Besides the dismal and disheartening reports of the Baltimore Orioles' playoff losses to the Kansas City Royals, this morning's Baltimore Sun headlined the results of its latest poll on Maryland's race for governor. The poll shows Lt. Governor Brown holding a 49 to 42 percent lead Republican Larry Hogan, with 9 percent undecided. According to the Sun article, Brown's 7 point lead may be tenuous because Brown's
backers are less solid in their conviction than Hogan supporters. And many in Brown's camp are younger voters, a bloc that historically is less likely to vote. "Hogan has a much more engaged, committed base of support right now," said Opinion Works President Steve Raabe. . . . "It's very clear that for him [Brown], this is a turnout game."
Brown holds an 84% lead in his home country of Prince Georges, a majority AA county that adjoins Washington DC, and a similar overwhelming lead in majority AA Baltimore City. Brown enjoys the support of 88 percent of black voters, while Hogan enjoys the support of 56% of white voters compared to 36% for Brown. Hogan enjoys a double digit lead among voters 65 and older, while Brown has an equally large lead among voters under 50, with voters 50 to 64 equally divided. 48 percent of those surveyed agree that Maryland is on the wrong track, with 44 percent saying the state is on the right track. 98 percent of those who say Maryland is on the wrong track state they will be voting for Hogan, while 80 percent of those who answered that Maryland is on the right track state they will be voting for Brown.
Hogan has promised major tax cuts without cutting state services. Brown has countered that Hogan's math doesn't add up, and that massive cuts on the state level will simply force counties to raise property taxes. Hogan has avoided social issues such as abortion, gay marriage and guns, and has mouthed this year's Republican line that birth control should be available in pharmacies over the counter. Brown's attack ads have accused Hogan of having a secret plan to outlaw abortion, with Hogan countering he has no such plan, that the voters have spoken on this issue, and he will simply follow the law. A Sun columnist today, whose views are generally liberal, questions Brown's tactics.
A historical note: Carrying Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties and Baltimore City was barely enough to elect Democrat Parris Glendening governor in 1994, but was not enough to elect Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002. The battle will be fought in Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, where Anthony Brown needs to come close if he doesn't actually carry these counties. Hogan, like Ehrlich in 2002, is posing as a moderate, whereas Glendening's opponent Ellen Sauerbrey ran hard to the right, promising a cross the board 1/3 tax cut and 1/3 slash in state spending in all areas except police and prisons. Hogan is avoiding Sauerbrey's mistake and is trying to duplicate the tactics of Bob Ehrlich that got him elected governor.
So all you guys in Maryland, lets not have a repeat of 2002. Lets work to keep our state in progressive hands!