To date, I believe I have been about a genuine honest broker about the state of Florida's gubernatorial race. When Charlie Crist, for whom my wife works, was up, I urged caution. When he was down, I was often the first to say as much and to offer an explanation as to why.
My preference in the governor's race is so well known, I really don't write about why I think Crist is the better choice. Rather, I've chosen to focus on Rick Scott's glaring faults and errors. But that's the extent of the bias on this blog.
On my other properties, I have insisted on balance. On Context Florida, as op-ed contributor and prominent Scott supporter Barney Bishop can attest, I've stayed out of editor Tom O'Hara's kitchen. In Sunburn, I highlight the good, the bad, and the ugly about both Crist and Scott.
Again, I am admittedly a Crist acolyte, but even the far-right Sunshine State News has commended me for providing balanced coverage.
So all of this said, when I write what I am about to write -- that I believe the race has shifted in Crist's favor -- I ask you to keep in mind my bend-over-backwards attempt to play straight the state of the race.
Yesterday, I was presented with at least five data points, most of which I can't publicly share, that tell me the race has titled back to a tie or Crist leading.
Most prominent of these is the Survey USA poll showing Crist with a six point lead. Some want to dismiss the Survey USA poll as an outlier, but that's a mistake. First of all, data guru Nate Silver recently graded Survey USA as the highest rated pollster currently operating in Florida. What I see in Survey USA's numbers is a two week trend line which IS NOT occurring in a vacuum.
It was about two weeks ago that three things began happening:
1) Crist and his allies reached near-financial parity with Scottworld. The two boxers are now standing in the ring, toe-to-toe and swinging it out. Scott's money advantage is still there, but there's only so much money that can get rammed through the pipeline these last five weeks.
2) Scott's "Swindled" ad backfired. After the Miami Herald's Marc Caputo revealed the identity of the man behind a ridiculous claim about Crist and Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein, the Scott campaign's line of attack has been misfiring. In fact, it's back to Crist being a flip-flopper, which is a rich claim considering all of Scott's election-year metamorphoses.
3) The media, particularly local TV news, has come to Crist's aid. Whether it be Fox's Craig Patrick's epic takedown of Scott's jobs record or the countless number of segments about "Swindled" or Scott's unwillingness to answer reporters' questions, there has been a barrage of unflattering stories about Scott. And there will be more, as the newspapers weigh in with their endorsements and generally not give Scott the pass they did in 2010 when they did not think he could win.
All of this has been going on, while Crist, Next Gen Climate, and the Florida Democratic Party have sharpened their message and laid into Scott with as much firepower as they can muster.
As for the other data points, I mentioned, let me describe them generically so as to not give away my sources: 1) is an internal poll from a statewide interest group traditionally allied with Republicans; 2) is an internal poll from a national third-party targeting Scott; 3) a top-level source very close to Scott; 4) my own polling of a Crist-leaning county that, even with a heavy Republican sample, is over performing for Crist.
You can take all of this with a grain of salt, as well as this caveat: just as the worm has likely turned for Crist, it can just as quickly turn again.