New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo
Voters in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island go to the polls Tuesday for our final primary night of 2014. New York will also hold a primary for state-level contests. (Federal primaries were held back in June. This dual primary structure makes sense to basically nobody but the Republican state Senate leadership.) Delaware is also holding its primary, but there are no notable statewide or federal races to watch there.
Below is our guide to the key races in each state. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 7:00 PM ET when polls begin to close.
• NY-Gov (D): Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo is very unlikely to actually lose his primary, but there is a lot at stake for him on Tuesday. Cuomo faces a challenge from law professor Zephyr Teachout, who is running at him from the left. Teachout has gotten some useful endorsements but faces long odds in actually overcoming Cuomo's name recognition and structural advantages.
However, Cuomo's team is reportedly afraid that Teachout could do well enough to embarrass the governor and damage his national ambitions. The general consensus seems to be that if Cuomo wins with less than 70 percent of the vote, he'll attract a good deal of unwanted questions about his weakness with the party base. Cuomo is expected to have little trouble in November against Republican Rob Astorino.
• NY-LG (D): In New York, the governor and lieutenant governor candidates run in separate primaries but are shackled together on one ticket in the general election. While the office of lieutenant governor has little actual power, this year the contest has major implications.
Cuomo's pick for lieutenant governor is Kathy Hochul, a former congresswoman from the Buffalo area who had a conservative voting record. Hochul faces a challenge from the left from law school professor Tim Wu, who has the backing of both the New York Times and Daily Kos. Neither candidate is well-known statewide, and this race is much more uncertain than the gubernatorial contest. Cuomo's team is working hard to put Hochul over the top, but there is a real possibility she could fall short.
A Wu victory would have real consequences. It would represent a major embarrassment for Cuomo and could do real damage to the smaller parties that have already nominated Cuomo and Hochul. It's also possible that Cuomo could leave office early, especially due to an ongoing ethics investigation, handing the governorship to either Wu or Hochul. This is a very unpredictable race, and both Cuomo's allies and his detractors will be watching it closely.
Head over the fold for a look at the rest of the night's races.
• NY Senate (D): On paper, Democrats have a majority in the state Senate. However, five Democrats have formed the "Independent Democratic Conference" and allied with the Republicans (a sixth nominal Democrat outright caucuses with the GOP), while two more Democrats are unwelcome in either party's caucus due to corruption charges. The IDC has made some vague statements about rejoining the Democratic caucus after the November election but there's no reason to take them at their word.
Two mainstream Democrats are challenging IDC members. In Queen's SD-11, state Sen. Tony Avella faces former New York City Comptroller John Liu. In SD-34, which mostly consists of the Bronx, IDC leader Jeff Klein is being challenged by city Councilor Oliver Koppell. Both Liu and Koppell are endorsed by Daily Kos.
Both caucus-less Democrats (or as we're fond of calling them, corruptocrats), also face serious primary challengers. In Queen's SD-14, Sen. Malcolm Smith faces two challengers, with city Councilor Leroy Comrie looking like his most credible foe. In Brooklyn's SD-19, Sen. John Sampson has three opponents: His main rival looks like former SEIU staffer Dell Smitherman. All four seats are safely blue.
• MA-Gov (D): Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick is retiring, and three Democrats are running to succeed him. Attorney General Martha Coakley has posted clear and consistent leads over her challengers, state Treasurer Steve Grossman and former U.S. Medicare/Medicaid Administrator Don Berwick. Coakley's career took a major hit in 2010 when she lost a special election for U.S. Senate to Republican Scott Brown (who is also on the ballot Tuesday, albeit in another state). However, it appears that Coakley has put her problems behind her and has emerged as the clear frontrunner. The Democratic nominee will start out the favorite against Republican Charlie Baker, who faces minimal primary opposition.
