

        The only races I would consider safe in your list are MD Gov and TX Gov.  Due to demographics and partisan polarization, I see no scenario that the Rs can win the former and the Ds the latter.  Even if Greg Abbott were to be indicted next week for taking a bribe, Davis wouldn't win.   Of the other races, Oregon is the closest to safe because Wehby is an incredibly damaged candidate.

        If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

        by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 10:35:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Might be a difference in definition (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY

          I define "safe" to mean "if nothing else changes, the candidate wins". I don't try to anticipate Macaca moments or their effect on the race. If I did, Texas would definitely not be a safe-R race. The state isn't that polarized - we lost by a 12% margin in 2010 of all years.

          •  And that's my point with Texas (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Bill White was the best candidate the Ds could get, Rick Perry was about the worst that the Rs have, and the Rs won by double digits.  Even in a D wave year like 2006, Perry would be at worst a slight favorite over White (I think Perry would beat White by about 50-48 in a D wave year with today's demographics.)  By 2018, I think a strong D could win in a D leaning year.  But not yet.

            If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

            by USA629 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:29:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

            I rate safe based on a lack of basis to see a currently plausible path to victory. There are a lot of currently safe races that I'd re-rate if the candidate were suddenly credibly accused of rape, murder, armed robbery, drug-dealing, or other crimes Americans consider severe, or made a statement in support of Islamist terrorism, the Ku Klux Klan, the Nazis, the communists, adults having sex with children, legalized slavery today, polygamy, outlawing contraception, told Israel to go fuck itself, said that poor people should be rounded up and shot, etc.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:41:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for easy-to-understand & helpful post. (0+ / 0-)

      The US ranks 138th out of all 169 voting countries in actual voting. Since 1974, mid-term % of eligible voters who vote avgs. 37%. Democrats would dominate if they did one thing- GOTV. They never do. Curious.

      by Incredulousinusa on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:12:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  since a good chunk of us (0+ / 0-)

    are watching the marathon, i have a question.  Am I the only one who'd rather have that shirt made of kittens than the hanes shirt?  They keep airing it and it doesn't make sense why someone would take the shirt over the kittens.

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:14:24 AM PDT

  •  Scott Walker (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    anshmishra

    Is there anything to these new documents?  
    I'm skeptical that campaign finance violations really moves many votes.  But in a race as close as this one, who knows.

    If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

    by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:24:47 AM PDT

    •  Yes, there is quite a bit to these documents (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      USA629, anshmishra, Bharat, MichaelNY

      This is the first time we've seen hard proof that Walker himself actually coordinated with a Republican/conservative PAC (specifically, Club for Growth Wisconsin, which Walker solicited funds for). Prior to this, there were document releases that suggested that Walker and Republican state legislative candidates were illegally coordinating (including Walker bragging to Karl Rove in an email about coordination between GOP candidates and PACs), and there were prosecutors criticizing Walker for running a "criminal scheme", but this is the first time that we've seen hard, indisputable proof that Walker illegally coordinated with PACs. Additionally, four individuals (Kelly Rindfleisch, R.J. Johnson, Keith Gilkes, and Eric O'Keefe, all of which have ties to Walker, CfG Wisconsin, or both) from four different counties under the five-county (Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Iowa, and Milwaukee) jurisdiction of the probe are under investigation, although a fifth individual who is under investigation was not named. That individual is believed to be either Walker (although the special prosecutor has claimed that Walker himself is not a target of the probe) or, less likely, a GOP state legislator from one of the five counties in the probe's jurisdiction.

      However, the current investigation against Walker is tied up in a legal challenge (specifically, CfG Wisconsin is basically claiming that corruption is a form of constitutionally-protected free speech, which would be an absolutely bogus claim if it weren't for right-wing judges at many levels of the federal judiciary) in federal court, as a result, prosecutors haven't been able to file charges against Walker or anyone else.

      •  Question is will this move votes (4+ / 0-)

        I doubt that any indictments are coming down before November.  

        But is this enough of a stink around Walker to turn a 1-2% win for Walker into a 1-2% win for Burke?

        If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

        by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:25:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  this may move votes IMO (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          there are some good headlines out of this for newspaper tears in ads that could motivate dem turnout

          Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in NM/VA/DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend. Currently managing Catherine Begaye for NM-HD 23

          by Bharat on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:26:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  My music, vinyl record-style (0+ / 0-)

    Since my dad and I fixed his old turntable, I was able to play his copy of Queen's album "A Night at the Opera" and found some new hits.  Here's one of them, as recorded by another guy on his turntable:
    http://youtu.be/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 08:26:23 AM PDT

  •  CA Assembly & Senate races I'm curious to s... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    CA Assembly & Senate races

    I'm curious to see whether or not we can hold onto the supermajorities this year.

    I'm also really looking forward to seeing how we do in 2016. I think we have a small chance at 75% control in at least one of the two chambers after 2016.

    •  In (8+ / 0-)

      the Assembly it's a tossup. I think Steve Fox's seat is gone, but we'll probably pick up Jeff Gorell's seat. The Assembly supermajority will hinge on whether or not Sharon Quirk-Silva holds onto her seat.

      The Senate I think we're roughly about a 40% chance of Democrats retaining their supermajority on paper (Rod Wright who's currently suspended won't have his term end until 2016 so he'll either get his conviction overturned or he'll resign and a special election is held).

