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I just love this:

http://www.bizjournals.com/...

A new poll from Robert Morris University Polling Institute shows Tom Wolf has a 30-point lead against Gov. Tom Corbett in the race for Pennsylvania governor.

The York Democrat has captured 55.5 percent support compared with Corbett's 24.7 percent in the RMU poll released Tuesday.

The poll of 500 Pennsylvania residents was conducted online between Aug. 18 and Aug. 22 with a margin of error of 4.5 percent. - Pittsburgh Business Journal, 9/2/14

I just love kicking Tea Party Tom Corbett when he's down. And he's really down in the polls. Reminder, F&M's poll last week showed him trailing Wolf by double digits:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Corbett winning the support of just 24 percent of Pennsylvania voters. That's right, an incumbent … at 24 percent. That's just not something you see — like ever.

Now, that actually sounds a little worse than it is. F&M polling routinely has many more undecided voters than most polls (about one-quarter in this poll), which means Corbett is at just 24 percent but only trails by 25 points (only!), 49-24. That's not quite the same as being down 70-24 or something like that.

But that's still 25 points. And as we have written, it's pretty uncommon for a sitting governor to lose reelection, much less get swamped.

A look at the crosstabs shows just how bad it is for Corbett:

Among Republicans, he leads Wolf just 48-24.

Among single people, he trails 51-15.

Among moderates, he trails 59-13.

Among non-white voters, he trails 58-2. (And that includes a relatively significant amount of Hispanics.)

Forty percent of non-whites and 43 percent of Philadelphians are undecided. Those voters are quite simply not likely to vote for a Republican governor. For example, 86 percent of Philadelphians voted for Democrat Bob Casey in the 2012 Senate race.

While nationwide, Republicans are clearly more enthusiastic about the 2014 election, in Pennsylvania the Democrats are four points more likely to say they are certain to vote. - Washington Post, 8/26/14

And here's another kick in the groin for Corbett:

http://www.wpxi.com/...

The city of Pittsburgh hosts its annual Labor Day parade every year, but this year a major political figure has been left off the guest list.

Organizers of the event said they did not want Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett to march in the parade because he doesn’t support issues important to the Allegheny County Labor Council.

Corbett is scheduled to speak with members of the laborers union during a private event after the parade.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf was chosen lead Monday’s festivities.

The union representatives said Wolf embodies the parade's theme: fair wages for all workers. - WPXI, 9/1/14

That makes sense. Even the conservative National Review notes how Corbett has even lost his right wing base:

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Time and time again, Corbett’s agenda was blocked by key Republicans in the legislature. His effort to pass school vouchers was whittled down to a measly $75 million increase in tax credits for private schools. His bid to finally privatize the state’s antiquated system of state liquor stores was thwarted. Ethics reform was dead on arrival. This year, Corbett lashed himself to the mast and vowed to steer public-employee pension reform to passage. “Sixty-two cents of every new dollar in revenue, goes to the pensions,” he told groups up and down the state. His proposal to change the pension plans for all new state and public-school employees ran aground when the GOP state house blocked it.

Corbett’s conservative allies urged him to press for “paycheck protection” — blocking the state from deducting union dues from state-worker paychecks — as the key to overriding union influence in the legislature. “Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and Michigan’s Rick Snyder have both demonstrated how union power can be curbed by ending the union-only deduction-for-politics privilege,” Matt Brouillette, president of the state’s conservative Commonwealth Foundation, told me.

But at a pro-reform meeting of the Associated Builders & Contractors of Pennsylvania this spring, Corbett gave “paycheck protection” only a passing reference in his speech. When pressed by a member of the audience, he mumbled, “I’ve told everyone, if you get that bill on my desk, I’ll sign it.” But he made no special lobbying effort for the measure, just as he allowed his political team to discourage primary challenges to pro-union GOP legislators in the 2012 midterm elections. Paycheck protection died this summer. “We took an internal GOP caucus vote, and we were a few votes short in the house,” atate representative Richard Saccone told me at an Independence Hall Association event in Philadelphia this July 4th. “The unions have powerful influence on a few of our members.”

Governor Corbett’s failure to either anticipate the intransigence of some of his GOP legislators or build outside pressure on them has been compounded by his retreat on the pledge he made in 2010 not to raise taxes or fees. Earlier this year, he angered conservatives when he raised a wholesale tax on gasoline as well as a bevy of motorist fees as part of a business-as-usual transportation bill. Unsurprisingly, he has declined to repeat his pledge this year. “We can imagine what that would mean in any second term under Corbett: higher taxes,” conservative activist Bob Guzzardi tells me. Guzzardi tried to run against Corbett in this year’s GOP primary, but his petitions were challenged by four Corbett supporters and he was thrown off the ballot. Despite Guzzardi’s lack of money, Corbett clearly perceived him as a threat. A Gravis Marketing poll in January of this year found that when GOP primary voters were asked if they wanted to reelect Corbett or go for a new GOP nominee, 41 percent plumped for a new candidate and only 38 percent stuck with Corbett. In a hypothetical matchup, Guzzardi trailed Corbett, 42 percent to 23 percent, with a full 35 percent undecided. - National Review, 8/31/14

If you want to read more about Corbett's downfall, please check out my post on Crooks & Liars to get an idea of how screwed he is:

http://crooksandliars.com/...

And check out this great piece on Wolf from Philly Magazines. My good friend, Philadelphia photographer Colin Lenton, took the photo for this article and it looks great:

http://www.phillymag.com/...

