The plotting, planning and scheming over the bloody cauldron in the Middle East is revolving around the catchy phrase boots on the ground. Lots of countries seem willing to offer philosophical support and some even air support, but almost nobody is making hard and fast commitments of troops to go and get shot at. The people who have the boots on the ground and are having success at recruiting more are ISIS.
CIA: As Many as 31,000 Islamic State Fighters in Iraq, Syria
U.S. intelligence says the Islamic State militant group has between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters on the ground in Iraq and Syria.
A Central Intelligence Agency spokesman said Thursday this is much higher than the previous estimate of 10,000.
He says the new estimate reflects stronger recruitment by the Islamic State since June following success on the battlefield and the declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria.
The Guardian has a decidedly pessimistic analysis of the prospects for Obama's coalition coming up with reliable troops to stand up to ISIS on the ground.
Isis offensive: Obama puts faith in allies with little proof of their worth US president's partners in battle against militants in Iraq and Syria have previously failed to stand up when tested
After securing broad regional support for his coalition against Islamic State (Isis) Barack Obama is now turning to the second part of his strategy: empowering proxies on the ground who – in theory – will finish what air strikes started.
The US president's plan, though, invests immense faith in partners and would-be allies that have done little to display their worth in alliances that are, in many cases, at least a decade old. Of all the US-backed armies or rebel groups in the region, only a few have stood up when tested – and none of them recently.
The best armed and trained of them all, the Iraqi military, surrendered northern Iraq – and all of its arsenals – in less than 48 hours in mid-June, which is the main reason Obama is scrambling to take on a battle-ready Isis now.
The rout of the Iraqi army was one of the most extraordinary in modern military history. Five divisions numbering roughly 120,000 soldiers and officers fled as the jihadis advanced towards Mosul, Tikrit and Kirkuk, changing the face of the modern Middle East and posing a serious threat to states from the Levant to the Gulf and well beyond.
In August, the Isis rampage turned north towards the notional Kurdish capital of Irbil, where another US-trained ally – the Kurdish peshmerga forces – also rapidly retreated, leaving half a million Yazidis and Christians to fend for themselves.
"This is a big, big stretch," said a senior US official who was in Iraq at the time of the awakening. "Nothing I have seen inspires confidence that our new friends can get things done, especially when the old (friends) failed so miserably."
Right now the people running around on the ground in Iraq, other than the well coordinated ISIS forces, are Iraqis and some Iranians. They have always had major sectarian and nationalistic divisions. The threat of a common enemy has not so far done much to bridge those divisions and create a unified fighting force. US military advisers may be able to provide some technical advice but they have no ability to impose the necessary command and control. In Kerry's discussions with his new best bud Arab allies there doesn't seem to be any mention of their actually providing any boots. It seems like we have been here before.
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I just picked up a new news item. Kerry is explicitly excluding Iran from participation in any coalition.
Kerry Says No to Iran's Help Against Islamic Group
Even as it discouraged Iran from joining diplomatic talks on how to defeat the Islamic State militant group, the United States could not outline Friday what other nations have volunteered to contribute to a worldwide effort against the insurgency that has overtaken a third of Iraq and Syria and threatens to upend the Mideast.
Secretary of State John Kerry, in Turkey to press its leaders on hardening its borders against extremist traffic and funding, said it's not appropriate for Iran to be at the discussions, given its support for the very government in Syria whose brutality helped fuel the Islamic State group.
But after more than a week of meetings with top NATO and Mideast officials, Kerry refused to say precisely how a global campaign that is being pieced together by the U.S. would succeed in destroying the Sunni extremist movement that some believe is even more dangerous than al-Qaida. France has said it wants Iran to participate.
Kerry said "no one has called me and asked me" whether France should invite Iran to the diplomatic talks set for Monday in Paris on helping Iraq fight off the Islamic State group. The militancy is among Sunni rebels groups that have battled for three years Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is surviving in part with Iran's help.
"Under the circumstances, at this moment in time, it would not be right for number of reasons," Kerry said. "It would not be appropriate, given the many other issues that are on the table with respect to their engagement in Syria and elsewhere."
I guess he got the word that Israel was not well pleased. This excludes the only people outside Iraq who were actually providing some boots. Of course the problem is that there are already Iranian forces operating in Iraq. They may find it difficult to get them to go home.