Eliot Cutler, probably the dude on the right
Leading Off:
• ME-Gov: Eliot Cutler is looking like a man defeated. Cutler, an independent who finished second in the 2010 gubernatorial race, has utterly failed to replicate his prior success and is mired at about 15 percent in the polls. Now, after spending a ton of his own money on his repeat effort, he's all but gone dark on the airwaves in the final weeks of the campaign.
This week, Cutler's spending all of $4,000 on TV, which, as Ethan Strimling reports, means he's getting outspent 100-to-1 by Democrat Mike Michaud and Republican Gov. Paul LePage when you factor in activity from outside groups. That's good news for Maine Democrats, since as almost all the polling has shown, Cutler hurts Michaud far more than he hurts LePage.
Senate:
• SD-Sen: State law enforcement has long been looking into the EB-5 visa scandal plaguing Republican ex-Gov. Mike Rounds, and they've also believed that the FBI was conducting a parallel investigation, but the feds had refused to confirm its existence—until now. On Wednesday, the chief counsel for the regional office in Minneapolis (the closest outpost to South Dakota) stated on the record that the FBI has an "active investigation" involving EB-5, though he would not provide any further details. Of course, it's unlikely to yield any fruit before Election Day, but it's yet another headache for Rounds.
• Polling:
• CO-Sen: Ipsos: Cory Gardner (R): 47, Mark Udall (D-inc): 45
• GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage: Michelle Nunn (D): 47, David Perdue (R): 45, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 4 (Oct. 1: 47-43-3 Perdue)
• IA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Joni Ernst (R): 48, Bruce Braley (D): 46 (Oct. 15: 47-45 Ernst)
• KS-Sen: Rasmussen: Greg Orman (I): 49, Pat Roberts (R-inc): 44 (Sept.: 45-40 Orman)
• MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA: Gary Peters (D): 45, Terri Lynn Land (R): 34 (Sept.: 42-33 Peters)
• MI-Sen: PPP (D): Peters: 53, Land: 39 (Oct. 3: 49-42 Peters) (conducted for LCV)
• NH-Sen: ARG: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 49, Scott Brown (R): 48 (Sept.: 53-43 Shaheen)
• NH-Sen: CNN/ORC: Shaheen: 49, Brown: 47 (Sept.: 48-48 tie)
• NH-Sen: New England College: Brown: 48, Shaheen: 47 (Oct. 9: 48-47 Brown)
• SD-Sen: POS (R): Mike Rounds (R): 48, Rick Weiland (D): 24, Larry Pressler (I): 16 (Oct. 13: 39-31-18 Rounds-Weiland-Pressler) (conducted for Rounds)
Nunn continues to reverse her trendline in Georgia and takes the lead in yet another poll, though it's not from a very reliable pollster. Peters, meanwhile, see his fifth double-digit advantage
in a row.
New Hampshire's definitely starting to look a lot dicier for Democrats. As of Thursday, the Daily Kos Election Outlook model, which runs entirely off of polls, was giving Shaheen a 63 percent chance at victory, down considerably from just a month ago. That number will get worse Friday, once this newest data is incorporated.
And in South Dakota, Rounds is claiming that recent Republican ads attacking both Weiland and Pressler have righted his foundering ship in dramatic fashion. In just one week, Rounds' pollster says he's tripled his advantage, going from an 8-point lead to a 24-point lead. That's an awfully big jump in such a short period of time, so let's see what Democratic polls have to say.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Uh, wow. Sarah Palin, queen of resentment, just endorsed the independent/Democratic ticket for governor in her home state of Alaska—a huge snub to GOP Gov. Sean Parnell, her successor and former lieutenant governor. Interestingly, Palin is chiefly pissed at Parnell for the controversial oil company tax cut he pushed last year, which dismantled a Palin-era program called ACES that featured, believe it or not, more progressive taxation of energy industry profits. Bill Walker, the independent candidate for governor, has made opposition to Parnell's tax cuts a centerpiece of his campaign.