      The problem is that Democrats have to hold Lou Correa's seat which is open. This is an district which voted for Obama in 2012, but that Meg Whitman won in 2010. Also in the June primary Janet Nguyen and her other GOP opponent combined took ~63% of the vote.

      While turnout for Democrats will be higher in November that's still a very huge hill for Jose Solorio to climb especially since Hispanics don't turnout in Midterm years. Solorio has gotta hope that Jerry Brown has coattails.

      Now on paper Andy Vidak who won Michael Rubio's seat in the special election last year should be vunerable. The problem is that Vidak's seat got redder in redistricting and he has the advantage of incumbency.

      Plus Jerry Brown won't run up the score in the Central Valley due to the drought and opposition to High Speed Rail so there will be no coattails for Democrats to grab onto. Even if Brown had coattails they will be small and easily canceled out by Obama's unpopularity which I imagine is running pretty high in the Central Valley these days.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 09:43:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Any reason you're pessimistic about AD-36? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Is it just concern about midterm turnout, or has Fox committed any major mistakes?

        •  Midterm (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem

          turnout mostly. What's worrying about AD-36 is that Obama won this district by only 0.3% in 2012. Obama is literally the reason why Fox is in office in the first place plus the GOP was caught sleeping here big time.

          Plus I believe this district takes in CD-25 where two Republicans (Tony Strickland and Steve Knight) advanced to the November election.

          Fox could still win and there is no sign he's being written off (there's a reason why the legislature passed the aerospace tax credit bill Fox authored even though they hated it), but he's facing some very stiff headwinds.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:27:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  We've a got a good chance at keeping it (5+ / 0-)

      in the assembly. Democrats have shots at picking up AD 40 and AD 44 those can make up for the losses from Fox and Quirk-Silva.

      The Senate looks much more challenging.

      25, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-41(former) CA-34(current)

      by lordpet8 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 09:59:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, we need to pile into (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        SD-14 and particularly SD-34 with both barrels.  I think our best chance is the Dem held open seat SD-34 in OC.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 03:47:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The ACLU is filing a suit to crack back open the Hawaii senate primary. Apparently some people couldnt make it to vote even on the make-up election day. I cant imagine that this suit is for more than a couple hundred people at most. Seems a little silly considering that they already had a makeup Friday. Thoughts?

    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/...

  •  GA-Sen: Nunn and Perdue "debate" (12+ / 0-)

    Couple days ago, Nunn and Perdue met in a forum in Macon and had something close to their first debate. Apparently, Nunn "surprised and impressed" some Republican strategists with her performance, described as "spunky" in the article.

    She's a phenomenal fundraiser, a great campaigner, and a good debater. If she loses, it sure won't be because her performance was lacking in any way. The Georgia Democratic Party struck gold with their recruitment this year.

    •  I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She's never run for office before, but has been in very high circles of politics for many years, including running an extremely high profile non-profit. She's obviously smart and able to handle herself.

    •  Update on this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I have video of at least part of the "debate". It largely hit all the familiar themes: Nunn wants bipartisan compromise while working together to get things done and not burn bridges, while Perdue really doesn't like taxes, immigrants, or Obamacare. Nunn doesn't support an EO on immigration, btw.

      Something interesting in the debate is that Nunn brought up Perdue throwing a hissy at the Georgia Chamber of Commerce meeting. She's absolutely trying to secure their endorsement, which would be a huge blow to Perdue, whose only qualification is that he ran some businesses. Another funny thing is when the topic of defense came up. Nunn really came alive for that one. I disagreed with her on it, but I understand why she holds her positions, and it'll definitely play well in Georgia. She brought up how her father didn't let a single military base close in Georgia in his entire stint in the Senate, and neatly tied that into her bipartisan appeal.

      All in all, it was an interesting "debate". Perdue really needs to rethink his support of the government shutdown.

  •  TX-23 ALS Ice Bucket Challenge (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tayya, KingofSpades, bythesea

    08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

    by wwmiv on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:30:38 AM PDT

  •  Brazilian presidential election gets interesting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, benamery21, MichaelNY

    Marina Silva has replaced the late Eduardo Campos on the Brazilian Socialist Party ticket, and suddenly, the Socialist ticket is polling very competitively in a three-way race. Story here.

    A poll by Datafolha taken after the tragedy and published on August 18th gave Mr Campos’s running-mate, Marina Silva, more than double his most recent showing (see chart). On August 20th Campos’s centrist Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) duly blessed Ms Silva as his replacement, naming Beto Albuquerque, one of its congressmen, as her running mate. [...]

    Ms Silva’s irruption is a problem for Ms Rousseff, whose chances of polling more than 50% on October 5th (and thus avoiding a run-off) seem to have evaporated. If that is against Ms Silva, Datafolha reckons that Ms Rousseff would narrowly lose—the first time she has been behind in a poll.

    Mauro Paulino, Datafolha’s boss, dismisses the idea that Ms Silva’s surge is merely a passing wave of sympathy after Mr Campos’s death. Rather, it mirrors her support in 2010; she could easily pick up the further backing she needs to pull ahead of Aécio Neves, the PSDB candidate, and get into the run-off, he thinks.

