Unless he can turn things around, the Power Rankings may be the only victory Thom Tillis (R-NC) has this year.
Things, indeed, are heating up (literally, for those of us baking over the past week or so in sunny Southern California). We are rapidly heading towards that time in the election cycle when more races are getting polled, more ads are hitting the airwaves, and the hottest races are a daily part of our national political conversation. If it isn't the homestretch of the 2014 campaign cycle yet, we can surely see the homestretch ahead on the horizon.
Perhaps as a sign that the focus on Election Day 2014 is both intensifying (and, as a result, narrowing), for the first time since the inception of the Power Rankings, there are no new entries into the top 10 this month, as all 10 members from last month's countdown stay within the rankings. However, in a game of political musical chairs, only one of the top 10 remains in the same position that it was in last month, as Iowa stayed ensconced in the middle of the top 10.
And, at the top of the list, all that is old is new again. The original occupant of the top slot in the Senate Power Rankings last Spring, North Carolina, returns to the top spot this month for the first time since May. This comes at a time when, oddly enough, there seems to be perceptible daylight between the two candidates after months of appearing to be an outright coin flip.
Meanwhile, two other races rocketed up the rankings this week, even though they appear to be crossing the axis of competitiveness, if recent data is to be believed. Which goes to show that sometimes, perceived narrowness of a race is far from the only criteria that goes into the "newsworthiness" of a particular electoral contest.
Not that competitiveness is unimportant: indeed, Daily Kos Elections currently forecasts six Senate races as tossups. All six, for the second month in a row, are in the top 10.
For the top 10, a surprise near-entrant, and the rest of the also-rans, head beyond the fold for the mid-September edition of the Daily Kos Elections Senate Power Rankings.
As always, anyone curious about the rubric used to determine these Daily Kos Elections Senate Power Rankings can see the description at the close of this piece.
Two different facts, it would seem, make clear that we have hit the point in the election cycle where business is really beginning to pick up. For one thing, we had nearly every single Senate race represented with at least one point in the rankings this month. The lone holdout is Alabama, which is a holdout solely because it is the only Senate race this cycle where (regrettably) the incumbent (veteran Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions) failed to attract any major party opposition. What's more: only six other races (Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and both South Carolina races) were only polled once (by YouGov, of course). In total, 23 races scored at least 10 points on the rubric, which is an all-time high (albeit one aided, in part, by a six-week window instead of a one-month window).
The other thing that makes it clear that the campaign cycle is reaching its peak is the increasing stability, relatively speaking, of the rankings. As noted in the opening, the top 10 from last month all managed to stay in the top 10 this month, though largely in a different order. As the campaign cycle progresses, pollsters start to focus more intently on the races that could make or break the Senate balance of power. Furthermore, the more competitive races are seeing more news stories, and more advertising, than the pack. Therefore, according to our Power Rankings parameters, those heavier-polled, heavier-advertised races start to separate from the herd.
And separate they have. Most months, the difference between making the top 10 and missing has usually been between one and four points. This month? A full 14 points separated 10th place (Louisiana) from 11th place (Kansas). To the chagrin of some who would like to see a bigger map, the attention span of the pollsters, press, and political professionals seems to have narrowed considerably this month.
Seven states did notch over 20 points, though, and could conceivably crack the top 10. One of them, however, is just a touch more fascinating than the rest, and could dislodge one of the leaders: Kansas. It is hard to recall a race quite like this one. Nobody, and I mean nobody, saw veteran Republican Sen. Pat Roberts as imperiled at the start of this year. But the rise of a free-spending independent candidate (Greg Orman), and the damage done to the GOP brand name, even in a red state, have contributed to make this race top-tier entertainment. The Democratic nominee, prosecutor Chad Taylor, has exited the race to avoid Roberts being spared by split opposition. Predictably, the state's Republican chief elections officer, Sec. of State Kris Kobach, wouldn't let him. The Kansas Supreme Court, late last week, decided to grant Taylor's request to get off the ballot. And yet, immediately, Kobach insisted Democrats have to name a replacement, despite a mandatory deadline to print the ballots.
