I started looking into this a little more seriously after reading this:
President Obama warns Ebola virus could mutate if epidemic not contained soon by HoundDog
Why is this suddenly a concern?
The first serious discussion I found was off the BBC News site, a comment to the effect that:
Here forever
But there are is also a fear being raised by some virologists that Ebola may never be contained.
Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, describes the situation as "desperate".
His concern is that the virus is being given its first major opportunity to adapt to thrive in people, due to the large number of human-to-human transmissions of the virus during this outbreak of unprecedented scale.
(... more ... )
Because Ebola has not been contained, new infections are increasing exponentially, due to lack of resources and the fact that the outbreak is not geographically isolated like previous ones, in remote villages. MSF (Doctors Without Borders), from the same article, has a facility with 160 beds, but urgently needs 800 more. Why is this a public health issue, and not just a tragedy for the dying? Because those 800 beds are needed for people with Ebola, who, when turned away, have no other choice but to return to their communities and continue to infect more people. Apparently, Liberian taxis are a hotspot of transmission.
This is progressing beyond a simple (if massive) human tragedy into a risk for a true pandemic, with potentially numerous cases popping up all over the world (not that we can't contain them here in North America or in Europe, but there would still be panic). The lack of resources to combat this disease could end up costing the West far more than what it would cost now to supply the necessary personnel, gear and money to fight the disease while it might still be contained. This is a far greater threat to world order than 'terrorism'.
More from the article:
End game?
It is also unclear when this outbreak will be over.
Officially the World Health Organization is saying the outbreak can be contained in six to nine months. But that is based on getting the resources to tackle the outbreak, which are currently stretched too thinly to contain Ebola as it stands.
There have been nearly 4,000 cases so far, cases are increasing exponentially and there is a potentially vulnerable population in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea in excess of 20 million.
We know that the current outbreak in West Africa is genetically different from (mutated from) the Zaire strain. We also know that it affects different species in different ways, as for example pigs develop symptoms in their airways and end up expelling large amounts of fluids into the air. As the human population with the virus grows into the tens of thousands (or higher), the virus itself cannot fail to mutate more; these human cases are also a potential source of infection for domestic and wild animals that are susceptible to the virus, of which there are many. It's a numbers game. Once the virus has a large enough pool of infected organisms, it can no longer be stopped.
Yes there is hope for treatment, and a vaccine. But that won't eradicate the virus, or prevent far too many people from dying of it, if we do not step up now with the needed help to contain it while that is still possible.
One last quote from prof. Ball:
But like HIV and influenza, Ebola's genetic code is a strand of RNA. Think of RNA as the less stable cousin of DNA, which is where we keep our genetic information.
It means Ebola virus has a high rate of mutation and with mutation comes the possibility of adapting.
Prof Ball argues: "It is increasing exponentially and the fatality rate seems to be decreasing, but why?
"Is it better medical care, earlier intervention or is the virus adapting to humans and becoming less pathogenic? As a virologist that's what I think is happening."
There is a relationship between how deadly a virus is and how easily it spreads. Generally speaking if a virus is less likely to kill you, then you are more likely to spread it - although smallpox was a notable exception.
Prof Ball said "it really wouldn't surprise me" if Ebola adapted, the death rate fell to around 5% and the outbreak never really ended.
I encourage everyone to
read the article in full, and to step up pressure domestically to keep this from being an 'African' problem, or 'no big deal'. It is a big deal, and we aren't doing enough about it.