    Others are not so sure. Protest candidates rarely do well twice, in Brazil or elsewhere. Ms Silva is a fervent evangelical Protestant in what is still a mainly Catholic country. The PSB’s rank-and-file may prove lukewarm; she only joined up with Mr Campos after being unable to register her own party for the election.

    President Rousseff is in better shape than I might have reckoned after the World Cup. But she's not out of the woods yet, and a runoff with either Sen. Neves or Silva could be quite unpredictable.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:52:16 AM PDT

  •  GOP candidate (19+ / 0-)

    for ultra-red state house seat in Colorado says that Rep. Jared Polis wants to join ISIS in beheading Christians.

    This comes from an email his organization sent, with a personal message from the candidate himself at the end.

    Gay Congressman:  "No Religious Exemptions" for Christians

    The openly homosexual Congressman Jared Polis (D-CO) introduced a revised bill to force Christian employers and business owners to hire and promote homosexuals with ZERO RELIGIOUS EXEMPTIONS for Christians who want to opt out.

    Polis "wants sexual orientation and gender identity treated the same way as race, religion, sex, and national origin, when it comes to employment protections," claims the Advocate, under the headline "Polis trims ENDA's religious exemption."

    Klingenschmitt's comment:  The open persecution of Christians is underway.  Democrats like Polis want to bankrupt Christians who refuse to worship and endorse his sodomy.  Next he'll join ISIS in beheading Christians, but not just in Syria, right here in America.

    Normally I don't go for clickbait articles about "omg you won't believe what this legislator said", there's thousands of them in the country and a few hundred are certifiably nuts at any given moment.  It isn't news.  Even moreso when it comes to candidates, many of whom are nobody Republicans running hopeless races in 80% Obama districts.

    But this guy (Gordon Klingenschmitt, for HD-15) has already won the GOP primary and will almost certainly be joining the legislature next year, and he might be the most bonkers one yet.  I think his triumph in the primary against a far more reasonable (yet RMGO-backed!) candidate demonstrates how nuts the CO Republican Party is getting these days.  Their moderates are now Cory Gardner and Mike Coffman.  It's exceedingly unlikely their hardcore conservative base will ever allow a true moderate to proceed to a statewide election again.  Their last moderates in the legislature are being replaced by wingers.  They no longer can win districts that went for Obama.  As they fade in the Denver metro area, and continue to lose ground in the diverse portions of the Springs, it will become harder and harder for them to remain relevant in a state that now has a Dem PVI.

    The Colorado GOP is starting to resemble the Alabama GOP, and the party bigwigs have no idea how to stop this from happening and actually win elections again.

    •  I just read that same article. (6+ / 0-)

      At least Dems are contesting the seat.  What a lunatic!

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 12:54:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup (4+ / 0-)

        Lois Fornander stepped up, but was probably expecting to lose handily to the other Republican.  Klingenschmitt's 51-49 primary victory was a shocker, so hopefully Fornander is getting some assistance.  Romney won the seat 62-35, but I think with a little effort Fornander could get over 40%.  The trouble, as always in downballot races like this, is making people aware of how utterly insane the other candidate is.  Klingenschmitt has also gone on about Obama sending demons through the television and turning your children and pets gay.  The man really needs help.

        It would be glorious if we somehow picked up this seat, even if it's just a 2-year rental.  Although part of me just wants Klingenschmitt to win and then embarrass the GOP for a good long while.  Anything that makes Republicans look crazier in Colorado helps us.

        •  It's definitely better for Klingenschmitt to win (0+ / 0-)

          Control of the state legislature isn't at stake, so there really isn't much of a point in getting a two-year rental. Hopefully Klingenschmitt wins and stays around for a long time; he's completely harmless because he's insane enough that he won't even shift the Overton window, but he gives Democrats something to whack Republicans with repeatedly.

          •  Hopefully the Democrat wins and continues to win (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, PassionateJus, MichaelNY

            because Republicans keep nominating lunatics year after year.

            The goal should not be having x% of the seats occupied by lunatics so we can continue to hold our seats but better to get y% of the voters to turn away from the Republicans indefinitely while encouraging the Republicans to continue to nominate unelectable people.

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 01:36:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Democrats aren't holding a 62% Romney seat (0+ / 0-)

              Trying to hold such a seat against any Republican who isn't as deranged as Klingenschmitt would just be a waste of money and resources.

              •  Of course they aren't (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The point is obviously if they beat this guy they want to run against that guy or a similar deranged one and beat him, not lose to him.

                A 62% Romney seat is not a 62% deranged lunatic seat.

                All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                by tommypaine on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:30:51 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It doesn't need to be (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  All it has to be is for 50% to consider a deranged right-wing lunatic to be a lesser evil than a Democrat.  

                  And it is very likely that is so here.

                  If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                  by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 03:40:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, pity this seat is so tilted (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Skaje

          considering it's CO Springs, I'll bet there's a large evangelical population in this district.  He'll likely be a big source of comedy.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:59:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Ugh (6+ / 0-)

      Rep. Polis, of course, is Jewish -- so this smear takes on an even uglier hue.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 12:56:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think this has anything at all to do with (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, jncca, Jorge Harris

        him being Jewish. Frankly, I doubt the Republican even knows that Polis is Jewish, given his incredibly idiocy and loose connections to reality and facts.

