Democratic Sen. Mark Begich
Leading Off:
• AK-Sen: On balance, it has been a particularly sucky week for Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. On Wednesday, the freshman Democrat learned that even devoted fealty to the gun lobby isn't worth a shit, as the NRA announced that the will not endorse his re-election. Mind you, Begich has voted with the NRA 100 percent of the time, but the NRA weaseled out of the endorsement, saying that Begich's vote for Obama's Supreme Court nominees was an automatic disqualification in their eyes. In a (very) small victory, they won't be endorsing Republican Dan Sullivan, either.
Compounding the wound, two new polls show Begich trailing. A new Rasmussen poll has Begich down by five points to Sullivan (48-43). And while it is easy to make Rasmussen cracks (cycles of bad polling will do that), they have not been reflexively pro-GOP this cycle, and PPP also showed Begich trailing earlier in the week.
A GOP-sponsored poll by Dittman Research, conducted for the Chamber of Commerce, has Republican Dan Sullivan leading Begich by a similar 49-43 margin. Part of the issue, as is the case in many red states, is the president's job approval, which Dittman says is hovering in the low 30s.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: On behalf of Americans for Tax Fairness and ProgressCO, PPP takes a look at the Colorado Senate race and finds Republican Cory Gardner leading Democratic Sen. Mark Udall 47-45. Polls in this race have been all over the map: In the last two weeks of September we've seen everything between a five point Udall lead to an eight point Gardner edge.
The poll's sponsors apparently didn't ask about Udall and Gardner's favorable ratings or even the gubernatorial contest. However, we do learn that Colorado voters disprove of Burger King moving to Canada by a 69-26 margin. This is bad news for the company's mascot The Burger King, whom NRSC chairman Jerry Moran is reportedly trying to recruit for a 2016 campaign against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
• KS-Sen: This is not going to make life any easier for embattled Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Roberts has been hurt by revelations that he barely spends any time in his nominal home state, but the senator insists that he is a true Kansan. Still, he twice signed a Deed of Trust in Virginia, where he identified his Old Dominion home as his primary residence. Roberts' campaign is noting that independent rival Greg Orman voted in Florida in 2004 and 2006, and it's a good bet that Republican opposition researchers will be scouring the Sunshine State for any documents that can put Orman's ties to Kansas into doubt.
Elsewhere in Kansas, the ballot wars continue. Last Thursday, after the Kansas Supreme Court granted Democratic nominee Chad Taylor's request to be removed from the ballot, Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach demanded that the state Democratic Party choose a new candidate. Both sides know that even a minor Democratic candidate could cost Orman some left-leaning votes and Team Blue is perfectly happy not to field anyone here. On Tuesday the state Supreme Court remanded Kobach's lawsuit to a lower court, which is their way of basically running out the clock: With the election so soon, it's unlikely that the courts will order state Democrats to select a nominee in time for the ballots to be distributed.
Kobach isn't giving up though. On Wednesday, he filed a motion to try and get a Democratic nominee selected by Oct. 1. It's hard to see Kobach getting what he wants this quickly. Not helping him is that there's no legal penalty for state Democrats if they don't pick a nominee, allowing them to wait Kobach out. One way or another we should know soon enough if Orman will have a free shot at Roberts, but things don't look good for the GOP here.
• NC-Sen: You're probably tired of the "even _!!!" meme (to be used when a pollster with a particularly notorious partisan lean comes out with a result that's distinctly favorable for the other party). But I'm not sure I have a better way of phrasing it than: even Gravis (on behalf of Human Events magazine) finds that Kay Hagan has a significant lead over Thom Tillis. The Democratic incumbent leads 46-42, a slight improvement from their previous poll in July (which put Hagan up 44-41). Only 2 of the 15 polls from other pollsters in between those two Gravis polls have given Tillis a lead.
• NH-Sen, Gov, 01, 02: Good news! Feast on a heaping helping on new Granite State polling data. And, be prepared to bring your appetite every week, because New England College is vowing to bring new numbers weekly through the election.
Bearing in mind that NEC has been, with some cushion, the rosiest Democratic pollster in the state, the numbers here might look awfully good. So, as we cautioned on Tuesday, it might make sense to look poll-to-poll, rather than look at this poll in isolation. Viewed through that lens, NEC is moving towards everyone else this week, with incrementally better numbers for the GOP.
In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads Scott Brown by a 50-43 margin, four points closer than last week's poll. In the gubernatorial showdown, incumbent Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan still leads Walt Havenstein by twelve (52-40), which is three points tighter than last week. In the House races, NH-02 remains essentially unchanged, with Republican challenger Marilinda Garcia just two points closer to Democratic Rep. Anne Kuster than last week (49-38), while Frank Guinta did pull even with Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (45-45). CSP had a four-point lead over Guinta last week in their rematch (well, to be accurate, rematch of their rematch—this is their 3rd cycle in a row battling head-to-head).
