Charlie Cook:
Are things getting better for Senate Democrats? Certainly many of the better (more reliable) statistical models seem to suggest they are. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight moved from a 64 percent chance of the GOP gaining a majority, predicted on Sept. 3, to a 54.7 percent chance on Sept. 15. As of Sept. 16, The New York Times' Upshot model, nicknamed Leo, put GOP chances at 51 percent; they were at 67 percent on Aug. 26. The conventional wisdom also appears to have shifted over the past week. What, if anything, has happened to cause this shift?
Polls show Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina leading GOP challenger Thom Tillis. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)A little bit of the change can be attributed to methodological shifts among forecasters; as statistical modelers add new elements to their computations, the new data affect the output of their models. But that does not explain all of the shift. The most significant reason seems to be that in this year's competitive Senate races in purple states—those where either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney won by narrow margins—Democrats are, for the most part, holding their own or even improving their odds.
TPM:
In an apparent reversal, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach's office is instructing election officials in the state to send out overseas military ballots without Democratic Senate nominee Chad Taylor or any other Democratic Senate candidate listed.
Kobach spokeswoman Samantha Poetter confirmed to TPM that the ballots would be sent out by Saturday, the deadline under state and federal law.
"Our ballots are going out without Chad Taylor (or any Democratic candidate) for U.S. Senate," Poetter said. "They've been ordered to send them out as soon as possible."
TPM obtained a copy of the official order sent to local election officials.
More politics and policy below the fold.
Chris Cillizza:
Now, Christie's exoneration from involvement in Bridgegate doesn't mean that it will go away. As I mentioned above, it has already robbed him of the two most precious things for a presidential candidate at this stage of the race: buzz and momentum. And, even if Christie did nothing wrong, his cluelessness about the political retribution two of his top aides were exacting will be worrisome to plenty of Republican donors and voters. Add to all of that the major hits the state's credit ratings have taken under Christie and you can see there is plenty of work that he still needs to do.
But, for the first time in a long time, Christie can at least see a plausible path back to the top tier of a Republican presidential primary. He remains the most naturally gifted communicator in the potential field and, assuming that Bridgegate is truly behind him, the person with the best relationships with the Wall Street major donor crowd that helps provide the financial backbone to presidential candidates. Now, with the dark cloud of the looming investigation seemingly gone, those traits have a far better chance of shining through.
Mostly bullshit. Christie had huge issues without Bridgegate and nothing about this actually "helps" him. He's still either a goon or clueless, and most people think the former. But DC reporters like him, and he's quotable, so expect exaggeration of his status right up until when the media can't do it any more.
Meanwhile from Dylan Scott:
NBC's New York affiliate had reported Thursday that federal investigations had "thus far uncovered no evidence" showing that Christie knew about or ordered the George Washington Bridge closures in September 2013 that have become known as BridgeGate.
A spokeswoman for U.S. Attorney for New Jersey Paul Fishman, who is overseeing the investigation, confirmed to the Park Press that “the investigation is continuing" and no final determinations have been made regarding criminal charges.
Um... not exactly exoneration.
Roger Cohen:
The union has survived, comfortably enough in the end. Scotland will remain part of Britain. The queen’s title will stay unchanged: Her Majesty Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God, of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of Her Other Realms and Territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith. Phew: In that mouthful lurks a lot of history and stability. Relief is palpable. The pound rallied. David Cameron, the Tory prime minister who risked all, exhaled.
A clear majority of 55 percent of Scots rejected independence in a referendum that had many merits. The questioning of democracy has become fashionable. Stillborn after the Arab Spring, paralyzed by discord in the United States, increasingly pliant to money, dithering in its processes beside the authoritarian systems of China and Russia, often unable to deliver growth or stem rising inequality, democracy has become the problem child of the 21st century.
This vote, in which free people expressed their will over the potential breakup of Britain, amounted to a powerful reminder of democracy’s virtues. Participation was high. Civility in disagreement prevailed. “Aye” and “Nae” did battle; then they had a beer. In the words of the defeated Scottish nationalist leader, Alex Salmond, the referendum was “a triumph of the democratic process.”
Here's an interesting 4 month old post looking at London vs Northern England and resource allocation:
The most repeated myth in UK economics is that governments have tried and failed to heal the UK's North-South divide. The truth is that we've never even tried.
In the three most important areas of government intervention for creating economic growth — transport, higher education & research, and culture — all parties have consistently underinvested in the North of England.
I tweet, write and talk about this and how it hurts us all — from the Northerner who can't find a good job, to the well-employed Southerner who can't afford a decent home. A lot of people in London are sceptical about what I say. Here are answers to their most common questions.
Where there are no sources, they should be easy to find. If I haven't answered your question, get in touch. I will.
Jason Millman:
The Medicaid program, already the nation's largest insurer, has quickly added millions to its rolls since the start of Obamacare's coverage expansion. And it appears that Medicaid enrollees are generally happy to have coverage, though many are encountering roadblocks to receiving the care they want, according to new research that provides one of the earliest insights into people's experiences under the expanded health insurance program for low-income Americans.
The new insight comes from the research firm Perry Undem, which held six focus groups in Chicago, Denver and Portland, Ore., over the summer. Focus group participants were all newly enrolled in Medicaid this year, although many have also had past experience with private insurance or been previously enrolled in Medicaid before dropping off.