Amid all this, it looks like Roberts may well be even money to lose this race, no matter what the status of Taylor (or an alternate Democrat) on the ballot might be.
If that race doesn't get your attention, then you are missing out on a good deal of electoral fun.
Speaking of fun, here, from 11th to 35th, was the running order in this edition of the Power Rankings: Kansas (Roberts—34 points); Oregon (Merkley—32 points); Minnesota (Franken—28 points); South Dakota (Open Seat—28 points); Virginia (Warner—24 points); West Virginia (Open Seat—24 points); Montana (Open Seat—21 points); Illinois (Durbin—19 points); Hawaii (Schatz—18 points); New Jersey (Booker—18 points); Maine (Collins—15 points); New Mexico (T. Udall—13 points); Oklahoma—B (Open Seat—12 points); Delaware (Coons—8 points); Oklahoma—A (Inhofe—8 points); Tennessee (Alexander—8 points); Texas (Cornyn—8 points); Wyoming (Enzi—8 points); Mississippi (Cochran—6 points); Idaho (Risch—4 points); Massachusetts (Markey—4 points); Nebraska (Open Seat—4 points); Rhode Island (Reed—4 points); South Carolina—A (Graham—4 points); South Carolina—B (Scott—4 points).
And now, having put themselves well into the front pack while the peloton gives chase, here are the top 10 states that grace this mid-September version of the Power Rankings, presented with a slightly different approach this month. This month, let's look at this from two perspectives, events and trends over the last month that might give the Democrats optimism, and ones that could be causes for concern:
#10—LOUISIANA (48 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 7)
Causes for Democratic optimism: Republican Bill Cassidy might get some gloves laid on him. Polls have indicated a mini-boomlet for the third wheel in the race: GOP military vet Rob Maness. The Senate Conservatives Fund (which is backing Maness) flogged a poll saying that Maness was surging, and actually outperformed GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy when paired with Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu. The SCF's presence, in itself, is a reason for Democrats to smile. They have clearly decided that Cassidy is unacceptable in their eyes, with their website pairing Landrieu and Cassidy next to one another, each with the epithet "liberal" scrawled across it. Landrieu can hope that instead of having two Republicans training their attacks on her, that it might be her and Maness leveling haymakers at Cassidy, softening him up for what appears to be a near-certain runoff.
Causes for Democratic concern: If you look at the history of the open primary in the Pelican State, a different narrative regarding Maness emerges. What really seems to be happening is that Maness has merely managed to swoop up the votes of GOP state legislator Paul Hollis, who gave up the ghost earlier in the summer. With six-ish weeks to go, this very much looks like (a) a two-person race between Landrieu and Cassidy, and (b) a race that will go into "overtime," as a runoff may be necessary given that it is increasingly unlikely that neither Landrieu nor Cassidy will get to 50 percent in the first round on November 4th.
#9—COLORADO (52 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 4)
Causes for Democratic optimism: Colorado got a lot of attention over the last week, largely on the basis on this almost certain outlier of a poll. Now that may sound like sour grapes, seeing how said poll gave Republican Cory Gardner an outsized lead. But, then there is this:
What's more: Gardner knows he has a vulnerability on women's health issues, which is why he seems to be
sprinting away from his past positions on issues like contraception access and "personhood."
Causes for Democratic concern: Udall definitely has to be mindful, and worried, that this isn't the same electorate that propelled Barack Obama to victory in 2012. Even his own internal polling last week showed a marked GOP edge in terms of voter ID. In 2012, the Democrats had a five-point edge. Heck, even in godawful 2010, the Dems had a similar party ID advantage. If that reversal is legitimate (and multiple pollsters have seen it), it could well explain why this race remains stubbornly close, despite Gardner being a candidate with some vulnerabilities.