• MA-06 (D): Democratic Rep. John Tierney has not had an easy few years. His troubles started in 2010, after his wife plead guilty for doctoring her brother's taxes. While Tierney was not involved in the matter, it almost cost him his Democratic-leaning Salem-area seat in the 2012 general election. This time Tierney faces a credible primary challenge from veteran Seth Moulton. Both sides have spent heavily and the contest has gotten negative: Moulton is portraying Tierney as ineffective and unethical, while Tierney is depicting Moulton as a conservative. Three polls have been released in the last few days, and they each show a very tight race. The winner will face Republican Richard Tisei, who came very close to beating Tierney in 2012.
• NH-Sen (R): Three notable Republicans are lining up to take on Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The likely nominee is former Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, who moved into the state last year to run. Brown faces former Sen. Bob Smith, who was unseated in his 2002 primary (and was last seen running for the U.S. Senate in Florida before coming home). Former state Sen. Jim Rubens, who unlike his primary opponents has only run for office in one state, is also in the mix. Rubens has gotten extensive support from Lawrence Lessig's Mayday PAC, but it's hard to see either him or Smith defeating Brown here. There isn't much recent polling but Brown has consistently led in the primary and it would be a major surprise if he fell short on Tuesday.
• NH-Gov (R): Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan is not a top-tier Republican target, but two notable Republicans are hoping to take her on. Businessman Walt Havenstein is the establishment favorite and has been a far better fundraiser than activist Andrew Hemingway. However, Havenstein has earned some bad headlines over his residency in Maryland: Havenstein previously claimed tax-credits as a Maryland homeowner, and was embarrassed when the Old Line State asked for its money back during the campaign.
• NH-01 (R): Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is a top GOP target in her very competitive district, and two credible Republicans are running here. Former Rep. Frank Guinta is hoping to get another shot at Shea-Porter; Guinta unseated her in 2010 before losing to her in their 2012 rematch. First though, Guinta must get past former University of New Hampshire Business School Dean Dan Innis. Both Guinta and Innis have spent comparable amounts of money in the homestretch of the race, but Innis has received extensive support from American Unity PAC, a group dedicated to electing pro same-sex marriage Republicans.
• NH-02 (R): Republicans are expected to target Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in this light blue but swingy seat. State Rep. Marilinda Garcia has attracted a good deal of attention from the national party and has received help from the Club for Growth. Garcia's main primary foe is former state Sen. Gary Lambert. While Lambert has outspent Garcia, he has been hit hard by the Club for Growth's ads against him, and that could make all the difference here.
• RI-Gov (D & R): Both parties have competitive races here. On the Democratic side, we have a three-way match between Treasurer Gina Raimondo, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, and former Obama Administration official Clay Pell. Taveras has attacked Raimondo as an economic conservative and portrayed Pell as inexperienced. Raimondo has defended her Democratic bona fides and hit Taveras for problems in Providence, while largely ignoring Pell. Pell, the grandson of the late Sen. Claiborne Pell, has stayed positive and emphasized education and infrastructure. There has been very little polling here, and this race looks up in the air.
On the GOP side, businessman Ken Block (who ran for governor in 2010 as a member of the Moderate Party) faces Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Fung has been emphasizing his conservatism while portraying Block as a liberal; Block has been attacking government waste. Rhode Island has not been afraid to elect Republican governors in the past, but either Fung or Block would start out as the underdog in general.
Other statewide races:
In Massachusetts, Democrats will be competing in open seat races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and state treasurer. The governor and lieutenant governor candidates run in separate primaries but run on one ticket in November.
In Rhode Island, there are open seat races for lieutenant governor, state treasurer, and secretary of state. The governor and lieutenant governor positions are nominated and elected separately in Rhode Island.
The treasurer race notably features a battle between former Treasurer and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Frank Caprio and investment fund manager Seth Magaziner. Caprio came in third in the gubernatorial race, and got some bad headlines when he told President Obama to "take his endorsement and really shove it," after Obama refused to endorse him. Magaziner is backed by Bill Clinton, and looks like he has the edge here.