        08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

        by wwmiv on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 01:05:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wondered about (9+ / 0-)

          the part where Polis wants to "bankrupt" Christians.  Kinda seemed to be playing into Jewish banker stereotypes.  You may be right that Klingenschmitt's connection to reality is so tenuous that he doesn't even know that Polis is Jewish.  But the whole email is structured as "Polis vs. Christians" and I have to think someone who had a hand in that email knew what they were doing.

          In any case, I have no doubt Klingenschmitt hates Jews along with gays, Muslims, atheists, and so on.  People like that are rarely single target haters.

          •  The problem I see with the analysis (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

            is that it implicitly assumes that he wouldn't attack a Christian for being anti-Christian in the exact same way.

            And we all know that people like this are so unhinged that they'll attack anyone for being anti-Christian that disagrees with them on policy whether that person is Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Gay, Straight, Transgender, Black, White, Asian, Hispanic, Rich, Poor, whatever.

            They hate everyone that isn't exactly like they are.

            Ergo, it isn't because Polis is Jewish. If Polis were Christian and had the exact same viewpoints he currently does, he'd be getting the exact same type of attack against him by this crazytown Republican.

            08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

            by wwmiv on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 01:24:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  well, I agree that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Klingenschmitt may not actually be aware of the fact that Polis is Jewish. Nonetheless, the reality that Polis is, in fact, Jewish makes the attacks in that much poorer taste.

              Living in Shizuoka-01 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01. Always number one.

              by sapelcovits on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 04:14:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Yuck (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      That guy is just disgusting. I hope he gets called for it.

      15, live in VA-04 (Forbes), lifelong resident of Isle of Wight County and home of the Smithfield Ham. Lover of history, government, and politics. Loyal reader of DKE. Somewhere between moderate and progressive Democrat.

      by 757hokiedem on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 01:03:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This happened to California too (0+ / 0-)

      It takes time to recalibrate.  The CA GOP hasn't really done so yet.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 04:57:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What do you mean? (0+ / 0-)

        What does one nutty candidate have to do with the recalibration (or lack thereof) of a statewide party?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:58:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a symptom of the problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The Colorado GOP primary electorate, unlike the New Hampshire GOP primary electorate, hasn't been supporting center-right establishment Republicans because they aren't used to being in a swing state.  This hurts them in November.  Compare Beauprez, Tancredo, and that dude from 2008 I can't remember to Ayotte, Gregg, and Scott Brown, with Ovide Lamontagne being an exception.

          California's GOP is similar to Colorado's, although they've moved somewhat.  They vote for candidates in between New Hampshire Republicans and Colorado ones, or some mix.  Someday they may finally start voting for candidates like Kashkari in larger numbers.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:53:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Whitman was also like Kashkari (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, ehstronghold

            He's hardly a first.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:06:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The CA GOP has a "problem" the CO GOP doesn't (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, TrueBlueDem

              Because they're in such a large and blue state, they essentially need to run businesspeople (no member of Congress would give up their seat to run and anyone lower down is too unknown) every time.  That limits their pickings to establishment Republicans.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:22:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  My only problem.. (0+ / 0-)

      is the repeated reference to prayers. I think it's just awkwardly shunted in. Otherwise, it's a good attack ad. I'm glad Wendy's finally on the air.

    •  Good ad. Drive his negatives way up (0+ / 0-)

      The chances of a Davis win are slim but I think Abbott is very far right I'd argue he's even more conservative than Perry. If he ends up winning lets hope he ends up like Brownback and becomes unpopular.

    •  Needs to drive up the office more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She's driving up "Abbott" narratives, but not disqualifying Abbott as governor.

      Only mentions what office he's running for once. Straight ticket voting is so strong and getting stronger, she needs to draw attention to this office so people look at it and vote elsewhere.

      Granted, a lot of my political instincts are drawn from a real life example in 2008. During GOTV I asked a voter if they had voted yet during early voting and the response was "yes." When asked if they supported my candidate the response was "you bet! I hit a straight Republican ticket!"

      I worry this goes down that same rabbit hole with voters of "Abbott is evil? Must be a Democrat. I'll continue straight ticket republican voting. Also, what office? Doesn't matter"

      SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

      by trowaman on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:41:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (6+ / 0-)

        I think these ads are devastating, and much better than the average attack ad. I'd also hazard a guess that the reason they're not on the air with positive spots yet is that they want to soften the electorate up, to be more receptive to an alternative. It's precisely what you said; they don't want to put a big flashy sign up that says it's a Democrat saying these things. They want to try to soften Abbot up and then reveal the alternative.

        The game plan is probably to drive Abbot's negatives up, and then launch a major positive ad blitz near the end of the race to leave a positive impression of Davis before Abbot's campaign has time to rebut. That'd be my best guess of what they're doing, and I think they're doing a pretty good job of the first part so far.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:30:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Survived first week of law school (11+ / 0-)

    And now watching a Giants-Nats game with slacks (the DKEer).

    Let's just say the law school is going better than this game right now.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18). DC-AL (school), CA-14 (home and voting). DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 03:20:15 PM PDT

  •  Suppose the GOP ran a Michele Bachmann clone (0+ / 0-)

    in every Congressional district.  How many districts would they win?

