Pennsylvania State Senate
While Pennsylvania has proven to be stubbornly Democratic in presidential contests, its state legislature is another story entirely. Republicans have held the State Senate since 1994; the State House has been a little more volatile, but Republicans have controlled it for most of the last 20 years. Even in 2012, when Democrats won the statewide popular vote in the legislature, the GOP still emerged with solid majorities in both houses.
In 2012, Republicans used their complete control of the state government to draw up a favorable state House, state Senate, and Congressional map. Due to a court delay, the new legislative maps will be used for the first time in 2014, and will be redrawn for the 2022 elections. Democrats are hoping that Republican Gov. Tom Corbett's considerable unpopularity will give them the chance to make major gains in both chambers, and perhaps flip the Senate. However, Republicans have ensured this won't be easy.
What follows is a look at Pennsylvania's new legislative districts using newly released data from Daily Kos Elections' President-by-Legislative District project. You can find a master list of all our state data here. You can take a look at how each state House, state Senate, and congressional district voted in each 2012 partisan statewide contest here (since these are new districts, we have not assigned any legislatures to the seats).
The interactive maps were created by Stephen Wolf. You can find links to all of Stephen's previously released maps here, which you may want to bookmark. In all of Stephen's maps, districts in solid blue were carried by Obama and are represented by a Democrat, while those in solid red were won by Mitt Romney and are held by a Republican. Lighter red districts voted for Obama and a Republican legislator while those in lighter blue went for Romney and a Democratic legislator. Districts in gray were newly created by redistricting and don't have an incumbent assigned to them. Note that the map displays use only the two-party vote to give you a more equivalent comparison between presidential and legislative results, but this post and Daily Kos Elections numbers include totals for third-party candidates. In any case, the differences are minor.
Head below the fold for a look at both parties' targets in the Pennsylvania Senate, as well as a look at the state House.
State Senate Overview:
Barack Obama carried Pennsylvania 52-47, but Mitt Romney took 27 of the 50 state Senate districts. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew the map: The median district in the state Senate voted for Romney 51-48, making it eight points more Republican than the state. Four Senate Democrats sit in Romney seats, while five Senate Republicans hold Obama districts.
Half of the Senate is up each cycle. Even-numbered seats will up in 2014, and odd-numbered districts will be up in 2016. Democrats hold a 13-12 edge in the Senate seats that aren't up until 2016, meaning that they need to win 12 of the 25 Senate seats up this year to take the 25-25 tie they need. Unfortunately, Romney won 14 of these seats. Democrats will also start out with one automatic loss. Democratic Sen. Jim Ferlo's Western Pennsylvania seat was destroyed by redistricting, and he decided to retire. Republican Sen. Randy Vulakovich is running unopposed here.
State Senate Democratic 2014 Defenses:
If Democrats want to flip the chamber, their first order of business in 2014 will be holding onto SD-32 and SD-46, two heavily Republican seats in Western Pennsylvania. SD-32, based around Fayette and Somerset Counties (with a little bit of Westmoreland included) is an open seat that voted for Romney by a brutal 59-39 margin.
This ancestrally blue seat hasn't been too kind to other Pennsylvania Democrats either. Sen. Bob Casey won 54-45 statewide, but lost SD-32 54-44; successful statewide Democratic candidates for auditor and treasurer also lost it. Democrat Kathleen Kane did take it by seven points as she was winning the attorney general contest 56-42 statewide, so the area hasn't completely abandoned Democrats. Team Blue is fielding state Rep. Deberah Kula, while Republicans have nominated businessman Patrick Stefano.
SD-46 is a bit less hostile to Democrats. The district, which includes all of Greene County and parts of Beaver and Washington, voted for Romney 53-45. However, Casey was able to pull off a narrow 50-48 here, and Kane took it 55-42. The seat narrowly voted for Democratic in the auditor's contest and narrowly went red in the treasurer's race. State Sen. Timothy Solobay will be defending the seat from Republican businesswoman Camera Bartolotta.
State Senate Republican 2014 Defenses:
Of the five Republicans in Obama seats (all of them located in the eastern part of the state), four of them are up in 2014. Three of them are running again and despite Corbett's massive unpopularity, it's not going to be easy for Democrats to win.
The open SD-26 seat is expected to be a major battleground, and perhaps the Democrats' best pickup opportunity in the chamber. The district, which mostly consists of Delaware County with a small portion of Chester included, voted for Obama 56-43 and backed the Democrats in the other four statewide races. The Democrats are running union leader John Kane, while Team Red is fielding Delaware Country Council Chair Thomas McGarrigle. Both sides are spending heavily here and this is expected to be competitive to the end.
