California State Senate
In 2012, California Democrats finally and unexpectedly won their long-awaited legislative supermajorities. Democrats secured two-thirds majorities in both the state Senate and state Assembly, allowing them to raise taxes without Republican votes. It was a huge setback for the state GOP and threatened to doom them to irrelevance.
While the Democrats are assured to keep control of both chambers, each supermajority is in danger. If Republicans can net only a few seats this year, not only will they have the power to obstruct the Democrats agenda, they'll be able to convince donors and potential candidates that they can still win competitive races. Both parties are working hard to win a small number of Senate and Assembly seats, and no one's sure what will happen. While Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown's easy re-election victory should help his party, Democrats have tended to disproportionately stay home in midterm years and poor turnout could hurt them in critical contests.
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Follow me below the fold for a look at the races that will likely determine if Democrats keep their supermajorities.
What follows is a look at the races that will likely determine if Democrats keep their supermajorites. One thing to address early is the state's top-two primary. Many of these candidates ran against each other in June's all-party primary, where the top-two vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. It's tempting to look at the top-two results and try and draw conclusions about who may have the edge in the general. However, in 2012 the top-two badly underestimated Democrats across the board. Additionally, many candidates who feel they're guaranteed to advance to November don't bother to spend much in June, potentially low-balling their numbers. By this point in the election cycle, both parties have a good idea of what races are competitive and which ones aren't, and the top-two results don't tell us anything new.
The interactive maps were created by Stephen Wolf. Districts in solid blue were carried by Obama and send a Democrat to the legislature; districts in red were carried by Romney and send a Republican to Sacramento. Light red districts voted for Obama but have a Republican legislator (no Romney districts in California have a Democratic legislator). The sole gray district was created by redistricting and does not have an incumbent assigned to it. You can find all of Wolf's maps here. Note that the map displays use only the two-party vote to give you a more equivalent comparison between presidential and legislative results, but this post and Daily Kos Elections numbers for each district include totals for third-party candidates, though the differences are minor. You can find how each Senate and Assembly seat voted here, as well as Daily Kos Elections' master list of presidential data by legislative district here.
California Senate:
This is one chamber that has made a good deal of news, and not in a good way. In the past year, three Democratic state senators were suspended over unrelated corrupt activities. Democrats on paper held a 28-12 supermajority, one seat more than the 27 needed; however, Team Blue couldn't do much with it after the three senators were suspended. The good news for Democrats is that one of those senators, Rod Wright, has resigned and his 80-18 Obama seat will be easy to hold in the December special election. The other two members, Leland Yee and Ron Calderon, are termed out.
However, it's not going to be easy for Democrats to hold the 27 seats they need. Redistricting eliminated Yee's San Francisco seat and a safely Republican Inland Empire district took its place, giving Democrats one automatic loss. Twenty Senate seats are on the ballot this year (the rest are up in 2016) and if Democrats are going to maintain two-thirds, they'll need to win 12 of them. Most of the seats are very safe for one party or the other—Democrats should have absolutely no problem in 11 districts, while Republicans won't have any issues in the six Romney seats.
Democrats need to win just one of the remaining three seats, but it's going to take some hard work. Democrats initially hoped that they could unseat state Sen. Anthony Cannella in SD-12, a 58-40 Obama district that includes parts of the Central Valley and Monterey County. Unfortunately, this is a district where Democratic turnout tends to plunge in non-presidential years, and Cannella's moderate reputation makes him a tough target. Democratic candidate Shawn Bagley hasn't been a good fundraiser, being outspent badly in the last few months and holding a massive $987,000 to $24,000 cash-on-hand deficit. Both parties are focusing elsewhere and it looks like this one will stay in the red column.
The other two districts, SD-14 and SD-34, are expected to be far more competitive. Republican state Sen. Andy Vidak won SD-14 in a low-turnout 2013 special election and is fighting to hold it. The district, which includes parts of Fresno, Bakersfield, and Hanford, went for Obama 58-40 and was Democratic-held until Vidak's victory. However, this is another district where off-year Democratic turnout is poor, and the Central Valley has been willing to elect Republicans even in good Democratic years. The area's ongoing water crisis also has left many unhappy with Democrats in Sacramento. Unlike in the neighboring SD-12, the Democratic candidate is raising and spending real money. Luis Chavez, a Fresno school trustee, outspent Vidak $841,000 to $688,000 in the last three months, though Vidak has a small cash-on-hand edge now. Both parties are working hard to pull off a win here, but Chavez's biggest obstacle may be turnout, not Vidak.
Over in Orange County, SD-34 is the other major Senate battleground. The contest pits former Democratic Assemblyman Jose Solorio against Republican Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen. Obama won this seat, which includes parts of Westminster, Santa Ana, and Anaheim, 53-44. Both candidates are very well-funded; Solorio outspent Nguyen $1,397,000 to $908,000 in the last three months and both have comparable amounts of money left over. Nguyen has been portraying one-party rule as bad for Orange County, while Solorio is arguing he'll be more effective in the majority. Both parties are focusing heavily here, with Brown recently cutting an ad for Solorio. For Democrats to keep the supermajority, they'll need to win either SD-14 or SD-34.
