Here at Daily Kos, we know how high the stakes are in the 2014 senate elections. Republican control of the senate would mean worsening gridlock, with repeated "hostage taking" scenarios and resultant shut downs, credit rating downgrades, and possible default. Not to mention no hope for an increase in the minimum wage, infrastructure repair, student debt relief, or meaningful immigration reform. I don't even want to think about what will happen if there is an vacancy on the supreme court that needs to go through a republican senate! It seems to be all upside for the republicans, and all downside for the democrats.
Not so fast says Stu Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report.
. . . if the GOP fails to capture the Senate this year, 2016 could turn into an unmitigated disaster for the party. And for that reason, Republicans are under extremely heavy pressure to take back the Senate in November.
Jump below the orange scroll to see Rothenberg's take on what's at stake for republicans.
As Rothenberg explains, in 2010 GOP contributors were "disappointed" and "discouraged" after republicans failed to gain a majority in the senate in a wave year, when the party threw away three winnable senate seats in Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware. Fast forward to 2012, and the republican money men are "filled with optimism" about the chances for picking up the three to four senate seats needed to gain a majority. (Only three senate seats would be needed in the case of Romney win)
But when November rolled around, Democrats not only kept control of the Senate, they actually gained two more seats, making it that much more difficult for the GOP to take over the chamber this cycle. And many Republican donors who deluded themselves into believing Mitt Romney had a strong chance to win the White House and that GOP control of the Senate was within reach felt deflated and misled.
After the loss in 2012, donors were skeptical and reluctant to part with their cash in 2013, and through the end of September, the DSCC and the DCCC had out raised their republican counterparts. This in spite of a favorable senate map for the republicans, lagging public support of the president, and expected midterm democratic voter drop off.
Rothenberg concludes:
If Republicans don’t net those six Senate seats this cycle, they are going to find themselves trying to explain to disgruntled, disappointed donors and voters why and how they will do better in a more difficult political environment.
And they are not likely to have a very good answer.
I encourage everyone to read the full essay linked above.