A Democratic Senate may well hinge on Mark Begich (right) winning re-election in Alaska.
In what was, on balance, a disappointing polling week for the Democrats (a few pleasant data points aside), regular readers of our Daily Kos Election Outlook know that our model has shown a marked drop in the prospects for continued Democratic control of the Senate.
That is frustrating for a lot of folks, to be sure. One of the things they note, and with some justification, is that there are a number of Senate races, both Democratic-held and Republican-held, that appear to be on a knife's edge.
And it is easy to make that argument—after all, if you are depressed by the polls this week in, say, Alaska, why not focus instead of the Suffolk poll showing Mark Pryor up 2 in Arkansas, or the SurveyUSA poll that has Michelle Nunn pulling back within a point of David Perdue in GOP-held Georgia?
Below the fold, we will look at how the state of the Senate has changed, and not necessarily in a way that Democrats would prefer. Also, if you head below the jump, you can also see the 43 individual polls that have come across our desk in the past three days (Sep 23-25).
AK-Sen (PPP—D): Dan Sullivan (R) 43, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 41
AK-Sen (Rasmussen): Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 43
AK-Sen (Dittman Research—R): Dan Sullivan (R) 49, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 43
AR-Sen (PPP): Tom Cotton (R) 43, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 38
AR-Sen (Suffolk): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 43
CO-Sen (PPP—D): Cory Gardner (R) 47, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45
DE-Sen (Univ. of Delaware): Sen. Chris Coons (D) 50, Kevin Wade (R) 27, Andrew Groff (G) 6
GA-Sen (SurveyUSA): David Perdue (R) 46, Michelle Nunn (D) 45
HI-Sen (Merriman River Group): Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 62, Cam Cavasso (R) 25
MA-Sen (MassINC): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 58, Brian Herr (R) 30
MI-Sen (Rasmussen): Gary Peters (D) 41, Terri Land (R) 39
NC-Sen (Global Strategy Group—D): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41, Sean Haugh (L) 5
NC-Sen (Gravis—R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41
NH-Sen (New England College): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 43
VA-Sen (Quinnipiac): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 48, Ed Gillespie (R) 39, Robert Sarvis (I) 6
VA-Sen (Roanoke): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 46, Ed Gillespie (R) 27, Robert Sarvis (I) 5
AK-Gov (PPP—D): Bill Walker (I) 42, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 41
AR-Gov (PPP—D): Asa Hutchinson (R) 44, Mike Ross (D) 38
AR-Gov (Suffolk): Asa Hutchinson (R) 43, Mike Ross (D) 41
AZ-Gov (Keating Research—D): Doug Ducey (R) 41, Fred DuVal (D) 39, Barry Hess (L) 7
CA-Gov (PPIC): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 54, Neel Kashkari (R) 33
FL-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 44, Charlie Crist (D) 42, Adrian Wyllie (L) 8
FL-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 43, Charlie Crist (D) 42, Adrian Wyllie (L) 4
GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Jason Carter (D) 45, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44
MA-Gov (MassINC): Martha Coakley (D) 46, Charlie Baker (R) 36
MA-Gov (Boston Globe/SocialSphere): Charlie Baker (R) 40, Martha Coakley (D) 38
MI-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 47, Mark Schauer (D) 41
NH-Gov (New England College): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 52, Walt Havenstein (R) 40
NY-Gov (Marist): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 54, Rob Astorino (R) 29, Howie Hawkins (G) 9
NY-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 49, Rob Astorino (R) 32
PA-Gov (Franklin and Marshall): Tom Wolf (D) 54, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 33
PA-Gov (Magellan—R): Tom Wolf (D) 49, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 40
AK-AL (PPP—D): Rep. Don Young (R) 48, Forrest Dunbar (D) 33, Jim McDermott (L) 9
CA-10 (GBA Strategies—D): Rep. Jeff Denham (R) 49, Michael Eggman (D) 41
DE-AL (Univ. of Delaware): Rep. John Carney (D) 52, Rose Izzo (R) 17, Others 11
GA-12 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. John Barrow (D) 44, Rick Allen (R) 42
HI-01 (Merriman River Group): Charles Djou (R) 46, Mark Takai (D) 42
HI-02 (Merriman River Group): Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) 70, Kawika Crowley (R) 17
IA-03 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Staci Appel (D) 47, David Young (R) 44
MN-07 (Tarrance Group—R): Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 45, Torrey Westrom (R) 40
NH-01 (New England College): Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 45, Frank Guinta (R) 45
NH-02 (New England College): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 49, Marilinda Garcia (R) 38
PA-10 (JMC Analytics for Troiano): Rep. Tom Marino (R) 38, Scott Brion (D) 26, Nick Troiano (I) 16
One of the things that always gradually changes over the course of the election cycle is that the playing field inevitably narrows. Our Senate Election Outlook has chalked off, for all intents and purposes, about two-thirds of the 2014 Senate map. Eleven races currently exist between having a 5 percent and a 95 percent chance of going Democratic. That means that our model suggests that, for the other 25 races on the calendar, the cake is almost certainly baked. A surprise victory (or defeat) is not completely out of the question, but it is incredibly remote.