• Polling:
• CO-Gov: Ipsos: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 46, Bob Beauprez (R): 46
• CO-Gov: Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper: 45, Beauprez: 44 (Oct. 15: 46-42 Beauprez)
• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage: Jason Carter (D): 44, Nathan Deal (R-inc): 44, Andrew Hunt (Lib): 5 (Oct. 1: 44-43-4 Deal)
• HI-Gov: Ward Research: David Ige (D): 47, Duke Aiona (R): 35, Mufi Hannemann (I): 12 (July: 41-34-15 Aiona-Ige-Hannemann)
• IL-Gov: APC Research: Bruce Rauner (R): 45, Pat Quinn (D-inc): 43 (Sept.: 48-37 Quinn)
• IL-Gov: Rasmussen: Rauner: 48, Quinn: 47 (Sept.: 44-42 Quinn)
• IL-Gov: Univ. of Illinois-Springfield: Rauner: 43, Quinn: 41
• MD-Gov: WPA (R): Anthony Brown (D): 42, Larry Hogan (R): 41 (May: 42-35 Brown) (conducted for Hogan)
• MI-Gov: PPP (D): Mark Schauer (D): 48, Rick Snyder (R): 48 (Oct. 3: 47-46 Snyder) (conducted for LCV)
• NH-Gov: ARG: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 53, Walt Havenstein (R): 43 (Sept.: 55-40 Hassan)
• NH-Gov: CNN/ORC: Hassan: 51, Havenstein: 45
• NH-Gov: New England College: Hassan: 51, Havenstein: 43 (Oct. 9: 49-44 Hassan)
• RI-Gov: Brown Univ.: Gina Raimondo (D): 42, Allan Fung (R): 31, Robert Healey (Moderate): 9
• TX-Gov: Crosswind: Greg Abbott (R): 52, Wendy Davis (D): 31
• TX-Gov: Univ. of Texas: Abbott: 54, Davis: 38 (June: 44-32 Abbott)
In Hawaii, Ige finally sees some real separation between himself and Aiona, after a handful of fall polls showed him with small leads. (Note that Ward's old July survey was taken long before Ige's stunning primary win, when he was still unknown.) Even though Hannemann is a former Democrat, given how conservative he is, it's not impossible that he's hurting Aiona.
After several polls in a row showed Quinn with a small advantage in Illinois, now he's back to trailing, though none of these surveys are from pollsters with established track records.
Hogan obviously wants to make the case that Maryland is another Massachusetts-in-waiting, but unlike fellow Republican Charlie Baker up in the Bay State, he doesn't have any backup from public polls. Then again, there are almost no public polls here. Boo.
Finally, this is the first poll to show Raimondo, like Ige, putting some distance between herself and her Republican opposition, but again, there's almost no data coming out of Rhode Island. In fact, Brown University's last poll was in October—of 2013.
House:
• VA-10: Here's one more example on how triage isn't forever (after the DSCC decided to circle back to KY-Sen, and also the much smaller examples of the DCCC returning to MI-01 and IL-13). The DCCC is reporting a $255,073 buy in Virginia's 10th district, after publicly cutting it loose two weeks ago. It's still only a fraction of the original multi-million dollar buy, though, and the NRCC is alleging it's just residual ads that couldn't be canceled.
• WV-02: Another interesting new data point in the constantly-evolving House battlefield is that both national committees are suddenly jumping into the GOP-held open seat in West Virginia's 2nd district with substantial (at least by West Virginia's cheap standards) buys. The DCCC is spending $250,000; the NRCC $570,000. It's a pretty reddish seat, but the Republican candidate, former Maryland state legislator Alex Mooney, may not be a good fit to hold it. Several prognosticators have taken greater notice of this race this week, and now, with both committees jumping it, it sounds like there may be some interesting but unreleased polling backing up that chatter.
• Polling:
• AR-04: Diamond State Consulting (R): Bruce Westerman (R): 46, James Lee Witt (D): 39 (conducted for AR GOP)
• CA-21: SurveyUSA: David Valadao (R-inc): 47, Amanda Renteria (D): 42 (Sept.: 56-37 Valadao)
• MI-11: Mitchell Research: Dave Trott (R): 47, Bobby McKenzie (D): 35
• NY-04: Siena: Kathleen Rice (D): 52, Bruce Blakeman (R): 42
Republicans must really have been spooked by that Talk Business/Hendrix College poll showing Westerman dropping down to a narrow 44-42 edge on Witt after holding a 14-point lead over the summer ... but boy is this a pretty weak response, especially for a district so red. So far, though, not a penny of outside money has come in, and with the airwaves crammed full of ads for the Senate and gubernatorial races, it would be hard to break through here. Still, as with the suddenly competitive 2nd District, things aren't looking the way they should for the Arkansas GOP.
And what a huge shift in CA-21! Democratic dropoff was always expected to be huge here, but perhaps things won't be so bad—or perhaps this is just a classic bizarre SurveyUSA gyration. You can drive yourself nuts trying to figure out SUSA's crosstabs, but what's especially odd here is that Renteria's seen sizable gains with the district's Hispanic majority, but even bigger gains with white voters. If the NRCC is worried here, they sure aren't acting like it, though the Chamber of Commerce did drop a quarter mil on Valadao's behalf earlier this month.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich stresses his independence while American Crossroads spends $191,000, almost certainly on another ad tying him to Obama.
• AR-Sen: Republican Tom Cotton continues going after Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor for his connections to Obama. Arkansas Horizon also spends $800,000 for the GOP.
