Big news today out of Michigan from PPP:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's newest Michigan poll finds Gary Peters matching his largest lead ever, which he had last October during the middle of the government shutdown. Peters is at 43% to 36% for Terri Lynn Land with third party candidates combining for 7%. The story of the race is Land's continually declining favorability. She has dropped a net 28 points since December, from starting out at +11 (34/23) to falling all the way down now to -17 (32/49). Michigan is a Democratic state to begin with, and Peters is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while only 5% of Democrats say they're going to vote for Land. Voters remain pretty ambivalent toward Peters himself- 35% have a favorable view of him to 36% with an unfavorable one. But with Land extremely unpopular, he continues to be in good shape. One issue playing to Peters' considerable advantage is the minimum wage- voters support increasing it to $10 an hour by a 58/34 spread.
It continues to look more and more like the action in Michigan will be in the Governor's race. Rick Snyder is at 43% to 42% for Mark Schauer with third party candidates combining for 6%. Snyder continues to be unpopular with only 43% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. Schauer's name recognition has increased from 51% to 68% over the last couple months but there hasn't been much change in the close divide on his favorability- 35% of voters see him positively, 33% in a negative light.
Snyder finds himself in trouble after winning by an overwhelming margin in 2010 because several of his major accomplishments have proven to be very unpopular. Voters say by a 48/36 margin that they would vote to repeal the right to work law if it was on the ballot. And they oppose the increase in pension taxes that's been highlighted in early campaign ads by a 74/17 spread. One thing that may be helping to keep Snyder afloat is the popularity of Medicaid expansion in the state- five months after it took effect voters support the 'Healthy Michigan' program by 24 points, 50/26. That's one issue where Snyder is winning some favor across party lines.
The down ballot offices in the state look like they have the potential to be competitive as well. The Attorney General's race between Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat Mark Totten is tied at 36% with third party candidates combining for 10% right now and 18% of voters still undecided. Incumbent Republican Ruth Johnson has just a slight 39/36 advantage over Democratic challenger Godfrey Dillard for Secretary of State with third party candidates combining for 7% and 18% undecided there as well. - PPP, 9/9/14
Here's a little more info on why Land trails badly with female voters:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Months after Republican U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land (MI) aired an ad arguing she isn't waging a war against women because she's a woman, a new poll out from Public Policy Polling finds Land trailing Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI) among women by 14 points.
The poll found that, broken down by gender, 45 percent of women polled said they had a favorable view of Peters while 31 percent said they had a favorable view of Land. Among men 42 percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable view of Land while 41 percent said they had a favorable view of Peters.
Far more women said they have an unfavorable opinion of her than those who had a favorable opinion of her. The poll found that 50 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of her while 28 percent said they have a favorable opinion of her. A remaining 19 percent said they were unsure. By contrast, 31 percent of women said they had an unfavorable opinion of Peters while 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of her. Another 35 percent said they weren't sure. - TPM, 9/9/14
PPP has Peters leading Land 43/36. The poll was conducted Sept. 4 and 7 among 687 likely voters. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Full results are coming soon. And by the way, Democrats are back up on the air hitting Land on this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Koch Carbon, a subsidiary of Koch Industries, took heat last year when piles of pet coke, a byproduct of oil refining, produced large clouds of dark dust over Detroit.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's new ad points to the residual clouds and the "dark money" it says the Koch brothers have spent attacking Land's opponent, Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Lynn and Peters are vying to replace retiring Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.).
"Their giant piles of illegally-stored pet coke threatened the health of Michigan residents, and now they're out to contaminate our elections," the narrator says. "Using their dirty profits to prop up Terri Lynn Land, they've already spent millions attacking Land's opponent, a cloud of dark money."
The ad will run statewide. - Huffington Post, 9/9/14
Schauer is doing well not only because of Snyder's unpopular policies, he's also uniting Democratic voters:
http://www.mlive.com/...
Mark Schauer and Michigan Democrats gathered on Monday to get fired up and ready for November's vote — now fewer than two months away.
Schauer, the Democratic candidate for governor, chastised Republican Gov. Rick Snyder as a "tough nerd" who has been tough on all the wrong people.
"This governor, even by his own admission and his new TV ad, is acknowledging that the middle class in Michigan is not experiencing any kind of comeback and asks them to rehire him for four more years, and then maybe they will feel it," Schauer said.
"His policies aren't working, and people know that."
Schauer, speaking at the region's UAW headquarters early Monday, Sept. 8, stood at a podium emblazoned with the word "solidarity" -- the party's election theme.
Schauer was joined by local and statewide democratic candidates hoping to pull off a November upset. In the gubernatorial race, there's an opportunity: Real Clear Politics reduces Snyder's lead to about one point on average, compared to as much as 9 percentage points earlier in the year. - MLive, 9/8/14
And here's a clear sign the GOP is nervous:
http://www.mlive.com/...
Former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis, accusing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer of “class warfare,” is starting to throw some “bombs” of his own at the campaign.
Anuzis, speaking with reporters on Monday afternoon in Lansing, blasted Schauer for using a portion of his public financing from the state to pay for a charter flight, an expensive restaurant and a hotel on Nantucket Island.
The Schauer campaign was quick to defend the expenditures, but Anuzis argued the Democrat has been “living the life of the rich and famous” at the same time he’s been accusing Republican Gov. Rick Snyder of enacting policies to benefit the wealthy.
“Mark Schauer in his campaign, virtually every week, is playing the class warfare card,” said Anuzis, who now heads up Coast to Coast Strategies, a national public affairs firm based in Washington D.C.
“He’s trying to make it us versus them. It’s the rich people against the average guy. It’s the business class guy against the working class guy. Well, how many working class guys are flying around in Lear jets and spending $1,400 in Washington D.C. and hanging out in Nantucket?”
The Schauer campaign said the candidate didn’t use the plane at all. Instead, a staffer said the $1,680 charter flight brought Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley to Michigan for a campaign event.
The $1,426 bill for Bobby Van’s restaurant in D.C. was to cater a fundraiser, according to the campaign, which said it spent around $2,400 total for Schauer and a staffer to spend three nights in separate hotel rooms on Nantucket Island during a Democratic Governors Association conference.
"It’s clear Snyder is getting desperate when he drags out former Republican chairman Saul Anuzis to do his dirty work,” said Schauer spokeswoman Cathy Bacille Cunningham, noting that the governor attended a series of evening fundraisers in the Upper Peninsula last month after flying there for state business. - MLive, 9/8/14
It's clear we are going to win the U.S. Senate seat and the Governor race, Attorney General race and the Secretary of State race are all up for grabs. We can win all these races as long as our base comes out to the polls. Click here to contribute and get involved with Peters', Schauer's, Totten's and Dillard's campaigns:
http://www.petersformichigan.com/...
http://markschauer.com/
http://www.marktotten.com/
http://godfreydillard.com/...