I just love kicking Tea Party Tom Corbett when he's down. And he's really down in the polls. Reminder, F&M's poll last week showed him trailing Wolf by double digits:A new poll from Robert Morris University Polling Institute shows Tom Wolf has a 30-point lead against Gov. Tom Corbett in the race for Pennsylvania governor.
The York Democrat has captured 55.5 percent support compared with Corbett's 24.7 percent in the RMU poll released Tuesday.
The poll of 500 Pennsylvania residents was conducted online between Aug. 18 and Aug. 22 with a margin of error of 4.5 percent. - Pittsburgh Business Journal, 9/2/14
And here's another kick in the groin for Corbett:A new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Corbett winning the support of just 24 percent of Pennsylvania voters. That's right, an incumbent … at 24 percent. That's just not something you see — like ever.
Now, that actually sounds a little worse than it is. F&M polling routinely has many more undecided voters than most polls (about one-quarter in this poll), which means Corbett is at just 24 percent but only trails by 25 points (only!), 49-24. That's not quite the same as being down 70-24 or something like that.
But that's still 25 points. And as we have written, it's pretty uncommon for a sitting governor to lose reelection, much less get swamped.
A look at the crosstabs shows just how bad it is for Corbett:
Among Republicans, he leads Wolf just 48-24.
Among single people, he trails 51-15.
Among moderates, he trails 59-13.
Among non-white voters, he trails 58-2. (And that includes a relatively significant amount of Hispanics.)
Forty percent of non-whites and 43 percent of Philadelphians are undecided. Those voters are quite simply not likely to vote for a Republican governor. For example, 86 percent of Philadelphians voted for Democrat Bob Casey in the 2012 Senate race.
While nationwide, Republicans are clearly more enthusiastic about the 2014 election, in Pennsylvania the Democrats are four points more likely to say they are certain to vote. - Washington Post, 8/26/14
That makes sense. Even the conservative National Review notes how Corbett has even lost his right wing base:The city of Pittsburgh hosts its annual Labor Day parade every year, but this year a major political figure has been left off the guest list.
Organizers of the event said they did not want Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett to march in the parade because he doesn’t support issues important to the Allegheny County Labor Council.
Corbett is scheduled to speak with members of the laborers union during a private event after the parade.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf was chosen lead Monday’s festivities.
The union representatives said Wolf embodies the parade's theme: fair wages for all workers. - WPXI, 9/1/14
If you want to read more about Corbett's downfall, please check out my post on Crooks & Liars to get an idea of how screwed he is:Time and time again, Corbett’s agenda was blocked by key Republicans in the legislature. His effort to pass school vouchers was whittled down to a measly $75 million increase in tax credits for private schools. His bid to finally privatize the state’s antiquated system of state liquor stores was thwarted. Ethics reform was dead on arrival. This year, Corbett lashed himself to the mast and vowed to steer public-employee pension reform to passage. “Sixty-two cents of every new dollar in revenue, goes to the pensions,” he told groups up and down the state. His proposal to change the pension plans for all new state and public-school employees ran aground when the GOP state house blocked it.
Corbett’s conservative allies urged him to press for “paycheck protection” — blocking the state from deducting union dues from state-worker paychecks — as the key to overriding union influence in the legislature. “Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and Michigan’s Rick Snyder have both demonstrated how union power can be curbed by ending the union-only deduction-for-politics privilege,” Matt Brouillette, president of the state’s conservative Commonwealth Foundation, told me.
But at a pro-reform meeting of the Associated Builders & Contractors of Pennsylvania this spring, Corbett gave “paycheck protection” only a passing reference in his speech. When pressed by a member of the audience, he mumbled, “I’ve told everyone, if you get that bill on my desk, I’ll sign it.” But he made no special lobbying effort for the measure, just as he allowed his political team to discourage primary challenges to pro-union GOP legislators in the 2012 midterm elections. Paycheck protection died this summer. “We took an internal GOP caucus vote, and we were a few votes short in the house,” atate representative Richard Saccone told me at an Independence Hall Association event in Philadelphia this July 4th. “The unions have powerful influence on a few of our members.”
Governor Corbett’s failure to either anticipate the intransigence of some of his GOP legislators or build outside pressure on them has been compounded by his retreat on the pledge he made in 2010 not to raise taxes or fees. Earlier this year, he angered conservatives when he raised a wholesale tax on gasoline as well as a bevy of motorist fees as part of a business-as-usual transportation bill. Unsurprisingly, he has declined to repeat his pledge this year. “We can imagine what that would mean in any second term under Corbett: higher taxes,” conservative activist Bob Guzzardi tells me. Guzzardi tried to run against Corbett in this year’s GOP primary, but his petitions were challenged by four Corbett supporters and he was thrown off the ballot. Despite Guzzardi’s lack of money, Corbett clearly perceived him as a threat. A Gravis Marketing poll in January of this year found that when GOP primary voters were asked if they wanted to reelect Corbett or go for a new GOP nominee, 41 percent plumped for a new candidate and only 38 percent stuck with Corbett. In a hypothetical matchup, Guzzardi trailed Corbett, 42 percent to 23 percent, with a full 35 percent undecided. - National Review, 8/31/14
And check out this great piece on Wolf from Philly Magazines. My good friend, Philadelphia photographer Colin Lenton, took the photo for this article and it looks great:
We are going to win this race but we have to be ready. Click here to donate and get involved with Wolf's campaign, State Senator Mike Stack's (D. PA) Lt. Governor campaign and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party so we can take back the State Senate: