Most conservative religious groups are now forced to confront the reality that the tide has turned on marriage equality. It has now become legal in a majority of states. Depending on what SCOTUS does in the matter we may go along in an ambiguous situation where people in some states continue to be denied access for a period of time before it becomes conclusively the law of the land. However, it is impossible to imagine a scenario in which the tide would turn back the other way. Of course the die hard opponents of ME aren't any more willing to give up this battle than they have been on women's reproductive rights even those rights were established as public policy over 40 years ago. Plans are underway to take a page out of the play book that has been successful in curtailing reproductive rights and apply it to ME.
Religious exemptions are next battle for gay marriage
Alarmed by the broad expansion of same-sex marriage set in motion by the U.S. Supreme Court, religious conservatives are moving their fight to state legislatures — seeking exemptions that would allow some groups, companies and people with religious objections to refuse benefits or service for gay spouses.
But winning sweeping carve-outs for faith-affiliated adoption agencies or individual wedding vendors will be an uphill battle. Public attitudes against exceptions have hardened, and efforts by faith groups in states where courts, not lawmakers, recognized same-sex unions have had little success.
That argument gained currency after the Hobby Lobby ruling last June. The high court decided the arts-and-crafts chain and other closely held private businesses with religious objections could opt out of providing employees the free contraceptive coverage required by the Affordable Care Act. While conservatives rejoiced, liberal groups were outraged, and many vowed to aggressively oppose exceptions for faith groups. Soon after, prominent gay rights and civil rights groups withdrew their support from the federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act, or ENDA, because of the wide reach of its exemption.
Gay rights groups have tactically made concessions for religious organizations in crafting legislation. That is the same thing that happened with the contraceptive mandate of the ACA. Exceptions were made for actual church organizations. However, SCOTUS then came along and used the Religious Freedom Restoration Act as a basis of extending the same exemption to a substantial portion of private employers.
Up until now the few court cases that have come up in relation the same sex marriages have dealt with public accommodations issues such as caterers and photographers who refused to provide service. This new approach raises the possibility of more significant actions such as allowing an employer to refuse to provide spousal employee benefits to same sex partners. It doesn't seem impossible that the same judicial logic used in the Hobby Lobby decision could be applied to this situation. It is of course premature to predict what will actually happen in legislatures and courts, but it does seem very probable that they will give it a try.