California State Assembly
Assembly:
Democrats hold a 55-25 supermajority in the lower house, one more seat than they need for two-thirds (vacancies are assigned to the party that last held the seat). Democrats should have little trouble in 50 seats, while the GOP is set to keep 24 districts.
There are a few safe seats worth noting. On the Democratic side, AD-08 looks competitive on paper at only 52-46 Obama. However, the Republican candidate, Doug Haaland, has been a terrible fundraiser and the GOP is focusing its efforts elsewhere. AD-57 is worth noting due to Democratic incumbent Ian Calderon's problems. The assemblyman's powerful relatives (including the aforementioned Sen. Ron Calderon) have attracted more than their share of legal problems, and while Ian hasn't been linked to anything, his family's situation isn't doing him any favors. Even so, while Calderon's margin of victory may not be impressive, he should still be safe in his 64-34 Obama seat. On the GOP side, there are two Obama seats that should stay in Republican hands. In AD-60, incumbent Eric Linder is blessed with a very weak opponent in his 51-46 Obama seat and should be set for re-election. Democrats hoped that they could take the open AD-40, a 53-45 Obama seat. Unfortunately, Kathleen Henry has been a miserable fundraiser and this race doesn't appear to be on any target lists.
Of the six seats left, Democrats need to win four to keep the supermajority. Three of these seats will take a little effort but Team Blue should hold them, while three will be a lot more competitive. In AD-16, which includes a bit of the East Bay in Northern California, the GOP is excited about their candidate, Catharine Baker. Baker is hoping to use labor as a wedge issue against the union-backed Democrat Tim Sbranti, who serves as mayor of Dublin. Baker is citing a recent BART strike to make her argument that she'd be a better assemblymember, and her allies recently leaked a poll showing a tight race. Still, this is a 58-40 Obama seat and Sbranti has heavily outspent Baker. Unless there's a surprise, he should be the clear favorite.
Two Democratic freshmen need to work for re-election but should come out on top. In AD-32, Democrat Rudy Salas faces a rematch with Pedro Rios, whom he beat 53-47 in 2012. This Obama 56-42 Central Valley seat is prone to poor Democratic turnout (it takes up much of the same territory as SD-14) but Salas' incumbency should insulate him somewhat. Rios has been a weak fundraiser and several Republican elected officials are backing Salas over him.
Over in Torrance's AD-66, Democrat Al Muratsuchi faces a challenge from businessman David Hadley. This district went Obama 54-43 and the GOP has held out some hope Hadley can make this a race. This has been an expensive contest with Muratsuchi holding a small $512,000 to $473,000 cash-on-hand edge, but only after he outspent Hadley $710,000 to $202,000 in the last three months. Torrance has suffered from job losses and Hadley is too well-funded to count out, but Muratsuchi should be favored.
Assuming there are no nasty surprises in any of these seats, Democrats will need to win one of the three remaining districts: the Antelope Valley's AD-36; Ventura County's AD-44, or Orange County's AD-65. AD-36 is probably the GOP's best pickup opportunity anywhere in the state. Freshman Democrat Steve Fox narrowly won this ancestrally red seat in a shocker, benefiting from Obama's coattails and an overconfident opponent. Republican Palmdale Council member Tom Lackey isn't making the same mistake as Fox's last foe; Lackey outspent Fox $737,000 to $528,000 in recent months, and still holds a slight cash edge. Democrats are working hard to keep Fox in office, but it won't be easy. Obama only won 49-48 here, and two of Fox's former staffers are suing him. If Fox wins, it means Democrats have probably saved the supermajority, but that's a big if right now.
Democrats have a good chance to go on the offensive in AD-44, which Republican incumbent Jeff Gorell is vacating to run for Congress. The district went for Obama 52-46 and Team Blue has a strong candidate in Thousand Oaks Council member Jacqui Irwin. Irwin outspent Republican pastor Rob McCoy $735,000 to $266,000 and still has a cash-on-hand edge. However, Republicans aren't giving up on McCoy, and they recently donated a considerable amount to help him refill his coffers.
Finally in AD-65, freshman Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva faces a highly touted challenge from former congressional staffer Young Kim. This is another Obama 52-46 district, and it includes parts of Buena Park, Cypress, and Fullerton. Both parties are focusing heavily here and this has turned into a very expensive contest. Quirk-Silva outspent Kim $953,000 to $471,000 in the last three months but Kim holds a big $547,000 to $129,000 cash-on-hand advantage for the homestretch.
Conclusion:
There are 100 Senate and Assembly seats on the ballot, but both supermajorities look like they'll come down to just five. In the Senate, Democrats need to win either SD-14 or SD-34. Assuming nothing goes wrong elsewhere, Assembly Democrats need to win AD-36, AD-44, or AD-65. Republicans have less room for error, but midterm turnout gives them a good chance to win where they need to win. Right now, it's anyone's guess whether or not Democrats will keep their two-thirds majorities or if the GOP will score a big and long-awaited win in the Golden State.
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