The dumbest argument against bombing ISIS.
“ISIS wants the US to bomb them. Therefore, ISIS will benefit from being bombed."
I believe, that in fact, ISIS does want the US to become fully engaged in this conflict. Beheading Americans while filming the acts with high quality video, and releasing it to the world was intended to provoke us, and get us involved militarily.
ISIS appears very confident that by bringing the US into this fight, it will rally Muslims from around the world to their cause, and hasten the formation of the caliphate.
Osama Bin Ladin used the same rationale for organizing the attacks of September 11th. He knew it would provoke us into conflict, and reportedly he was confident that Al Queda would grind down our forces in the in the mountains of Afghanistan, as they had had done with the USSR.
In the end, things didn’t work out to well for Osama Bin Ladin or the original version of Al Queda. I see absolutely no reason why things will turn out better for ISIS this time around.
There are numerous heroin addicts in the United States. If we randomly selected a handful of these users and asked them “Would you like a free kilogram of absolutely pure smack?” My guess is that the majority of them would jump at the offer.
Would giving them free heroin be the best thing for them?
No, I don’t believe so. In fact, I think a good number of them would OD and depart this world if given what they wanted.
Kansas is another good analogy. If you were to ask your average, white, conservative Republican Kansan back in 2008 or 2010, “How would you like for Republicans to hold both US Senate Seats, the Governor’s Mansion, and the state legislature?” My guess is that the majority of Kansas voters got their wishes between 2008 and 2012. But was it the best thing for them? The evidence suggests otherwise.
I believe we can all agree, ISIS is a collection of religious fanatics. Really, really, really fanatic-nutcases. And they think – or in some cases, thought (past tense for the recently deceased)– that provoking us into the fight was a good idea. My guess is that their surviving sub-commanders are starting to rethink that position.
ISIS soldiers aren’t supermen. They are religious fanatics that figured out how to grab a bunch of territory that allowed them to rake in millions of dollars a day in oil revenue. They extended their lines way beyond what they are capable of supporting logistically. In the near future, those on the front lines are going to die in very large numbers. With our total control of the air space above them, many more are going to perish when they try to retreat across open deserts. The Peshmerga and the Shiia are not in the mood for prisoners, beyond short-term intelligence value.
Again, ISIS is a collection of religious fanatics, and many on this site – Daily Kos – are arguing that we shouldn’t bomb them because ISIS has genius tacticians that “Want the US to join the fight.”
It’s a ridiculous argument. And I don’t think is going to take all that long to prove how wrong-headed ISIS was, when they effectively provoked us into this battle.
If we are to take ISIS at their word, and credit them with being excellent military tacticians, shouldn’t we take economic advice from Governor Brownback? Should we rely on Sarah Palin to develop a plan to reduce childhood obesity? Will Senator Vitter finally release a plan to protect the Sanctity of Marriage, that we can all get behind?