I posted an Ebola blog with links to survivalistboards a week ago and of course got the beat down by a few people (because of preconceived notions about preppers/survivalists, because Im a conservative, because they believe the WHO spin that it would be under control etc). Many were open minded and appreciative so I wanted to post an update. Survivalistboards split their massive thread yesterday so it is easier to get specific information now and stay away from the conspiracy theories, blame etc.
If you recall WHO said that it would hit 20K before it was under control. I suggested (and was flamed by a few) that if it hit 20K it would be out of control. Now even President Obama is saying that it could be hundreds of thousands. But if it is hundreds of thousands there is nothing stopping it from hitting millions.
I still don't think there is much concern for infection in the US; but just because it is only impacting Africans shouldn't make it less important to us.
Ill include the usual caveats that there will be some material objectionable to liberals (blaming obama, advocating nuking the region etc). But this is the most active site for Ebola updates that I have found with a lot of good information dug out of obscure corners of the internet.
I was thinking about what actions we can take. I donated to Drs Without Borders but now they are saying money won't help at this point. They need military logistics. I would be interested in discussion about how we can get involved.
Here is a log graph which enables an expanded time scale. The mortality rate dropping is because the rate of infections is increasing faster than deaths (a bad thing). The mortality rate is heavily influenced by the number you use for average time to mortality. If there are many new infections with less than the average days to mortality you dont want to use them to calculate your mortality rate because they just might not have died yet.
This post below has the graphs as well as the algorithm/methodology. The solid lines are the projections based on a simple exponential function. The circles are the actual data as they arrive. As you can see the data is following the projections very closely. Keep in mind that these data are only the logged numbers from WHO, Drs without borders estimates the actual numbers are 4x higher.
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
This link shows the split forums :
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
Here is a link to each of the ebola forums:
Official graphs and statistics
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
General ebola discussion (this is the granddaddy with 500 pages)
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
Prepping for ebola (what materials to get, decontamination and treatment procedures etc)
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
Political discussion (blaming obama etc, I would recommend staying away)
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...
Official links and sources - links to all the articles, CDC faqs etc
http://www.survivalistboards.com/...