Republican Mike Rounds
Local South Dakota pollster Nielson Brothers takes a look at the weird three-way Senate contest between Republican Mike Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland, and Larry Presser, a former Republican senator running as an independent. They find Rounds
leading Weiland 39-26, with Pressler at 24, similar to what we've seen in some other polling.
However, they also asked about hypothetical two-way matchups: In a Rounds vs. Weiland race, Rounds leads 45-37, while he would only edge Pressler 40-39. It's worth noting that it's too late for any candidate to actually take himself off the ballot, though. The best Weiland or Pressler could do would be to stop campaigning and endorse the other.
Neither Weiland nor Pressler have given any indication that they're ready to drop out of the race. It may be tempting to look at this poll and conclude that Democrats should pressure Weiland to pull the plug on his campaign, much as they did in Kansas, but as we've noted in the past, there's no guarantee that such a move would really help stop Rounds. Pressler has been a terrible fundraiser and is largely coasting by on his old name recognition. Pressler even acknowledges his own un-seriousness by declaring at the outset, "If I win, I might demand a recount."
Weiland, meanwhile, is actually running a real campaign, and there's no question Pressler's hurting him far more than he is Rounds. If Pressler won't budge, Democrats might have more luck running ads arguing that Pressler is the real conservative in the race (whether or not he actually is). That could at least drive some Republicans from Rounds and some Democrats from Pressler.
It's also worth noting that Nielson Brothers does not have a good reputation. In late October of 2010, they found Republican Dennis Dauggard leading his Democratic opponent Scott Heidepriem only 43-40 in South Dakota's gubernatorial contest. Days later, Dauggard won 62-38, a horrific 21-point error. The group did better in the U.S. House race, finding Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin leading Republican Kristi Noem 42-40; Noem won 48-46, a 4-point miss. The group has also posted some very inconsistent results in local races.
For his part, Rounds is trying to push back by claiming he has a poll showing him up 18 points. Weirdly, though, Rounds' camp didn't release any identifying features about this poll—not even the name of the pollster. Rounds has been very reactive throughout this race, often responding clumsily to any attacks or suggestions he's in danger. Maybe Rounds is just being cautious, but his actions suggest that he doesn't feel like he has this race in the bag yet.