And therein lies the first hurdle for Democrats: they can only afford to lose five seats, and three Democratic-held seats are in that band of races that have less than a 5 percent chance of Democratic success. Partisans (particularly in those states) might holler, but the model just doesn't see a ton of reasons for optimism in those three red state open seats that have been marked as vulnerable since early in the cycle.
In West Virginia, we have seen three polls over the last seven weeks showing Republican Shelley Moore Capito easily defeating Democrat Natalie Tennant. And Democrats have to be alarmed that we have yet to see a poll here from a Tennant ally selling the "it's not that bad" meme. We haven't seen a Dem-sponsored poll here since February.
Meanwhile, the late candidate change in Montana has yielded only two polls, both showing an 18-20 point GOP lead. With her late start, it seems like a hugely uphill climb for state legislator Amanda Curtis, who might have agreed to take the shot with a look at 2016.
Of the three "lost" Democratic seats, the one that might be most interesting is South Dakota. What is clear is that former Gov. Mike Rounds, the GOP nominee, is far from beloved. He has averaged just 42 percent of the vote in the last five polls taken there. What is far less clear is whether or not Democrat Rick Weiland will be able to take advantage of it. The presence of former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler (who has morphed over the years into a Dem-sympathetic Independent) complicates things hugely for Weiland. And, unlike Kansas (or the Alaska gubernatorial race), there appears to be zero prospect of a late consolidation of the anti-GOP vote.
So, if we presume that those three seats flip to the GOP, then the math becomes simple: the Democrats have to win the majority of the 11 races that are still seen by our model has marginally competitive. Eight of them are held by Democrats, while three are held by Republicans (Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky).
Each of those three GOP-held seats has a complicating factor, as well. In Kentucky, the complication (quite simply) is the polling data. In August and September, Mitch McConnell has pulled out to an average lead of 5.1 points over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. In the two months prior to that, McConnell lead by just 2.1 points. Meanwhile, in Georgia, the perpetual complication there is the prospect of a general election runoff. And with Libertarian Amanda Swafford at 5 percent, on average, that runoff is looking fairly plausible, even with the proviso that third-party candidates tend to lose support on election day. Finally, the complication in Kansas is Greg Orman himself, since he has already made it pretty clear that he will caucus with the majority party. So, assuming that the defeat of Pat Roberts equals a Democratic pickup is not entirely accurate.
So, if we are to assume (for the moment) that those three seats stay in the GOP fold, the Democratic mountain becomes even a little taller: they must win 6 of 8 of the remaining races: Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It is still very possible, but that is a lot of balls to hold in the air at once. Which is why when the Democrats see some challenging polling in a particular race (like...say...the trio of polls this week showing Mark Begich trailing), the model reacts rather sharply.
There are, in all probability, no more long bombs to be thrown downfield on either side. This is the electoral embodiment of "three yards and a cloud of dust" between the 40-yard lines.