• CO-Sen: Marco Rubio's PAC Reclaim America praises Republican Cory Gardner in bland conservative terms. Crossroads GPS also goes after Democratic Sen. Mark Udall on terrorism, as B-PAC spends $268,000 for the GOP. For Team Blue, FairShare Action spends $416,000.
• GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn's new spot stars her father, former Sen. Sam Nunn. Sam stresses his bipartisan record, while promoting Michelle as someone who would do the same thing. A recent PPP poll gave Sam Nunn a 54-20 favorable rating in the state, so he's not a bad surrogate.
• IA-Sen: The pro-GOP U.S. Chamber of Commerce has usually produced decent ads starring a red state-friendly celebrity (see their KY-Sen one below). But this new one has one of the stupidest commercials I've seen in a very long time. It stars a chicken and hits Democrat Bruce Braley with something called "the chicken dance." It's hard to describe it: This is an ad you just have to see to believe.
On the other side, NextGen Climate spends $147,000. Presumably, none of that money went to the chicken dance.
• KS-Sen: Freedom Partners (here and here) continues to argue that a vote for independent Greg Orman is a vote for Obama. Orman's spot continues to stress his independence from party politics, while the Committee to Elect An Independent Senate spends another $414,000 on his behalf.
• KY-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce stars country music star Randy Owen praising Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell.
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu goes after Republican Bill Cassidy for voting against the Violence Against Women Act.
• MI-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends another $816,000 against Republican Terri Lynn Land.
• NC-Sen: Americans for Responsible Solutions spends another $274,000 for Team Blue.
• NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen stresses her work helping small businesses, while casting Republican Scott Brown as an ally of big money. On the GOP side, the misleadingly named Independent Leadership for New Hampshire spends $280,000.
• SD-Sen: All three sides have spots out. For Team Blue, Every Voice Action continues going after Republican Mike Rounds on EB-5 and spending $434,000. For the GOP, the Rounds argues that Democrat Rick Weiland won't protect a local air force base while he will.
Independent Larry Pressler touts his bipartisanship. He's also finally getting some air support from a group called Former Staffers of Larry Pressler; in a world filled with vaguely named PACs, it's nice to have one that is exactly what is says on the tin. They are spending $200,000.
• NRSC: GOP expenditures.
• Senate Majority PAC: Democratic expenditures.
• CO-Gov: Republican Bob Beauprez attacks Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper on public safety.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP blames Charlie Crist for the jobs crisis during his governorship.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn goes positive, featuring military families praising him for coming unannounced to the funerals for fallen Illinois soldiers.
• MA-Gov: Republican Charlie Baker goes positive in Spanish.
• MD-Gov: The DGA has been spending in this unexpectedly competitive contest, and for the first time the RGA is joining in. Their new ad argues that Democrat Anthony Brown would just continue Gov. Martin O'Malley's tax-loving administration. The size of the buy is $500,000. The DGA fires back, hitting Republican Larry Hogan's economic plan.
• ME-Gov: Democrat Mike Michaud continues to run as a consensus-builder.
• MI-Gov: The DGA continues to portray Republican Gov. Rick Snyder as someone who raises taxes on the most vulnerable citizens.
• RI-Gov: Republican Allan Fung stresses his work turning around the city of Cranston.
• WI-Gov: Wisconsin Manufacturers goes after Democrat Mary Burke's jobs record.
• AR-04: Democrat James Lee Witt describes himself as a bipartisan problem solver.
• AZ-01: House Majority PAC spends $290,000 hitting Republican Andy Tobin on abortion. Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick also argues that Tobin doesn't stand up for the middle class.
• AZ-09: The National Association of Realtors spends $245,000 for the Democrats.
• FL-02: Democrat Gwen Graham (here and here) stakes out a middle ground on Obamacare and accuses Republican Rep. Steve Southerland is a threat to Medicare.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy runs his 3,678,645th positive ad (give or take).
• HI-01: Working Families for Hawaii spends $144,000 for the Democrats.
• MA-06: American Unity PAC spends $897,000 for the GOP.
• WV-02: We have dueling ads in this open seat race. On the Democratic side, Nick Casey continues to go after Republican Alex Mooney's carpetbagging ways. He features Sue Hecht, a former member of the Maryland House of Delegates, who tells the audience, "I had the misfortune of serving with Alex Mooney in the Maryland state legislature." She describes Mooney as an ineffective partisan who got booted from office and fired as chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. Mooney's spot features Mike Huckabee, who describes this as a race between a liberal and a reliable conservative.
• WV-03: CounterPAC hits Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall as a hypocrite when it comes to outside spending. The group is throwing down $212,000.
• DCCC: Democratic expenditures.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.