Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R)
Leading Off:
• ID-Gov: Republican Gov. Butch Otter has never been particularly popular even in dark red Idaho, but it was still a surprise when the Republican Governor's Association committed six figures to his re-election at the beginning of October. It was hard to believe that the RGA would spend so much so late in the cycle unless they were worried about Otter's future, and a new Public Policy Polling survey confirms that this contest is a lot more interesting than anyone had a reason to think.
PPP finds Otter leading wealthy conservative Democrat A.J. Balukoff only 39-36, with four independent candidates taking a combined 12 percent, including 3 percent for the famous perennial candidate who legally changed his name to "Pro-Life." Otter appears to have worn out his welcome with his constituents, and he sports an underwater 36-49 job approval rating. By contrast Balukoff, who has been freely spending his own money, has a 38-32 favorability score.
There have been very few other polls out of the Gem State, but there's another good reason to believe that PPP and the RGA are seeing similar numbers. The RGA just went on the air with another ad, this one tying Balukoff to Obama as closely as possible. Balukoff was a Romney supporter in 2012 but of course that's not stopping the RGA from linking him to the president, whom PPP of course finds is very unpopular here.
Democrats haven't won a gubernatorial election in Idaho since Cecil Andrus's landslide 1990 re-election victory, and Balukoff still has a remarkably uphill climb. When supporters of the third-party coterie are asked to pick between Otter and Balukoff, the governor's overall lead legs out to 47-38. Independent candidates tend to lose support as the campaign heads toward Election Day, so Otter stands to benefit. And some late polls in 2006 found Democrat Jerry Brady looking very competitive against Otter, but the Republican still won 53-44, so he's pulled out tough victories before.
Still, it's clear that Otter does not have this race locked up yet. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
3Q Fundraising:
• KY-Sen: Alison Grimes (D): $4.9 million raised, $4.4 million cash-on-hand
• NC-Sen: Thom Tillis (R): $3.4 million raised, $2.2 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
• GA-Sen: This is "holy heck" news if true:
National Democrats are reserving $1 million more for ads in Georgia, where they see the Senate race moving in their direction thanks to attacks against Republican David Perdue's record of outsourcing. [...]
The most recent Democratic internal polls show Democrat Michelle Nunn, a former nonprofit executive, leading Perdue and close to 50 percent, the threshold she would need to reach to avoid a Jan. 6 runoff, according to people who have reviewed the polling.
Just days ago, the NRSC announced it was dumping
another $1.45 million into Georgia, which we speculated might represent an attempt to finish off Nunn and even help Perdue clear 50 percent next month to avoid a runoff. Seems like the exact opposite is the case.
• IA-Sen: Physician Doug Butzier, the Libertarian candidate for Senate in Iowa, died in a plane crash on Monday night. Butzier was piloting a single-engine airplane and was the only person aboard when it crashed near Dubuque Airport. His name will remain on the ballot because voting has already begun.
• KS-Sen: Oh wow. When you don't face any serious re-election challenges for decades, all of a sudden, all this old oppo that should have emerged years ago finally comes cascading out all at once:
"I plan only to serve two terms in the U.S. Senate," said Pat Roberts in 1996.
Roberts is now seeking his fourth term in the Senate. The problem for Greg Orman, who is running to the max on an anti-politician platform and could really make good use of this quote—there's even video—is that he lacks the infrastructure to do hatchet-work for him. If he were a Democrat, the DSCC or Senate Majority PAC or some other super PAC would be clobbering Roberts on his behalf. Do these "
Billionaires for Orman" know what they're doing—and do they have the stomach for dirty work?
And there's plenty more out there. For instance, even though Roberts' own campaign has described him as a "tireless warrior for Kansas agriculture," it turns out he's missed almost two thirds of all meetings of the Senate Agriculture Committee since 2000. Usually attacks about skipped votes or hearings don't get much traction, but given that Roberts has rather pointedly spent so little time at home in Kansas, how is it possible he didn't have the time to attend committee meetings in D.C., where he actually lives?