#8—ALASKA (62 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 5)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: The polls are fairly decent in this coin flip race. Since July 1st, Sen. Mark Begich has led Republican Dan Sullivan in six of the nine surveys conducted. Also, when your grounds for attacking Begich are really this freaking lame, it is hard to like your chances all that much.
Causes for Democratic Concern: Also, the polls. Alaska, according to Nate Silver's analysis at 538, has had a pretty consistent tilt, and in the direction of Democrats, to boot. So, in other words, a five-point lead for Begich might not be as comfortable (if such a modest lead could, indeed, be described as "comfortable") as you might think.
#7—GEORGIA (63 points)—DKE Rating: Likely Republican
(Last month: 1)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: Republican David Perdue is certainly not acting like a guy who is a betting favorite to win. This vicious attack ad on Michelle Nunn, which Perdue has wedded himself to, apparently, has a little smell of desperation to it. The efforts to drive African-American voter registration have also seemed to unnerve Republicans.
Causes for Democratic Concern: Close watchers of the polls in this race could make a reasonable argument that there has been a little bit of an erosion in support for Nunn. Perdue has led in five of seven polls released this month, and his average lead hovers just north of three points. What's more: Nunn's average support in those seven polls is just over 42 percent. That makes it a pretty long hike to hit 50 percent and avoid a general election runoff.
#6—IOWA (63 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 6)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: It probably came as a pleasant surprise this week for Democrats when a James Hohmann piece in Politico cited Republican sources betraying a sense of pessimism about their prospects in this race. One of Republican Joni Ernst's largest state allies tweeted that there was "no doubt" that Democrat Bruce Braley had moved into a lead, while excoriating Ernst supporters to crank up their efforts to get after their Democratic rival. It was the kind of article you tend to see from campaigns that are on their heels.
Causes for Democratic Concern: The polling data in this race does not seem to support such a dour view of the contest. A simple average of the polls in this race from August 1st onward shows an exact tie. Even if you factor out the outlier-ish Quinnipiac poll (yep, they had a few gutter balls this week, it would seem), it would still be a Braley "lead" of less than a point. For a candidate with as many points of liability as Ernst (see this recent example), the lack of movement here has to be somewhat frustrating.
#5—NEW HAMPSHIRE (65 points)—DKE Rating: Likely Republican
(Last Month: 8)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: Despite a couple of "OMG" headlines about recent polling, anyone bothering to take a complete picture of the polling picture in the Granite State would find it hard to dispute that Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is still ahead of Republican Scott Brown. Also, Brown did not appear to get much of a boost out of his primary win. Shaheen's average poll lead in the eight polls conducted since the early September primaries in New Hampshire is 3.9 percent. Her average lead in the month before was 5.0 percent.
Causes for Democratic Concern: The race has indisputably tightened from the early summer, when Shaheen enjoyed four consecutive polls with double-digit advantages. What's more, with Republican prospects flagging a bit in a race they felt very confident about a few months ago (North Carolina), the GOP might revisit this race, and a handful of others, in their path to 51 seats.
#4—KENTUCKY (68 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Republican
(Last Month: 10)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: Admittedly, these are a little bit harder to come by for Bluegrass State Democrats, as recent polls have flagged a bit. However, a little history could be a salve for any growing pessimism: in September of 2008, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell had polls with leads of 13 and 17 points, respectively, over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford. That edge dropped to six by Election Day.
Causes for Democratic Pessimism: This has not been a stellar polling month for the Democrats here. McConnell has led in all but one poll, an internal poll for challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes.
