We're getting to the point in the election cycle when we're totally awash in information about the Senate races, whether we want to know about them or not. And if you're paying close attention, you probably know a lot about the state of play in the gubernatorial and U.S. House races, too. However, some of the most momentous decisions in November's election won't come in any of those areas, but rather in the realm of ballot measures. That's especially true with Congress, and the federal government in general, becoming so gridlocked. More and more of the important policy decisions are happening at the state level, whether it's via state legislature or via direct democracy.
There's a wide disparity among the states in terms of how important ballot measures are to the big picture. Some states, mostly in the Northeast, don't even allow residents to vote directly on policy issues. Others only allow votes on legislatively referred questions. Many states, however, also allow the initiative process, in which voters can bring forth ballot questions themselves. In the West Coast states, in particular, many of the states' most fundamental policy questions are decided by everyone, not just the legislature. (You may dimly remember from your high school civics class that the initiative, referendum, and recall trio are sometimes called the "Oregon System"—that's where it started—and Oregon and its neighbors are still where you usually see the most use of these tools.)
Interestingly, there are fewer ballot measures up for consideration this year than in most years—158 around the country, which sounds like a lot, but there has been an average of 194 in even-numbered election years since 2000. In particular, only 35 of those are initiatives (as opposed to legislatively referred). That may be, in large part, in response to many states passing legislation making it more difficult to gather the necessary signatures to get a measure on the ballot. Many of them aren't that interesting, either—there are plenty of "Protects Artificial Reef Development Fund from being used for other purposes" or "Permits a disabled veteran to sell their homestead and acquire another homestead property and keep their homestead tax exemption" (those are from Louisiana and Oklahoma, respectively)—but there are also lots of ones hot-button issues like abortion, marijuana, and guns.
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Below the fold, we'll go state by state to look at some of the biggest ones. We'll hit only a few dozen of the most prominent questions, so if you're looking for complete coverage, check out
Ballotpedia, a whole wiki devoted to ballot measures, state legislatures, and other deep-in-the-weeds electoral matters. Also, if there's something else going on in your state that matters a lot to you but that we didn't cover, please feel free to chime in, in the comments, with additional information ....
ALASKA: We'll start with the Last Frontier, partly because of alphabetical order, but also because it has not one but three hot-button issues, all of which Democrats hope might drive turnout from younger, more casual voters who otherwise might not show up for a midterm (and it looks like Mark Begich will need as much of their help as possible as he tries to hold his Senate seat). For starters, Alaska is one of five states this year with minimum wage hikes on the ballot. In Alaska (which has an expensive cost of living), the wage would increase in steps to $9.75 by 2016. The measure seems on track to pass easily, with PPP finding 61-33 support for it in a September poll.
Libertarian-minded Alaska has traditionally had some of the nation's laxest marijuana laws, but it got beaten to the punch on fully legalized recreational marijuana in 2012 by Colorado and Washington. With Measure 2, Alaska may join these states in legalizing possession and sale of pot; however, in a bit of a surprise, PPP's August poll found the measure failing 44-49 (it may suffer from the same problems as Oregon's bid in 2012 did: unmotivated and disorganized supporters). The third measure in Alaska is a measure to stop mining projects in the Bristol Bay watershed that could harm fisheries. While the measure doesn't specifically mention the notorious Pebble Mine, that's basically what it's about. A Benenson poll from June finds the measure to stop the mine passing 62-33.
ARKANSAS: Arkansas may have the busiest schedule for ballot measures of any non-western state with three important issues up for grabs, and, as with Alaska, Democrats may be hoping that the promise of better pay and mood-altering substances motivates young voters to get out to vote, and help save Mark Pryor's butt while they're at it. One of those issues is the minimum wage, which would be raised to $8.50 by 2017. This seems on track to pass easily, leading 55-30 in a Suffolk poll from September, with even GOP Senate candidate Tom Cotton offering some lukewarm support for it.
Voters are also considering extending term limits for state legislators in exchange for stricter ethics rules, but voters don't seem interested, at least in the longer term limits part of the equation, with the measure failing 25-57 in a Hendrix College poll from April. The measure that could really change the cultural landscape in Arkansas, though, is a proposal to legalize sale and manufacture of alcohol statewide. That may sound somewhat odd in the 21st century, but many counties in Arkansas are still either partly or totally dry, perhaps more so than any other state, and this would end that county-by-county regime. No polls seem to be available of this question, though.
CALIFORNIA: California has a whole slew of ballot questions, as the state often does. Two of them seem uncontroversial on the face but have gigantic amounts of money opposing them. Proposition 45 requires approval by the state insurance commissioner before health insurance rates can increase, and doctors and insurers have put $37 million into opposing this, but it's still passing in the polls by wide margins. Proposition 46 would increase the caps on non-medical damages in medical malpractice suits (from $250,000 to $1 million) and would also require drug testing of doctors. The physicians have fought this one even harder, putting $57 million into opposing it, and unfortunately, that seems to be working, as support fell from 58-30 in the July Field Poll to 34-37 in the August Field Poll.
The most potentially far-reaching ballot measure, though, has seen much less money spent on it. Proposition 47 would reclassify most nonviolent crimes as misdemeanors, aiming to stem the tide of offenders entering California's overcrowded and budget-busting prison system. A recent PPIC poll found the measure passing 62-25, showing that sentencing reform is an issue that plays well on both sides of the ideological spectrum.