What's more, the topics of some of the specific meetings he missed are pretty damning and include things like disaster relief, avian flu, and drought conditions "more severe than the peak year of the Dust Bowl," according to a government report. Orman may want to stay positive, but polls have shown Republicans coming home to Roberts, and either he or his allies are going to have to put the hurt on the incumbent. Bright and sunny just ain't gonna cut it, even in the Sunflower state.
• KY-Sen: Unfortunately, as exciting as the news out of Georgia is for Democrats, it looks like Kentucky is headed in the opposite direction. The DSCC has gone dark in the Bluegrass State and isn't committing to running any further ads there in support of Alison Grimes. While Grimes' own pollster Mark Mellman has insisted she's ahead, most other polling has show Mitch McConnell with small but stubborn leads, and he's up about 4 points in the HuffPo Pollster average.
• Polling: Senate stuff:
• AK-Sen: Rasmussen: Dan Sullivan (R): 48, Mark Begich (D-inc): 45 (Sept.: 48-43 Sullivan)
• KS-Sen: Remington Research (R): Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48, Greg Orman (D): 46 (Sept.: 50-42 Orman)
• KY-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50, Alison Grimes (D): 47 (Sept.: 51-41 McConnell)
• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research: Gary Peters (D): 50, Terri Lynn Land (R): 39 (Oct. 9: 48-43 Peters)
• NC-Sen: SurveyUSA: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44, Thom Tillis (R): 41, Sean Haugh (Lib): 7 (Sept.: 46-43-5 Hagan)
• OR-Sen: DHM Research: Jeff Merkley (D-inc): 47, Monica Wehby (R): 26
It's encouraging to see Hagan holding at +3 in spite of so much going to hell for Democrats elsewhere, though in a two-way race, she'd trail 46-45, so she really needs Haugh to hold on to some support. On the flipside, if Remington is right—and we saw this happening to a certain extent
in PPP's new poll—the tide has really shifted toward the GOP in Kansas.
Gubernatorial:
• Polling: Gubernatorial time!
• FL-Gov: CNN/ORC: Charlie Crist (D): 44, Rick Scott (R-inc): 44, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 9
• FL-Gov: Gravis (R): Scott: 44, Crist: 42 (Aug.: 37-37 tie)
• FL-Gov: Øptimus (R): Crist: 41, Scott: 39, Wyllie: 13 (Oct. 5: 40-39-13 Crist)
• FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls: Scott: 45, Crist: 44, Wyllie: 8
• FL-Gov: SurveyUSA: Crist: 45, Scott: 41 (Oct. 6: 44-42-6 Crist)
• IL-Gov: We Ask America: Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44, Bruce Rauner (R): 41 (Oct. 6: 44-40 Quinn)
• KS-Gov: Remington Research (R): Sam Brownback (R-inc): 48, Paul Davis (D): 45 (Sept.: 46-44 Davis)
• MD-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Anthony Brown (D): 46, Larry Hogan (R): 43
• ME-Gov: Ipsos: Mike Michaud (D): 42, Paul LePage (R-inc): 36, Eliot Cutler (I): 16
• ME-Gov: Normington Petts (D): Michaud: 41, LePage: 39, Cutler: 13 (July: 41-37-13 Michaud) (conducted for Michaud)
• MI-Gov: Mitchell Research: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 47, Mark Schauer (D): 44 (Oct. 9: 47-46 Snyder)
• OR-Gov: DHM Research: John Kitzhaber (D-inc): 50, Dennis Richardson (R): 29
Five polls of Florida in one day! And what do they all collectively show? A tossup, of course. It's pretty amazing that Crist has weathered Scott's mega-million dollar ad storm, but that was his only strategy. Now he just has to find a way to scoop up a few extra voters in the final three weeks. It's only the most difficult task he's faced yet.
Meanwhile, it's a little odd that Mike Michaud would release his own internal that shows the race tighter than Ipsos' independent survey does. However, after that weird Pan Atlantic poll last week put LePage ahead, perhaps Michaud wants to be able to say that "multiple" polls since then have now found him on top.