The three Republican incumbents in Obama seats look like they're in better shape. State Sen. Robert Tomlinson holds SD-06, which is based entirely in Bucks County. The district voted 54-45 for Obama and went for the other four statewide Democrats. However, Tomlinson is seen as a formidable candidate. The Democratic nominee here is Northampton Township Supervisor Kimberly Yeager-Rose. Democrats are eying this seat for a pickup, but the general consensus at this point is that Tomlinson is favored.
The other two Obama Republicans look like they're in good shape. Stewart Greenleaf represents SD-12 in Bucks and Montgomery Counties: Obama narrowly won 50-49 here. Pat Browne holds Lehigh County's SD-16, which voted for Obama 53-46. Both Democratic candidates have been disappointing fundraisers and look like serious longshots here.
Democrats are aiming for one Romney seat, SD-40. This seat, which includes parts of Monroe and Northampton Counties, was created by redistricting and has no incumbent. The district backed Romney 50-49 but went for Casey 51-48. The Democratic candidate is attorney Mark Aurand, and he faces Republican state Rep. Mario Scavello.
2014 Senate Bottom Line:
Assuming there are no surprises, Democrats are all but assured to win seven Senate seats while the GOP should have no problem in 12 seats (including Greenleaf and Browne). For Democrats to take the 25-25 tie they need to take control (it's all but impossible to imagine a scenario where Corbett wins re-election at the same time as Democrats win all these seats) they need to win all five competitive seats. Democrats will need to hold SD-32 and SD-46, take the open SD-26 and SD-40, and knock off Robert Tomlinson in SD-06. Team Blue has no room for error here.
2016 Senate targets:
If Democrats fall short in 2014, they can't count on a better playing field in 2016 to put them over the top. Only one Republican will be up for re-election in an Obama seat and Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi will not be easy to dislodge. Democrats will also need to defend SD-35 and SD-37, two more Western Pennsylvania seats that voted for Romney. Democrats may be able to make a play for the GOP-held SD-15 around Harrisburg, which Romney won by only 25 votes. Lancaster County's SD-13 may also be a Democratic target, but at 53-46 Romney it won't be an easy one.
Democrats unfortunately are stuck with this map until 2022. There's also no realistic way for Democrats to junk the new legislative maps: The Pennsylvania Constitution (Article 2, section 17 (e) forbids mid-decade legislative redistricting, and amending the constitution would require approval from the GOP-held legislature. Democrats have to work with a very bad map for the next eight years, but despite the GOP's best efforts, there is a narrow path to victory here.
Pennsylvania state House:
Pennsylvania State House of Representatives
The above map by Stephen Wolf uses the same color schemes as the Senate one. Just like the Senate, the House was drawn to protect a Republican majority. Romney took 111 of the 203 House seats, and won the median seat 52-47. Even Casey's 9-point statewide win was only enough to net him a bare majority of 103 of the 203 seats. There's a bit of ticket-splitting here: 15 Democrats sit in Romney seats, while 12 Republicans hold Obama districts.
Democrats will need to net 10 seats to take a majority in the House. In all likelihood this will take at least another cycle to pull off: Even with Corbett's unpopularity, there are a number of tough Republican incumbents Democrats will need to beat or wait to retire. That said, there are a few blue open Republican seats in the Philadelphia area that Democrats are targeting. Two important Democratic pickup opportunities are HD-157 (Obama 52-47) and HD-161 (Obama 56-43).
Pennsylvania Congressional Districts:
Romney won 13 of the state's 18 Congressional districts, and Republicans hold each of them. An interactive map of the districts by
JeffMD is above. Note that this map does not use color-coding.
The Republican candidates for auditor and treasurer won the same 13 seats as they lost statewide as well. There are four Romney-Casey seats: PA-06 (held by retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach); PA-07 (Pat Meehan); PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick); and PA-15 (Charlie Dent). All four seats were close in the presidential and Senate contests. Democrats are targeting the open PA-06 and are keeping an eye on PA-08, but Meehan and Dent are safe.
Kathleen Kane's 14-point statewide win for attorney general netted her an additional four seats for a total of 13: PA-11 (Lou Barletta), PA-12 (Keith Rothfus), PA-16 (Joe Pitts), and PA-18 (Tim Murphy). All four seats are seen as safe for the GOP for the foreseeable future.