We are going to win this race but we have to be ready. Click here to donate and get involved with Wolf's campaign, State Senator Mike Stack's (D. PA) Lt. Governor campaign and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party so we can take back the State Senate:

http://www.wolfforpa.com/
http://www.stackforpa.com/
http://www.padems.com/

Originally posted to pdc on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 12:57 PM PDT.

Also republished by DKos Southeastern Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh Area Kossacks, Philly Kos, DKos Pennsylvania, In Support of Labor and Unions, and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 12:57:53 PM PDT

  •  Wish we could get results like that nationally.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GAKeynesian, d3clark, Mostel26

    Wish we could get results like that nationally. ...

  •  it's too bad the state AFL-CIO endorsed GOP candid (5+ / 0-)

    candidates for reelection in many key state Senate races.  

    This November there will be union phone banks calling voters to ask them to vote for Dem Tom Wolf for Governor and Republican state Senator X for state Senate.

    Reminds me of being at a union phone bank in the 1992 election and the union guys were asking voters they called to vote for Bill Clinton for President and Republican Arlen Specter for U.S. Senate.  [The others of us in the phone bank room - those of us who were Democrats but not union members of that union - were asking the people WE called all day to vote for Bill Clinton for President and Lynn Yeakel for U.S. Senate.]

    Specter barely beat Yeakel in November 1992.  If the old men who ran the PA AFL-CIO had endorsed Lynn Yeakel in 1992, she would have won and we would have had a Democratic Senator for the last 22 years in that seat - instead of Republican Specter followed by Republican Toomey (except for the brief period Specter claimed he was a Democrat).

    •  I get what you're saying but Specter was never an (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26

      anti-union Republican. He was smart enough not to fuck with them. Plus I will give Specter credit for bringing in money for PA and his seniority gave him a lot of power. That's why Dem voters would re-elect him. WHile his party switch was appreciated, it came too little too late. Had he done it in 2006 like Rendell was begging him to do, Specter may have held on and maintained his chairmanships.

      Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

      by poopdogcomedy on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 01:29:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  but he was wrong on so many other issues (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        T Maysle, d3clark, paulex

        and except for a handful of roll call votes out of thousands he cast during his 32 years in the Senate, he was a reliable Republican vote.

        He also went to Florida in the 2000 election to spend time among the many Jewish voters there asking them to vote for Bush/Cheney instead of Gore/Lieberman.  He stumped for Bush among the large complexes of Jewish voters there.  I was proud to work against the reelection of snarlin Arlen every time he ran.

  •  Will it translate to down-ballot Dem wins? n/t (5+ / 0-)
    •  It certainly could. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terranova108, Mostel26, paulex

      The 2010 redistricting gerrymander has given the GOP a 13-5 margin in the US Congress.  But the consequence is that many of the districts have a shallow Republican lean.
      Charlie Cook's district rankings show an R+1, (3) R+2 and one R+4 districts. All are potentially vulnerable to a modest Dem tide.
      I am not from PA so I really can't speak to the individual races.

      Hopefully the same applies to the PA statehouses as well.

  •  Barely 25 points outside the MOE. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GAKeynesian, Mostel26, paulex
    •  Sounds like a tight race to me. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      antooo, Mostel26

      We gonna get some Rove attention on this race? Is he gonna spin the numbers on election night? "Oh I know he's down 30 points now, but this county hasn't reported in." "Karl, that count reported. He's now 40 down." "He's still gonna win."

  •  Really, Washington Post? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    T Maysle, Mostel26
    While nationwide, Republicans are clearly more enthusiastic about the 2014 election, in Pennsylvania the Democrats are four points more likely to say they are certain to vote.
    It's not that clear to me!
  •  Let us hope the divisive GOP, Tea-Kochers will all (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mostel26

    be sent packing.

  •  Is the PA GOP panicking yet? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mostel26

    These numbers are nightmarish. Corbett's going down and who knows how many other Republicans in the state he may take with him.

    •  I think they know this race is lost. Corbett's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26, paulex

      been a dick even to his own party so they're just going to take this loss and wait until 2018 and probably focus heavily on 2016 on both trying to steal PA for whoever the GOP presidential nominee is. Not to mention they have Tea Party Senator Pat Toomey (R. PA) to defend in 2016. Even the Pennsylvania Democratic Party is getting a head start in going after Toomey.

      Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

      by poopdogcomedy on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 03:46:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sestak is going to destroy Toomey (0+ / 0-)

        I can't see the GOP having much success in 2016. They'd just be throwing money in the trash backing up Toomey in a year when PA will be passing 20 electoral votes along to a Democratic Presidential nominee.

        2018 might be a better year for Republicans, but I doubt they'll get a 2010 again. Plus I'm willing to bet that Wolf finds enough rational Rs to get a few things passed even if he's facing R control of both chambers.

        And dare to dream that Wolf wins a 2nd terms and compels the legislature to redistrict in a fair manner in 2021.

  •  I think they've gone beyond panic and entered (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mostel26

    a coma.  Their website is attacking Wolf but has little to say about polls.  They seem hard pressed to come up with much good to say about Corbett.   And their writing is a little garbled: "Check out Governor Tom Corbett’s new TV ad about how electing Tom Wolf would Barack Obama and Ed Rendell’s third term."  I'm not sure what they're trying to say there.  Maybe they're just trying to link Wolf to Obama the Bad.  

    A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

    by d3clark on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 03:32:44 PM PDT

  •  Can a blowout like this translate to HOUSE pickups (0+ / 0-)

    I have been posting a bit about how I think we can take back the House, based on an October push on economic and women's issues.

    With a blowout like this in PA, might we pick up a few seats the Republican's currently hold?

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