    I would guess somewhere between 150-180.  Political polarization (and gerrymandering) is such that a large proportion of the country would consider Michele Bachmann a lesser evil than a Democrat, even if many don't like Bachmann's views.

    If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

    by USA629 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 03:45:00 PM PDT

    •  I think they could lower than that, maybe 120-130 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      USA629, demreplib33, MichaelNY

      Remember she nearly lost a very non-poor R+10 district and probably would have done so this year had she run for reelection. If they ran Bachmann in every district we'd also have a national environment much more favorable to us.

    •  A crude estimate (6+ / 0-)

      Bachmann won by 1.2% in a district where Romney won by 15%, so she underperformed by a 13.8% margin. Romney won the following Republican-held districts by less than 13.8%: AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-31, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-03, CO-06, FL-02, FL-07, FL-10, FL-12, FL-13, FL-15, FL-16, FL-25, FL-27, GA-01, IA-03, IA-04, IL-06, IL-13, IL-14, IL-16, KS-02, KS-03, KY-06, MI-01, MI-03, MI-04, MI-06, MI-07, MI-08, MI-10, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, MT-AL, NC-09, NC-13, NE-02, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11, NM-02, NV-02, NV-03, NY-02, NY-11, NY-19, NY-22, NY-23, NY-27, OH-01, OH-02, OH-05, OH-06, OH-07, OH-10, OH-12, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, PA-15, PA-16, SC-05, SC-07, VA-01, VA-02, VA-04, VA-05, VA-10, WA-03, WA-05, WA-08, WI-01, WI-06, WI-07, WI-08.

      That's 90 seats, if I counted correctly. Maybe some of these Republicans would survive and Democrats could clip off some Republicans not on this list, but 90 seats is probably in the right range. Democrats would still lose McIntyre and Matheson's seats (the latter even if we use 2008 results), so that's +88 Democrats total, leaving 146 Republicans.

  •  MI-Lt. Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    Lt. Gov Brian Calley has won renomination over Wes Nakagiri.  Results were not issued and Nagakiri asked that the results be made unanimous, but the Free Press cites party insiders as saying that Calley got over 60% of the vote.

    Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 06:21:20 PM PDT

    •  Preserves Nakagiri... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueDem

      For a statewide office run with party support (or at least not rabid opposition) in 2016 or 2018. Smart move by him. Still think we've got a good shot at kicking Lt. Gov. Calley and his boss out of Lansing in a few months.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:42:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It will come into line (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem

        Snyder's Michigan has been pretty radical in a handful of ways, and in particular towards African-Americans vis-a-vis emergency managers. I think AA turnout will be above average.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:04:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Never in doubts (0+ / 0-)

      Calley's renomination was never in doubt.  It was the media playing up Nakagiri's campaign.  Nakagiri is and will continue to be a non-entity.  The tea party movement in Michigan is very much alive and well, and would have survived and remained so had Wes been close or far.  But, Nakagiri is not a politician, nor will he ever be.

      No More Mikes: Eric Schertzing for Congress

      by MetroGnome on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 07:50:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA: AJC says Landmark poll more reliable than (12+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 06:41:27 PM PDT

    •  I agree with them (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      And not because I'm optimistic about the race.

      The SUSA sample had very clear issues with its sampling (way too few blacks, etc), and internet polling is still iffy at best. I think it'll be borne out in the end that internet polling suffers too much from response bias, moreso than other forms of polling. It's not significantly better than doing in-person polling on a sidewalk. Companies that robopoll are going to have to switch to a live-caller model at some point.

      •  Hang on ... (0+ / 0-)

        Do you mean internet polling is iffy, or robo-polling? They are different things, and unless SUSA has changed recently I believe the do robo-polling (like PPP), not internet.

        •  Both (0+ / 0-)

          Some firms are going to internet polling since robopolling is limited to landlines due to Bush's Do Not Contact law. One of those firms is apparently SUSA. Per the article:

          Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.
          So, robopolling is quickly becoming problematic due to its limited ability to contact the growing number of people who do not own landlines, and its replacement - internet sampling - is problematic by its very nature due to response bias. The only real solution is to bite the bullet and do live polling, thus taking a hit on your production costs and charging more per poll. Volume decreases, but quality increases.
      •  If I were David Perdue... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Jorge Harris, TrueBlueDem

        I'd be very, very nervous right now. This race is still top-tier for both parties, even though Democrats are playing offense while fending off some structural difficulties, and Michelle Nunn is both a gifted candidate and a well-funded one, in addition to her famous name and political pedigree.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:44:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They're on an island right now (0+ / 0-)

      And have been for some time. Hard for me to give it much weight when at least five other polls say the opposite.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 02:06:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LOL at AJC (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Sorry, their explanation is the same discredited one long used by so many in corporate political media.

      Ultimately polls have to be judged by accuracy in recent and longer-term history, not by methodology.  Methodology explains why some polling is good and other bad, but it's obvious today that media poll live calling isn't definitively better than robocalling.  Private campaign pollsters do mostly live calling and are superior, yes, but they employ a lot of expensive methodological tools that media organizations won't pay for.  As a result, media polls even trying to imitate private campaign polling methodology ultimately are uneven at best.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:58:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Unashamed New Diary Pimping (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Where to send your campaign dollars in 2014 State Executive Races. Hope you enjoy.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 07:39:24 PM PDT

  •  Politico (12+ / 0-)

    has an good article out about how Democrats are trying to gin up African American turnout in the South by using members of the Congressional Black Caucus like Jim Clayburn, John Lewis and Cory Booker since Obama is as popular as AIDS in the South right now.

    And they're ripping a page out of Thad Cochran's playbook:

    Cummings and Rep. G.K. Butterfied (D-N.C.) were in North Carolina last month to campaign for Hagan. The congressmen outlined their view of the consequences for the black community if the Senate flips to Republican control for the first time in nearly a decade. Welfare benefits could be slashed, they warned, along with spending on public housing and education.

    “We need to clearly demonstrate to the African American people what the consequences are if Democrats lose the U.S. Senate,” Butterfield said after the event.

    Right now the CBC is focusing their efforts on making sure Mary Landrieu, Kay Hagan win reelection along with a handful of house races like Bill Enyart and Joe Garcia where African American turnout will be key.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:18:55 PM PDT

    •  I don't know why they are only figuring this out.. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ehstronghold, TrueBlueDem

      ...this year??  this should have been a strategy for decades!

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 12:33:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Hill concern trolls Iowa senate race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 08:13:42 AM PDT

    •  Seems perfectly reasonable to me (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Freego10, MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 09:07:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Heh (5+ / 0-)

      I gotta hand it to the Republicans, they've really controlled the CW in this race. They turned an innocuous and inconsequential flub into a giant, career-ending gaffe. Braley'll win, but it'll be a well-fought race. And that stands to reason - Iowa is a battleground state at the federal level. But it's one that leans toward us.

      •  In the end I don't think IA is close (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Much more worried about a raft of others. Ernst is too much of a target-rich environment.

        •  And easy to paint as extremist. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They hinted they'll attack her for her support of embryonic pershonhood last year.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 10:55:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  A target rich environment... (0+ / 0-)

          ...that is being given a complete and total pass while she charms the media into thinking she's a moderate.  The Braley campaign leaves much to be desired.

          "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

          by LordMike on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 12:33:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They've done attack ads (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem

            How is that a total pass?  They've run ads about her stance on the minimum wage, the EPA, social security, the DoEd, and they're going to do ones on her support of embryonic personhood.  A total pass is doing no attack ads, which is absolutely incorrect.  The Braley campaign, the DSCC, and NextGen have all done them.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:02:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm sure they're saving the biggest targets (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              for after Labor Day.  But I don't get how you say they're giving a complete and total pass when that is absolutely not the case.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:03:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Also, her comments have gotten media attention. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:04:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for the link (0+ / 0-)

      But it's not trolling, even if you disagree with some of the tone.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:43:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NH-Sen: Peak Politico (11+ / 0-)

    "It's on". Because of course it is.

    I love how they mention UNH is a crappy, erratic pollster, but breathlessly tout the poll anyway. I also love how the Republican strategist gives Shaheen "55-45" odds. More like 55/45 margin.

    •  Good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm not sure why Republicans think it's a good thing (for them) to make the CW think races are close. The principle dynamic in modern politics is turnout of Dem demographics. If high, Dems win, if low, Repubs win. Repub turnout is pretty constant. The more the message gets out that races are super close, the higher turnout. It's completely self-defeating, and that's why you see Dem campaigns constantly sending out messages that their races are teetering on the edge (even when they evidently aren't).

    •  The article also mentions.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      ...that no one on the GOP side actually believes the poll reflects the legitimate state of the race, but it's still on just 'cos Brown is so dreamy!

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 12:32:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL Politics (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY, askew

    Illinois Democrats are using a pledge system to encourage people who ordinarily vote in presidential elections but don't ordinarily vote in midterm elections to vote in this year's midterm elections.

    The article seemed to indicate that IL Dems were only doing this in the southern part of the state. I'm not sure if they're doing this in other areas of the state.

  •  ME-Sen (10+ / 0-)

    The Bellows campaign is hyping PPP's new poll for them which shows the race much closer than UNH did (they had Collins up an eyebrow-raising 72-17).  They're not releasing the toplines yet, but acknowledge they're down by 24 points.  I guess being down by 24 is better than being down by 55.  The Bellows campaign is predictably pushing this as if they've gained 30 points, compared to UNH.

    Any other recent dueling polls where the pollsters differ by 30 points?  What a disaster polling is these days.

    It's worth mentioning that PPP's last poll all the way back in November had Collins up 59-20, so I'm guessing the toplines have "improved" to something like 58-34 now as undecided Dems have come home for Bellows (and PPP is using a tighter screen).  But a campaign's gotta use what it can, and if pushing back against UNH's 55 point margin poll gets some more Democrats excited about her candidacy, then better for us.

    Before anyone says it.  Yes I know this race is Safe GOP, Collins will probably get around 65%, and donations should be steered towards Democrats with a chance of winning instead.  But I also acknowledge what a thankless task running against unbeatable Republicans is, and commend Bellows for stepping up when no one else would.  Better we have someone actually trying to campaign like her than some random dude who puts in the filing fee for kicks and then does nothing afterwards.  Or worse, a LaRouchie or other crazy getting our ballot line.  I'm happy to see Democrats fighting even unwinnable races, and in a blue state even moreso.  As we continue to lose our red-state Senators, we will depend more on the blue states sending solid Dem delegations.