House:
• IA-01, CT-05: Here's the story of two races that Daily Kos Elections currently has classified as Lean Democratic that appear to be taking different directions. One is IA-01, the seat open left by Bruce Braley and his Senate bid. No one has given much previous thought about Democrat Pat Murphy not being able to hold this light-blue seat, but now the DCCC is putting $600,000 into an ad buy to bolster his efforts.
To pay for that, the D-Trip is taking the money out of CT-05, where Elizabeth Esty has proven to be one of the freshman swing-seat Dems in better shape. It's not clear if the DCCC is truly done in CT-05 or if this is just a temporary drawdown; in fact, they just released a new ad here, which you can find in our ad roundup section. But new polling from Esty (see below) suggests she's doing all right.
• IL-13, MI-01: About a week ago, the DCCC canceled its ad reservations in IL-13 and MI-01, both of them Republican-held seats. With the House Majority PAC also pulling out of both districts, it looked pretty clear that Democrats Ann Callis and Jerry Cannon were being triaged by the national party. However, the DCCC just released new ads in both IL-13 and MI-01.
There are plenty of valid explanations about what's happening. On the pessimistic side, the DCCC may just be filling out the last leg of some old reservations, or perhaps the committee simply couldn't cancel these reservations without paying a financial penalty. On the more optimistic side, the group may have freed up some extra money and decided to use it in both seats. It's also possible that the DCCC is seeing better poll numbers coming out of both districts and has decided to wade back in. We'll definitely be watching to see if the DCCC and its allies return or if this is their last hurrah here.
• Polling: House poll attack!
• CT-05: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Elizabeth Esty (D-inc): 52, Mark Greenberg (R): 36 (conducted for Esty)
• IA-04: The Polling Company (R): Steve King (R-inc): 51, Jim Mowrer (D): 38 (conducted for King)
• IL-10: Lester (D)/GSG (D): Brad Schneider (D-inc): 48, Bob Dold! (R): 40 (conducted for the DCCC)
• ME-02: Pan Atlantic SMS: Emily Cain (D): 36, Bruce Poliquin (R): 33, Blaine Richardson (I): 6
• NJ-03: Monmouth: Tom MacArthur (R): 51, Aimee Belgard (D): 41
• Esty's poll is the first we've ever seen from Connecticut's 5th District, and it buttresses the DCCC's decision to move money from there to Iowa's open 1st District (see item above). Greenberg's response, which bordered on hysteria, also supports the notion that these numbers are legit.
• The new IL-10 poll is the second from the DCCC; last month, an in-house robopoll found Schneider up 5. Still no response from the GOP.
• Monmouth's poll out of New Jersey is certainly ugly-looking for Belgard, who has to hope it's wrong. It may well be, though: A recent MacArthur internal only put him up 44-37, so the fact that Monmouth is even more optimistic than the best GOP polling out there warrants a bit of skepticism.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: The DSCC continues a recent Democratic ad campaign aimed at Republican Tom Cotton's vote against the Violence Against Women Act. Also on the Democratic side, the NEA features a teacher hitting Cotton for taking student loans but wanting to gut them now.
• AK-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Dan Sullivan on abortion and birth control. On the GOP side, American Crossroads continues to accuse Democratic Sen. Mark Begich for leaving Anchorage with a financial mess as mayor.
• CO-Sen Ending Spending takes quotes from The Denver Post's editorial endorsing Republican Cory Gardner to argue Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is running a one-issue campaign. Udall also has two new ads (here and here). The first focuses on Udall's fight against the NSA's data collection. The second ad hits Gardner on abortion and women's health (aka the "one-issue" the GOP says Udall is campaigning on).
• GA-Sen: In recent days, both the DSCC and NRSC have made ad reservations in the Peach State, ensuring that this ad war will get even more intense.
Of course, it's not like the ad campaign was low-key to begin with. Democrat Michelle Nunn is once again taking advantage of Republican David Perdue's recent defense of his career outsourcing jobs, featuring mostly unfavorable news reports about Perdue. Perdue uses his ad to defend his job record, arguing it's Obama's policies that are costing Georgia jobs. The GOP-friendly Ending Spending also goes negative, arguing several times that a vote for Nunn is a vote for Obama.