• VA-Sen: Cue the "Wow!!! Ed Gillespie is within single-digits of Mark Warner!!!" freakout. On Thursday, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Democratic Sen. Mark Warner leading Republican rival Ed Gillespie 48-39, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 6.
This is the closest anyone has ever found the race, aside from a strange Harper Poll back in February. Three other pollsters surveyed this contest in September and all found Warner leading by at least 12 points. On one hand, Quinnipiac's polling arm has a much better reputation than Christopher Newport University's or especially Roanoke College's, while YouGov has been giving us weird results all year. However, Quinnipiac has shown its share of Republican leaning outliers this year. It's tempting to call Quinnipiac the odd man out here, but there isn't enough data to say that right now.
Even if Quinnipiac is completely right here, it's hard to see Warner losing. The senator sports an impressive 52-34 favorable rating, compared to Gillespie's 34-26. Warner's also very close to the magic 50 percent mark here. National Republicans haven't spent much on this race, suggesting they don't yet see a path to victory for Gillespie in this very expensive state. Warner's Democratic allies at Virginia Progress did spend quite a bit over the summer nuking Gillespie but have been pretty silent in recent weeks. If both parties indicate that they're willing to invest serious money in the final month of the campaign that will be one thing, but so far this still looks like Warner's race to lose.
Gubernatorial:
• ME-Gov: We have campaign finance reports from the July 16 to Sept. 16 period. Republican incumbent Paul LePage raised about $400,000 with about $1 million on hand. Democratic challenger Mike Michaud brought in $430,000 and also has about $1 million left over. Independent Eliot Cutler raised $419,000 and loaned himself another $100,000, but did not report his cash-on-hand.
The Portland Press Herald offers an awesome map looking at how many dollars each candidate raised by town. Each town is color-coded based on which candidate raised the most.
• NY-Gov: Rasmussen: Andrew Cuomo (D-inc.) 49, Rob Astorino (R) 32.
• PA-Gov: Franklin & Marshall takes a look at their home state and finds... pretty much the same thing everyone else is finding. Among registered voters, Democrat Tom Wolf leads Republican Gov. Tom Corbett 54-33.
What's weird is that F&M has two sets of likely voters, "Historical Likely Voters," and "Self-reported Likely voters." In a closer race this distinction could make a real difference but here... meh. Among historical likely voters Wolf leads 57-36, and among the self-reported likelies it's 57-37 Wolf.
But wait! Magellan Strategies, on behalf of the conservative blog The Keystone Report, comes to Corbett's rescue. They find him trailing Wolf "only" 49-40: In July, Wolf had a 12-point lead.
House:
• CA-10: It's been a very long time since this contest has gotten any real attention. While Republican Rep. Jeff Denham sits in a Central Valley seat that Obama won 51-47, there hasn't been a lot of optimism about Democrat Michael Eggman's chances. Denham beat a formidable opponent by six points last time around, and this is an area where Democratic turnout tends to disproportionately fall in non-presidential years.
Eggman is hoping to convince his party that he's a worthy investment before his race is triaged for good. To that end, Eggman's released an internal from GBA Strategies showing Denham winning 49-41. An unreleased April poll had Eggman down 26 points, and his campaign is arguing they have momentum. This isn't exactly the most encouraging poll ever released, but it's not like Eggman's in a great place right now.
• GA-12: Republican Rick Allen has released a new survey from Public Option Strategies, showing him trailing Democratic Rep. John Barrow 44-42. The memo gives Barrow a good 44-32 favorable rating, which helps explain why he's managed to remain competitive (and perhaps even favored) in this Romney 55-44 seat. Interestingly, the poll gives Obama a 40-52 approval rating here, which is a lot better than you'd expect in a seat as red as this.
• MI-01: It's hard to get a read on what's going on in this Northern Michigan district. The NRCC recently reserved $1 million to defend Republican Rep. Dan Benishek, indicating that they were worried about him. However, a few weeks ago, House Majority PAC quietly canceled a planned $375,000 buy for Democrat Jerry Cannon. You usually don't pull the plug on a large ad buy this late in the game unless you're feeling very good or very bad about a race, and it's quite unlikely that Team Blue thinks that Cannon has this locked up. We'll see if both national parties and their allies keep spending here or if other groups start to pull out.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson's re-election race is rated Lean Democratic by Daily Kos Elections, so this Tarrance Group poll that was commissioned and released by his opponent Torrey Westrom today is pretty much what we would expect: Peterson leads 45 percent to 40 percent. Westrom is looking to telegraph that he is within striking distance, especially since he has not aired any ads yet. It's also a reassuring sign for Peterson that he is leading in the best poll that his challenger had to release.