    We're not getting Collins this time, but who knows in six years from now?  Just because Collins survived 2008 vs. Rep. Tom Allen doesn't mean she will always be invincible.  Several Democrats survived 1994 but were felled in 2010.  Mark Pryor was so strong in 2008 no one even filed against him (even as McCain won a landslide in the state), and now look at where he is.  Linc Chafee won his first race by 16 points in 2000, was very moderate and popular six years later, but still got taken down by Sheldon Whitehouse.

    I won't be sending any money to Bellows, but I admire that she's at least trying.  The more Democrats she gets to reject Collins this time, the easier Chellie Pingree's or Emily Cain's or Mike Michaud's job will be in 2020, if they try for the Senate seat.  A relatively good performance from Bellows (like if she can hit 40%) might even discourage Collins from seeking another term should 2020 build towards a Dem wave and strong Democrats start circling the seat.

    •  I'm worried (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145

      about Shenna Bellows being a vote drag on Mike Michaud as he fights to win his tossup race, and also other downballot Democrats. It's a certainty she's going to do worse than Tom Allen did.
      Maine hasn't shown any signs of withdrawing its support for Independents and "Moderate Republicans" and I'm so certain that Collins will win in a landslide in 2020 as well, barring a major scandal. She's an institution. Nobody can deny that.

    •  If we win the WH in 2016, and 2020 starts looki... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea

      If we win the WH in 2016, and 2020 starts looking like a wave in our direction, I think the GOP may actually crumble.

    •  I really applaude her (Bellows) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      attempt, but don't think any additional money must be spent to help her. There are simply much more critically important races in other states. But her race will measure one thing at least: percentage of "rock solid" Democratic voters (in Maine), who are not ready to vote even for moderate Republican even against very left Democrat. An important number after all.

      Personally i think Collins will be rather easily reelected in 2020 too (if she runs), but you are correct - anything may happen... And for that case Democrats must be prepared.

      Very Independent minded. Moderate. Extremely cynical (main principle: don't easily believe anyone, but himself).

      by Ragmod on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 10:07:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Donna Brazile seems a liability, not an asset, in (6+ / 0-)

    charge of Voter Registration in DNC for 2014. Political schmoozer, insider. Friend of Rove, Bush, Matalin, Lieberman. Was Campaign Manager for Gore, talked him out of using Bill Clinton, I read, in key states. Also read she talked him out of campaigning in Tennessee. From everything I see and have read, Donna Brazile is precisely the wrong person in a key spot in this Mid-Term election. Has screwed up 90% of campaigns she was involved in. I hope Debbie W Schultz knows what she is doing because I think Brazile is best at promoting herself and has proven she is otherwise inept.
    No wonder Democrats lose and do not take advantage of their potential voters.  

    The US ranks 138th out of all 169 voting countries in actual voting. Since 1974, mid-term % of eligible voters who vote avgs. 37%. Democrats would dominate if they did one thing- GOTV. They never do. Curious.

    by Incredulousinusa on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:14:42 PM PDT

    •  If she's friend of Bush, that's a plus (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Incredulousinusa

      Bush ran a great ground game in 2004.  If Democrats could replicate it in 2014 it'd be wonderful.  One such area was church-based turnout, which could really help us among Black voters in competitive races like LA-Sen, AR-Sen, MI-Gov...Just because he was a Republican doesn't mean we can't use any of his tactics.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:27:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The whole party is run by operatives... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Incredulousinusa

      ...who have a video game mentality to politics and don't understand the concerns of their own voters.

      •  [citation needed] (9+ / 0-)

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:11:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •   GOP is bad enough-privatize SS & Med.-I'd (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        trumpet that to the country loud and clear every
        time I had an audience, keeping it simple enough
        to sway voters. I don't know about you but that is the most audacious concept idea I have heard lately, since most people wind up relying on both of them. If you can't make political hay out of that, you might as well quit.

        The US ranks 138th out of all 169 voting countries in actual voting. Since 1974, mid-term % of eligible voters who vote avgs. 37%. Democrats would dominate if they did one thing- GOTV. They never do. Curious.

        by Incredulousinusa on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 09:44:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  So Aaron Woolf (Dem candidate for NY-21)... (5+ / 0-)

    So really interested in this Aaron Woolf character and whether we are screwed in NY-21.

    Looking on his website, he seems to be a fairly normal Dem candidate. He does not support the SAFE Act (well if he did I presume we would definitely lose).

    He seems to be someone personally worthy of support:

    And to that end, Aaron believes a woman’s fundamental right to choose and make her own healthcare decisions should never be infringed upon. In that same way, Aaron supports full marriage equality and policies like ENDA that protect LGBT Americans from discrimination in the workplace.
    While obviously he is coming back to the district, his back story seem reasonable to counter the inevitable carpet bagger narrative:
    His life in the district began in 1968 at age 4, when his parents bought a home in Elizabethtown. Living in the North Country, Aaron learned to cut timber, mill boards and frame walls, skills that would enable him to help rebuild his family home after it was lost to fire.
    His FEC forms seem to show a fairly standard mix of donors for a serious Dem candidate. Certainly he seemed to have the typical institutional backing of a serious candidate.