COLORADO: Colorado has seen a number of "personhood" amendments try and fail over the years, and 2014 is no exception. This time, Amendment 67 is something of a stealth approach, trying to get the personhood foot in the door by limiting its scope to including a fetus as "person" in criminal and wrongful death cases (where crime or negligence harms a fetus). There don't seem to be any polls of this question, but there's hope it won't do any better than previous attempts (and will motivate some younger voters to turn out for Mark Udall in the Senate race while they're at it).
FLORIDA: While Alaska and Oregon may join Colorado and Washington in the realm of fully legalized marijuana, Florida is running about 20 years behind those states, with a proposal to allow medical marijuana, something that's entirely uncontroversial in much of the country. Despite opposition from most of the state's Republicans (and from, bafflingly, Debbie Wasserman Schultz), this proposal has led by wide margins in more than a dozen polls, most recently 51-33 in a SurveyUSA poll from earlier this week.
ILLINOIS: Illinois is one of five states with minimum wage increases on the ballot this year, although unlike the other states, it's not binding and merely an "advisory question" that would recommend boosting the wage to $10 in 2015, one of the highest rates in the nation. There's also an advisory vote on an additional 3 percent tax on incomes of over $1 million per year. In a Chicago Tribune poll from several weeks ago, there was 69 percent support for the minimum wage increase and 56 percent support for the millionaire's tax.
One binding question on the ballot (a legislatively referred constitutional amendment), though, would create a "right to vote," stating that no one can be denied the right to register to vote or cast a ballot based on a number of protected classes. It's vaguely worded, but pretty clearly intended to put a pre-emptive stop to any future attempts to impose Voter ID requirements.
MASSACHUSETTS: The biggest issue on the ballot in the Bay State this year seems to be a question of whether to repeal a 2011 law allowing resort casinos. Most of the local political establishment, as well as unions, are opposed to repealing the law, allowing the possibility of casinos to continue. Polls have shown a close race, with a recent UMass poll finding the initiative failing only 42-48.
NEBRASKA: Nebraska is one of the many states with minimum wage questions on the ballot this year. The proposal would boost the rate to $9 by 2016. There doesn't seem to be any polling of the race, so it's hard to tell how it might fare.
NEW YORK: New York's Proposal 1 sounds like a good deal at first glance, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment proposing a redistricting commission, instead of having the legislature do it. You need to read the fine print, though: It's not so much a California-style "independent" commission as a New Jersey-style "bipartisan" commission, composed of members appointed by the state legislature, and likely to just do what the legislature would do anyway. While both parties support it, good-government actors like Common Cause, NYPIRG, and Zephyr Teachout are unenthused.
NORTH DAKOTA: North Dakota's personhood measure (a legislatively referred constitutional amendment) doesn't beat around the bush the way the Colorado one does. It simply asks whether "life begins at conception" should be added to the state constitution. It doesn't specify what would happen beyond that platitude, though, and a Univeristy of North Dakota poll from last week showed the measure passing 50-33.
OREGON: The main event in Oregon may be Measure 91, which would legalize possession of marijuana and direct the state's Liquor Control Commission to regulate the sale of marijuana. While your pop culture-formed impressions of Oregon might lead you to conclude that this should be a slam dunk, support is actually a bit lukewarm, and Oregon rejected a similar measure in 2012. The most recent SurveyUSA poll showed it passing only 44-40. One positive indicator, though, is that no one has spent any money opposing the measure.
Oregon is also playing catch-up with several of its neighbors in terms of moving to a Top 2 primary system, a la Washington and California. Measure 90 would move Oregon to this system as well. There don't seem to be any polls of this question, but there doesn't seem to be any organized opposition to it, other than the state's various minor parties, worried that they'll get further shut out of the political process.
Finally, Oregon also has a proposal to require labeling of genetically modified food, Measure 92. The fact that a similar measure failed in Washington in 2013, after a last-minute ad blitz by Big Ag, may suggest potential trouble for this question, but this is one area in which Oregon's quirky left and right seem to have common cause (it's worth noting that two fairly conservative southern Oregon counties have already passed county-level GMO labeling measures), and a June poll from local pollster DHM found it passing by a whopping 77-12, although it should be remembered that Washington saw similar numbers early in the campaign before the ad blitz.
SOUTH DAKOTA: South Dakota is the last of the five states with minimum wage increases on the ballot. Measure 18 would boost the wage to $8.50 and then adjust it each subsequent year for inflation.
WASHINGTON: Washington may be ground zero for a novel legal question this year: What happens when the voters pass two diametrically opposed ballot measures at the same time? That's a possibility, with dueling Initiatives 591 (prohibiting implementation of gun purchase background checks more strict than at the federal level) and 594 (imposing stricter background checks on all gun purchasers).
Now you wouldn't think that the voters are dumb enough to approve both measures, but that's exactly what an Elway Poll from April found, with voters approving 591 by a 55-33 margin, and approving 594 by a 72-19 margin. That's probably because of tricky wording of 591, which starts out by prohibiting "confiscation of firearms without due process" and then tacks on the stuff about background checks. On the other hand, that potentially gives the courts an out, if voters do approve both—they can strike down 591 because state law prohibits ballot measures from being about more than one unrelated thing (which is how many Tim Eyman anti-tax measures met their demise). We'll also need to see if that problem persists in future polls; it may not, as support for 591 may fall after advertising campaigns have clarified the difference between the two measures.
It's an unusually quiet year for ballot measures in the Evergreen State, where the only other binding question presented is Initiative 1351, which would set mandatory limits on K-12 class sizes. That initiative doesn't include a revenue source to pay for those smaller classes, though, so it may have little practical impact when it runs up against Washington's uncooperative legislature.
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