• IA-Sen: The NRSC and their allies have been hitting Democrats over the rise of ISIS in several states, and they take the show to Iowa. They argue that Democrat Bruce Braley voted against funding combat operations to stop ISIS and is lying about it now. On the Democratic side, NextGen Climate throws in $258,000.
• KS-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce commits $500,000 to help Republican Sen. Pat Roberts.
• KY-Sen: Kentuckians for Strong Leadership claims that Democrat Alison Grimes is weak when it comes to protecting coal. The size of the buy is a hefty $1,080,000. The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition also spends another $111,000 for the GOP. On the Democratic side, the United Mine Workers praise Grimes.
• LA-Sen: American Crossroads claims that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu's vote for Obamacare severely cut Medicare, while also arguing that Landrieu has embraced Washington and left Louisiana behind.
• NC-Sen: The DSCC spends another $843,000 for Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan.
• NH-Sen: Crossroads GPS adapts an old ad they used in Arkansas months ago for use against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. It features a spelling bee where the kid spells Shaheen as O-b-a-m-a, which the judges declare is close enough.
• SD-Sen The NRSC airs their first spot in a race they thought they had locked up months ago. It portrays both Democrat Rick Weiland and independent Larry Pressler as liberals who don't look out for South Dakota. Also for the GOP, the American Chemistry Council spends $428,000 calling Republican Mike Rounds a job creator.
• VA-Sen: Two positive spots from Democratic Sen. Mark Warner (here and here). The first highlights Warner's record helping veterans. The second features Warner's Republican predecessor, John Warner, praising Mark for putting Virginia first. The two unrelated Warners ran against each other in 1996 (one of Mark's slogans was "Mark, not John") but became friends afterwards.
• WV-Sen: Republican Shelly Moore Capito is not making the same mistake Mike Rounds made in South Dakota and assuming the race is locked up. Capito's new spot features just text from newspapers set to dramatic music tying Democrat Natalie Tennant to Obama.
• American Chemistry Council: Various pro-GOP expenditures.
• AR-Gov: Democrat Mike Ross continues to hit Republican Asa Hutchinson on education.
• AZ-Gov: The DGA-backed Restore Arizona's Future goes after Republican Doug Ducey on education cuts.
• CA-Gov: With little money and a massive deficit in the polls, it's not a surprise that Republican Neel Kashkari is trying some ... unconventional ads. This one is certainly memorable: It shows a child drowning in a pool as some kind of metaphor for Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown not rescuing kids in failing schools. It's not the most clear or compelling argument—actually, it's downright disturbing—but it's not like Kashkari has anything to lose.
• CO-Gov: The DGA-backed Make Colorado Great has a Spanish-language spot against Republican Bob Beauprez.
• CT-Gov: Both major outside groups have new spots. The RGA-aligned Grow Connecticut continues to hit Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy on taxes, while the DGA-backed Connecticut Forward continues to portray Republican Tom Foley as someone who only cares about other rich people.
• FL-Gov: Two new spots from Democrat Charlie Crist (here and here). The first hits Republican Gov. Rick Scott for coming up short on his jobs promises. The second features former Republican state Rep. Mike Fasano praising him. Fasano is very popular in Pasco County, a red-leaning but competitive area.
On the other side of the aisle, the state Republican Party rolls out former Gov. Jeb Bush to promote Scott.
• HI-Gov: The NEA hits Republican Duke Aiona over former Gov. Linda Lingle's treatment of teachers and schools. Aiona serves as Lingle's lieutenant governor from 2002 to 2010.
• MA-Gov: The RGA-backed CommonWealth Future paints Democrat Martha Coakley as an out-of-touch career politician.
• MD-Gov: Democrat Anthony Brown emphasizes his war record.
• MI-Gov: The RGA goes after Democrat Mark Schauer on cap and trade, arguing it's a devastating tax.
• NH-Gov: The NRA uses one of its cookie-cutter ads against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.