• WA-04: The National Rifle Association has backed former state agriculture director Dan Newhouse is the open seat race in the 4th, which is an all-Republican race thanks to the state's top-two primary and the district's dark-red hue. That's potentially a big help to the establishmentarian Newhouse, and kind of surprising, since Didier has done his a lot trying to stimulate the gun industry, starting with a gun giveaway to supporters. The NRA may have been worried about being associated with Didier's fringier tendencies, though, and Didier probably just confirmed that with his rant after finding out he didn't get the endorsement, asking "Wonder who got to them?"
Grab Bag:
• Media: Following her interesting discussion from a few weeks ago how ad buyer are eagerly hoping for baseball teams to make the playoffs in key electoral states (because it delivers a large captive audience who aren't likely to DVR a game and skip the ads), Roll Call's Abby Livingston is out with a more detailed look at what other shows campaigns especially like to target. In addition to sports, talent competitions like "The Voice" are also popular because they get watched live, and also because they attract a largely female viewership. Other targets are daytime talk shows (also to reach women), game shows and CBS primetime for reaching the elderly, and cable news, for reaching highly-engaged voters.
• Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: The National Association of Realtors spends $749,000 for Democratic Sen. Mark Begich.
• CO-Sen: Republican Cory Gardner characterizes Democratic Sen. Mark Udall as a nice guy, but one who won't fix the Senate. Gardner describes how Udall has a long career in politics, with two cousins serving with him in the Senate (New Mexico Democrat Tom Udall and Utah Republican Mike Lee), and a guy whose dad ran for president. Gardner then stresses him humble origins and calls for shaking up the Senate.
It's a pretty good ad and Democrats seem to be aware of it: The DSCC is calling the spot "a disgusting attack" on the Udall family, while Udall's statement decried "personal attacks on our families." A better approach may be to remind voters of Gardner's unpopular votes in the House and characterize him as part of the problem in Washington.
On the Democratic side, the NEA spends $202,000 here.
• IA-Sen: Republican Joni Ernst features soldiers she served with praising her (here and here).
• LA-Sen: Concerned Vets hits Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu on Obamacare.
• MI-Sen: The ironically-named Ending Spending shells out $1,117,000 against Democrat Gary Peters.
• MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Al Franken touts his work on the Farm Bill.
• NC-Sen: Senate Majority PAC spends $579,000 against Republican Thom Tillis.
• NH-Sen: Ending Spending hits Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen with $709,000.
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie.
• Freedom Partners: New pro-GOP expenditures in AK-Sen, NC-Sen, OR-Sen, and NH-02.
• NextGen Climate: Various pro-Democratic expenditures.
• NRA: New spots for GOP candidates in the Kentucky and Louisiana Senate races, and the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest.
• AR-Gov: Democrat Mike Ross hits Republican Asa Hutchinson for voting for brutal cuts.
• IL-Gov: Illinois Freedom casts Republican Bruce Rauner as a brutal outsourcer.
• KS-Gov: Republican Gov. Sam Brownback goes after Democrat Paul Davis on taxes, while emphasizing his own tax cuts.
• ME-Gov: Republican Gov. Paul LePage defends himself on Social Security.
• SC-Gov: Democrat Vincent Sheheen characterizes Republican Gov. Nikki Haley as unethical.
• AZ-01: Americans for Prosperity hits Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick on Obamacare.
• AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally casts herself as above nasty politics.
• CA-07, 36: The American Society of Anesthesiologists spends a combined $281,000 for Democratic Reps. Ami Bera and Raul Ruiz.
• CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters emphasizes his work on helping a local veteran.
• CO-06: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman hits Democratic rival Andrew Romanoff's record. Romanoff emphasizes his work on helping domestic violence victims and schools, while hitting Coffman's record.
• FL-02: Democrat Gwen Graham attacks Republican Rep. Steve Southerland over the government shutdown.
• IL-17: Republican Bobby Schilling.
• ME-02: Senate Majority PAC goes after Republican Bruce Poliquin on Medicare.
• MN-08: Republican Stewart Mills hits Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan on mining jobs and the EPA.
• NY-01: Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop emphasizing saving local FAA jobs.
• NY-18: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce hits Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney as a Pelosi lackey while praising Republican Nan Hayworth.
• NY-21: Democrat Aaron Woolf talks local jobs.
• NV-03: Republican Rep. Joe Heck.
• WV-02: Republican Alex Mooney goes after Democrat Nick Casey on abortion.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.