    Looking through his FEC filing, I found something that would fill Gordon Klingenschmitt with horror - Jared Polis personally contributed $1,000 to the Woolf campaign.

    Bill Owens for Congress gave $4,000 in the primary and $4,000 for the general which is nice. (Perhaps someone has mentioned this before on DKE ?)

    A few other reps gave via their PACS - Brian Higgins for Congress PAC also gave $1,000. Friends of Jim Clyburn $2,000, Friends of Rosa DeLauro $500, Grace for New York PAC $1,000, Levin for Congress PAC $1,000. Nancy Pelosi came up with $2,000 in the primary and $4,000 in the general, Hoyer for Congress gave $2,000 in the primary and $4,000 in the general. Pallone for Congress gave $2,000.

    There seem to be strong union and environmental support eg. SEIU gave $5,000, Sierra Club gave $2,500.

    I see the DCCC gave him $12.5K

    A Patricia Woolf Sara Woolf and a Suze Woolf both gave him money (this is what I dont understand about some candidates who cant raise any money at all... if you cant convince people that know you to give you money why run at all !)

    Franklin County Dems gave $2,500, St Laurence, Clinton and Essex Counties $1,000. Saratoga $250

    So after a bit of research, I am perhaps a bit more reassured that Aaron Woolf is a serious candidate, and worthy of support. I wouldn't yet rate NY-21 worse than a Toss Up. While he is not a top tier candidate, he does seem like a quality B lister in my opinion. Given his occupation and his cash advantage we can only hope that he will produce a lot of great adds...

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 01:25:15 PM PDT

  •  Passings (5+ / 0-)

    Legendary actor and former peer in the House of Lords, Richard Attenborough, died today at age 90. Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 02:04:53 PM PDT

  •  Another Walker scandal emerges (18+ / 0-)
    The board overseeing the state’s flagship job-creation agency has quietly approved a $6 million tax credit for Ashley Furniture Industries with a condition allowing the company to eliminate half of its state workforce.

    As approved by the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. board, the award would allow the Arcadia-based global furniture maker to move ahead with a $35 million expansion of its headquarters and keep 1,924 jobs in the state.

    But it wouldn’t require Ashley to create any new jobs, instead granting the company license to lay off half of its current 3,848 Wisconsin-based workers in exchange for an enterprise zone tax credit, one of the most valuable and coveted state subsidies.

    Link

    These type of scandals have legs and could be quite devastating to Walker far more than the John Doe stuff.

    •  It backs up the narrative (4+ / 0-)

      that Walker's corrupt. In 2006, we made a lot of headway with the slogan "culture of corruption", making the year not just a referendum on Bush but on all Republicans too. We should be applying that slogan to many of these governors who were ushered into office from the 2010 wave. A lot of them are as crooked as a corkscrew.

    •  That's a continuation of an ongoing scandal (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, MichaelNY

      The Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC), a corporate welfare agency in Wisconsin, has been a cesspool of corruption, cronyism, and mismanagement since not long after it was created by Scott Walker and the Republicans who run the Wisconsin Legislature.

      Among the things that the WEDC has done include:

      - Allowed staffers to use agency credit cards on alcoholic beverages and tickets to college football games
      - Gave tax breaks and other awards to companies that weren't eligible for it
      - Gave tax breaks and other awards to companies with no requirement to create jobs
      - Didn't verify financial information of companies that received awards
      - Hired an auditor that represented a firm that received tax credits and a grant from the WEDC

      Sadly, that's just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the corruption, cronyism, and mismanagement at the WEDC. Democrats have criticized Walker over this, but not to the extent that they should be, since it ties into the attacks against Walker's all-but-certain-to-be-broken "250,000 Wisconsin Jobs by January 2015" promise, whereas the stuff from both of the John Doe probes don't.

    •  I'm confused (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Is Ashley somehow tied to Walker personally? Did he or a close friend financially benefit? Otherwise how is this different than Solyndra?

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 04:13:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI Dem Convention: AG candidate Mark Totten (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, Jorge Harris, MichaelNY

    I wasn't there, but it seems that Gary Peters was declared to have given the best speech at the MIDem convention...that is until AG candidate Mark Totten spoke on Sunday.  I hope there is a video of this.  Some excerpts:

    Now let me close with a word to my opponent. Bill Schuette, you’ve said you’re running on your record. Bring it on. Because I’m absolutely convinced that if Michigan families know what you’ve done, they’ll never return you to office. You’ve put your career and partisan pursuits above real people like Dawn and April, and their kids. You’ve sacrificed the very people you’ve sworn to protect. You represent exactly what’s wrong with politics today. And my mission between now and November – with the help of my friends in this room and thousands across our state – is to fire you.
    Media reports say that with that last line, he just walked off the stage.  For some background, Dawn and April were the lesbian couple whose case brought down Michigan's same-sex marriage ban.

    No More Mikes: Eric Schertzing for Congress

    by MetroGnome on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 07:56:04 PM PDT

  •  MN Gov: SUSA poll (8+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    Dayton 49%
    Johnson 40%
    Nicollet 3%

    •  SUSA can't poll MN. (0+ / 0-)

      Sinbad on dodging sniper fire in Bosnia - "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go 'cause I might get shot so I'm going to send my wife...oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you.'"

      by askew on Sun Aug 24, 2014 at 11:05:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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