• RI-Gov: Republican Allan Fung.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott has two new spots (here and here). The first ties Democrat Wendy Davis to Obama. The second is a reaction to a recent Davis ad, where she argued that Abbott doesn't help victims despite suing after he was crippled. Abbott's spot features clips of media personalities condemning Davis' ad as desperate.
• WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker continues to argue the state is recovering under him and that Democrat Mary Burke will take it backwards.
• AZ-01: YG Network portrays Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick as an Obama crony.
• AZ-02: The American Action Network portrays Democratic Rep. Ron Barber as a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi. Barber has a negative Spanish-language spot against Republican Martha McSally.
• CA-07: The American Action Network goes after Democratic Rep. Ami Bera on Obamacare.
• CA-26: The American Future Fund targets Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley as a typical politician.
• CA-36: Two spots from Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz (here and here). The first portrays him as a public servant who wants to help others, while the second is a Spanish-language ad.
• CA-52: Some very nasty accusations have been leveled at Republican Carl DeMaio in recent days, but right now the GOP is standing by him in this swing seat. The Congressional Leadership Fund calls Democratic Rep. Scott Peters "slippery," accusing him of being unethical and fiscally irresponsible.
• CT-05: The DCCC continues to feature a clip of Republican Mark Greenberg calling Social Security a failure.
• FL-02: Democrat Gwen Graham defends herself on national security.
• GA-12: The American Future Fund argues Democratic Rep. John Barrow has no accomplishments in Washington.
• IA-03: Americans for Responsible Solutions argues Republican David Young supports keeping a loophole in place that allows men convicted of domestic abuse to buy guns.
• IL-10: The Congressional Leadership Fund paints Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider as someone who hides his own taxes while wanting to raise everyone else's. Defending Main Street also spends $100,000 for the GOP. The DCCC fires back, portraying Republican Bob Dold! as a social conservative.
• IL-12: Republican Mike Bost ties Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart to Obama, Gov. Pat Quinn, and even Rod Blagojevich, 'cause why not? The DCCC goes after Bost, once again painting him as a reckless angry guy.
• MI-01: Democrat Jerry Cannon continues to emphasize his military and law enforcement service while portraying Republican Rep. Dan Benishek as a dishonest politician.
• MT-AL: Democrat John Lewis argues he's more supportive of gun rights than Republican Ryan Zinke; anyone watching the ad couldn't be blamed for thinking they came from the reverse parties. Zinke meanwhile paints Lewis as a Washington insider.
• NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster goes after Republican Marilinda Garcia on education.
• NJ-02: American Unity PAC for Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo.
• NY-19: American Unity PAC for Republican Rep. Chris Gibson.
• VA-10: The Congressional Leadership Fund jumps on Democrat John Foust for questioning if his Republican opponent Barbara Comstock ever had a real job. The spot features a female lawyer arguing that Foust's comments were sexist. Foust portrays Comstock as unethical.
• Congressional Leadership Fund: Speaker John Boehner's allied super PAC the Congressional Leadership Fund is joining with the American Action Network to spend a total of $1.6 million in AZ-01, AZ-02, NY-01, and TX-23.
• House Majority PAC: The pro-Democratic group is airing new spots in 10 districts, and they've helpfully provided the size of the buy for each seat. We have AZ-01 for $423,000; AZ-09 for $337,000; CA-31 for $112,000; CO-06 for $551,000; NE-02 for $92,000; NY-23 for $49,000; NY-24 for $58,000; TX-23 for $153,000; VA-10 for $737,000; and WV-03 for $229,000.
As we recently noted, HMP's ad buys in CO-06 and VA-10 come just after the DCCC canceled its own reservations in both GOP-held seats. HMP's two largest expenditures in this batch are in these districts, so it looks like this may have been a case of the DCCC handing off the races to HMP rather than giving up on them.
• NRCC: The Republicans have a truckload of new ads in AZ-01, AZ-02, FL-02 (here and here), FL-26, GA-12, IA-03, IL-12, ME-02, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NY-21, TX-23, and WV-03. Only FL-02 and IA-03 are held by the Republicans.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.