#3—ARKANSAS (72 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 2)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: A recent CNN poll showing Republican challenger Tom Cotton in the lead over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor actually had a very large kernel of good news for the senator. How? Because it showed that he could actually be a betting favorite, provided his team can generate a sizable turnout. The released at the beginning of this month, had Pryor down two to Cotton among likely voters, but up a gaudy nine points among the larger universe of registered voters. Such outsized RV/LV gaps are pretty uncommon, and Pryor supporters can argue that CNN may have employed a likely voter screen that was too tight for the Arkansas electorate.
Causes for Democratic Concern: Well, start with this historical not-so-fun fact: the last time we saw such outsized gaps between RVs and LVs in polling? 2010. Beyond that, though, Pryor's biggest concern is the same concern shared by a lot of red state Democratic officeholders right now. The President's job approval rating in that same CNN/ORC poll was 34 percent with both likely and registered voters. Disapproval with likely voters was 63 percent. Cotton's team have, in that respect, an easier task: all they have to do is hold onto about 80-85 percent of those folks who disapprove of a Democratic President. Pryor has to convince them to stick with him. He has done it before, and well. But it is, arguably, a tougher task to undertake.
#2—MICHIGAN (73 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Democratic
(Last Month: 3)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: Well, honestly, there are lots of them. Democrat Gary Peters has led in 14 of the last 16 polls conducted in the race—the lone holdouts being a pair of YouGov polls that were universally acknowledged as weird. Meanwhile, Peters has played largely error-free ball, while Land has ... well ... not done that.
Causes for Democratic Concern: From the beginning of the cycle, this race has proven to be one of the real targets of outside funding, and the personally wealthy Land can probably cut a check to keep up an aerial bombardment through November. Some of those outside groups appear to be triaging the race, but money may not be a problem for Land, even if it appears her fortunes are flagging.
#1—NORTH CAROLINA (82 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 9)
Causes for Democratic Optimism: There may be no top-tier Senate race whose basic calculus has changed more in the past few months than North Carolina (well, except for that Kansas race, of course!). A few months ago, the general consensus was that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan was among the one or two most endangered Democrats on the election calendar. Polls showed her trailing Republican Thom Tillis with some regularity. Since June, however, Hagan has led in 16 out of 19 polls of the race, including 10 of the last 11. In her last six polls, Hagan has pulled out to an average lead of over five points.
Causes for Democratic Concern: Democrats cannot start celebrating yet, though. One of the interesting quirks in this race is while Hagan has opened up a margin of some size over Tillis, there remains an outsized number of undecided voters for a top-tier race (the most recent poll, from Fox News, has 17 percent still on the fence). Libertarian Sean Haugh has garnered between five and eight percent in most polls, as well. If his numbers fade, as is often the case with third-party candidacies, where does his support go? PPP hinted this week that his support splits evenly, which would be great news for Hagan, if true.
THE RUBRIC: Three criteria were used to generate our Daily Kos Elections power rankings. One is competitiveness. This was done rather easily, utilizing our DKE Senate race ratings. If a race had been designated by the Daily Kos Elections crew as a "toss-up," that netted that race 15 points. If the race was designated as a "lean" D/R race, it was worth 10 points. If the race was designated as a "likely" D/R contest, it was worth five points.
The second criteria is newsworthiness. Some races, for lack of a more elegant way of putting it, have more going on than others. The criteria here was also objective: a Senate race received a single point for every day in which it was mentioned in a Daily Kos Elections Daily Digest.
The final criteria is "pollworthiness." Media outlets, campaigns, and polling firms are not going to poll a race for nothing. The more intriguing races are going to get more data points, typically. So, four points were awarded for each poll conducted in a given state's Senate race.
The "tiebreaker", when races have the same number of points accumulated, is as follows: 1) The first tie-breaker is the number of mentions in the month ("newsworthiness"); 2) The second tie-breaker, should their number of mentions also be equal, is that the state that was lower in the rankings in the previous month gets the higher of the rankings among the tied races. If last month was also a tie, it goes back to previous months until the tie is broken.
This particular set of Power Rankings covered polls and digest mentions from August 1-September 15.